Analysis 2026 - The Way Forward

[Kiama Chris]

Not one of the great articles but right down the bottom it has a list of the number of goals kicked by each club.

List analysis: Which club has the most goalkicking firepower?

Who has kicked 100-plus career goals, and who has booted 50-plus in a season before?

www.afl.com.au

Our average was 11.5, highest was the Dogs at 16, next Geelong at 15.4. So to make a real crack at it we need to kick an additional 4 goals per match. What might that look like? It needs to be 372 for the H&A season to hit 15.5:
Curnow 65
McDonald 45
McLean 25 maybe Amartey?
Heeney 30
Papley 35
Warner 25
Rosas 20
Others 55
Total 300 ÷ 24
AVG 12.5
Still well short, same as Freo. Brisbane were 13.1.
Maybe this says we need to play three goal kicking talls or we need more from individuals, especially that "Others" bloke.
Another jigsaw puzzle piece.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Not one of the great articles but right down the bottom it has a list of the number of goals kicked by each club.

List analysis: Which club has the most goalkicking firepower?

Who has kicked 100-plus career goals, and who has booted 50-plus in a season before?

www.afl.com.au

Our average was 11.5, highest was the Dogs at 16, next Geelong at 15.4. So to make a real crack at it we need to kick an additional 4 goals per match. What might that look like? It needs to be 372 for the H&A season to hit 15.5:

Curnow 65

McDonald 45

McLean 25 maybe Amartey?

Heeney 30

Papley 35

Warner 25

Rosas 20

Others 55

Total 300 ÷ 24

AVG 12.5

Still well short, same as Freo. Brisbane were 13.1.

Maybe this says we need to play three goal kicking talls or we need more from individuals, especially that "Others" bloke.

I got to wondering some more.
For comparison our 2025 goal kickers:
Heeney 37
Hayward 29
McLean 25
Warner 20
Campbell 16
Amartey 13
Buller 11
Blakey 10
Papley 10
Jordon 10
Rowbottom 9
McInerney 8
Corey 8
Lloyd 7
Grundy 7
Ladhams 7
Hanily 6
Gulden 6
Sheldrick 6
Hamling 5
Francis 3
McCartin 3
Mills 2
Florent 2
Bice 1
Cleary 1
Roberts 1
Adams 1
So the unnamed "Others" above, including Amartey but not Hayward or Buller (assume they are replaced by Logan) totalled 132 goals. Much better than my assumption of 55!
That would lead to a revised total of 377 goals ie bang on the money to hit 15.7 per game which should be good enough to make top 4.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

The way forward is clever drafting of some hidden gems in the 2026 draft & a bit of prudent trading.

I’d reveal all the Swans’ secret 2026 draft & trade plans, but alas, there isn’t a suitable thread to do so.

 

[Kiama Chris]

The way forward is clever drafting of some hidden gems in the 2026 draft & a bit of prudent trading.

I’d reveal all the Swans’ secret 2026 draft & trade plans, but alas, there isn’t a suitable thread to do so.

Given that we spent all our high end trade capital on Curnow I'd say that's pretty obvious.
Our 2026 OOCs aren't likely to yield substantial benefit even if we were inclined.
We may get nothing high end out of the Academy if McGroder sticks with athletics and Macartney (sic) picks norf.
Could be very quiet indeed.

 

[rustycrate]

Given that we spent all our high end trade capital on Curnow I'd say that's pretty obvious.
Our 2026 OOCs aren't likely to yield substantial benefit even if we were inclined.
We may get nothing high end out of the Academy if McGroder sticks with athletics and Macartney (sic) picks norf.
Could be very quiet indeed.

Maybe it was a win win getting Curnow.

We are signed up to the limit until the end of 2027 mostly. Not much room to move.

The Aademy players in 2026 and 2027 will soak up those 2nds and thirds that were left after the Curnow trade.

Our 2027 draft hand is not that bad considering. We traded out our 1st but we still have Carltons 2nd. Like a 10-12 pick downgrade I reckon.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Maybe it was a win win getting Curnow.

We are signed up to the limit until the end of 2027 mostly. Not much room to move.

The Aademy players in 2026 and 2027 will soak up those 2nds and thirds that were left after the Curnow trade.

Our 2027 draft hand is not that bad considering. We traded out our 1st but we still have Carltons 2nd. Like a 10-12 pick downgrade I reckon.

