- Mar 25, 2019
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We'll be taking Dean and Ison and possibly a pick ahead of them if we can trade up without compromising our points to match.
Next year's draft will be a lot stronger than this one. A lot stronger.
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Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II
- Thread starter Aphrodite
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Next year's draft will be a lot stronger than this one. A lot stronger.
Need to line up a club willing to give up a future picks as what we have for this year is in excess of what we need for Dean and Ison
Need to look at the clubs that have home grown talent that they need points for!
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Disagree, there'd be 5-8 that would be in that discussion (assuming we're counting academy kids). I'd personally tick off 6.
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Polo
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- Sep 19, 2008
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I apologise if something similar has been posted already and I've missed it but I was bored so have made a table with data on what a bid on Dean at each pick would cost us (if my math is right) in the theoretical case we didn't trade and kept our current picks 9, 11 and 43 through the draft, along with what would happen if/when 1-3 academy bids came in before the Dean bid.
In an interesting quirk, we'd be better off if a bid came in between our first two picks rather than picking him with our own second as we'd get a later pick back which would then come in as other clubs spend multiple picks to match bids after Dean.
In an interesting quirk, we'd be better off if a bid came in between our first two picks rather than picking him with our own second as we'd get a later pick back which would then come in as other clubs spend multiple picks to match bids after Dean.
Pick | Points | Bid Match | 0 Academy Bids | 1 Academy Bid | 2 Academy Bids | 3 Academy Bids |
1 | 3000 | 2700 | Picks 9, 11, 43 + pick 52 back | | | |
2 | 2481 | 2232 | Picks 9, 11 + pick 36 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 43 back | | |
3 | 2178 | 1960 | Picks 9, 11 + pick 25 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 30 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 36 back | |
4 | 1962 | 1765 | Picks 9, 11 + pick 20 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 24 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 28 back | Picks 12, 14 + pick 33 back |
5 | 1795 | 1615 | Picks 9, 11 + pick 16 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 19 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 23 back | Picks 12, 14 + pick 27 back |
6 | 1659 | 1493 | Picks 9, 11 + pick 14 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 17 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 20 back | Picks 12, 14 + pick 23 back |
7 | 1543 | 1388 | Picks 9, 11 + pick 12 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 14 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 17 back | Picks 12, 14 + pick 20 back |
8 | 1443 | 1298 | Pick 9 + pick 51 back | Picks 10, 12 + pick 13 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 15 back | Picks 12, 14 + pick 17 back |
9 | 1355 | 1219 | Pick 9 | Pick 10 + pick 51 back | Picks 11, 13 + pick 14 back | Picks 12, 14 + pick 16 back |
10 | 1276 | 1148 | Pick 11 + pick 51 back | Pick 10 | Pick 11 + pick 51 back | Picks 12 + 14 + pick 15 back |
11 | 1205 | 1084 | Pick 11 | Pick 12 + pick 52 back | Pick 11 | Pick 12 + pick 52 back |
12 | 1140 | 1026 | | Pick 12 | Pick 13 + pick 52 back | Pick 12 |
13 | 1080 | 972 | | | Pick 13 | Pick 14 + pick 52 back |
14 | 1024 | 921 | | | | Pick 14 |
Probably need a bit of context in the discussion I had.
The top end is very good (top3), not elite. The bottom end is extremely poor. The issue is that the middle road player this year has not been up against good even talent, it's been poor. It has made them look better than they really are. Clubs were told to sell this year's picks for next year unless they have academy kids playing within themselves (which there are).
The step up to AFL level is a bridge too far for most this year.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
What are the other bids in your estimations? Are you correctly adding and deleting the picks involved in those being matched?
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Top 3, probably right, but Uwland and Patterson are very good players, and Robey's ceiling is massive.
Outside of that, I'm including Annable, Sharp, Cumming. Happy with the idea you get a potential star in this draft from any name in the top 35 (including those we don't have access to), just not as long a list once you match that up with our needs.
Polo
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In most draft rankings I've seen Uwland, Patterson and Annable are ahead of Dean, the rest of the columns are there as data that I thought was interesting. I have accounted for our picks being pushed back in the table, if Dean was bid on at pick 6 and there was theoretically only one academy bid before we had to match we'd be spending picks 10 and 12 while getting pick 17 back, if there was 3 academy bids before we had to match we'd be spending picks 12 and 14 while getting pick 23 back.
If you're asking about the pick we'd be getting back I believe that pick would be the equivalent value of those left over points at the time of the bid regardless of how many picks were added or deleted before the bid was made (could be wrong here). Then that pick would come in (or get pushed out if the pick is earlier) as other clubs match their bids.
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- Jun 4, 2016
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lol you'd think someone working in the industry would be wiser than making such foolish absolute statements. Most in it I know are quite high on some and everyone 'we'll have to wait and see won't we' whenever comparisons to other years are raised....
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He simply won't be
Blues, Suns or Saints? 'Hardest decision' looms for young gun
Sunny Lappin is a player in demand ahead of December's Telstra AFLW Draft
www.afl.com.au
These comments are made when media and ‘trying to keep the AFL happy’, are made, you should know better than that sky horse!!
