Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[bzparkes]

If that is what you need to believe then you go right on believing that.

The rest of the footy world will just carry on recognising Richmond took an appreciably more valuable array of picks than Melbourne during the last 3 drafts.

And when you look at Melbourne's excellent haul in that period, it shows just how stunning Richmond's 2024 draft haul actually is.

It must be nice to be so positive for no reason.

 

[Shueygod]

If that is what you need to believe then you go right on believing that.

The rest of the footy world will just carry on recognising Richmond took an appreciably more valuable array of picks than Melbourne during the last 3 drafts.

And when you look at Melbourne's excellent haul in that period, it shows just how stunning Richmond's 2024 draft haul actually is.

It’s pretty accurate that there’s a lot more hype due to the majority coming in one draft.

Richmond’s picks in the period of 2022-2025 would likely be considered relatively standard (or slightly poor) for a rebuilding side if they were taken across the 4 drafts.

Tigers: 1, 7, 7, 8, 12, 14, 21, 23, 28, 31, 40, 43, 49, 54, 55, 58
North: 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 16, 20, 22, 23, 26, 26, 27, 48, 56, 57, 67
Eagles: 1, 1, 4, 9, 14, 16, 19, 23, 29, 29, 30, 30, 38, 39, 46, 48, 49, 58, 65

On face value everyone is comfortably taking the North and Eagles picks. I’d argue more of both Eagles and Norths picks have proven worth of their draft positions than Richmond’s (obviously predominantly due to having more time in the league to do so).

It’s impressive Richmond managed to get 3.5 drafts worth in the space of two.

However the flip side is that if Richmond come up a similar time to the Eagles (and North) due to getting the draftees in bulk as their fans believe they will, they’re going to miss out on the top end of drafts on the backend (and arguably will even if they don’t come up the same time due to Tassie coming in).

Richmond did brilliantly in a poor situation (starting the rebuild at a bad time with Tassie coming in).

Pick numbers obviously arent everything, but that is what a lot of the hype around Richmond is based on right now.

 

[ShereKhan]

Lynch played 16 games last year, at no point did he look as good as Waterman has recently.

If you were getting 2022 Lynch I’d agree, but even with a full season it simply won’t occur. Just like getting 2019 Yeo won’t happen with a full season.

The Yeo v Ross comparison is awful, peak Yeo and Lynch were similar levels (Lynch has done it more consistently and recently). Ross hasn’t gotten within a sniff of what Waterman has produced.

You don’t need to be great/elite to outperform Ross, based on recent performances you do to outperform Waterman.

You’re getting a bit carried away with Waterman’s single season. He cooked 53 goals and had just 7 goal assists. 60 goals and goal assists is a very good season. But it’s nothing great or elite.

 

[ShereKhan]

It’s pretty accurate that there’s a lot more hype due to the majority coming in one draft.

Richmond’s picks in the period of 2022-2025 would likely be considered relatively standard (or slightly poor) for a rebuilding side if they were taken across the 4 drafts.

Tigers: 1, 7, 7, 8, 12, 14, 21, 23, 28, 31, 40, 43, 49, 54, 55, 58
North: 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 16, 20, 22, 23, 26, 26, 27, 48, 56, 57, 67
Eagles: 1, 1, 4, 9, 14, 16, 19, 23, 29, 29, 30, 30, 38, 39, 46, 48, 49, 58, 65

On face value everyone is comfortably taking the North and Eagles picks. I’d argue more of both Eagles and Norths picks have proven worth of their draft positions than Richmond’s (obviously predominantly due to having more time in the league to do so).

It’s impressive Richmond managed to get 3.5 drafts worth in the space of two.

However the flip side is that if Richmond come up a similar time to the Eagles (and North) due to getting the draftees in bulk as their fans believe they will, they’re going to miss out on the top end of drafts on the backend (and arguably will even if they don’t come up the same time due to Tassie coming in).

Richmond did brilliantly in a poor situation (starting the rebuild at a bad time with Tassie coming in).

Pick numbers obviously arent everything, but that is what a lot of the hype around Richmond is based on right now.

Remind me again why the 5 x top-30 picks taken in 2021 … who are all still on the list and 4 of them likely to play round 1 …. have not been included ?

 

[ShereKhan]

Why does Mini need wins?

Quite confident we'll win more than one game this season without the retreads.

You completely ignored my point that it's about development. West coast aren't exactly a club whose numbers fall off when we're down the bottom of the ladder, after all.

If Mini wins 1-game again he’ll get sacked. That’s why he needs wins. 4+ wins with some obvious development (ala what Yze achieved in 2025) will keep the wolves at bay.

