Player Watch #10 Taj Hotton - Hip Stress 6-8

[_DBF_]

missing 95% of the season even though it was only a 7 weeker when it happened

Hotton? They said it would be up to 4 months when it was originally reported.

 

[Groupie_]

Hotton? They said it would be up to 4 months when it was originally reported.

yeah and its gonna be season pretty much plus the month before the season

 

[_DBF_]

yeah and its gonna be season pretty much plus the month before the season

He’s on track for first week post bye which will have been 4 months.

 

[Grrr]

yeah and its gonna be season pretty much plus the month before the season

He did it 24th Feb, 2 weeks before rd.1. 16 week injury. It's been 10 weeks, so 6-8 is looking about what you would expect.
Might be ready for the last 10 games if all goes well.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

All recruiters would take Reid over Hotton right now. I’m not talking about Cumming, he’s from a different draft, so that’s not part of the comparison.


My point is simple: at this stage, Smillie, Hotton, and especially Faull have not been as strong picks as Murphy Reid. Smillie and Hotton haven’t been able to get on the park, and Faull isn’t even close to Reid’s level. All these picks were just before him.


Whether Reid is in a strong side or not doesn’t change that. If anything, it’s harder to break into a better team, and he’s still one of their best performers.

The jury is out on Richmond's drafting, you're allowed to admit it.

The jury is out on everyone's drafting especially when you are talking about players still well short of their prime.

You have no reliable way of knowing whether AFL recruiters would value Reid or Hotton more highly and neither do I. If you are talking about recruiting one of them to play this week or this season, sure I would agree recruiters are taking Reid. If you are talking about which player will be better when the whips are cracking in their respective primes, that is a very different question. They both came out of the same Sandy Dragons u/18 team, and in the games they played together, and this is coming to me from someone who watched every game they played that season, Hotton was on another level when compared to Reid. In his words, Hotton was the best player they saw from any team that season, easily.

Just ask yourself this question, if it was Reid missing most of this season with a hip issue and Hotton continued on as expected from his late season form last year, would you be calling our selection of Hotton over Reid into question? Do you think our recruiters are at fault for not identifying in advance Hotton would have a long term injury in year two while Reid would not(to this point at least?)

 

[Groupie_]

He’s on track for first week post bye which will have been 4 months.

he wont play this year u watch

 

[clark1980]

with the training reports the last couple of weeks, you have seen sims and hotton with the group. so obviously they are doing some bits and pieces of training. sims ready to go full into training and hotton a little behind. 6-8 weeks gets us to r14-16. it'll be exciting !!!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

he wont play this year u watch

You said that last year Gru. How many times do you want to be wrong in one life?

 

[TigerDurden]

The jury is out on everyone's drafting especially when you are talking about players still well short of their prime.

You have no reliable way of knowing whether AFL recruiters would value Reid or Hotton more highly and neither do I. If you are talking about recruiting one of them to play this week or this season, sure I would agree recruiters are taking Reid. If you are talking about which player will be better when the whips are cracking in their respective primes, that is a very different question. They both came out of the same Sandy Dragons u/18 team, and in the games they played together, and this is coming to me from someone who watched every game they played that season, Hotton was on another level when compared to Reid. In his words, Hotton was the best player they saw from any team that season, easily.

Just ask yourself this question, if it was Reid missing most of this season with a hip issue and Hotton continued on as expected from his late season form last year, would you be calling our selection of Hotton over Reid into question? Do you think our recruiters are at fault for not identifying in advance Hotton would have a long term injury in year two while Reid would not(to this point at least?)

I get your point about it being early, but there were known factors at the time that make the comparison fair.


Hotton had already done an ACL at 17–18 from a pretty routine turn at training. That’s not just hindsight, its a genuine durability issue recruiters would weigh up.


Reid, on the other hand, was very highly rated across the board. Fremantle had him in their top 3, and plenty of others were in the same range. I had him there as well. So it’s not like this is coming out of nowhere now, the view on him was strong pre draft. Richmond interviewed him multiple times.


Then you look at Smillie. In hindsight, taking him at 7 looks like a reach 12 months later. Even in the VFL last year he looked like he struggled to get out of first gear at times, which raises questions. And more broadly, the game is shifting. Big bodied mids are becoming less valuable compared to players who can run, transition, and impact both ways. That trend is pretty clear and worrying that our recruiters didnt see it at the time.

You can argue upside all you want, but right now Reid already looks like a genuine AFL player. And when a guy is producing early, in a good side, that’s a strong indicator he’s got it.

I hope I’m wrong long term, but at this stage it’s hard to argue Reid isn’t clearly ahead.

 

[Groupie_]

You said that last year Gru. How many times do you want to be wrong in one life?

this coming from the biggest supporter of louie and now serpell

 

[Wooden Robot]

Lol, Reid is ahead of Lalor in Supercoach and Fantasy points, which view the game like you seem to, they more or less just reward players who get the ball more.

