Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[Blue and Blue]

You don't think teams have somehow just got 'lucky' in the past few years?

You're right in suggesting it doesn't matter how you get there as long as you do - See Bulldogs in '16, but can you bank on that?

The CFC have rightly planted the flag in the ground to get this club on the road to sustained success. They've done very well to date, even after the horrible year we had last year, as the methods were sound. Just would have been nice to have missed on some taken up and 'risked' for types sake instead.

Its very hard to say whether its luck but I like to think so.
I arent saying for one second its ok just to get there. Certainly don't want to be a bulldogs or a tigers or whoever else. I think we are doing it the right way for the best chance at repeat successes.
Anyway its all good. Keep doing what you do mate. I love it and I will come and stir you now and then all in good humour.
At the bottom of it is that I dont want you to miss the enjoyment of the good stuff that is right by being too focused on what is not right.

 

[HARKER]

Its very hard to say whether its luck but I like to think so.
I arent saying for one second its ok just to get there. Certainly don't want to be a bulldogs or a tigers or whoever else. I think we are doing it the right way for the best chance at repeat successes.
Anyway its all good. Keep doing what you do mate. I love it and I will come and stir you now and then all in good humour.
At the bottom of it is that I dont want you to miss the enjoyment of the good stuff that is right by being too focused on what is not right.

You are most welcome to do whatever you want on a forum. That's what makes it.
I'm not for luck for the sake of luck, but sometimes the odds just run in ones favour and my point was: You can't rely on that alone.

SOS and co have a clear vision to position the CFC for sustained success and I see this as being very important.
One can reach for the sky every now and then and touch it on the odd occasion, but to reside amongst the gods take a lot more than that. (What a crock of a shit metaphor have I just presented ) but you know what I mean.

We've planted thee flag, have planted the seeds, watched some shoots rising and now the hard work begins; Learn how to win and detest the loss.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Agreed on all points. But I like the metaphor

 

[Robert Heatley]

Ruckwork was quality and beat Lobbe and Phillips and dropped the ball in favour of his mids.
Got around the ground well and was often singled out by his team-mates as the player to kick it to in a contest.
Didn't look shabby below his knees either. Quite athletic and had a strong presence.
As far as I was concerned his was B.O.G. and I usually don't even track opposition players in the VFL. That's how much he stood out to me.

You couldn’t miss him. Jumped all over Phillips at the start of the match. I thought he was awesome.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Mate, it’s not personal I just think you are very wrong.

My list management views haven’t changed in the last 10+ years, and although I don’t post much I’m on record with all of them.

I have a certain type of player I look for and in a list rebuild I believe there is a certain process you need to follow. Although I have no connection with SOS, from what I can see we have almost the same philosophy. Bolton in his interview tonight even touched on it too.

Players:
Highly competitive and tough. I mean 'would rather cut their leg off than lose' competitive. People who are mentally tough and proven to stand up more in tough moment than fold. Kicking skills important, footy IQ important, ability to win your own ball important (although you can carry a few with elite skills who are predominantly outside… Although they still need to ‘go’ and be able to get it as much as their build lets them.

List management/rebuild:
It’s all about timing. Build your forwards first, they take longer to develop. Then build your mids, then last is cherry on tops. (forward smalls)

I don’t believe in turning HBF’s to midfielders and 2001 to 2015 imo was probably the worst list management effort in history. So many decisions i would never have made and many im on record with.

On record:

