Random The hangar gambling thread - responsibly

[eth-dog]

Essendon great value at $15 for the VFL flag. Williamstown at $7 also good value.

So I have money on Essendon right now ($5 at $15) and after demolishing North we've shortened to second favourites at $5.50, and the cash out value is at $11.38. I'm pretty confident that we'll win the next two VFL games, which may shorten the odds even more, and increase the cash out value. At what point do I decide to bank the profit? When I reach a third of the potential winnings? Half?

 

[Howard Moon]

So I have money on Essendon right now ($5 at $15) and after demolishing North we've shortened to second favourites at $5.50, and the cash out value is at $11.38. I'm pretty confident that we'll win the next two VFL games, which may shorten the odds even more, and increase the cash out value. At what point do I decide to bank the profit? When I reach a third of the potential winnings? Half?

don't think it matters if we keep winning, itll stay around $4.50 from here - its reached its basement.

 

[eth-dog]

don't think it matters if we keep winning, itll stay around $4.50 from here - its reached its basement.

So cash out may only get to say, $15 at best?

 

[Howard Moon]

So cash out may only get to say, $15 at best?

yep, doubt it would get much more - pretty rare to get a 3 dollar flag favorite a few rounds into a season, or anytime really! and I think that's the only way the cash out is going to rise.

 

[eth-dog]

yep, doubt it would get much more - pretty rare to get a 3 dollar flag favorite a few rounds into a season, or anytime really! and I think that's the only way the cash out is going to rise.

Fair enough, unless we go on like a 9-0 start.

 

[Howard Moon]

Fair enough, unless we go on like a 9-0 start.

I had a little $2 nibble at it also but in a 4 leg multi, no cash out unfortunately...



Gotta be in it to win it!

 

[baz_machine]

I had a little $2 nibble at it also but in a 4 leg multi, no cash out unfortunately...

View attachment 660790

Gotta be in it to win it!

Collingwood for the flag?

Your dead to me Howie

 

[Howard Moon]

i understand following the horses became very non PC across the spring, but this is the gambling thread so i feel in a safe place

usually i pull up stumps after the spring and have a spell til the Autumn, to refresh the mind (and the bank balance) but this year i've decided to spend $5 a week on a place multi, just to give myself something to look at - plus i dont really bet the place any other time, so im getting a feel for it, i like the idea of having 3 places a race to win - anyway... i haven't nailed one yet, but its getting a bit ridiculous, one failed leg, pretty much each week.. just like last leg of quaddieiitis. I've even got blokes at work following me on now because they can see how well im seeing them.. but in the end. Still donuts!

I figure i only need to win one and im miles ahead.. anyway, here they are thus far

27/11 - $5 wins $965. 3 of 5 legs
7/12 - $5 wins $1060. 3 of 4 legs
13/12 - $5 wins $320. 3 of 4 legs
21/12 - $5 wins $925. 4 of 5 legs
28/12 - $5 wins $330. 3 of 4 legs
1/1 - $5 wins $240. 3 of 4 legs













sureeeeely its coming!

will update.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Surely you find a new bookie running a refund promo when you miss by a single leg.

 

[Howard Moon]

Surely you find a new bookie running a refund promo when you miss by a single leg.

i can see whats going to happen, ill whittle them down to 3 leggers just to get a payout.. and will get 2 of 3

i have a hunch there is a bit of subconscious self fulfilling prophecy at play here... maybe something in the back recess of my mind wants me to keep missing by one because its a better story

need to stamp that out quick smart!

Caulfield, Saturday.

 

[Howard Moon]

been a pretty rough year... tough times for money lately with the whole not working thing - but fate isn't without a sense of theatre. The gambling gods as it happens might have thrown me a well timed bone

if I can get the favorite home this Saturday, I may have stretched $5 to within the physical limits of its fibers before Stephen hawking needs to explain it via string theory



the car park gate while not ideal may provide the only workable running lanes if these biblical storms arrive on cue... Go the Russian!

Give me a few positive vibes Saturday evening if you are that way inclined

fingerscrossed.jpg

 

[Mercurial89]

been a pretty rough year... tough times for money lately with the whole not working thing - but fate isn't without a sense of theatre. The gambling gods as it happens might have thrown me a well timed bone

if I can get the favorite home this Saturday, I may have stretched $5 to within the physical limits of its fibers before Stephen hawking needs to explain it via string theory

View attachment 991618

the car park gate while not ideal may provide the only workable running lanes if these biblical storms arrive on cue... Go the Russian!

Give me a few positive vibes Saturday evening if you are that way inclined

fingerscrossed.jpg

Im on the something similar mate, had Caulfield cup winner now need Russian to come through. Not the payout you have but Ill be cheering along with you.

Good luck.

 

[Howard Moon]

Im on the something similar mate, had Caulfield cup winner now need Russian to come through. Not the payout you have but Ill be cheering along with you.

Good luck.

I've been going over the race in my mind all week, how the hell oli does it from the car park... i think the rain will put a pen through half the field, think we just need to settle ahead of humidor and hopefully arcadia with a bit of cover, then get going with a long sustained run around the field, hopefully, turn it into a real staying test. Dont want to be looking for runs up the rail, itll be chopped out by then after 17 races with 30mm rain.

The way danny O Brien is talking, he knows its the best horse in the race and oli might just ride him as such which can be risky

good luck to you too!

 

[boncer34]

Remember moderation today

 

[Santoz]

Remember moderation today

Supermarkets are still making noodles mate.

Go your hardest boys

 

[Howard Moon]

Supermarkets are still making noodles mate.

Go your hardest boys

The cat still needs feeding though

 

[Santoz]

The cat still needs feeding though

Feed it to the dog.

2 issues solved right there.

 

[Howard Moon]

Reckon the pace looks middling again, unless walker decides to put another under Dashing Willoughby and cook him by chicquita lodge.... Might set up for the Williams duo on pace, Arran if kah can get out and the moth coming late with Miami bound

Tough this year.

Fingers crossed the Russian can follow the green moon path but just seems a little one paced

 

[Santoz]

Reckon the pace looks middling again, unless walker decides to put another under Dashing Willoughby and cook him by chicquita lodge.... Might set up for the Williams duo on pace, Arran if kah can get out and the moth coming late with Miami bound

Tough this year.

Fingers crossed the Russian can follow the green moon path but just seems a little one paced

That was my only knock on Arran. From its barrier, will it be able to get out and get some sort of momentum at the right time.

 

[Schnitzengruben]

I love a punt but never bet on racing so my racing knowledge is basically non-existent. Anyone have thoughts on Surprise Baby? Any roughies with a shot?

 

[Schnitzengruben]

Got on Finance Tycoon Race 1 and got up. Let's goooooo.

 

[Santoz]

I love a punt but never bet on racing so my racing knowledge is basically non-existent. Anyone have thoughts on Surprise Baby? Any roughies with a shot?

I think SB can be right in the finish.

 

[Howard Moon]

Good day at the office! Noodles saved for another year

 

[tandino]

Nice little return on both Outrageous and Twilight Payment which makes for a nice change after 15 years of mostly Cup failure.

 

[boncer34]

Managed to nail part of the first 4 to save my day.