Less than 4 and he’ll be struggling to get to his third season. That’s just the reality.

I think the Eagles will win 4+ so I don’t think it’ll be an issue.

 

[ReturningHawk]

Remind me again why the 5 x top-30 picks taken in 2021 … who are all still on the list and 4 of them likely to play round 1 …. have not been included ?

You obviously don’t know how this works.

Shueygod will tell you because Richmond were not technically rebuilding in 2021 and therefore all draft capital gained is incidental rather than strategic to a rebuild and therefore shouldn’t be considered per se in this discussion and therefore by the way he’s won the argument.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

For all the 2025 draft was crap talk Duursma/CDT/Lindsay just looking like extremely good pickups

The logic that Richmond were better off hitting the 2024 draft then the 2025 probably wont ring true and it will be a much of muchness too it

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

You obviously don’t know how this works.

Shueygod will tell you because Richmond were not technically rebuilding in 2021 and therefore all draft capital gained is incidental rather than strategic to a rebuild and therefore shouldn’t be considered per se in this discussion and therefore by the way he’s won the argument.

Its 2026 and they arnt even rebuilding. Best 23 is still Dads Army

 

[Rich01]

For all the 2025 draft was crap talk Duursma/CDT/Lindsay just looking like extremely good pickups

The logic that Richmond were better off hitting the 2024 draft then the 2025 probably wont ring true and it will be a much of muchness too it

The top end of each draft is always strong. Your side would look even better with Jagga in it.

 

[ReturningHawk]

For all the 2025 draft was crap talk Duursma/CDT/Lindsay just looking like extremely good pickups

They are great pickups.

The logic that Richmond were better off hitting the 2024 draft then the 2025 probably wont ring true and it will be a much of muchness too it

In the end Richmond had two top 10 picks in 2025, hard to say that they didn’t hit the draft. I can’t see the sense of comparing how many draft picks you’ve had.

Richmond made progress in the W column in 2025, that’s why their 2024 strategy is being praised. Let’s see if they keep improving.

 

[wctorp]

The top end of each draft is always strong. Your side would look even better with Jagga in it.

Prefer Baker + Allan tbh

 

[Rich01]

Prefer Baker + Allan tbh

Fair, but you could have had both Baker and Jagga with some canny trading using the Barass pick.

Bo vs Jagga will be an interesting watch this year.

 

[wctorp]

Fair, but you could have had both Baker and Jagga with some canny trading using the Barass pick.

Bo vs Jagga will be an interesting watch this year.

You’ll have to explain this canny trading of yours in more detail

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The top end of each draft is always strong. Your side would look even better with Jagga in it.

We didn’t even interview Smith apparently. It was Langford we were going to take. Will need to see how Allan vs Langford plays out still

 

[wctorp]

Fair, but you could have had both Baker and Jagga with some canny trading using the Barass pick.

Bo vs Jagga will be an interesting watch this year.

You’ll have to explain this canny trading of yours in more detail

Hello, testing … is this thing on???

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It’s pretty accurate that there’s a lot more hype due to the majority coming in one draft.

Richmond’s picks in the period of 2022-2025 would likely be considered relatively standard (or slightly poor) for a rebuilding side if they were taken across the 4 drafts.

Tigers: 1, 7, 7, 8, 12, 14, 21, 23, 28, 31, 40, 43, 49, 54, 55, 58
North: 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 16, 20, 22, 23, 26, 26, 27, 48, 56, 57, 67
Eagles: 1, 1, 4, 9, 14, 16, 19, 23, 29, 29, 30, 30, 38, 39, 46, 48, 49, 58, 65

On face value everyone is comfortably taking the North and Eagles picks. I’d argue more of both Eagles and Norths picks have proven worth of their draft positions than Richmond’s (obviously predominantly due to having more time in the league to do so).

It’s impressive Richmond managed to get 3.5 drafts worth in the space of two.

However the flip side is that if Richmond come up a similar time to the Eagles (and North) due to getting the draftees in bulk as their fans believe they will, they’re going to miss out on the top end of drafts on the backend (and arguably will even if they don’t come up the same time due to Tassie coming in).

Richmond did brilliantly in a poor situation (starting the rebuild at a bad time with Tassie coming in).

Pick numbers obviously arent everything, but that is what a lot of the hype around Richmond is based on right now.

Pleased to see you make this broader comparison.

One of the issues for North that Richmond didn't have to deal with, was this really impressive draft haul is slightly deceptive. They lost a top 10 2018 pick Thomas to off field issues. Their 2020 pick 3 turned out to be virtually worthless for an almost total lack of talent becoming of a pick 3 available at the pick. They would have had to pick Max Holmes name out of a hat to get a player worthy of the pick, and without seeing the players play in 2020. And they also had to cash in 2021 pick 1 Horne-Francis to produce some of these picks.

