Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

[barreness]

"Selling oil for free"
Comrade you really need to go to night school and learn English

You missed the 'no one is' bit.

Stop with this conspiracy stuff. I doubt you finished year 10, you're not going to get me on grammar

Maybe I just disagree, right?

 

[barreness]

Here's an interesting article in Russian media projecting Russian problems onto the rest of the world including this bit:

In his Valdai Speech last October, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a very interesting observation:

“It’s impossible to imagine that a drop in Russian oil production will maintain normal conditions in the global energy sector and the global economy.”

https://www.rt.com/news/632718-financial-warfare-fail-sanctions/

And yet, we've had a massive drop in Russian oil and gas deliveries and gas and oil prices are lower now than before the invasion.

Poor old Vlad didn't anticipate the massive expansion of Saudi production, probably to sell as much as it can before so much more solar and storage displaces fossil fuels.
Oil prices dipped during COVID, spiked just after the invasion and are now back at near-10-year-lows. Combined with the Aussie Dollar's surge, petrol is coming right down in Australia despite becoming more monopolistic.

View attachment 2531453

The oil/gas still gets sold, and always will. Middle men and dodgy sanctions work arounds get some cash now

 

[steve strange]

You missed the 'no one is' bit.

Stop with this conspiracy stuff. I doubt you finished year 10, you're not going to get me on grammar

Maybe I just disagree, right?

He failed finger painting . Struggler

 

[wannabejack]

He failed finger painting . Struggler

The phrase "he failed finger painting level of humour" describes a joke so juvenile, simple, or poorly executed that it is below the skill level of a child.

 

[Mobbs]

lol @ Russia reporting all the drones they shot down in various regions but for some reason not mentioning any drones around Pskov where refinery (edit: storage I think it was) go whoomph.

 

[Mobbs]

Straight through the cope cage.

 

[Zidane98]

My my how desperate Putin has become

 

[Zidane98]

 

[barreness]

The phrase "he failed finger painting level of humour" describes a joke so juvenile, simple, or poorly executed that it is below the skill level of a child.

Did you ask a LLM for this? Don't break your brain on it man

I thought it was a failed school/hitler was a failed artist type jibe. Could be reading to much into it

 

[Jamolad]

Did you ask a LLM for this?

Nah, he was educating the LLM

 

[Aussie in exile]

You missed the 'no one is' bit.

Stop with this conspiracy stuff. I doubt you finished year 10, you're not going to get me on grammar

Maybe I just disagree, right?

Dude i owned you on the comment
Now book up them English lessons at night school if they still teach English at night school in moscow, and perhaps as well book up Mandarin classes, with china on the verge of moving into russia and helping itself to all that gas and oil for free.

 

[Zidane98]

Putin shutting down telegram in Russia with plans to order a covert mobilisation.

 

[Zidane98]

Dude i owned you on the comment
Now book up them English lessons at night school if they still teach English at night school in moscow, and perhaps as well book up Mandarin classes, with china on the verge of moving into russia and helping itself to all that gas and oil for free.

barreness having a shocker this week with the English language.

AI sometimes does not translate well from Cyrillic eh tovarisch.

 

[steve strange]

Dude i owned you on the comment
Now book up them English lessons at night school if they still teach English at night school in moscow, and perhaps as well book up Mandarin classes, with china on the verge of moving into russia and helping itself to all that gas and oil for free.

No need. There is a NWO now.

 

[Saint]

The oil/gas still gets sold, and always will. Middle men and dodgy sanctions work arounds get some cash now

Crude Oil Production in Russia is down 10%, and their return per barrel is down 10%.

It's taking about half of the revenue they would otherwise be making. Govt revenue is down 12% year-on-year for January 2026

The collapse in oil revenue which is becoming more acute as the global price has come down and combined with the military spending, the Russian budget is in a death spiral.

Last year (2025) the budget deficit in Russia was $80bn USD, a higher deficit than what they ran in 1996, not long before the 1998 economic collapse. In 2024 it was a $40bn deficit.