Maybe so. If Curnow stays healthy and plays near full capability he will be a great get. He certainly appears to be taking it seriously.
Our backups are not stars but are decent.
Last year was a 3 way aberration (GF loss, injuries, new coach).
We (in this case the northern clubs) can watch Tasmania pick the eyes out of the non-tied draft and presumably use some of those picks to make good trades as well.
While 2026 could either be terrific or not much 2027 looks pretty decent at this stage.

 

[rustycrate]

Maybe so. If Curnow stays healthy and plays near full capability he will be a great get. He certainly appears to be taking it seriously.
Our backups are not stars but are decent.
Last year was a 3 way aberration (GF loss, injuries, new coach).
We (in this case the northern clubs) can watch Tasmania pick the eyes out of the non-tied draft and presumably use some of those picks to make good trades as well.
While 2026 could either be terrific or not much 2027 looks pretty decent at this stage.

I wasn't a fan of the Curnow trade. Not at all.
But I've come to accept it. Even embrace it.
That's not like me.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I wasn't a fan of the Curnow trade. Not at all.
But I've come to accept it. Even embrace it.
That's not like me.

100% me too. Had it been two years earlier I might have felt a lot different. But as the lady said "when it's inevitable, lie back and think of England!". My biggest issues are cost per season, will he bring others into the game (unlike at Carlton) and what happens if/when the going gets tough?
I was and remain stoked about Grundy, Jordon and Hamling. Fantastic value. Unlucky with Adams but it might have been OK.
This year's crop remain to be tested but I'm super hopeful. Even if a couple dud out (except Curnow) we will still have done well.

 

[caesar88]

I'm extremely worried about the culture of our team.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I'm extremely worried about the culture of our team.

What are you seeing or not seeing that leads you to feel that way? Or hearing?

 

[caesar88]

What are you seeing or not seeing that leads you to feel that way? Or hearing?

I don't think I need to re-litigate at least half of the autopsy threads from the last five or so years. Our issues of mind & ticker have been well-documented and discussed ad nauseam.

The grand final humiliations, the second-half capitulations, the wins in one quarter of footy or sometimes even less, the horror losses to teams we shouldn't be losing to, the increasingly-common games where we're just completely uncompetitive, the inability to stop momentum, the lack of pressure from our players, their inability to produce second efforts, the selective work rate and willingness to defend, the way that selective work rate and willingness to defend in many cases gets rewarded, the lack of quality leaders, etc.

What worries me most is my gut feel (which means I could be wrong) that the people at the top, including the coach, don't even realise what an issue the culture of our team is. Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

 

[SSwans2011]

Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

Genuine question — what actions could we have taken to alleviate these concerns?

 

[caesar88]

Genuine question — what actions could we have taken to alleviate these concerns?

Not creating dissent amongst the playing group?? LOL

 

[Kiama Chris]

What do you think we did wrong during trade (or draft)?
If I was to guess generically:
1) Trade out more players who go to water.
2) Trade in different players based more on character eg not Curnow or Rosas Jr. Serong is OK.
3) Draft a tough inside mid rather than someone like King or Chamberlain for instance.
4) Find a stronger coach or two than those we did.
5) Improve our leadership stocks SOMEHOW.
I'm not being sarcastic by the way, I'm trying to get to the basis of what you think might have improved our prospects.
There's no doubt in my mind that the occurrences you described are 90%+ in the head and probably default to leadership in some way. I think back to many of the individual actions in the 2012 GF eg by Hannebery, Mattner, Morton and Goodes that lifted their teammates and ultimately made a huge difference. Heeney and Papley in the 2024 PF. These things need to happen but others need to climb aboard, like Amartey did that day.
Geelong fell apart against Brisbane exactly the same as we did, probably for a similar reason - IMO the bottom half of both our midfields was not a match for theirs. Adelaide same problem.
So perhaps 2) it is?

 

[SSwans2011]

Not creating dissent amongst the playing group?? LOL

Do we have any evidence of there actually being dissent amongst the playing group?

Also, if the culture issues keep manifesting on-field, what steps can we take to fix them without running the risk of upsetting the playing group?

 

[caesar88]

Do we have any evidence of there actually being dissent amongst the playing group?

Also, if the culture issues keep manifesting on-field, what steps can we take to fix them without running the risk of upsetting the playing group?