- Last year, I was constantly criticised for saying there is no way we would take Luk and Walsh was a lock. I said mids, mids, if we did take a forward he would be older (mcgov) and we’d try for a cheap small (fasolo free hit). Pretty much hit 100% last year.
- Charlie/weitering/mckay/JSOS year: On record loving this draft but also wanting Oliver at 1. But super happy with our haul, I just loved Oliver. Walsh is another with that same mental toughness (selwood another) you just can’t buy or have enough of.
- On record loving all SOS choices thus far.
- On record after seeing first gc training session that JSOS smallest newbie I’ve seen, but has serious smarts and competitiveness.
- On record loving getting rid of jeffy, waite, gibbs, hendersook, buckley, even betts as we needed to rebuild. I think SOS has got incredible value for all our players, most who really were average weak minded and never going to play a part in our next premiership.
- On record as one of only supporting Daisy the whole way through. You don’t lose quality, and im so glad he’s back
- On record saying I understand he has had to target some injured players to get value on potential. Our list was pathetic and we needed some luck. With Russel in the door, it could be master stroke. If pickett could get right, and Willo, doc, marchy, Cuningham and other injury prone players we’re looking so damm good. I truly believe in this rebuild
- On record saying Murphy is weak minded and although too highly skilled with running power to get rid of and I love his loyalty, for me he will never stand up consistently. He will always fold in the heat and every opposition player knows it too. Even the coach baby’s him. I was stoked to get rid of Gibbs for the same reason. I realise why we kept him round, and it’s important for club culture, but for me he’s not in #17
- On record saying Jones wouldn’t make it. Happy to admit was wrong there. Even since last year where he was playing ridiculously loose on opponents, already he has shown he has improved and can play a role in 2019. (I am slightly nervous still though that he still has that ability to zone out and in a big moment cost us something). I hope I’m wrong, as I love his heart and really want him to be part of #17 now. That interview the other week was beautiful.
- Only last week, openly stated what I think SOS will do in this years draft (have a look). So let's see. But to me it is incredibly laser focused. He is clear, he is precise, he won’t overpay, he drives win/win deals and he will get us the best value possible.


I still think we’re still a small chance of finals this year (yes im crazy, but who knows), def in 2020 and who knows if we have a shot then. But from 2021 for a good 5-7 years or more we’re in our window for #17, #18 . Just need to keep the list together, ok injury run and for hierarchy to keep people like SOS around.


So, I’m not just taking pot shots. I’m putting it out there to be prove wrong and questioned too. I’m not a fan of critics or people who just put down others. Im a passionate blue. I’m a glass half full person and supporter at all times. I’ve got $100 on us to make the 8 and looks like I went a little early, but I just know by the end of this year we really will be playing some great footy. IMO its all about consistency with the same people. Learning how to play together.

IMO we’ve got 80% of the next #17 team in the door.

I personally rate SOS efforts thus far at a 10/10. I really can’t criticise anything. Well in hindsight maybe, but based on my choices in real time at the same time, he’s been amazing.

Pulled some great surprises, refused to over pay, got great value for our older players with some value (i didn’t rate any of them). IMO he has a precise, clear plan he has stuck to without bending when the pressure built (could easily have sold the farm for Shiel… Imagine how many would have). Trust in him, he will see us solid.

Great post. The only thing I would question is the bit about Shiel. We offered him more than anyone else. Maybe we would’ve sold the farm if he wanted us and clearly no other list manger was going to because no one offered anymore than we did.

I also don’t think SOS has some sort of unwavering plan. That’s just crazy in an industry and role where things are constantly changing.

 

[FootyGeek]

In terms of outperforming the average for players at specific ages and specific positions Carlton now have 4 of the top 13 players, 3 in the top six.

 

[Benaly28]

Wayne Carey saying on Talking footy that he rates our list big time.

 

[ferrisb]

If we were seriously looking at Billings, can we ask him to slow down a bit.
His value is rising by the week right now.

I've seen plenty of Carlton players deliver their best output in a contract year.

Doing it a year BEFORE joining Carlton is a new one, though

 

[Michael Jezz]

Mate, it’s not personal I just think you are very wrong.

My list management views haven’t changed in the last 10+ years, and although I don’t post much I’m on record with all of them.

I have a certain type of player I look for and in a list rebuild I believe there is a certain process you need to follow. Although I have no connection with SOS, from what I can see we have almost the same philosophy. Bolton in his interview tonight even touched on it too.

Players:
Highly competitive and tough. I mean 'would rather cut their leg off than lose' competitive. People who are mentally tough and proven to stand up more in tough moment than fold. Kicking skills important, footy IQ important, ability to win your own ball important (although you can carry a few with elite skills who are predominantly outside… Although they still need to ‘go’ and be able to get it as much as their build lets them.

List management/rebuild:
It’s all about timing. Build your forwards first, they take longer to develop. Then build your mids, then last is cherry on tops. (forward smalls)

I don’t believe in turning HBF’s to midfielders and 2001 to 2015 imo was probably the worst list management effort in history. So many decisions i would never have made and many im on record with.

