Breakout player for 2026

[fairdinks]

There have been some nice write ups/comments about Mraz this pre-season and on what he showed in 2025.

The big question is how does he slot into the 23 as a regular and in his preferred position. It would appear he is ready but someone else needs to be moved aside or out for this to happen.

I understand there will be possible injuries and occasionally resting players, but he needs his spot and to be able to make it his own.

It will be very interesting if/when he gets a game if he is a standout. EG, cannot be dropped. I reckon a few games alongside Barrass would be great learning, but not sure they both play in a final if everyone is fit.

Nice problem??

 

[kazzooka]

There have been some nice write ups/comments about Mraz this pre-season and on what he showed in 2025.

The big question is how does he slot into the 23 as a regular and in his preferred position. It would appear he is ready but someone else needs to be moved aside or out for this to happen.

I understand there will be possible injuries and occasionally resting players, but he needs his spot and to be able to make it his own.

It will be very interesting if/when he gets a game if he is a standout. EG, cannot be dropped. I reckon a few games alongside Barrass would be great learning, but not sure they both play in a final if everyone is fit.

Nice problem??

I don't expect him to break into the best 23 as a regular this year. But I think playing at least a few games in a reasonable expectation.

By all reports he's ahead of Blank and McCabe (who's been moved forward and occasionally wing). Serong, Frost and CJ gone, and Weddle needed in midfield and forward. That puts him first in line if Barrass, Battle, Scrimshaw or Sicily miss games. And it's unlikely that all 4 play every single game.

 

[Ka Norkers]

Mraz: this guy will get a good look at it this year. He is AFL quality, and if he doesn't get a go (which is, IMO, highly unlikely) he will follow the Jai Serong path out the door.
Whilst it is great having depth, it is extremely difficult to simply keep playing these types in the VFL, when other clubs are in their ear telling them they will get a good shot at it.

 

[Del236379]

Mraz: this guy will get a good look at it this year. He is AFL quality, and if he doesn't get a go (which is, IMO, highly unlikely) he will follow the Jai Serong path out the door.
Whilst it is great having depth, it is extremely difficult to simply keep playing these types in the VFL, when other clubs are in their ear telling them they will get a good shot at it.

He signed an extension until the end of 2028. No issues right now.

He'll get games this year before being a lock from at the latest 2028 when Barrass finishes up.

He knows the long term plan.

 

[Hawks91b]

There will inevitably be injuries, so he should get a shot as long as he's not out at the wrong time

 

[Coach Killer]

Mraz: for me, he starts at CHB in best 23 and stays there for the next 12 years.

TB & Mraz are our 2 best KPB. We haven’t had 2 genuine gun KPB since Lake & Chip and we won 3 flags with that set up.

Everyone else can rotate around them 2. Battle, Sicily & Scrim arn’t KPB - they’ve been great playing that roll, they’ll be even better not playing that roll.

Mraz = Gun

 

[Judd2Sewell]

It's hard to see where the debuts would naturally come from, barring injuries affecting the side.

I'm hoping the breakout player is Mackenzie. We need that to happen. Hopefully Butler too.

And though I suppose it's not necessarily a "break out," as he's already a good HFF - but it seems MacDonald could have a breakout season as a genuine midfielder. Fingers crossed he's ready as he would be a classy addition.

 

[yeahbuddy0310]

Watch out for Charlie Combien

14 Intercept possessions on the weekend. I had him BOG which I'm sure will be controversial but his defensive game was elite.

He will be the breakout player this season.

why would a north melbourne CHB be a breakout player for Hawthorn?

 

[JHF1870]

why would a north melbourne CHB be a breakout player for Hawthorn?

oops, my bad. I came here from Google. I was looking for the AFL thread of this. My apologies.

Weddle to be breakout

Also Loving The Wizard too.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

oops, my bad. I came here from Google. I was looking for the AFL thread of this. My apologies.

Weddle to be breakout

Also Loving The Wizard too.

Hilarious!!

