Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Timothy Luncheon]

No one thinks that, but the heavy lifting is certainly done. We bit the bullet last year and traded out multiple contracted, high trade value assets and brought in 7 kids inside 30 in a supposed super draft including six 1st rounders, plus two more top 10s this year. We will have an early pick in 2026 too. Minimum 9 1st round picks in 3 years is pretty extraordinary, and we already had a few quality youngsters to go with them. Of course there will be setbacks, there already has been some.

No one has had the suite of early picks we had last year bar the expansion clubs, and we still managed to hold on to a valuable core of older players who are still contributing.

Funnily enough it's only Eagles fans who criticise and doubt our rebuild strategy and I'm sure when it comes down to it, that comes from a place of jealousy if they're being honest. I mean it's polar opposite to bringing in Owies, Macrae, Graham, Robertson types to try pinch a pointless extra win or two. Every other fan base (bar some RFC hating Geelong nuffs) and the experts rate it.

It's certainly pretty sad that it's only really Eagles fans and one or two Geelong ones that want to be all doom and gloom about or rebuild, contrary to everyone else. I mean, whew, it has gotta suck wanting to always bring a team down because their own one has been struggling. It's nice that most rational afl fans don't have that same mindset though and it's just a few people in here. I'm quite happy with how we're traveling, which seems to be illegal according to a few.

 

[Shueygod]

Taking the average median is far better to evaluate it, and it's not just some poster, as I asked him for the sheet he calculated it on and compared a couple weeks of rounds to his data and it was accurate. Just the method is different.

Lol, was your injury list as big as Essendon's like ours was? Clarke alone would've replaced McIntosh and brought the average age down far more. But not to worry, McIntosh is gone now so a youngster will be in his place anyway. So yes, we probably will have either a lower average age, or a lower median age again. All while having good veterans leading the youngsters. Good times

Not necessarily, the two should realistically be used in conjunction. Neither being “better” than the other realistically. Stating differently suggests a lack of knowledge regarding statistics.

Games played under 25 as of 31 Dec
Eagles - 311
Richmond - 299

Games played under 23 as of 31 Dec
Eagles - 253
Richmond - 222

As well as a significantly lower average age, are probably better indicators than solely the median.

 

[Timothy Luncheon]

Not necessarily, the two should realistically be used in conjunction. Neither being “better” than the other realistically. Stating differently suggests a lack of knowledge regarding statistics.

Games played under 25 as of 31 Dec
Eagles - 311
Richmond - 299

Games played under 23 as of 31 Dec
Eagles - 253
Richmond - 222

As well as a significantly lower average age, are probably better indicators than solely the median.

Damn we had that many games played despite all the injuries? Hell yeah, that's fantastic. Thanks for the stats as they look good when used with median and mean together as you say, plus player ratings and all the likes. Looking forward to what more they can show with a full run at it hopefully with more comfortability with Serpell's methods

 

[Rich01]

So Richmond have had 4 drafts then.

If we want to be realistic eagles have been rebuilding since the 22 draft, and Richmond have been rebuilding since the 23 draft.

So you are saying we get a draft handout next year? Do we have to beg like you guys did?

 

[Shueygod]

So you are saying we get a draft handout next year? Do we have to beg like you guys did?

I imagine Richmond will ask for a draft handout at some point yes, likely end of 2027.

Don’t waste the pick in the 20s when you get it.

 

[tiger_tough]

I imagine Richmond will ask for a draft handout at some point yes, likely end of 2027.

Don’t waste the pick in the 20s when you get it.

Doubt they'd give us any assistance in 2027 having just qualified for finals.....

 

[Rich01]

I imagine Richmond will ask for a draft handout at some point yes, likely end of 2027.

Don’t waste the pick in the 20s when you get it.

Yep, thought you guys burnt yours. With 16, 22 and 23 as well as the Ryan pick, you really should have taken advantage of Carlton’s need to offload pick 9 and 11.

Sharp and Dovaston in addition to your first two picks would have been the smart move.

But like Baler the last year, it seems West Coast overpaid for an uncontracted player in Starcevich.

 

[Rich01]

Started the rebuild in 2020 did we?

Richmond must be 4 years in.

When did the rebuild begin? Was it when you split pick 2 and got Ginbey and Hewitt instead of Sheezel? Or was it the next year when you got Harley?

I’d say it’s 4 drafts ago in 2022.
Richmond’s rebuild began in 2024 when they went all in and picked 7 first rounders.

It’s pretty clear.

 

[Shueygod]

Yep, thought you guys burnt yours. With 16, 22 and 23 as well as the Ryan pick, you really should have taken advantage of Carlton’s need to offload pick 9 and 11.

Sharp and Dovaston in addition to your first two picks would have been the smart move.

But like Baler the last year, it seems West Coast overpaid for an uncontracted player in Starcevich.

We could have gotten one of those picks, not both considering Carlton got what ended up being more than that.

We also had to trade for Starcevich and couldn’t have got him through another avenue, unless we wanted to dilute the Allen compo.

