AFL 2019 - AFL Round 1

[iluvparis]

He’s just 1 more best 22 out to add to the list. The sum of their parts has a significant impact. Also expecting North to start favourites here

Sure but all of those outs apart from Hogan were already known - I'm talking about his marginal impact on price.

 

[AFDogs]

Mitch Wallis to kick 3 is a decent bet and should be paying a fair bit.

Will probably be one of our main goal kickers this year.

 

[iluvparis]

Was it Sabb who was doing the post round analysis of the poll tips towards the end of last season? Would be good to track each round this year.

 

[puntingdude22]

I don't know why, but i have a feeling port could upset Melbourne or the game will be close.
I don't know why. Melbourne are probably a top 4 team and port will be battling to make the 8. The dees are also playing at home and have a superior team.
Has anyone else had any similar feelings?

 

[AFDogs]

I don't know why, but i have a feeling port could upset Melbourne or the game will be close.
I don't know why. Melbourne are probably a top 4 team and port will be battling to make the 8. The dees are also playing at home and have a superior team.
Has anyone else had any similar feelings?

Nope. Not in the slightest.

 

[iluvparis]

Nope. Not in the slightest.

Melbourne are always a risk because they are so massively overhyped

 

[balmainforever]

opening post updated

ODDS AT 12.15 ON 19/3/2019

 

[maskmcgee]

Beteasy futures megabet stole my idea

Geelong to Lose their First 3 Games 4.75

Shit odds though

 

[balmainforever]

Ladbrokes multi is 5.85

 

[mouncey2franklin]

North paying $2 to beat Freo is pretty decent. Freo decimated by injuries. North fully fit. Fyfe hasn't played any JLT and they're down Neale.

I'll be throwing down $80-100 on North I reckon.

North fully fit? Are you taking the piss?

I wouldn't be surprised if North won by 40 and I wouldn't be surprised if Freo won by 40.

In fact a draw to start the season is not beyond the realms of possibility either.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

first round or two usually have a lot of overs then by rnd 4-5 defence starts to sort itself out

Is this borne out by statistics or just a hunch of yours?

 

[puntingdude22]

Anyone else like swans against the dogs?

 

[langdon19]

Is this borne out by statistics or just a hunch of yours?

Statistics

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Statistics

Where can I find them?

 

[langdon19]

Where can I find them?

I have my own spreadsheet
Just go to afl match centre
Add up round one totals divide by 9 games
Add up totals rounds 5 divide by 9 games
It's a Definate trend

 

[langdon19]

If you add up the whole season you get a bathtub shape as rnd 1 n 23 are higher scoring and it tapers off
Winter some rain helps bring tgs down

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone else like swans against the dogs?

I'd say most people given they are faves

 

[RooTed]

If you add up the whole season you get a bathtub shape as rnd 1 n 23 are higher scoring and it tapers off
Winter some rain helps bring tgs down

1600s early. 1500s mainly in the centre. 1679 R15. Not massive changes over 9 games but 10 points can be a difference I guess? Rule changes may affect this season too? Higher scores supposedly?

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

 

[RooTed]

BetEasy double cash H2H Rnd1 up to $50 should help to build a balance this week!

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

 

[langdon19]

1600s early. 1500s mainly in the centre. 1679 R15. Not massive changes over 9 games but 10 points can be a difference I guess? Rule changes may affect this season too? Higher scores supposedly?

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

2017 had higher first rounds by memory

 

[maskmcgee]

BetEasy double winnings in cash and cash back on same game multis even if every leg fails give them the best promos by far. It wouldn't surprise me if not one team that lead by 12 at a break lost.

 

[mookieb]

Been a long wait, but i'm on:

Ade -10.5 - Price sat there for months and was 6 points cheaper than other books. Big HGA for Ade, good preseason, Hawks missing Mitchell and Wingard (Gunston uder a cloud).

Melb -17.5 - I think Port could be very ordinary early so I took this line a while back. No Wines, Polek, Wingard, Dixon and crossing my fingers no Ryder. I've gone a bit colder on Melb with May and a few others out and some better players coming off limited prep. Port though with 11 changes from round 23 LY and 4 debutants.

Coll -8.5 - Have a significantly better team vs Geel who are typically ordinary at the MCG. With Bews and Tuohy out their backline looks a little more shaky against Elliott, De Goey and co.

GWS -7.5 - Prett similar teams both with a few injuries, but HGA and injuries to Hooker and Daniher swing it to GWS.

GC +25.5 - With StK missing Carlisle, Brown, Roberton, McCartin, Longer, Hannebery and hopefully Steven their teams is almost as crap as GC. +4 goals seems too high for teams that I rate closely together.

Syd -7.5. Looks like Buddy will play. They've been at the top so long I can't see them rolling over to a WB team with no forward line.

NM H2H - Don't really like NM earlier with at 4 new players coming in and injuries to Daw, Jacobs, Anderson and Thompson out but Freo look even worse with their midfield and forward line looking weak.

Lynch is playing so not confident on either Rich or Carl. Same for WC vs Bris.

Biggest bets on Ade -10.5 and Melb -17.5.

Some good promo's around. Being round 1 could be a few crappy teams like Carl bang out the first 2 goals to win the Pointsbet promo.

 

[adammania9]

I think I read that for the PointsBet promo to get up, the side can’t just kick the first two goals, they have to kick the first two scores which must be goals, so they must lead 2.0 to 0.0 which I’m not a fan of. The only sides who will come out and bang two straight without conceding are good enough to win their games anyway.

 

[puntingdude22]

Very tempted to simply multi Dees and Crows and pound it.
Both really should win

 

[tangolikelama]

Ahh yes

come at me campaigners