The big issue is the drafts are getting weaker and weaker each year, not solute if the ‘people me’ you know are of the same opinion, just saying!
I think it’s unlikely that he goes that high.
But also, McGowan has always rated Dean. He was onto him before the other draft experts.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
It's not of huge consequence right now given the draft hand, but picks 43 and 54 move up fairly significantly as Brisbane and Gold Coast's picks disappear. Perhaps even pick 67 come the time for an Ison bid.
- Aug 16, 2015
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At what stage do you think we or other clubs draw the line?
- Aug 16, 2015
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I know you take a keen interest in the draft and know your points system, is there someone in the 10-20 range we could take instead of trading up ahead of the Dean pick? I have been banging on about a small forward but in your opinion, is there anyone in that range we could trade our picks down, banking future picks and still grab an extra player?
If we trade our picks down, we’re not getting an extra player in that range.
Our real options at this stage to get a 2nd top 20 player are to live trade up ahead of a Dean bid (Essendon’s 2nd pick being the obvious choice currently) with points coming back, or, matching a bid with with #9, and taking a second player with wherever #11 slides to.
- Mar 25, 2019
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Probably if he got bid on at 1, which I highly doubt will happen.
I don't think it's worth shifting positions for a small forward this year and really not many others outside the top 10-12 range interest me much. Dovaston clearly the best of the lot but I don't think he's a high enough talent to worry about potentially missing out on other prospects for.
Next year has Butler, Neocleous, Prasad and others who already project as far better prospects imo.
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Great work Polo. Just shows us we don’t need to do anything. He’ll probably be drafted at around 6-10 at best!
Polo
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Agreed, Ison wasn't a part of my original exercise but given the scenario we keep all our current assets unless he makes it into the mid 30s it's likely that we will probably need both of those picks you listed to match a bid even after they come in via other clubs matching their bids.
This is why I think it might be difficult to trade up or out of this year into 2026 given the reported shallowness of this draft and the premium that will be placed on anything better than what we already have. In most logical scenarios (Dean bid comes between 6-10 and after 3 other academy bids) we have somewhere around pick 15-23 worth of leftover assets unless another club is willing to roll the dice on one of our 2027 firsts. Any trade we did to get ahead of Dean would then have to also leave us with enough points to match both Dean and Ison. Last year it would have been much easier but I think the AFL has actually done a pretty good job at making it difficult for clubs to both match bids on highly rated players and also get other significant draft assets in.
Essendon with something like 9 and 11 for 6, 21 and 30 is probably the only thing that might work for us (If they're interested and Dean is still available at their second pick), they also need later picks to match NGA players as well though so I'm not sure they'd do it unless they found a way to get other assets in. All this theory crafting goes out the window as soon as any trade of our existing assets is made, either way I am looking forward to seeing what happens.
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Well done!
Shows us we shouldn’t be talking about trading up exercises.
For mine there should be three academy bids prior to Dean’s, putting his most likely bid at #9+. This would give us a free hit at a second pick in the teens.
For those concerned with an Ison bid, there will be a small corridor of uncertainty between where our second current pick sits after bids and about pick #25 where we may experience a deficit due to an Ison bid. Thereafter the compression due to academy picks belonging to Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sydney and Essendon eating up 8-10 picks, bringing our #43 and #54 in by significant numbers. Likely there will be some activity by Gold Coast in particular to acquire as many points as they can prior to the draft. While Ison has had some spruiking that he may end up in the first round, the much higher likelihood is that he will be #25 plus, potentially much lower.
There is usually a “discount” due to academy and father/son kids not being bid on early by most clubs. The perfect outcome sees a slightly later bid for Dean returning us a pick/points as a carry over leading to subsequent bids being completely covered by our accumulated points.
A little rider is that it becomes difficult to sign a DFA prospect prior to the draft. Pretty sure we can’t utilise more picks than we have list vacancies, so we probably need to wait for the later DFA period or SSP to nab the KPD type we likely need.
Thinking our list management team have done well. Giving us the collateral for three live picks at the draft, which almost certainly include Dean and Ison. (Likely nab another as a rookie/SSP)
Sadly, this means McGovern, E.Hollands, F.Young and White are delisted to accommodate numbers. The arrival of four trades who can play forward and wing somewhat closes the door on Young and White. Think McGovern’s best chance is being delisted then rookied as tall(ish) cover.
- Aug 16, 2015
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Cool, what about any players in the 10-20 range that you like?
I’m hoping the club doesn’t use assets to trade up and would rather us trade down for points or future points and take a player in the 10-20 range.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
That table doesn't rule out trading up inherently, nor will we only delist from that list of players. Club is still trying to figure out interest in Dean and Ison, as well as pick trade options.
Can't see why we'd keep Binns after grabbing another two wingers and Ainsworth, especially with Ison coming in.
- Mar 25, 2019
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Depending on where they go (lots of varied rankings amongst them)
Josh Lindsay
Louis Emmett
Oskar Taylor
Jacob Farrow
Max Kondogiannis (will go more towards the 30s though)
Lattrell Sumner Pickett (same as above)
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