 

[ReturningHawk]

Can Mackenzie is the player we most need to break out. He just needs to get 20+ touches consistently, because he uses it so well.

I’d love to see some fresh faces too. Perez, Hill, Mraz, Greeves, Dalton, Schubert. They all have the capacity to help us this year.

 

[killerspud]

My gut is telling me Butler - he feels like he could be a great small defender, a great pressure forward and a very solid mid - hope he gets alot of game time. Along with Ward, McDonald and McKenzie I feel he is a nucleus player

 

[Tomohawks]

My gut is telling me Butler - he feels like he could be a great small defender, a great pressure forward and a very solid mid - hope he gets alot of game time. Along with Ward, McDonald and McKenzie I feel he is a nucleus player

Plus, it helps that he can seriously run too given the way the game seems to be played this year so far. He can play a few different roles which fits suits Sam's plan well.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Can Mackenzie is the player we most need to break out. He just needs to get 20+ touches consistently, because he uses it so well.

I’d love to see some fresh faces too. Perez, Hill, Mraz, Greeves, Dalton, Schubert. They all have the capacity to help us this year.

Agree on cmac. But I doubt will have many debuts this year. Unless there are injuries

Maybe the shoe if he keeps impressing!

 

[ReturningHawk]

Agree on cmac. But I doubt will have many debuts this year. Unless there are injuries

Maybe the shoe if he keeps impressing!

Don’t see how we go without debuting at least 3 players. Calsher Dear was the last debutant. Have to find out about the likes of McCabe and Hill, they might bring that same spark to the team that Calsher and Watson did.

 

[kazzooka]

Don’t see how we go without debuting at least 3 players. Calsher Dear was the last debutant. Have to find out about the likes of McCabe and Hill, they might bring that same spark to the team that Calsher and Watson did.

Ethan Phillips was actually our last debutant.

But agree, we need McCabe, Ryan and probably Hill and Mraz to debut. It would be naive to think Sicily, Barrass, Scrimshaw and Battle play every single game. That will be an opportunity for Mraz and Ryan.

McCabe needs to rely on Weddle or Dambrosio to get injured. But I think as a wingman he is on track based on form to be an inciting option over Morrison or Maginness.

I don't currently see any off them locking away a spot in the team, but I see it more as a get them a taste scenario.

The spark will come from guys who were fringe the last few years and have not many games but now have a free run at it. Butler, Mackenzie, Reeves, Ramsden, Bailey MacDonald.

 

[ppphawk]

5 rounds in now and for me the best step ups in career best output is Ginnivan (selected by only 2 - Tall Tales and True , Simon Crawshay)

Never thought Reeves would have the impact he is having (which is fantastic, and good on those who called it early).
Wiz is at career best, and also CMAC.
Who else have I missed?

Will be interesting to see how the rest of the season unfolds.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

5 rounds in now and for me the best step ups in career best output is Ginnivan (selected by only 2 - Tall Tales and True , Simon Crawshay)

Never thought Reeves would have the impact he is having (which is fantastic, and good on those who called it early).
Wiz is at career best, and also CMAC.
Who else have I missed?

Will be interesting to see how the rest of the season unfolds.

Last time Reeves played with these rules for example in 2023.

Averages of
8 disposals
65%
5.4 contested (64% contested poss rate)
28 hitouts
8.7 to advantage
50% hitout win rate
30.7% to advantage
56 ruck contests
1.5 marks 0.4 contested
0.1 goals 0.3 shots
3.2 score inv 2.5 score launches
2.7 tackles

In 2026 in shared duties and less tog:
8.3 disposals
70%
4.8 contested (59.4% contested poss rate)
26.5 hitouts
10.3 to advantage
62.4% hitout win rate
38.7% to advantage
42.5 ruck contests
1 mark
0.8 goals 1.3 shots
1.3 goal assists 6.3 score inv 5 score launches
1.8 tackles

Would like to see him use his size more around the ground to mark, as he has good mits, good size and a pretty good kick for a lanky ruck.

