Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[ziad]

Colby McKercher with 40 disposals and Ryley Sanders with 39 in the U18 game today. Split the pick and see if we can nab at least one of them, two and I'll be farkin elated.

Both for Reid, but lets see how Reid goes. WA were outclassed so the McKercher & Sanders performance while impressive to watch needs to be taken in context. What's clear is that (a) some programmes are better at tallen ID and development and (b) the take the best WA player strategy is as deaply flawed as ever.

 

[Flarn Rarn]

The trade last year would barely pass muster for this year. GWS wanted it for a player North wasn't going to take so they ended up collecting more on top of what they would have got with pick 1 anyway.

If we have pick 1 and somebody wants to pry Reid from us, be prepared to bleed at the trade table.

 

[WCE_phil]

Was really impressed with Sanders today. McKercher although huge numbers doesn't really move the radar and there wasn't as much impact with them. For a guy who's weak point has been considered to be his impact per disposal I was much more impressed with Sanders today.

The northern academies just have to be regulated and players moved to the draft or at least have the top 20 of the draft protected. There is just too much benefit for them there. If the clubs weren't grossly incompetent at managing their salary cap in the past there should have been multiple premierships won by the northern clubs with all the benefits.

The draft and competition is just so far pulled away from WA and SA clubs that I honestly don't see any of our clubs having a shot at a flag without a ridiculous run of luck with draft picks, trades and everything coming together all at once.

In the WA vs Allies game today what really stood out (apart from being destroyed in the midfield) was just how many talls and developing players they have tied to clubs. The thing is the academies are only getting stronger too. By the time something is done it will be too late in 2-3 years and the northern clubs will have 20 odd players on their lists that they really haven't had to compete for. The other thing as well is because of the academies the top juniors are getting club exposure from a much earlier age and are coming in a lot more developed in particular with their bodies and endurance in particular.

We are just now seeing players really enter the AFL system whereby they have already had club exposure and even club development and programs to follow for years before being drafted. So far people have taken notice of guys like Daicos and Ashcroft etc coming into the AFL and being ready straight away, as supporters just know you are now going to see a lot more of these guys entering the system like this. Yes they might not be at that same talent level but they have had that path which even for most of the elite Victorian prospects they don't have this level of help or exposure. WA and SA juniors in particular are just going to really struggle to compete and the development pathways are just non existent in comparison. The AFL is basically going with well the WA and SA kids will make it if they are good enough without any help whilst so much money and time is fed into all the other competing programs.

The above all whilst the WA clubs hands are really tied as if we spend the funds there it will be considered as part of the soft cap. I'm personally just over how distorted the entire draft and system is now.

An idea from elsewhere but rather than exact picks giving clubs based on finishing position an amount of draft points and then having silent auctions on each and every pick and the player the club would take I think is a really good idea. I think it works for trading as well. That way clubs go in with a certain amount of points and list positions and you just work the draft from there. If you want to keep academy ties or FS sure allow clubs to match bids on players but without discounts and only if they have the points to match in that draft when the player is bid upon.

 

[Free Agent]

The only offer I would really take is from say GWS for say 4,6 and their future first for 1 and our future second.

Not good enough.

There future first next year could be pick 12 or higher if they make finals.
Plus the way the draft is comprised every year with father son and academy picks and Priorities picks our future picks would likely be pushed out even further like our second pick has this year.

You just can't go by any future picks anymore because of how compromised the draft has become. It's a joke. Don't want any future picks in a trade deal anymore.

 

[amazingjoshy]

If we have pick 1 and somebody wants to pry Reid from us, be prepared to bleed at the trade table.

Exactly this. Someone offers something ridiculous, or we just take the "generational" talent. There's no settling for good enough or best offer.

An offer we can't refuse or we get Reid

 

[Nuffington Post]

North doing just enough to keep threatening for the spoon


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[ioppolo]

Is Reid likely to sook himself back home after two years? If that's likely I might not risk him, it'd be a huge waste of pick one.

 

[Free Agent]

Is Reid likely to sook himself back home after two years? If that's likely I might not risk him, it'd be a huge waste of pick one.