In January 2026, it was a $22bn deficit. They're well on track for a $100bn+ deficit, or more than a quarter of their gold reserves (which will also lower the global price of gold if they sell $100bn+ this year). Everybody who could lend money to the Russian Govt (Russian Banks) are all tapped out and defaults are just around the corner. State directed preferential loans are held off the books of Russian banks.

If the Govt defaults, they're all insolvent. If I were a Russian, I'd be taking any money in any Russian bank out and putting it into Crypto or Gold hidden in the apartment somewhere.

 

[wannabejack]

... I'd be taking any money in any Russian bank out and putting it into Crypto or Gold hidden in the apartment somewhere.

Some good advice for you barreness.

 

[steve strange]

Crude Oil Production in Russia is down 10%, and their return per barrel is down 10%.

It's taking about half of the revenue they would otherwise be making. Govt revenue is down 12% year-on-year for January 2026

The collapse in oil revenue which is becoming more acute as the global price has come down and combined with the military spending, the Russian budget is in a death spiral.

Last year (2025) the budget deficit in Russia was $80bn USD, a higher deficit than what they ran in 1996, not long before the 1998 economic collapse. In 2024 it was a $40bn deficit.

In January 2026, it was a $22bn deficit. They're well on track for a $100bn+ deficit, or more than a quarter of their gold reserves (which will also lower the global price of gold if they sell $100bn+ this year). Everybody who could lend money to the Russian Govt (Russian Banks) are all tapped out and defaults are just around the corner. State directed preferential loans are held off the books of Russian banks.

If the Govt defaults, they're all insolvent. If I were a Russian, I'd be taking any money in any Russian bank out and putting it into Crypto or Gold hidden in the apartment somewhere.

Have we heard all this before about russian economy? Ground hog day. Its always projection for the west

• Russia economy: What is the risk of meltdown?– BBC, Dec 17 2014
• Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse – Atlantic, Mar 2 2022
• What’s awaiting Russia may be much worse than the chaos of 1990s – Aljazeerah, Mar 4 2022
• The Russian economy is headed for collapse – The Conversation, Mar 10 2022
• Russia admits it faces economic collapse over Putin’s war – Telegraph, May 9 2022
• ‘Slower burn.’ Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline has started – CNN, Aug 29 2022
• Russia admits it was on the verge of economic collapse – Business Insider, Nov 20 2023
• Why the Russian Economy’s Luck is Running Out – Moscow Times, Nov 21 2023
• Putin under pressure as Russian economy on verge of freefall after US ‘ultimatum’ – Express, May 4 2024
• Russian Economy Faces ‘Creeping Crisis’, Economists Warn – Newsweek, Jul 8 2024
• Russia’s weakened energy trade and lost access to the dollar will spark a severe recession within a year – Business Insider, Jul 13 2024
• An economic catastrophe is lurking beneath Russia’s GDP growth as Putin ‘throws everything into the fireplace’ – Fortune, Aug 19 2024
• The war in Ukraine is straining Russia’s economy and society – Economist, Nov 28 2024
• Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges – WSJ, Nov 29 2024
• How Russia’s economy reached breaking point– Telegraph, Dec 7 2024
• Russia’s economy is entering a year of pain in 2025 – Business Insider, Dec 25 2024
• Russian Economy is on the Brink of Collapse – Modern Diplomacy, Jan 3 2025
• Russian Economy Time Bomb: Putin Warned of ‘Seismically Disruptive’ War Debt – Newsweek, Jan 13 2025
• Addicted to War: Undermining Russia’s Economy – CEPA.org, Feb 5 2025
• Russia’s economy is stagnating – but that won’t force it to end the war – The Conservation, Mar 10 2025
• Russia needs monetary policy changes to avert a recession, says economy minister – Reuters, Jun 19 2025
• The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin?– Guardian, Feb 6 2026
• Russia economy in meltdown as oil and gas revenues plummet to five-year low – Daily Express, Feb 6 2026
• Putin’s war economy is on the verge of implosion – Telegraph, Feb 9 2026

 

[Saint]

Have we heard all this before about russian economy? Ground hog day. Its always projection for the west