Richmond cashed in players to produce their 2024 draft haul, but they were not high draft pick players, didn't play in key positions, and were all at least 26yo.

A subsequent post has pointed out as well you have chosen to start after Richmond's strong 2021 draft haul for your comparison.

But your theory in posting multiple years is right and shows how Richmond manages its list. They deliberately trade out of some drafts and into others according to which draft crops they rate the highest. 2017, 2021 & 2024 are known(or thought) to be strong drafts, and Richmond traded into all of those to take picks 1, 7, 9, 12, 14, 17, 17, 20, 21, 21, 23, 25, 28, 28, 29, 30, 34 in those drafts. By way of comparison all the other drafts combined(so 2018, 19, 20, 22, 23, 25) saw Richmond take only these top 35 picks:

7, 8, 20, 21, 31. And of course 3 of those were in the 2025 draft where they were able to secure picks 7 & 8 to get access to what look like high level players(3rd and 4th picks from the open pool, or 4th and 5th best Vic kids if you look at it that way.)

The Tigers were hamstrung in the strong 2019 draft for example due to winning the flag and having only lower value picks available, and naturally not wanting to trade out high value players.

But let's compare the value of the draft hauls just as you have presented them.

Richmond 2022-25 12,523 draft points.

North 2022-25 15,841 draft points.

Eagles 2022-25 14,957 draft points.


What I get from this. North have taken about pick 1 value more than Richmond across these 4 drafts. They got that value from losing their 2021 pick 1 in a trade. So you would say the two clubs come out of the 4 drafts roughly par for net young player value. Eagles come out with roughly pick 2 in value higher than Richmond over just these 4 drafts.

In 2021 Richmond added 3671 points(of players still on the list.). North added 1301 of players still on their list. And Eagles added 726 points.

So the 5 year comparison is:

Richmond 16,194
North 17,142
Eagles 15,683

All pretty similar really. So why are people in the industry talking so favourably about Richmond's draft picks in this period and not so much North's and Eagles? I think a couple of obvious reasons:

1) Richmond have not been cellar dwellers throughout this period. In fact they made finals in 2022 and got within a kick of progressing, and in 2023 finished comfortably above the bottom 4.

2) Richmond targetted what were seen as the rich pickings of the 2024 draft very strategically and basically came away with a future spine. 1 mid + 2 x mid-forwards, 2 x key forwards, 1 ruck/forward, 1 x key defender.

3) The players Richmond gave up to do this were older, not mids or key position players, and also left a very nice hole in the salary cap behind them, with Richmond paying zero salary to the gaining clubs.

What Richmond are doing looks obviously strategic and planned. What Eagles and north are doing looks - and probably this is only from the outside looking in - more haphazard and some of the moves seem forced rather than voluntary.

 

[Obeanie1]

Remind me again why the 5 x top-30 picks taken in 2021 … who are all still on the list and 4 of them likely to play round 1 …. have not been included ?

Because he didnt want to cause you any more embarrassment.

You guys had 5 cracks in that draft before Eagles took Bradly Hough at pick 31.

Enough said.

 

[Morro]

Because he didnt want to cause you any more embarrassment.

You guys had 5 cracks in that draft before Eagles took Bradly Hough at pick 31.

Enough said.

yeah we sure screwed up not taking the failed midfielder and one dimensional back pocket / best lock down defender in the league based on 9 x 1v1 contests.

Dang it

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Because he didnt want to cause you any more embarrassment.

You guys had 5 cracks in that draft before Eagles took Bradly Hough at pick 31.

Enough said.

Will be talked about for years to come how we took Josh Gibcus over Brady Sloth.

 

[Monsterdarlz]

early days yet but you would think both clubs would be banking on playing finals by 2029-2030

 

[Shueygod]

Remind me again why the 5 x top-30 picks taken in 2021 … who are all still on the list and 4 of them likely to play round 1 …. have not been included?

Because if we’re being honest the hype around Richmond’s rebuild isn’t based on them at all and their picks they were taken is largely irrelevant at this point. You can include them if you like and I’d still take both the Eagles and North picks, I did the eagles one for you below (North has had better picks (on number) than the eagles in that time).

The other reason is that in a redraft of 2021 a lot of the Richmond picks would have fallen dramatically, the same can’t be said of either Norths or WC’s picks in 2022-2023.

Pleased to see you make this broader comparison.