Your AFL team's state-by-state list breakdown

See which clubs have the strongest crop of local talent, and which sides are susceptible to the 'go home factor'.

www.zerohanger.com

Honestly this talk of not drafting because we scared of players going back home on every single victorian player is getting out of hand and is probably the reason we are in this mess. Port didn't care and drafted Butters who is from country vic and now tearing up the comp for them. Nearly almost all other interstate side in this comp have a lot of Vic based players. We have the least of all clubs with Vic players.

Adelaide Crows has 20 Vic 21 SA 0 WA
Brisbane have 16 Vic 5 SA and 9 WA
Freo have 15 Vic 4 SA and 22 WA
Gold Coast have 20 Vic 7 SA 6 WA
GWS 21 Vic 4 SA 5 WA players
Port 18 Vic 17 SA and 5 WA
Swans 20 Vic 7 SA and 5 WA

Then there's us who have
14 Vic 3 SA and 27 WA players

Going by this we are selling ourselves short in getting the best talent available by just going WA every time. If we are continuing going this pattern of having way too many WA players it's going to kill us like it is now.

Going across the league it's an obvious stat that there's not enough talent in WA to be drafting an overwhelming amount.
It has to be balanced and we can't just shut off Victorian talent every year because we are scared of the go home factor. In fact it's the opposite. We need to start looking into Victoria more and bringing in those highly talented players like Reid.

Port is the example of doing it right and having the right balance with a high amount of Vic players with SA players on a 50/50 balance and look at them. Could be playing off in a grand final this season. Just pick quality WA talent but if there's not enough especially when we hit later pick like 20s then we must look elsewhere.

Stupid recruiting is costing us. Shuey is Victorian and look how he turned out. His been a brilliant player for us. If anything our club has been way to WA centric. 27 players is a lot and probably why we have a few spuds like Clark on the list instead of looking elsewhere.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

I'm not as sold on Reid as others and two bodies are usually better than one. Others might be better options at 1.


Unfortunately I'm not sold on GWS picks either, mostly because I'm worried all the premium midfielders will be gone by pick 4.

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[Total_Juddshanks]

This sort of groupthink about a clear standout pick 1 rolls around every few years, and if you look back over the last decade or so there are actually only two #1s (Walsh and Rowell) who are arguably the best player in their draft, and even those two have multiple other guys in their top 10 who were very very good- Rozee, [PLAYERCARD]Max King[/PLAYERCARD] and Rankine in Walsh's top 10, [PLAYERCARD]Noah Anderson[/PLAYERCARD] and Serong in Rowell's.

Point being that Harley Reid is not necessarily the sure thing people have decided he is- he's an excellent junior who has looked great at u/18 level but there are many players with as good a CV as his who for whatever reason never really put it together at AFL level. And many more who just end up as really good players rather than clear standout superstars.

That said, I doubt we will trade pick 1 if we get it, simply because FOMO is too powerful a motivation. If you're a recruiter and you make the incredibly controversial call to trade away the Reid pick, if he turns out to be all he's cracked up to be you'll be a punchline forever. Whereas if you select him and he turns out to be underwhelming, noone is going to be critical for the club taking the obvious consensus standout.

 

[Falco]

My concern is around depth. If we pick Reid then what happens if he gets injured? I would prefer to have 3 first rounders - the depth there across the squad is more considerable and we dont become dependent on one player. I dont think we have the luxury to do that considering how badly the list needs new talent across the board. As many people have said - we hold the whip hand and can sit on our hands fielding offers until the Godfather offer arrives. Trade that for the biggest bounty you can get for it, retain pick 19. Then you're in the position to do the same thing on the second day. Getting back on top needs ruthlessness and canny negotiating.

 

[Jupes]

ROB on SEN discussing the MEGA TRADE of pick 1 and Yeo for Tim English:
"We didn't want to be pressed for time and everyone was happy so it was good to get it done."

 

[JADED]

This sort of groupthink about a clear standout pick 1 rolls around every few years,

Was thinking similar with Jack Martin's return to Carlton tonight.
Another that was touted generational/huge talent. G.C got to pre draft select him. Has talent, but isn't someone that would drag us out of the depths were in.
We did really well with our draft selections last year, but not so much the pick split itself if that makes sense... We need to be ruthless, demanding, stubborn. Not push overs.

 

[JADED]

ROB on SEN discussing the MEGA TRADE of pick 1 and Yeo for Tim English:
"We didn't want to be pressed for time and everyone was happy so it was good to get it done."