• Russia economy: What is the risk of meltdown?– BBC, Dec 17 2014
• Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse – Atlantic, Mar 2 2022
• What’s awaiting Russia may be much worse than the chaos of 1990s – Aljazeerah, Mar 4 2022
• The Russian economy is headed for collapse – The Conversation, Mar 10 2022
• Russia admits it faces economic collapse over Putin’s war – Telegraph, May 9 2022
• ‘Slower burn.’ Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline has started – CNN, Aug 29 2022
• Russia admits it was on the verge of economic collapse – Business Insider, Nov 20 2023
• Why the Russian Economy’s Luck is Running Out – Moscow Times, Nov 21 2023
• Putin under pressure as Russian economy on verge of freefall after US ‘ultimatum’ – Express, May 4 2024
• Russian Economy Faces ‘Creeping Crisis’, Economists Warn – Newsweek, Jul 8 2024
• Russia’s weakened energy trade and lost access to the dollar will spark a severe recession within a year – Business Insider, Jul 13 2024
• An economic catastrophe is lurking beneath Russia’s GDP growth as Putin ‘throws everything into the fireplace’ – Fortune, Aug 19 2024
• The war in Ukraine is straining Russia’s economy and society – Economist, Nov 28 2024
• Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges – WSJ, Nov 29 2024
• How Russia’s economy reached breaking point– Telegraph, Dec 7 2024
• Russia’s economy is entering a year of pain in 2025 – Business Insider, Dec 25 2024
• Russian Economy is on the Brink of Collapse – Modern Diplomacy, Jan 3 2025
• Russian Economy Time Bomb: Putin Warned of ‘Seismically Disruptive’ War Debt – Newsweek, Jan 13 2025
• Addicted to War: Undermining Russia’s Economy – CEPA.org, Feb 5 2025
• Russia’s economy is stagnating – but that won’t force it to end the war – The Conservation, Mar 10 2025
• Russia needs monetary policy changes to avert a recession, says economy minister – Reuters, Jun 19 2025
• The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin?– Guardian, Feb 6 2026
• Russia economy in meltdown as oil and gas revenues plummet to five-year low – Daily Express, Feb 6 2026
• Putin’s war economy is on the verge of implosion – Telegraph, Feb 9 2026

Nobody thought they could prop it up this long.

First they got around the sanctions, then they borrowed money from Russian Banks.

The sanctions are becoming more enforced and there's no more money to borrow from Russian Banks.

The banks which lent money to the Government are probably already insolvent. It's just a matter of time until it all unravels. It probably won't be until the end of the year that it completely unravels. It will probably start with the Government nationalising the banks it owes money to and then wiping the balance sheets.

The main question I have is, who is keeping the price of Rubles up and how? Inflation is over 8% per annum, but the Ruble is staying high. I'm guessing they're just doing a bit of bog-standard currency manipulation and shipping gold off to China.

 

[Zidane98]

Nobody thought they could prop it up this long.

First they got around the sanctions, then they borrowed money from Russian Banks.

The sanctions are becoming more enforced and there's no more money to borrow from Russian Banks.

The banks which lent money to the Government are probably already insolvent. It's just a matter of time until it all unravels. It probably won't be until the end of the year that it completely unravels. It will probably start with the Government nationalising the banks it owes money to and then wiping the balance sheets.

The main question I have is, who is keeping the price of Rubles up and how? Inflation is over 8% per annum, but the Ruble is staying high. I'm guessing they're just doing a bit of bog-standard currency manipulation and shipping gold off to China.

Putin has been pillaging gold reserves and the national wealth fund to prop up the economy.


Last year Russia had to suspend ruble trading to prevent total collapse.


Latest tricks are increases in VAT to mitigate invasion economic losses but it's not working. While at the same time trying to keep 16% inflation under control with a war based economy.

Now shadow fleet tankers are being seized or prevented from accessing Baltic Sea ports which has resulted in Putin actually switching their flags to Russia in a hope that the threat of Russian naval action will prevent further seizures. Tankers using the Black Sea are being regularly taken out by Ukranian drones, both aerially & navally. If you watch shadow fleet tanker tracking upon returning to Russian Black sea ports they actually stay within a short distance of the Turkish shoreline inside Turkish waters all the way back to port in a hope that Ukraine won't take them out in NATO waters.

Two of their biggest oil customers, Hungary & India, are now basically cut off from Russian oil and are purchasing elsewhere.

