Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

It’s pretty hard to find a single person I know who believes West Coast will keep pick1.

Lots to play out, but the prevailing view is we will trade the pick, and that includes what Harley’s family think will happen.

This might be the case but it's not based on anything factual. It's a collective opinion based on heresay with no known origin.

Reid's family hasn't stated anything, Reid has only stated a preference to stay in Victoria & this was through his manager. It's the preference of the overwhelming majority of draftees to stay and play closer to home. It's not news worthy itself.

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[Keys]

I'm confused so help me out gang.
What is the downside to drafting Reid because I can't see one?

If he tears up the comp and wants to go home after 2 years, we still get a good trade for him.
If we back ourselves in as a club and keep him, great stuff.

As the draft does seem a bit shallow at the top end, unless we got an unbelievable offer, just pick the best player.

Think people are trying to overcomplicate things here.

I’m fully in favour of drafting Reid - it’s the most obvious choice and the one less likely to make our recruiters look stupid in a few years time. Nobody, except a few simpletons over east, would criticise us for drafting Reid if he doesn’t fulfill his anticipated potential. However, if we trade him for some magic beans that don’t come good whilst Harley is tearing it up elsewhere then we’ll get the ridicule we deserve

That said, Im not opposed to trading pick 1 but it will depend on two things that are yet to be determined-
1) What the trade proposal actually is. Plenty of talk around what it might be, some scenarios more realistic than others, but until there’s something on the table it’s difficult to judge the merits of a trade.
2) What the draft order looks like once FA compo and other trades have been sorted and then how the picks offered for Reid line up with who’s likely to be available at those picks

I fully expect that what’s considered acceptable here will be different to what the club thinks (see reaction to last years pick split at the time).

There’ll be some who will be opposed to any trade whatsoever but, assuming a tempting enough offer is made, here’s why trading away Reid deserves consideration

• We’re unlikely to ever get a better offer than we will now even if Reid proves to be as good as hoped/expected.
• Reid (and the club) will have to deal with constant speculation over his future and interest from Victorian clubs. It was ever present with Judd and it will be exponentially worse with Reid given the amount of football discussion these days
• He will have to carry an enormous weight of unreasonable expectation from Eagles fans as our saviour and will find it difficult to go about life normally. Have a look at the media attention he was given for an U/18s to get an idea of the sort of attention he’ll get. It’ll be a lot to deal with for an 18/19 year old

The club will need to satisfy themselves that he’s aware of and capable of handling those pressures

I still think we should draft him but can see some potential pitfalls that would have me considering if a trade offer warrants giving away the best player in the draft. It’d need to be very good though - the sort of offer than has people questioning the sanity of those offering it

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

This might be the case but it's not based on anything factual. It's a collective opinion based on heresay with no known origin.

Reid's family hasn't stated anything, Reid has only stated a preference to stay in Victoria & this was through his manager. It's the preference of the overwhelming majority of draftees to stay and play closer to home. It's not news worthy itself.

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You’re right, it’s simply a case of Chinese whispers.

What is 10000% fact is Harley’s uncle is telling everyone in the local country footy scene that Harley won’t be at west coast next year, so much so that people have been surprised about how open he’s been.

That’s not the sole basis of info. Just people and around Melbourne who all say the same thing.

 

[Jukes]

I would love the club to come out early in trade week and state on record we will not be trading pick 1 under any circumstance (obviously after realising no realistic godfather offer exists).

Add the #9 presented by Cousins or Nic Nat on draft night and Reid ain’t going anywhere.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Article from AFL.com

"No.1 pick's home set to swing on free agent Roo contract". Follow by a "could depend" which itself is utterly devoid of evidence, it relies on North's willingness to trade 2&3 away.

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[Bender_]

Everyone I've asked in my office thinks we're keeping pick 1.

Granted I'm working from home, but my dog agreed with my sentiments. The cats just flat out ignored me.