If the net result is Lindsay and Starcevich vs Dovaston/Sharp I’m pretty content with that.

 

[Shueygod]

When did the rebuild begin? Was it when you split pick 2 and got Ginbey and Hewitt instead of Sheezel? Or was it the next year when you got Harley?

I’d say it’s 4 drafts ago in 2022.
Richmond’s rebuild began in 2024 when they went all in and picked 7 first rounders.

It’s pretty clear.

I agree, although I think it can be argued Richmond’s started in 2023. The original poster claimed it started in 2020. I merely was pointing out how the Eagles finished above Richmond in 2021.

 

[Rich01]

I agree, although I think it can be argued Richmond’s started in 2023. The original poster claimed it started in 2020. I merely was pointing out how the Eagles finished above Richmond in 2021.

I’m happy to listen to your argument about Richmond starting in 2023.
Because a rebuild is all about investing in the draft.

Go ahead…

 

[Shueygod]

I’m happy to listen to your argument about Richmond starting in 2023.
Because a rebuild is all about investing in the draft.

Go ahead…

I mean, could it then be argued that last year Eagles didn’t invest in the draft and thus weren’t rebuilding?

I think the 2023 offseason Richmond officials knew that they weren’t a chance for finals, that to me constitutes a rebuild.

 

[EagleMan87]

Considering Eagles had required players Allen, Barass, Ryan, Chesser and Darling leave in the last two year I think that’s probably on par with the Richmond ‘exodus’

You're seriously comparing Baker, Bolton and Rioli to them?!

 

[Shueygod]

You're seriously comparing Baker, Bolton and Rioli to them?!

4/5 got pushed as evidenced by eagles offering unders in either length/money on their contracts. “Required players”.

 

[Rich01]

I mean, could it then be argued that last year Eagles didn’t invest in the draft and thus weren’t rebuilding?

Nice one.

What a waste of time arguing with someone who just doesn’t want to have a rational discussion.

 

[Shueygod]

I Nice one.

What a waste of time arguing with someone who just doesn’t want to have a rational discussion.

You’re going to ignore the rest of my post?

It’s pretty simple, did the eagles invest in the draft last year? Answer: no

Thus can a rebuild solely be defined as investing in the draft? Answer:no

We obviously have different definitions of rebuilding, I think if you aren’t a chance for finals youre in a rebuild. At the end of 2023 I believe Richmond fit that criteria.

 

[Rich01]

You’re going to ignore the rest of my post?

It’s pretty simple, did the eagles invest in the draft last year? Answer: no

Thus can a rebuild solely be defined as investing in the draft? Answer:no

We obviously have different definitions of rebuilding, I think if you aren’t a chance for finals youre in a rebuild. At the end of 2023 I believe Richmond fit that criteria.

Laughable some of the claims you’ve made in the last two days.

West Coast weren’t rebuilding in 2024.

Richmond aren’t committed to a rebuild because they refused to gift Kaleb Smith games on the wing in 2025.

There’s trolling. Then there’s idiocy.

 

[Shueygod]

Laughable some of the claims you’ve made in the last two days.

West Coast weren’t rebuilding in 2024.

This is not a claim I’ve made, it’s an example of how a rebuild can’t be strictly defined by your criteria.

Believing I was claiming this is a severe lack of comprehension on your behalf.

Regardless of when Richmond’s rebuild “started”, they haven’t been in flag contention since 2020, same as the eagles.

 

[Rich01]

You’re going to ignore the rest of my post?

It’s pretty simple, did the eagles invest in the draft last year? Answer: no

Tell me how West Coast didn’t invest in the draft in 2024. Only one club picked more players.

 

[Shueygod]

Tell me how West Coast didn’t invest in the draft in 2024. Only one club picked more players.

They lessened their draft assets from their original hand, that’s the opposite of investing.

 

[Rich01]

They lessened their draft assets from their original hand, that’s the opposite of investing.

Edit: don’t worry I have my answer re: trolling vs idiocy,

 

[Shueygod]

So they divested from that draft to another draft? Or reinvested picks from the draft back into the current one?

Explain.

Explain how they “invested” in a draft and ended up with a worse draft hand than they started with?

You can’t, because they didn’t invest in the 2024 draft.

I don’t know why you’re arguing this, we simply have different definitions of rebuild.

 

[Rich01]

I don’t know why you’re arguing this,

Agree. See my previous post.

 

[LeBronco]

Since when does a true rebuild = being as shit as humanely possible?

Its also a silly story to tell given WC's desperation to trade in experience which kinda outs your opinion as another loss.

West Coast had to trade in experience because their senior players all hit the wall around the same time. The supporters blame travel but Fremantle veterans such as Pavlich and Mundy played good footy well into their 30s.

 

[THE_GUN]

West Coast had to trade in experience because their senior players all hit the wall around the same time. The supporters blame travel but Fremantle veterans such as Pavlich and Mundy played good footy well into their 30s.

In 33 years interstate teams have won 14 premierships
Looks like travel really is not that much of a factor