Think we'd build a better list keeping pick 1 and hoping English returns home via free agency in another year. Pretty sure we'll have a few $ to throw around.

 

[Jupes]

Think we'd build a better list keeping pick 1 and hoping English returns home via free agency in another year. Pretty sure we'll have a few $ to throw around.

it was my nightmare fuel scenario

 

[Nuffington Post]

I would be very surprised if we were dumb enough to trade pick 1 for a player. Surely not part of the ‘transition’ strategy Simmo talks about.


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[Bender_]

Trade it for Brayden Lyle and Ian Downsborough.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The best Harley Reid comparison I think is the 2019 draft with [PLAYERCARD]Matt Rowell[/PLAYERCARD]

Go through the top 10 and think of any combination of 3 first rounders you would want for Rowell and its pretty difficult to find.....

2019 AFL draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Best kjind of deal we would be heading towards in that example would be Lachie Ash, [PLAYERCARD]Hayden Young[/PLAYERCARD], [PLAYERCARD]Caleb Serong[/PLAYERCARD] but rest would be a immense loss on if we gave up the pick 1 for 3 top 10 picks in that similar draft

All in all a easy decision to keep pick 1 when you look at that draft

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

My concern is around depth. If we pick Reid then what happens if he gets injured? I would prefer to have 3 first rounders - the depth there across the squad is more considerable and we dont become dependent on one player. I dont think we have the luxury to do that considering how badly the list needs new talent across the board. As many people have said - we hold the whip hand and can sit on our hands fielding offers until the Godfather offer arrives. Trade that for the biggest bounty you can get for it, retain pick 19. Then you're in the position to do the same thing on the second day. Getting back on top needs ruthlessness and canny negotiating.

If? Thats generouus.

Trade down to Gold Coasts 1st rounder and you have 2 first rounders. After that we gotta put some faith in finding someone at pick 30 odd for a change rather then the 10 years of failure we have lived through so far. Its time we picked up a Chad Warner at pick 39 for example.... We need to do that as opposed to trade the best player away because our recruiters are too incompetent to find a diamond with the later picks

If thats the issue, sack the recruiters, dont sack Harley Reid

 

[Truckosaurus]

Whatever happens we'll be criticised for it:
Trade pick 1: "Eagles huge blunder, cost themselves the next big thing, take quality over quantity"

Pick Reid: "Should have traded it for more first rounders, could have covered a lot of needs in one draft, superdraft runs deep, one player not going to fix them"

Somehow avoid the spoon: "Oooo they've cost themselves there, they'll feel good now but long term it'll just be worse"

 

[Barrybran]

Just reading up on Reid. The kid is from a country town with a population of less than 2,000. I think Perth might be better for him than Melbourne.

 

[ziad]

My concern is around depth. If we pick Reid then what happens if he gets injured? I would prefer to have 3 first rounders - the depth there across the squad is more considerable and we dont become dependent on one player. I dont think we have the luxury to do that considering how badly the list needs new talent across the board. As many people have said - we hold the whip hand and can sit on our hands fielding offers until the Godfather offer arrives. Trade that for the biggest bounty you can get for it, retain pick 19. Then you're in the position to do the same thing on the second day. Getting back on top needs ruthlessness and canny negotiating.

to worry about drafting a gun because he may get injured is fast tracking long term mediocracy

 

[ziad]

Whatever happens we'll be criticised for it:
Trade pick 1: "Eagles huge blunder, cost themselves the next big thing, take quality over quantity"

Pick Reid: "Should have traded it for more first rounders, could have covered a lot of needs in one draft, superdraft runs deep, one player not going to fix them"

Somehow avoid the spoon: "Oooo they've cost themselves there, they'll feel good now but long term it'll just be worse"

We dont need to worry about them!

 

[WA footy mad]

We haven't got pick 1 yet, we are heading that way. But North Melbourne will be trying to get pick 1 for sure. If we do end up with pick 1 it will be interesting if a club can tempt WCE to trade it. We should keep pick 1 if we end up with it & tempt GWS to trade there 1st pick with points so they can bid for all there academy players. That will give us a good hand at this years trade.

 

[archiemoses]

Harley Reid please. I don't trust our recruiters to get it right if we traded out of 1.