 

[Ishmael_]

I'd be very happy with either Curtin or McKercher and something substantial (e.g. ~top 5 pick, or top 10 and a proper player).

But I don't see how that happens without North trading with us, and they'd have no interest in overpaying to obtain Reid. Same thing with a third club like Melbourne - I don't see them having the cards to satisfy North and us. So for mine, we keep pick 1 and pick Reid (or Walter then Reid - happy with either).

But I would love to somehow get our hands on Curtin as well. North clearly want him too so it would have to be compelling and we'd need pick 2.

What about F1 + 35 + 38 for pick 2 and F3/4? Or F1 + F2 for pick 2?

If we like the draft next year we trade out a future first again. What gets North interested (assuming they get pick 3) without killing our draft hand?

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Article from AFL.com

"No.1 pick's home set to swing on free agent Roo contract". Follow by a "could depend" which itself is utterly devoid of evidence, it relies on North's willingness to trade 2&3 away.

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Interesting title of the article. And not even a sentence in the article at the prospect of West Coast holding the pick. An interesting omission.

 

[shooshka]

Will it come down to where Watson drops though? It doesn't seem likely GC will take their first pick to the draft because Walter could be first name read out. GC would have to pony up that pick instead of being able to trade it for the chump change picks, right?

I'd prefer to hold our F1 until draft night to see who is left on the board but so far as I can tell that rules out GC as a trade partner because they will have moved that pick on before the draft.

I think there is a compelling case for GC to hold the pick until draft night then trade it.

The ability to scrounge extra points from later picks (without opening list spots) is significant for GC, and will likely be significant to the tune of an extra F2nd or late F1st.

We can carry extra picks/points for them, plus no bid on Walter, but I still think our best option is chasing a pick in the 8-12 range (helping that team move up to 4, and helping GC accrue 2023 points plus bank 2024 points).


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[jaxxon]

Just take Reid. Unless we get 2 & 3 (which won't be offered), we are unlikely to get an offer good enough to offset high end talent. We need high end talent at this point.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Interesting title of the article. And not even a sentence in the article at the prospect of West Coast holding the pick. An interesting omission.

Wrong inference from the article. The point is picks 2 & 3 are required to generate the currency.

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[TerryFilk]

This might be the case but it's not based on anything factual. It's a collective opinion based on heresay with no known origin.

Reid's family hasn't stated anything, Reid has only stated a preference to stay in Victoria & this was through his manager. It's the preference of the overwhelming majority of draftees to stay and play closer to home. It's not news worthy itself.

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When did Reid ever state that? All I’ve heard him say is he’s happy to go anywhere, which was confirmed by his coach and manager.

 

[Bender_]

When did Reid ever state that? All I’ve heard him say is he’s happy to go anywhere, which was confirmed by his coach and manager.

Reid's uncle said it in an email he sent to North Melbourne members about the McKay compensation.

 

[DanWCE]

I think there is a compelling case for GC to hold the pick until draft night then trade it.

The ability to scrounge extra points from later picks (without opening list spots) is significant for GC, and will likely be significant to the tune of an extra F2nd or late F1st.

We can carry extra picks/points for them, plus no bid on Walter, but I still think our best option is chasing a pick in the 8-12 range (helping that team move up to 4, and helping GC accrue 2023 points plus bank 2024 points).


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So they would have to strike a deal with us to carry that pick into the draft. If we don't bid I can't see Norf letting Walter slip through.

GC will have to move it on before their turn comes around is what I'm saying, and if that's the case they can only deal with the teams ahead of them, yes?

 

[Hook461123]

They will find ways to get there points. What they won’t do is just throw a top 5 pick away.
They will be either looking at trading up above Walter which is possible but unlikely depending on trade week, using the pick to bring a player into the club or trading it into next years first round.
If we (the Eagles) had pick 4 you wouldn’t want pick 19 and a couple of other 2nd rounders for it or some of the other suggestions being thrown around let’s be honest.