When you look at the more comprehensive player ratings that take everything into account, including your pressure and the effectiveness of your disposals, and how you get the ball in the first place, Lalor is comfortably ahead. This is because what Lalor does is both more valuable and more difficult to replicate than what Murphy Reid does.

And this is Lalor playing in a malfunctioning team and Reid playing in a high functioning team. If you allowed for that very significant factor, Lalor is on a complete different level to Murphy Reid as a player.

Freo are high functioning because of, in good part, to what Reid does.
He has a Rising Star for a reason and has elevated his game to another level this season.
Everyone bar Richmond supporters would agree Reid to this point has had the better output and influence.
But dream on 13-year-old.

 

[Wooden Robot]

Exactly. Reid is surrounded by superstars in every line and the likes of Serong, Brayshaw, Young, Bolton who cop the most heat from oppo every week. His circumstances are ideal to show his best. Our youngsters are exposed but they will learn.

How time's change.
Six, eight, nine years ago, 'WE DON'T' win flags without Caddy, Castagna, Lambert, Grigg, Townsend ... or so I read on here. So many cases made for certain players surrounded by A-listers like Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia, Grimes on every line.
But Reid is riding on everyone else's coattails.
Ok!!

 

[captain cotch 9]

I get your point about it being early, but there were known factors at the time that make the comparison fair.


Hotton had already done an ACL at 17–18 from a pretty routine turn at training. That’s not just hindsight, its a genuine durability issue recruiters would weigh up.


Reid, on the other hand, was very highly rated across the board. Fremantle had him in their top 3, and plenty of others were in the same range. I had him there as well. So it’s not like this is coming out of nowhere now, the view on him was strong pre draft. Richmond interviewed him multiple times.


Then you look at Smillie. In hindsight, taking him at 7 looks like a reach 12 months later. Even in the VFL last year he looked like he struggled to get out of first gear at times, which raises questions. And more broadly, the game is shifting. Big bodied mids are becoming less valuable compared to players who can run, transition, and impact both ways. That trend is pretty clear and worrying that our recruiters didnt see it at the time.

You can argue upside all you want, but right now Reid already looks like a genuine AFL player. And when a guy is producing early, in a good side, that’s a strong indicator he’s got it.

I hope I’m wrong long term, but at this stage it’s hard to argue Reid isn’t clearly ahead.

Smillie was talked about being a #1 pick for most of the year.

Remember that kid Tom Scully. He had a good start to his career.....Another kid....D.Martin came past and had a better career.
Lets just wait 5 years.

 

[Wooden Robot]

Another in a long line of fools over-rating players who are fed the ball by decent teams and under-rating players who have a real impact in weaker teams.

View attachment 2603041

So Finn O'Sullivan is better than Lalor ... we all agree.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I get your point about it being early, but there were known factors at the time that make the comparison fair.


Hotton had already done an ACL at 17–18 from a pretty routine turn at training. That’s not just hindsight, its a genuine durability issue recruiters would weigh up.


Reid, on the other hand, was very highly rated across the board. Fremantle had him in their top 3, and plenty of others were in the same range. I had him there as well. So it’s not like this is coming out of nowhere now, the view on him was strong pre draft. Richmond interviewed him multiple times.


Then you look at Smillie. In hindsight, taking him at 7 looks like a reach 12 months later. Even in the VFL last year he looked like he struggled to get out of first gear at times, which raises questions. And more broadly, the game is shifting. Big bodied mids are becoming less valuable compared to players who can run, transition, and impact both ways. That trend is pretty clear and worrying that our recruiters didnt see it at the time.

You can argue upside all you want, but right now Reid already looks like a genuine AFL player. And when a guy is producing early, in a good side, that’s a strong indicator he’s got it.

I hope I’m wrong long term, but at this stage it’s hard to argue Reid isn’t clearly ahead.

It is fair enough to say Reid is ahead of Hotton and Smillie on output at AFL level so far, nobody can argue with that.

To my knowledge Reid was generally seen as a fringe top 10 type player in that draft pool. If Richmond had recruited him over Hotton, it would have been a good safe pick, no arguments there. Richmond went for the guys with the most potential upside, Lalor, Smillie and Hotton, who all have characteristics that are not easy to replicate. If they all end up fit and firing in their primes, missing out on Murphy Reid will not even be the slightest issue.

If you look at our flag teams, and that was a team that lost one single game that mattered in a 4 year period. Look at all the prime movers in that, and the really good role players. Loads of them were spoken down about during losing periods. I had someone I know who follows footy closely with a straight face tell me North's recruiting had shit all over Richmond's around 2011. After Richmond's dynasty I asked if he remembered saying that, he said he was just joking to wind me up. He wasn't joking when he said it. And he was not only wrong, but shockingly wrong. One team was headed for the bottom and the other for the very top, both largely based on recruiting in the years in question, and he had got them the wrong way around. I think that is the danger of trying to work out who is the better draft pick by who appears to play best in their first few years.