On record:

- Last year, I was constantly criticised for saying there is no way we would take Luk and Walsh was a lock. I said mids, mids, if we did take a forward he would be older (mcgov) and we’d try for a cheap small (fasolo free hit). Pretty much hit 100% last year.
- Charlie/weitering/mckay/JSOS year: On record loving this draft but also wanting Oliver at 1. But super happy with our haul, I just loved Oliver. Walsh is another with that same mental toughness (selwood another) you just can’t buy or have enough of.
- On record loving all SOS choices thus far.
- On record after seeing first gc training session that JSOS smallest newbie I’ve seen, but has serious smarts and competitiveness.
- On record loving getting rid of jeffy, waite, gibbs, hendersook, buckley, even betts as we needed to rebuild. I think SOS has got incredible value for all our players, most who really were average weak minded and never going to play a part in our next premiership.
- On record as one of only supporting Daisy the whole way through. You don’t lose quality, and im so glad he’s back
- On record saying I understand he has had to target some injured players to get value on potential. Our list was pathetic and we needed some luck. With Russel in the door, it could be master stroke. If pickett could get right, and Willo, doc, marchy, Cuningham and other injury prone players we’re looking so damm good. I truly believe in this rebuild
- On record saying Murphy is weak minded and although too highly skilled with running power to get rid of and I love his loyalty, for me he will never stand up consistently. He will always fold in the heat and every opposition player knows it too. Even the coach baby’s him. I was stoked to get rid of Gibbs for the same reason. I realise why we kept him round, and it’s important for club culture, but for me he’s not in #17
- On record saying Jones wouldn’t make it. Happy to admit was wrong there. Even since last year where he was playing ridiculously loose on opponents, already he has shown he has improved and can play a role in 2019. (I am slightly nervous still though that he still has that ability to zone out and in a big moment cost us something). I hope I’m wrong, as I love his heart and really want him to be part of #17 now. That interview the other week was beautiful.
- Only last week, openly stated what I think SOS will do in this years draft (have a look). So let's see. But to me it is incredibly laser focused. He is clear, he is precise, he won’t overpay, he drives win/win deals and he will get us the best value possible.


I still think we’re still a small chance of finals this year (yes im crazy, but who knows), def in 2020 and who knows if we have a shot then. But from 2021 for a good 5-7 years or more we’re in our window for #17, #18 . Just need to keep the list together, ok injury run and for hierarchy to keep people like SOS around.


So, I’m not just taking pot shots. I’m putting it out there to be prove wrong and questioned too. I’m not a fan of critics or people who just put down others. Im a passionate blue. I’m a glass half full person and supporter at all times. I’ve got $100 on us to make the 8 and looks like I went a little early, but I just know by the end of this year we really will be playing some great footy. IMO its all about consistency with the same people. Learning how to play together.

IMO we’ve got 80% of the next #17 team in the door.

I personally rate SOS efforts thus far at a 10/10. I really can’t criticise anything. Well in hindsight maybe, but based on my choices in real time at the same time, he’s been amazing.

Pulled some great surprises, refused to over pay, got great value for our older players with some value (i didn’t rate any of them). IMO he has a precise, clear plan he has stuck to without bending when the pressure built (could easily have sold the farm for Shiel… Imagine how many would have). Trust in him, he will see us solid.

Bolton said yesterday that he didn't think Jones would make it so you are not Robinson Crusoe on that point. Jones resurrection is an outlier-happy easter

 

[ferrisb]

I've seen plenty of Carlton players deliver their best output in a contract year.

Doing it a year BEFORE joining Carlton is a new one, though

Gibbs did it in his 'exit' year, bless his cotton socks.

Still can't believe what we got for him...

 

[HereComesJuddy]

No matter where we finish, i still firmly believe we will secure an A grade talented mid. Watching Cripps, Walsh and SPS go at it yesterday and dominate and add the likes of youngsters like Dow, LOB, Fisher, Setterfield etc, why wouldn't you want to be part of the future.

Mark my words, we play finals in 2020 and challenge for the cup in 2021.

Coniglio and Billings... im looking towards you two (if not both)

 

[Eiffel 65]

No matter where we finish, i still firmly believe we will secure an A grade talented mid. Watching Cripps, Walsh and SPS go at it yesterday and dominate and add the likes of youngsters like Dow, LOB, Fisher, Setterfield etc, why wouldn't you want to be part of the future.

Mark my words, we play finals in 2020 and challenge for the cup in 2021.

Coniglio and Billings... im looking towards you two (if not both)

Wouldn't even know how to fit Coniglio into our midfield. Keep in mind we've also got Stocker developing nicely. There's another name to add to the list.