His hitouts are slightly less but with 10+ less contests, a much better win rate, better to advantage rate, providing silver service. He’s gotten forward and is kicking goals (2 in one game and another 1 over a few games). It is shown tho how effective his taps are, and when he’s involved that he has such high goal assists, score inv and score launches.

Wiz
2025
11 disp @ 73%
2 inside 50s
5.4 contested poss 0.6 clearances
4 ground ball gets
2 marks
36 goals total in 25 games
1.4 goals 2.6 shots
0.5 goal assists 5 score inv
2 tackles 0.8 inside 50 9 pressure acts

2026
15.4 disposals @ 73%
3.2 inside 50s
7 contested poss 1.2 clearances
6 ground ball gets
3 marks
11 goals total in 5 games (@ the rate of 2.2 with 25 games he’d kick 55 goals)
2.2 goals 4.2 shots
1.2 goal assists 7 score inv
3.2 tackles 1.6 inside 50 11 pressure acts

More footy, more contested, more clearances and around the ball. More marks and ground ball gets. He’s kicking more goals, he’s having more shots, setting more up, and being involved in more. Meanwhile he’s also pressuring more and tackling more.

He’s in superb form and would be in the current AA side.

CMac
2025
15 disposals @ 69%
9 kicks 3 inside 50s
4.4 contested poss 0.8 clearances
4 marks
0.9 goals 1.9 shots
0.7 goal assists 5.4 score inv
3 tackles 13 pressure acts

2026
22.6 disposals @ 68%
15 kicks 4.8 inside 50s
7.6 contested poss 2.6 clearances
5 marks
0.6 2.4 shots
1 goal assist 8.2 score inv
2.8 tackles 15 pressure acts

CMac is probably my pick for most improved so far. Wiz has been awesome but was still better last year, CMac has made the biggest jump and as the genuine centre and high half forward he’s been awesome rotating using his pace, workrate, skill and toughness. So classy and creative.

I’ll add Ward to this too
2025
20.6 disposals @ 73%
7.8 contested poss 3.3 clearances
3.7 inside 50s
0.1 goals 0.4 shots
0.5 goal assists 5.3 score inv
3.6 tackles 16 pressure acts

2026
22.8 disposals @ 69%
7.4 contested poss 2.4 clearances
4.4 inside 50s
0.4 shots on goal
0.6 goal assists 6 score inv
3.6 tackles 15 pressure acts

Similar to last year, probably some quieter games but a couple really high accumulation ones which is what he needs to breakout. He’s so classy and such a good user with his power, pace, workrate and elite ball use, the more the better. Has a lot of improvement which is the exciting part.

I’ll also do Ginni quickly who we all know has had a super year, and about half way through or just over last year he has been at an AA level. Just taking it to another level this year.

2025
18.6 disposals @ 64%
6 contested poss 1.2 clearances
3.5 inside 50s
3.6 marks
1.2 goals 1.9 shots
0.6 goal assists
5.6 score inv
2.1 tackles 13 pressure acts

2026
21.2 disposals @ 70%
7 contested poss 2 clearances
4.6 inside 50s
7 marks
1.2 goals 2.4 shots
1.6 goal assists 7 score inv
1.2 tackles 11 pressure acts

Most improvement
1. Cmac
2. Wiz
3. Ginni
4. Ward
5. Reeves

Best season
1. Wiz
2. Ginni
3. Cmac
4. Ward
5. Reeves

 

[I got the outside word]

There are a few on the list having very good seasons. Don’t hate it.

 

[ppphawk]

Last time Reeves played with these rules for example in 2023.

Averages of
8 disposals
65%
5.4 contested (64% contested poss rate)
28 hitouts
8.7 to advantage
50% hitout win rate
30.7% to advantage
56 ruck contests
1.5 marks 0.4 contested
0.1 goals 0.3 shots
3.2 score inv 2.5 score launches
2.7 tackles

In 2026 in shared duties and less tog:
8.3 disposals
70%
4.8 contested (59.4% contested poss rate)
26.5 hitouts
10.3 to advantage
62.4% hitout win rate
38.7% to advantage
42.5 ruck contests
1 mark
0.8 goals 1.3 shots
1.3 goal assists 6.3 score inv 5 score launches
1.8 tackles

Would like to see him use his size more around the ground to mark, as he has good mits, good size and a pretty good kick for a lanky ruck.

