AFL 2019 - AFL Round 1

[Keystone agony]

What's your point?

That preseason from does in fact related to round 1 results in some instances

You have to pick through and watch whats happened in specific games though

ie Melb vs Brisbane. Melbourne copped every injury under the sun

 

[iluvparis]

That preseason from does in fact related to round 1 results in some instances

You have to pick through and watch whats happened in specific games though

ie Melb vs Brisbane. Melbourne copped every injury under the sun

i.e. the ones that support your argument in hindsight?

 

[megatiger]

Why North moved into favourites against freo now?

 

[adammania9]

Gold Coast +39.5
Richmond -15.5
West Coast +24.5

$1.98 odds SportsBet

All over this multi.

Gold Coast +39.5 at $1.44 is honestly a piss take. I reckon they’ll win.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Voted
Carlton +36.5, Collingwood -8.5, Melbourne -22.5, Adelaide -18.5, Dogs +6.5, West Coast -15.5, St Kilda -25.5, GWS -3.5, North +4.5

Only really considering money on the Pies, Demons, Crows and Dogs though. They are the match-ups I like.

Can see the Cats running with Henry, Ratugolea, Kelly, Atkins, Clark, Constable (53 games between them), with Fogarty (15), Narkle (6), O'Connor (5) also close. Not a fan of Rohan or Guthrie either which gives them a decidedly weak bottom 8 - perhaps 10 if 2 of Fogarty/Narkle/O'Connor get a game. Pies missing only Adams and WHE from their finals side - not concerned re: Scharenberg, Dunn, Wells, Reid, we've seen they have the depth to cover those guys.

Port without Dixon, Wines, Hartlett, Ryder, also no Wingard or Polec. Melbourne only missing Lever and May really - they did fine without them last year and no Dixon takes the pressure off.

Hawks in my opinion could see Mirra, Cousins, Morrison, Worpel, Scrimshaw and Lewis given a game. Crows probably only have Doedee and Jones close to that category, with Doedee comfortably the best-performing player named out of that lot. Crows have had a lot of players with a full pre-season and are likely to be closer to 2018 than 2017, while I expect the reverse for Hawthorn who will continue to churn their list over.

Swans will struggle to put together a fit forward line and may be found wanting with a Dogs side that probably is going to do it's best work against teams that can't blow them out of the water with goals - can't see them keeping up with sides that can kick 20 goals (Adelaide, WC, Melbourne) but perhaps can be more dangerous in dour affairs. Unsure here but certainly wouldn't bet with the Swans.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Dees -20.5 @ $1.95 on Neds the best value I can find for that game.

 

[CROWS84]

Is it normally bet365 that put out the totals over under markets first?
Think they do it on the Monday before games from memory .
Was thinking of doing the overs in every game for the round as a multi

 

[CROWS84]

Looks like the books are a bit tentative to put up over/unders on total match points with the new rules. Spoke to bet365 and they think they’re doing it one game at a time

 

[maskmcgee]

Crownbet have all the total points lines up

 

[NonPhixion]

Crownbet have all the total points lines up

Seen this. Melb v Port totals are pretty low I rekon.
O180 @2.20

 

[adammania9]

Gold Coast and St Kilda O180 @ 1.83 is pretty good. Both teams have handicapped back lines and are decent attacking wise. At the dome on a sunny Sunday, I can definitely see both sides kicking decent scores.

 

[langdon19]

But will the roof be open

 

[CROWS84]

I’m thinking the total match points haven’t taken into account the new rule changes so there’s value there. JLT week one total scores were up 27 points on average per game compared to last year. Interesting to see how this translates to the real stuff.
Have multied the overs in each game for $20

 

[maskmcgee]

Seen this. Melb v Port totals are pretty low I rekon.
O180 @2.20

40% chance of rain

 

[the_big_sav]

first round or two usually have a lot of overs then by rnd 4-5 defence starts to sort itself out

 

[NonPhixion]

40% chance of rain

Good point. Will have to keep an eye on that over the next couple days. Otherwise I see the overs a lock. Melb the highest scoring team on the back of last year and starting off the year with some key backs out in May & Lever.

 

[CROWS84]

Good point. Will have to keep an eye on that over the next couple days. Otherwise I see the overs a lock. Melb the highest scoring team on the back of last year and starting off the year with some key backs out in May & Lever.

Don’t think the rain will be a factor , only 0-0.4mm predicted . Over looks good

 

[langdon19]

Good point. Will have to keep an eye on that over the next couple days. Otherwise I see the overs a lock. Melb the highest scoring team on the back of last year and starting off the year with some key backs out in May & Lever.

Not sure about lock
Melb might be the highest scoring team but they keep their opponents to 60 points.
Port may have a defensive mindset with a few players missing
Port and Melbourne matches average 160 points
I'm leaning to the over but in no way is it a lock for me. Will be looking at it harder in the next few days.
It's round 1 so yes it prob goes over.

 

[RooTed]

Gold Coast beat North round 1 and had 141%

Eagles were beaten at home with 75%

Gold coast North game was water polo. Meant jack IMO.

On SM-G935T using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[RooTed]

Don't normally spruik and not really now but going in a lines comp over at @thetrendbettor for this season. New comp $100 winner gets the most bikkies. Just pick 3 each round. How hard could that be? He's good to follow for a tip or two over the season too. Have a look?
I'll be putting my best bets up here again tho. Not touching Tigers Blues tho 15% return on the outcome would have to be almost a cert? Ah footy. Welcome back

On SM-G935T using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

Hogan out. North starting to look like value

 

[SterlingArcher]

Hogan out. North starting to look like value

$2.02 on Sportsbet with a 12 up at any break payout offer. $2.10 on bet365.

As soon as I heard the news re Hogan it was go time for that. Expect them to start favourites to be honest.

 

[iluvparis]

$2.02 on Sportsbet with a 12 up at any break payout offer. $2.10 on bet365.

As soon as I heard the news re Hogan it was go time for that. Expect them to start favourites to be honest.

Hogan turned into Buddy in the off season has he? 5 goal player?

 

[SterlingArcher]

Hogan turned into Buddy in the off season has he? 5 goal player?

Had 26 and 1 last time out v North. Plus Norths round 1 weakness was their KDs - Tarrant underdone, Thompson and Daw out.

Now Freos 2 first choice KFs are out (Hogan and Cox), their first choice depth KF is in doubt (Taberner), and they're gonna have to run with Lobb and McCarthy. That doesn't worry me.

Besides, it's on top of S.Hill, Bennell, Sandi, Blakely, Matera out (3x best 22 plus 2 talented but never on park guys), and their 3rd game since round 16 2013 without Neale.

Not sure why a bottom 6 team needs to lose a player the caliber of Buddy to be affected but ok.

 

[NonPhixion]

Hogan turned into Buddy in the off season has he? 5 goal player?

He’s just 1 more best 22 out to add to the list. The sum of their parts has a significant impact. Also expecting North to start favourites here