I don't pretend to have the answers. Cox & co should have them. It is their job.

But somehow I don't think attempting to trade 50% of the Best Clubman winners on the list - and there were only four of them! - in the one off-season, and becoming the first Swans coach since 1998 to actually trade a Best Clubman winner, is the answer to a culture issue. Somehow, after a season in which you've struggled to get buy-in from your players, I don't think dropping bombs on the playing group whilst they're dispersed in various locations around the world is the answer to a culture issue.

I don't think you need a PhD in psychology to see this.

If Cox can't see the culture issues and have the ideas and solutions for how to fix them, then he is in the wrong job. Every team has issues that are unique to them, and ours is that we have a fragile and scarred playing group. In an ideal world we could just write them all off as damaged goods and replace them with newer, unburdened ones. But we can't. They're the playing group we've got and somehow have to forge ahead and win a flag with. So our coach has to meet the moment and remedy THAT issue.

Even more so than the issues of scoring, contested marking, whatever else he thinks is hampering our success on-field.

My best, unqualified guess is that it will require an emotional, holistic and nuanced approach, but from everything I've seen of Cox so far, he's into the tough stuff. A seven-hour review of the GF. Back-to-back time trials. Brutal taps on the shoulder. Plenty of "we need to train harder" rhetoric in press conferences. Public pursuits of contracted big fish.

It's all very loud and brash and commanding, but it's all just noise for me unless he has the sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors to mend the psyche of his players. Maybe he does and he just doesn't show it. Maybe it will take time to net results. If he rolls out a much steelier Swans team in 2026, I will be the first to praise him for it.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I don't pretend to have the answers. Cox & co should have them. It is their job.

But somehow I don't think attempting to trade 50% of the Best Clubman winners on the list - and there were only four of them! - in the one off-season, and becoming the first Swans coach since 1998 to actually trade a Best Clubman winner, is the answer to a culture issue. Somehow, after a season in which you've struggled to get buy-in from your players, I don't think dropping bombs on the playing group whilst they're dispersed in various locations around the world is the answer to a culture issue.

I don't think you need a PhD in psychology to see this.

If Cox can't see the culture issues and have the ideas and solutions for how to fix them, then he is in the wrong job. Every team has issues that are unique to them, and ours is that we have a fragile and scarred playing group. In an ideal world we could just write them all off as damaged goods and replace them with newer, unburdened ones. But we can't. They're the playing group we've got and somehow have to forge ahead and win a flag with. So our coach has to meet the moment and remedy THAT issue.

Even more so than the issues of scoring, contested marking, whatever else he thinks is hampering our success on-field.

My best, unqualified guess is that it will require an emotional, holistic and nuanced approach, but from everything I've seen of Cox so far, he's into the tough stuff. A seven-hour review of the GF. Back-to-back time trials. Brutal taps on the shoulder. Plenty of "we need to train harder" rhetoric in press conferences. Public pursuits of contracted big fish.

It's all very loud and brash and commanding, but it's all just noise for me unless he has the sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors to mend the psyche of his players. Maybe he does and he just doesn't show it. Maybe it will take time to net results. If he rolls out a much steelier Swans team in 2026, I will be the first to praise him for it.

I agree that trading out Florent & particularly Hayward would have upset some in the playing ranks. I can imagine a few weren’t happy.

And if (as whispered) Rowy was shopped around too with Cox’s blessing - even more so.

The counter to that is an argument that our playing group has become a bit too comfortable with each other & lacked a ruthless edge borne out of the knowledge that nobody has a guaranteed career-long place on the list.

This year is massive for Cox. A mediocre mid-table finish would have alarm bells ringing all over the place.

And it’s very possible.

 

[zyzzbruh]

I don't pretend to have the answers. Cox & co should have them. It is their job.

But somehow I don't think attempting to trade 50% of the Best Clubman winners on the list - and there were only four of them! - in the one off-season, and becoming the first Swans coach since 1998 to actually trade a Best Clubman winner, is the answer to a culture issue. Somehow, after a season in which you've struggled to get buy-in from your players, I don't think dropping bombs on the playing group whilst they're dispersed in various locations around the world is the answer to a culture issue.

I don't think you need a PhD in psychology to see this.