One of the issues for North that Richmond didn't have to deal with, was this really impressive draft haul is slightly deceptive. They lost a top 10 2018 pick Thomas to off field issues. Their 2020 pick 3 turned out to be virtually worthless for an almost total lack of talent becoming of a pick 3 available at the pick. They would have had to pick Max Holmes name out of a hat to get a player worthy of the pick, and without seeing the players play in 2020. And they also had to cash in 2021 pick 1 Horne-Francis to produce some of these picks.

This is all pretty irrelevant to my post, given none of the players they lost were part of this impressive draft haul.

Richmond cashed in players to produce their 2024 draft haul, but they were not high draft pick players, didn't play in key positions, and were all at least 26yo.

A subsequent post has pointed out as well you have chosen to start after Richmond's strong 2021 draft haul for your comparison.

This reads as serious cope, Richmond didn’t plan to lose all of Bolton, Rioli and Baker.

But your theory in posting multiple years is right and shows how Richmond manages its list. They deliberately trade out of some drafts and into others according to which draft crops they rate the highest. 2017, 2021 & 2024 are known(or thought) to be strong drafts, and Richmond traded into all of those to take picks 1, 7, 9, 12, 14, 17, 17, 20, 21, 21, 23, 25, 28, 28, 29, 30, 34 in those drafts. By way of comparison all the other drafts combined(so 2018, 19, 20, 22, 23, 25) saw Richmond take only these top 35 picks: 7, 8, 20, 21, 31. And of course 3 of those were in the 2025 draft where they were able to secure picks 7 & 8 to get access to what look like high level players(3rd and 4th picks from the open pool, or 4th and 5th best Vic kids if you look at it that way.)

It’s true the 2024 draft was considered to have strong depth while weaker than previous years at the very top end. I struggle to believe this is some kind of master plan from Richmond. 2021, 2022 and 2023 were considered stronger at the top end. The 2021 draft was considered to be very strong in the top end (where you only had pick 9) and weak depth wise.

The Tigers were hamstrung in the strong 2019 draft for example due to winning the flag and having only lower value picks available, and naturally not wanting to trade out high value players.

But let's compare the value of the draft hauls just as you have presented them.

Richmond 2022-25 12,523 draft points.

North 2022-25 15,841 draft points.

Eagles 2022-25 14,957 draft points.

What I get from this. North have taken about pick 1 value more than Richmond across these 4 drafts. They got that value from losing their 2021 pick 1 in a trade. So you would say the two clubs come out of the 4 drafts roughly par for net young player value. Eagles come out with roughly pick 2 in value higher than Richmond over just these 4 drafts.

Draft points are awful at assessing pick value, we both know this.

In 2021 Richmond added 3671 points(of players still on the list.). North added 1301 of players still on their list. And Eagles added 726 points.

So the 5 year comparison is:

Richmond 16,194
North 17,142
Eagles 15,683

All pretty similar really.

Let’s add the 2021 draft in, bolded are the biggest discrepancies between the two hauls:
Tigers: 1, 7, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 17, 21, 23, 28, 28, 29, 30 31, 40, 43, 49, 54, 55, 58

Eagles: 1, 1, 4, 9, 14, 16, 19, 23, 29, 29, 30, 30, 31, 37, 38, 39, 46, 48, 49, 57, 58, 65

I’m still taking the eagles picks, but agree it’s relatively similar. I think the biggest difference is the majority of the eagles picks still on the list from 2021 go higher in a redraft, don’t think the same can be said for Richmond’s picks.

So why are people in the industry talking so favourably about Richmond's draft picks in this period and not so much North's and Eagles? I think a couple of obvious reasons:

1) Richmond have not been cellar dwellers throughout this period. In fact they made finals in 2022 and got within a kick of progressing, and in 2023 finished comfortably above the bottom 4.

True and that deserves praise in itself but it’s irrelevant for the future prospects of the sides.

2) Richmond targetted what were seen as the rich pickings of the 2024 draft very strategically and basically came away with a future spine. 1 mid + 2 x mid-forwards, 2 x key forwards, 1 ruck/forward, 1 x key defender.

Again don’t believe this, Richmond didn’t force Rioli, Baker and Bolton out the club.

3) The players Richmond gave up to do this were older, not mids or key position players, and also left a very nice hole in the salary cap behind them, with Richmond paying zero salary to the gaining clubs.

Eagles and Nort aren’t paying salary to any other clubs either.

What Richmond are doing looks obviously strategic and planned. What Eagles and north are doing looks - and probably this is only from the outside looking in - more haphazard and some of the moves seem forced rather than voluntary.

Do you truly believe Richmond forced those three out of the club?