SOS really has done a tremendous job. We've experienced a lot of pain of late but we're about to see our players flourish.

Exciting times ahead

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Wouldn't even know how to fit Coniglio into our midfield. Keep in mind we've also got Stocker developing nicely. There's another name to add to the list.

SOS really has done a tremendous job. We've experienced a lot of pain of late but we're about to see our players flourish.

Exciting times ahead

If we somehow picked up billing and Coniglio, id play Billings forward/mid 70/30. And Coniglio id put him straight in the guts.

With Walsh being a 2nd year player next year, id have him, Cripps, SPS and Fisher playing mid/forward 75/25. Gives all players a bit of a rest and fresher in the last (see geelong).

The more times we can give a few of our classy mids a break forward, the harder the match up for our opposition and the fresher we are as the game goes on.

We would easily find a way. But i agree. SOS has done a great job for us to date.

 

[thylacine60]

judd had billings nudging the brownlow if he maintains his form - couldn't seeing him leaving if that ever happened........

 

[Eiffel 65]

judd had billings nudging the brownlow if he maintains his form - couldn't seeing him leaving if that ever happened........

Always good to see players achieve their potential.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

judd had billings nudging the brownlow if he maintains his form - couldn't seeing him leaving if that ever happened........

Dont see them finishing top 4. And think if we were interested in him we would have a huge amount of coin on the table for him. Id say $300k plus more than what the saints would offer.

Doubt it happens also. But we would have a fair amount of money saved over the past 3 years. This year id suggest it has to go somewhere

 

[thylacine60]

right now there is a gun playing great footy for another club somewhere who has sos whispering sweet somethings into both ears.........

 

[HereComesJuddy]

right now there is a gun playing great footy for another club somewhere who has sos whispering sweet somethings into both ears.........

Nothing surer imo

 

[Weiterbot23]

I've not liked what I've seen from OBrien this year, needs to attack the footy. I know he's an outside player, but you gotta go in when it's your turn.


I hope he comes on and Ed Richards doesn't haunt us, as he would be perfect.

 

[Opine]

judd had billings nudging the brownlow if he maintains his form - couldn't seeing him leaving if that ever happened........

iI that happens, it will, like many other things, be Rattens fault.

 

[Sheephead]

Dont see them finishing top 4. And think if we were interested in him we would have a huge amount of coin on the table for him. Id say $300k plus more than what the saints would offer.

Doubt it happens also. But we would have a fair amount of money saved over the past 3 years. This year id suggest it has to go somewhere

Just hope it doesn’t go to Jamie Elliott like someone suggested somewhere in this abyss.

Be happy to spend coin on Jack Martin though. Lewis Taylor also.

 

[Juddernaut08]

judd had billings nudging the brownlow if he maintains his form - couldn't seeing him leaving if that ever happened........

So youre saying Cripps needs to win the Brownlow so Billings will come to Carlton.

Im on it.

 

[Juddernaut08]

No matter where we finish, i still firmly believe we will secure an A grade talented mid. Watching Cripps, Walsh and SPS go at it yesterday and dominate and add the likes of youngsters like Dow, LOB, Fisher, Setterfield etc, why wouldn't you want to be part of the future.

Mark my words, we play finals in 2020 and challenge for the cup in 2021.

Coniglio and Billings... im looking towards you two (if not both)

Coniglio would be awesome in a non-salary cap world but we dont.

Small forward splurge or stay the course!

 

[Soapy V]

No matter where we finish, i still firmly believe we will secure an A grade talented mid. Watching Cripps, Walsh and SPS go at it yesterday and dominate and add the likes of youngsters like Dow, LOB, Fisher, Setterfield etc, why wouldn't you want to be part of the future.

Mark my words, we play finals in 2020 and challenge for the cup in 2021.

Coniglio and Billings... im looking towards you two (if not both)

I am sure we will pick up some ready made talent at years end. No doubt.

Another year into the young players, another Russell pre season and some added talent and I expect 2020 to see big improvement.

Imagine Dow Setterfield Walsh Kennedy O'Brien Williamson Cuningham Stocker getting to SPS's level (or close) from the weekend? Maybe not finals but close


PS Fingers crossed for a fit Docherty!

 

[cfc4life]

I absolutely love both players, but I'd be taking Cogs over Billings. Consistency is key.