If Cox can't see the culture issues and have the ideas and solutions for how to fix them, then he is in the wrong job. Every team has issues that are unique to them, and ours is that we have a fragile and scarred playing group. In an ideal world we could just write them all off as damaged goods and replace them with newer, unburdened ones. But we can't. They're the playing group we've got and somehow have to forge ahead and win a flag with. So our coach has to meet the moment and remedy THAT issue.

Even more so than the issues of scoring, contested marking, whatever else he thinks is hampering our success on-field.

My best, unqualified guess is that it will require an emotional, holistic and nuanced approach, but from everything I've seen of Cox so far, he's into the tough stuff. A seven-hour review of the GF. Back-to-back time trials. Brutal taps on the shoulder. Plenty of "we need to train harder" rhetoric in press conferences. Public pursuits of contracted big fish.

It's all very loud and brash and commanding, but it's all just noise for me unless he has the sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors to mend the psyche of his players. Maybe he does and he just doesn't show it. Maybe it will take time to net results. If he rolls out a much steelier Swans team in 2026, I will be the first to praise him for it.

My thought on the dropping bombs whilst they were overseas is something we needed to do. I think a big culture issue we had was players being bum chums and overly comfortable with each other - imo that brings on a sense of complacency when things aren't going well.

Breaking them apart a bit will hopefully allow some individuals to refocus on just doing their job.

 

[SSwans2011]

I don't pretend to have the answers. Cox & co should have them. It is their job.

But somehow I don't think attempting to trade 50% of the Best Clubman winners on the list - and there were only four of them! - in the one off-season, and becoming the first Swans coach since 1998 to actually trade a Best Clubman winner, is the answer to a culture issue. Somehow, after a season in which you've struggled to get buy-in from your players, I don't think dropping bombs on the playing group whilst they're dispersed in various locations around the world is the answer to a culture issue.

I don't think you need a PhD in psychology to see this.

If Cox can't see the culture issues and have the ideas and solutions for how to fix them, then he is in the wrong job. Every team has issues that are unique to them, and ours is that we have a fragile and scarred playing group. In an ideal world we could just write them all off as damaged goods and replace them with newer, unburdened ones. But we can't. They're the playing group we've got and somehow have to forge ahead and win a flag with. So our coach has to meet the moment and remedy THAT issue.

Even more so than the issues of scoring, contested marking, whatever else he thinks is hampering our success on-field.

My best, unqualified guess is that it will require an emotional, holistic and nuanced approach, but from everything I've seen of Cox so far, he's into the tough stuff. A seven-hour review of the GF. Back-to-back time trials. Brutal taps on the shoulder. Plenty of "we need to train harder" rhetoric in press conferences. Public pursuits of contracted big fish.

It's all very loud and brash and commanding, but it's all just noise for me unless he has the sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors to mend the psyche of his players. Maybe he does and he just doesn't show it. Maybe it will take time to net results. If he rolls out a much steelier Swans team in 2026, I will be the first to praise him for it.

I don't personally agree with your prediction of the potential damage that has occurred from targeting Curnow and putting good clubmen on the table, but I appreciate the detailed answer.

From my standpoint, if the squad aren't prepared to take attempts to improve an underperforming playing squad in their stride, we don't have the right playing list to contend anyway. The Lions just let one of their best and most beloved clubmen leave for an extra $150k per year. You have to be prepared to make tough calls to contend and your playing list needs to be prepared to accept them.

I guess we will wait and see with Cox's player management capabilities, but the way they got around him after his first win as coach suggests to me he has more sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors than you're giving him credit for.

 

[caesar88]

I agree that trading out Florent & particularly Hayward would have upset some in the playing ranks. I can imagine a few weren’t happy.

And if (as whispered) Rowy was shopped around too with Cox’s blessing - even more so.

The counter to that is an argument that our playing group has become a bit too comfortable with each other & lacked a ruthless edge borne out of the knowledge that nobody has a guaranteed career-long place on the list.

This year is massive for Cox. A mediocre mid-table finish would have alarm bells ringing all over the place.

And it’s very possible.

My thought on the dropping bombs whilst they were overseas is something we needed to do. I think a big culture issue we had was players being bum chums and overly comfortable with each other - imo that brings on a sense of complacency when things aren't going well.

Breaking them apart a bit will hopefully allow some individuals to refocus on just doing their job.