 

[txbyhull]

The rage that Brady Hough inspires in these Richmond fans is a mystery to me

 

[Zim^zuM]

What i like about the Eagles drafting is they took their picks quickly

 

[Shueygod]

Fair, but you could have had both Baker and Jagga with some canny trading using the Barass pick.

Bo vs Jagga will be an interesting watch this year.

Bo + Gross + Lindsay vs Jagga is what you’re looking for.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Because if we’re being honest the hype around Richmond’s rebuild isn’t based on them at all and their picks they were taken is largely irrelevant at this point. You can include them if you like and I’d still take both the Eagles and North picks, I did the eagles one for you below (North has had better picks (on number) than the eagles in that time).

The other reason is that in a redraft of 2021 a lot of the Richmond picks would have fallen dramatically, the same can’t be said of either Norths or WC’s picks in 2022-2023.


This is all pretty irrelevant to my post, given none of the players they lost were part of this impressive draft haul.

This reads as serious cope, Richmond didn’t plan to lose all of Bolton, Rioli and Baker.

It’s true the 2024 draft was considered to have strong depth while weaker than previous years at the very top end. I struggle to believe this is some kind of master plan from Richmond. 2021, 2022 and 2023 were considered stronger at the top end. The 2021 draft was considered to be very strong in the top end (where you only had pick 9) and weak depth wise.

Draft points are awful at assessing pick value, we both know this.

Let’s add the 2021 draft in, bolded are the biggest discrepancies between the two hauls:
Tigers: 1, 7, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 17, 21, 23, 28, 28, 29, 30 31, 40, 43, 49, 54, 55, 58

Eagles: 1, 1, 4, 9, 14, 16, 19, 23, 29, 29, 30, 30, 31, 37, 38, 39, 46, 48, 49, 57, 58, 65

I’m still taking the eagles picks, but agree it’s relatively similar. I think the biggest difference is the majority of the eagles picks still on the list from 2021 go higher in a redraft, don’t think the same can be said for Richmond’s picks.


True and that deserves praise in itself but it’s irrelevant for the future prospects of the sides.

Again don’t believe this, Richmond didn’t force Rioli, Baker and Bolton out the club.

Eagles and Nort aren’t paying salary to any other clubs either.

Do you truly believe Richmond forced those three out of the club?

When North gave up a 19yo pick 1 gun from the previous draft to get picks 3 & 20 in a draft within the period it is not a net gain in young talent. It is a delayed benefit from an earlier draft. You may find that concept a bit difficult to understand.

If you again take the broader view, we can see the issue more clearly.

What it means is North have only picks 13(Powell) 22(Goater) 31(Comben) & 35(Curtis) alive on their list from what should have been 4 gilt edged drafts for them 2018 through to to 2021. This has been their whole problem, they started rebuilding, got deep into the process, then after 4 years virtually had to start again, this time with AFL assistance.

And while we are on that, this is what people are admiring about the Tiger draft hauls. They were compiled from only 2 years in the bottom 4, didn't involved selling players whose natural draft year was post 2016, and was done without the AFL assistance packages the Eagles and North have benefitted from, and also didn't involve getting way above par compensation for iffy free agents leaving. Remember the specific issue being discussed is why Richmond's draft hands seem to be more admired than North's or Eagles draft hands. Nobody is going to applaud teams for compiling an impressive list of draft picks by being bottom 4 for years and being fed charity. Let's be brutal about that.

On your other point about whether Richmond planned their rebuild or the departures of the guys that got the big picks in, Bolton, Rioli, Baker & Young. Young and Baker were out of contract and wanted to go to Eagles. In both cases Richmond were offered great compensation, so yeah, they took it voluntarily. In Baker's case they could have refused to trade him and forced him to nominate for one of the drafts. I am sure if they weren't offered adequate compensation they would have. In Young's case Richmond had a surplus of AFL quality key defenders so again they took the fair offer fro the Eagles.

In Bolton and Rioli's case it was 100% in Richmond's court. Those players were long contracted. Blair Hartley has explained in detail it wasn't a matter of Bolton or Baker suddenly coming to Richmond and saying they wanted out. The club and players had been discussing this for years. In Rioli's case it was clearly a mutually agreeable arrangement. Richmond, as with Bolton, could simply have said no and that is where it would have ended. So I have no idea whatsoever what you are on about. Richmond like most clubs would be open to trading most of their players if it suits the player and the right deals come up. The right deals came up and Richmond took them. Nobody was holding a gun to their heads.

Jack Graham maybe a different matter but again as a restricted free Richmond could have simply matched Eagles offer.

Richmond decided to let all these players go and rebuild. That is what I think. It is what the club has said. It is what the footy world believes and has praised. But you know different.