They threw away pick 7 last year.

If they do split 4 with someone like the Dogs for two first rounders then maybe we can target Dogs pick 10. Trade pick 19, 35 & 54 for 10 instead of 4. Gives them even more of a points upgrade.

Go to the draft with 1,10,38 and then match on a couple NGA's

1. Reid
10. Sullivan / Murphy if we want a KPD or Wilson is also around that pick
Then pick 38 to catch a slider before matching on a couple of NGA's

5 picks seems about right. So we might as well keep our later picks to match NGA's and try and bundle our 2nds to move back into the 1st round.

 

[TerryFilk]

They threw away pick 7 last year.

If they do split 4 with someone like the Dogs for two first rounders then maybe we can target Dogs pick 10. Trade pick 19, 35 & 54 for 10 instead of 4. Gives them even more of a points upgrade.

Go to the draft with 1,10,38 and then match on a couple NGA's

1. Reid
10. Sullivan / Murphy if we want a KPD or Wilson is also around that pick
Then pick 38 to catch a slider before matching on a couple of NGA's

5 picks seems about right. So we might as well keep our later picks to match NGA's and try and bundle our 2nds to move back into the 1st round.

Why would the Dogs do that? They’d want to trade up to get ahead of a Croft bid, they can easily stack up points in other ways.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

5 picks seems about right. So we might as well keep our later picks to match NGA's and try and bundle our 2nds to move back into the 1st round.

Much prefer this approach to downgrading from Pick 1

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Wrong inference from the article. The point is picks 2 & 3 are required to generate the currency.

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Not sure that was my read, but that would be an amazing outcome.

West Coast would take that and run.

 

[CountryLad]

They threw away pick 7 last year.

If they do split 4 with someone like the Dogs for two first rounders then maybe we can target Dogs pick 10. Trade pick 19, 35 & 54 for 10 instead of 4. Gives them even more of a points upgrade.

Go to the draft with 1,10,38 and then match on a couple NGA's

1. Reid
10. Sullivan / Murphy if we want a KPD or Wilson is also around that pick
Then pick 38 to catch a slider before matching on a couple of NGA's

5 picks seems about right. So we might as well keep our later picks to match NGA's and try and bundle our 2nds to move back into the 1st round.

They threw away pick 7 last year.

That’s not entirely correct it was used as a salary dump to reposition there list management.
They will find ways to get points.
Players always want to leave the Suns.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Not sure that was my read, but that would be an amazing outcome.

West Coast would take that and run.

Imagine Norf having pick 1 (and for the sake of argument, Pick 2 FA compo) then they win on Saturday, and have to now hand picks 2 and 3 over for 1.

Can't imagine even Norf being that dumb.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

You’re right, it’s simply a case of Chinese whispers.

What is 10000% fact is Harley’s uncle is telling everyone in the local country footy scene that Harley won’t be at west coast next year, so much so that people have been surprised about how open he’s been.

That’s not the sole basis of info. Just people and around Melbourne who all say the same thing.

What relevance does his uncle have to anything?

 

[TerryFilk]

Imagine Norf having pick 1 (and for the sake of argument, Pick 2 FA compo) then they win on Saturday, and have to now hand picks 2 and 3 over for 1.

Can't imagine even Norf being that dumb.

Honestly I don’t think North want Reid as much as people are making out, they will get Sanders for nothing and draft Curtin and any one of McKercher, Duursma or Watson, they’ll be pretty content to stand pat.

Maybe they’ll offer 2 and Port’s 1st to move up to 1, but that’s the best offer I can see them tabling and it’s an offer I hope we reject.

Melbourne are the team who’ll come the hardest.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Much prefer this approach to downgrading from Pick 1

I much prefer keeping Reid and trading our future 1st.



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[Wooshaaaa]

Pick him. Give him number 9.


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[bzparkes]

What relevance does his uncle have to anything?

Norf supporter, supposedly.