His hitouts are slightly less but with 10+ less contests, a much better win rate, better to advantage rate, providing silver service. He’s gotten forward and is kicking goals (2 in one game and another 1 over a few games). It is shown tho how effective his taps are, and when he’s involved that he has such high goal assists, score inv and score launches.

Wiz
2025
11 disp @ 73%
2 inside 50s
5.4 contested poss 0.6 clearances
4 ground ball gets
2 marks
36 goals total in 25 games
1.4 goals 2.6 shots
0.5 goal assists 5 score inv
2 tackles 0.8 inside 50 9 pressure acts

2026
15.4 disposals @ 73%
3.2 inside 50s
7 contested poss 1.2 clearances
6 ground ball gets
3 marks
11 goals total in 5 games (@ the rate of 2.2 with 25 games he’d kick 55 goals)
2.2 goals 4.2 shots
1.2 goal assists 7 score inv
3.2 tackles 1.6 inside 50 11 pressure acts

More footy, more contested, more clearances and around the ball. More marks and ground ball gets. He’s kicking more goals, he’s having more shots, setting more up, and being involved in more. Meanwhile he’s also pressuring more and tackling more.

He’s in superb form and would be in the current AA side.

CMac
2025
15 disposals @ 69%
9 kicks 3 inside 50s
4.4 contested poss 0.8 clearances
4 marks
0.9 goals 1.9 shots
0.7 goal assists 5.4 score inv
3 tackles 13 pressure acts

2026
22.6 disposals @ 68%
15 kicks 4.8 inside 50s
7.6 contested poss 2.6 clearances
5 marks
0.6 2.4 shots
1 goal assist 8.2 score inv
2.8 tackles 15 pressure acts

CMac is probably my pick for most improved so far. Wiz has been awesome but was still better last year, CMac has made the biggest jump and as the genuine centre and high half forward he’s been awesome rotating using his pace, workrate, skill and toughness. So classy and creative.

I’ll add Ward to this too
2025
20.6 disposals @ 73%
7.8 contested poss 3.3 clearances
3.7 inside 50s
0.1 goals 0.4 shots
0.5 goal assists 5.3 score inv
3.6 tackles 16 pressure acts

2026
22.8 disposals @ 69%
7.4 contested poss 2.4 clearances
4.4 inside 50s
0.4 shots on goal
0.6 goal assists 6 score inv
3.6 tackles 15 pressure acts

Similar to last year, probably some quieter games but a couple really high accumulation ones which is what he needs to breakout. He’s so classy and such a good user with his power, pace, workrate and elite ball use, the more the better. Has a lot of improvement which is the exciting part.

I’ll also do Ginni quickly who we all know has had a super year, and about half way through or just over last year he has been at an AA level. Just taking it to another level this year.

2025
18.6 disposals @ 64%
6 contested poss 1.2 clearances
3.5 inside 50s
3.6 marks
1.2 goals 1.9 shots
0.6 goal assists
5.6 score inv
2.1 tackles 13 pressure acts

2026
21.2 disposals @ 70%
7 contested poss 2 clearances
4.6 inside 50s
7 marks
1.2 goals 2.4 shots
1.6 goal assists 7 score inv
1.2 tackles 11 pressure acts

Most improvement
1. Cmac
2. Wiz
3. Ginni
4. Ward
5. Reeves

Best season
1. Wiz
2. Ginni
3. Cmac
4. Ward
5. Reeves

Thanks for sharing, some great statistically analysis here. One of the things I’ve loved about ginnis game and Moore for that fact is that we don’t seem them playing for high tackles. That and a more selfless brand (+1 goal assist).

Still early in the season but great to see a number of the team have career bests. Let’s go and smash port today.