I don't personally agree with your prediction of the potential damage that has occurred from targeting Curnow and putting good clubmen on the table, but I appreciate the detailed answer.

From my standpoint, if the squad aren't prepared to take attempts to improve an underperforming playing squad in their stride, we don't have the right playing list to contend anyway. The Lions just let one of their best and most beloved clubmen leave for an extra $150k. You have to be prepared to make tough calls to contend and your playing list needs to be prepared to accept them.

I guess we will wait and see with Cox's player management capabilities, but the way they got around him after his first win as coach suggests to me he has more sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors than you're giving him credit for.

Replying to all of these in one as they all kind of touch on the same sentiment of a kick up the arse being what the playing group needed and/or if they are tough enough, they will get over it.

I don't disagree with either sentiment. I just think our culture is fragile at the moment and Cox is a new coach trying to gain trust. I don't think it was the time to do it. Brisbane can afford to make tough calls as they seem to have a great team culture with an established and proven coach. One decision with negative ramifications here or there would barely be a dent to them. I don't believe we are in that same place as a club and as a playing list.

Again, if only it was as simple as "they just have to get over it!" But they're our playing list. We can't trade or delist a whole playing group. So there has to be a solution beyond just demanding they grow a pair and harden up.

Re the trade period specifically, I haven't heard or seen anything to suggest the players were upset about Florent and Hayward being put up for trade. Both were incredibly popular, but the players have lost popular teammates before (think Stephens, Hewett, Aliir, Parker, Fox etc.) I think we need to give the players some credit that they understand it is a business and just because someone is a great bloke, it doesn't mean they shouldn't be moved on if necessary.

The Rowbottom situation was a bit of a different one. Forget what I or anyone on here thinks of him as a player. This time last year, to the players he was rated as highly as anyone bar Heeney & Gulden, and certainly would've been seen as "untouchable" in a trade sense. One disappointing season later and he is being put on the trade table. The players know that disappointing seasons are inevitable, and they will all likely have one at some point in their careers. No player should have a guarantee of a career-long place on the list, but the players are entitled to think that when their turn comes, that their coach will show faith and belief in them, and help them get through it and back to their best. Not that their coach will simply give up on them and put them up for trade the first chance he gets. Yet that is effectively what they saw with Rowbottom. All action, no nuance. How can they trust that he won't do the same with them?

There is a reason they broke ranks to make public their frustrations with Lachlan McKirdy (albeit anonymously), not to mention a reason his name being mentioned provoked public backlash from club figures like Gerard Healy, Mark Knight, even Warwick Capper. It's not because of what a great and popular guy Rowy is. It's that it was seen as reckless and a big mistake and they did not agree with it from a footballing perspective. For a coach who already did not get the buy-in he was after (celebrating his first win because they like the guy does not equate to "buy-in" as far as I'm concerned), he doesn't need to be doing anything more to sow seeds of doubt or distrust with his players.

So I guess that is the long-winded version of where I'm really at, which is that ruthless is fine, just not what's needed at this moment in our club's history.

 

[McGowan3]

I don't think I need to re-litigate at least half of the autopsy threads from the last five or so years. Our issues of mind & ticker have been well-documented and discussed ad nauseam.

The grand final humiliations, the second-half capitulations, the wins in one quarter of footy or sometimes even less, the horror losses to teams we shouldn't be losing to, the increasingly-common games where we're just completely uncompetitive, the inability to stop momentum, the lack of pressure from our players, their inability to produce second efforts, the selective work rate and willingness to defend, the way that selective work rate and willingness to defend in many cases gets rewarded, the lack of quality leaders, etc.

What worries me most is my gut feel (which means I could be wrong) that the people at the top, including the coach, don't even realise what an issue the culture of our team is. Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

8 and 3 last 11 games

 

[caesar88]

8 and 3 last 11 games

Six of those eight wins were against 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th on the ladder.

 

[McGowan3]

Six of those eight wins were against 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th on the ladder.

And one v premiers away.

 

[caesar88]

And one v premiers away.

Brisbane laid 36 tackles that day. They were in second gear and we still would've bungled that game if it went on for another 20 seconds.

 

[McGowan3]

Brisbane laid 36 tackles that day. They were in second gear and we still would've bungled that game if it went on for another 20 seconds.

Let's see how it pans out. I'd rather be optimistic and hopeful.