Ukraine dominates the Russian oil refinery industry right now, attacking & disabling assets as they please. This is going to build up a massive surplus of oil that needs sending somewhere. China's the best option but they know how desperate Russia is and are basically taking Russia to the cleaners over pricing.

In the background, Putin spends billions of cruise / ballsitic missiles. Hands over Russian gold reserves to Iranians in exchange for suicide drones, ballistic missiles.

It is clear that without a short term victory Putin is doomed. You mentioned that Putin won't withdraw - things may eventually get so dire that he cannot afford to continue.

 

[steve strange]

Nobody thought they could prop it up this long.

First they got around the sanctions, then they borrowed money from Russian Banks.

The sanctions are becoming more enforced and there's no more money to borrow from Russian Banks.

The banks which lent money to the Government are probably already insolvent. It's just a matter of time until it all unravels. It probably won't be until the end of the year that it completely unravels. It will probably start with the Government nationalising the banks it owes money to and then wiping the balance sheets.

The main question I have is, who is keeping the price of Rubles up and how? Inflation is over 8% per annum, but the Ruble is staying high. I'm guessing they're just doing a bit of bog-standard currency manipulation and shipping gold off to China.

Yeah nobody. Just more western propaganda

 

[Zidane98]

Yeah nobody. Just more western propaganda

Just like the collapse of the USSR was also western propaganda comrade.

 

[Aussie in exile]

barreness having a shocker this week with the English language.

AI sometimes does not translate well from Cyrillic eh tovarisch.

Lets hope they book them English classes soon.

 

[wannabejack]

Belarus is bordered by three EU countries. russia has military bases in Belarus and stations tactical nuclear weapons in the country.
Yet russia won’t have EU peacekeepers in Ukraine.

EU Demands Russian Troop Withdrawal From Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Transnistria in Ukraine Peace Framework

An internal EU paper circulated by Kaja Kallas calls for a ban on Russian military deployments in Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova’s Transnistria as part of any comprehensive Ukraine settlement.

www.kyivpost.com

The paper calls for a “ban of Russian military presence and deployments in Belarus, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Armenia,” as well as the removal of any nuclear weapons from Belarus.

Russian forces have long been stationed in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in Moldova’s Transnistria, at bases in Armenia, and in Belarus, which served as a launchpad for the 2022 invasion.

By tying Russian troop withdrawals from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Transnistria to any settlement, Brussels is signaling that, in its view, a Ukraine deal must address the broader European security landscape.

 

[steve strange]

Just like the collapse of the USSR was also western propaganda comrade.

they didnt write that it would as they didnt see that coming ziobot . Youre historically illiterate

 

[steve strange]

Putin has been pillaging gold reserves and the national wealth fund to prop up the economy.


Last year Russia had to suspend ruble trading to prevent total collapse.


Latest tricks are increases in VAT to mitigate invasion economic losses but it's not working. While at the same time trying to keep 16% inflation under control with a war based economy.

Now shadow fleet tankers are being seized or prevented from accessing Baltic Sea ports which has resulted in Putin actually switching their flags to Russia in a hope that the threat of Russian naval action will prevent further seizures. Tankers using the Black Sea are being regularly taken out by Ukranian drones, both aerially & navally. If you watch shadow fleet tanker tracking upon returning to Russian Black sea ports they actually stay within a short distance of the Turkish shoreline inside Turkish waters all the way back to port in a hope that Ukraine won't take them out in NATO waters.

Two of their biggest oil customers, Hungary & India, are now basically cut off from Russian oil and are purchasing elsewhere.

Ukraine dominates the Russian oil refinery industry right now, attacking & disabling assets as they please. This is going to build up a massive surplus of oil that needs sending somewhere. China's the best option but they know how desperate Russia is and are basically taking Russia to the cleaners over pricing.

In the background, Putin spends billions of cruise / ballsitic missiles. Hands over Russian gold reserves to Iranians in exchange for suicide drones, ballistic missiles.

It is clear that without a short term victory Putin is doomed. You mentioned that Putin won't withdraw - things may eventually get so dire that he cannot afford to continue.

Any day now . Doomed. Blah blah blah