Here is a list of the top 20 rated performers from the 2017 and 2018 draft classes during the 2019 season.

Below is a list of that same cohort in the 2025 season. There are only 9 players on both lists. And of those 9 there are some quite radical shifts in their rankings. I am sure people all over this website(all club's boards) were posting in 2019 why didn't we get Worpel, why didn't we get Stack, Stephenson is a gun, Higgins is a jet, Oscar Allen, Taryn Thomas etc.

 

[TigerDurden]

Smillie was talked about being a #1 pick for most of the year.

Remember that kid Tom Scully. He had a good start to his career.....Another kid....D.Martin came past and had a better career.
Lets just wait 5 years.

Yeah he was talked about early as a #1, no doubt, but there’s a reason he didn’t go there.

As the year went on the talk around him changed a bit. Clubs started to question his impact compared to other mids. The same things kept coming up:

• didn’t have much burst
• not a big transition runner
• didn’t hurt teams enough going the other way
• could dominate at times but not consistently

That’s the concern because it lines up with where the game is going now. Midfielders aren’t just inside anymore, they have to run, link up, and move the ball. The bigger, slower mids are starting to get exposed a bit. ( Cripps, Oliver, our whipping boy Hopper)

You saw it late in his draft year too, he just wasn’t separating himself like a clear #1 should. That’s why he slid, clubs reassessed him based on what the AFL game actually looks like now. Fast forward 12 months and Oli Greeves goes undrafted until the rookie draft.

Then you compare that to Reid, he fits that modern type. Clean, dynamic, good decision maker, impacts in transition, and he’s already showing it at AFL level.

The Scully example actually proves the point as well. Early hype doesn’t mean it plays out that way. The guys that suit where the game is heading usually go past.

Happy to wait 5 years, but early signs do matter, and right now it’s pretty clear who’s ahead.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So Finn O'Sullivan is better than Lalor ... we all agree.

Finn O'Sullivan is a brilliant player.

Last year richoatthedisco was copping flak from people all over this site for having rated him the number one player in that draft. Those people have been made to look foolish.

Lalor is also a brilliant player. These two guys are miles ahead of Murphy Reid.

 

[TigerDurden]

Finn O'Sullivan is a brilliant player.

Last year richoatthedisco was copping flak from people all over this site for having rated him the number one player in that draft. Those people have been made to look foolish.

Lalor is also a brilliant player. These two guys are miles ahead of Murphy Reid.

Finn’s a gun, and so is our Sammy. The difference at the moment is durability.

Finn has been able to stay on the park and build continuity, which is huge early in a career. Lalor’s had a few interruptions already, soft tissue issues and time missed, which isn’t ideal for a bigger bodied mid trying to build a base.


For that type of player, continuity is everything. If you’re in and out, it’s hard to develop the tank and consistency needed for the role.


Hopefully he gets a clean run at it, because the talent is there, but at the moment Finn’s just been able to put together his footy a bit more consistently.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

this coming from the biggest supporter of louie and now serpell

I learned from my bad experience with Meehan and turned on Serpell the Cats enemy agent before even you did Gru.

So we are 1-1.

 

[prodigy]

Yeah Lalor has been better than Reid

Have you watched Lalor? Murphy Reid is a great player but blind Freddy can see that Lalor has the potential to be one of the best players in the AFL.

 

[prodigy]

he wont play this year u watch

Hotton? I'll bet you any amount of money you like that he will.

 

[beema limapep]

he wont play this year u watch

And if he does - BAM. Reinjured and in the rehab group (aka Serpells Purples) til Round 6 2027.

 

[beema limapep]

Smillie was talked about being a #1 pick for most of the year.

Remember that kid Tom Scully. He had a good start to his career.....Another kid....D.Martin came past and had a better career.
Lets just wait 5 years.

Some of us late Gen Xers don't have 5 years to muck around. Father time is linear and unforgiving. It better be 2 to 3 years max.

 

[Coach_Required]

Finn O'Sullivan is a brilliant player.

Last year richoatthedisco was copping flak from people all over this site for having rated him the number one player in that draft. Those people have been made to look foolish.

Lalor is also a brilliant player. These two guys are miles ahead of Murphy Reid.

Actually, half of us all agreed, however he also said Gawn was a spud so .....

 

[Wooden Robot]

Have you watched Lalor? Murphy Reid is a great player but blind Freddy can see that Lalor has the potential to be one of the best players in the AFL.

Have I watched Lalor .... dumb question.
Read what I'm saying.
Lalor will likely outdo him, but on current output and performance, Murphy Reid (who also has the potential to be a great player too and is on his way) is the better performed right NOW and most everyone would say that.
He has the runs on the board including a Rising Star and has elevated his game again.
Only Tigers supporters' egos being bruised here.
It's not a crime to admit some other clubs have good players or might have one currently better than one of ours, albeit hard on this board.
As for Hotton being better than Reid right now as suggested by Meteoric Stats man, lol. One of them hasn't even kicked a ball in anger this year.