SJ
Premium Platinum
AFL Premiership Round 8
Collingwood V Geelong
Collingwood V Geelong
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Match preview
Recent history
Last time they met
2011 AFL Grand Final, MCG
Geelong 4.3 8.6 13.7 18.11 (119)
Collingwood 4.2 9.3 12.6 12.9 (81)
The Cats proved that their Round 24 smashing of Collingwood was no fluke, and cemented their standing as one of the greatest teams of all time with their third premiership in five seasons. The first three stanzas were pulsating and breathtaking, as both team traded punch after punch with sublime skills under immense pressure and in wet conditions. Geelong broke the game open in the last stanza, kicking five goals to nil, with Tom Hawkins leading from the front at centre-half forward. Retiring captain Cameron Ling iced the game with the final goal of the season.
Head to head
Geelong has won the six of its past eight matches against Collingwood since 2009. Apart from a heartstopper won by the Cats in Round 8 last year all matches in this time have resulted in significant margins, with the average over this period being 42 points. Three of these matches have been finals.
In the five home and away games in this period, Joel Selwood has polled five Brownlow votse and Paul Chapman four.
On this ground
Geelong has won its only match at the MCG this year (100%) and in fact has won ten consecutive matches at the venue since the 2010 Preliminary Final loss to Collingwood. Prior to this it had only won three of its previous eight matches at the MCG.
Collingwood has won two of its four matches (50%) at the MCG in 2012, and four of its past eight matches at the venue. Prior to this it had won 26 of its previous 31 matches at the MCG, with two matches drawn.
Recent form
Geelong
Geelong has registered its worst start to the season (4-0-3 103.5%) since 2006. Last week's 50-point loss to Adelaide was the biggest the Cats have suffered since Round 8 2008 against Collingwood. In its three losses this year, Geelong has trailed by an average 17 points at quarter time.
Collingwood
Collingwood has won four consecutive matches following its Round 3 60-point loss to Carlton. Last week the Magpies registered their biggest win in 2012 with a 58-point win over Brisbane at the Gabba.
Number crunching
This year
Statistically both Geelong and Collingwood are similar in 2012, both registering mediocre numbers in many of the key areas.
Neither Geelong nor Collingwood are overpossessing the ball this season, with both actually conceding more disposals than they register over the first seven rounds. Geelong ranks 11th (-0.4) and Collingwood 12th (-8.8) in disposal differential per game, however both kick the ball more (Geelong +7.4, Collingwood +6.6) and handball less (Geelong -7.9, Collingwood -15.4) than their opposition.
As such you would expect both sides to outmark their opponents in turn, which is such in the case of the Cats (+12.0) however not the Magpies (-11.4). One of the biggest statistical drop-offs in Geelong's game this year is in its contested marking ability, falling from 16 per game (ranked 1st) in 2011 to 10 per game (ranked 14th) this season. Collingwood has also fallen back in this area, from 15 (3rd) to 11 per game (11th).
Neither team is often looked after by the umpires (maybe unsurprisingly considering they have less of the ball than their opponents), both giving away more free kicks per game than they receive (Geelong ranked last at -4.1 and Collingwood -1.7 per game). This may also be indicative of Geelong's much-discussed 'lack of discipline' in 2012.
At the stoppages, again both teams are similarly mediocre in the ruck losing more hitouts than they win (Geelong -7.0, Collingwood -6.4) however the Magpies are ranked fourth in the league in clearances (40 per game) and the Cats tenth (38). Arguably displaying two of the best and hardest midfields in recent years, again neither are shining brightly around the contested footy this season, as the Cats have not won that tally once in seven matches and are ranked 13th (141 per game) whilst the Magpies place higher in 6th (148).
It is thus not surprising that neither team enters its forward 50 more than average, again both teams midtable with Collingwood (54 per game) slightly outshining Geelong (53) resulting in a similar proportion of scoring shots (Collingwood 26 per game, Geelong 25).
As the Cats have less of the ball than their opponents, however kick more often yet are not a strong contested marking team, give away more free kicks than any other, lose the hitouts and are weak in clearances and contested footy, there is no surprise that they are struggling in season 2012.
Predicted ins and outs
Geelong
Geelong Cats
B: Matthew Scarlett, Tom Lonergan, Josh Hunt
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: James Kelly, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Steve Johnson, James Podsiadly, Steven Motlop
F: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Mathew Stokes
Foll: Orren Stephenson, Joel Corey, Taylor Hunt
I/C: Trent West, Mitch Duncan, Jesse Stringer, Cameron Guthrie
Emg: Shannon Byrnes, Billie Smedts, George Horlin-Smith
In: Jimmy Bartel, Matthew Scarlett, Mathew Stokes, Orren Stephenson
Out: Shannon Byrnes, Tom Gillies (Ankle), Allen Christensen (Calf), Billie Smedts
From 2011 Grand Final:
In: Steven Motlop, Taylor Hunt, Cameron Guthrie, Orren Stephenson, Jesse Stringer
Out: David Wojcinski, Travis Varcoe, Brad Ottens, Cameron Ling, Allen Christensen
Bartel and Scarlett return for their two late-ins against Adelaide. Christensen strained his calf last week and makes way for Stokes. Scott finally goes for the second ruck and picks Stephenson and drops Smedts who has been quiet lately.
Collingwood
B: Heritier O'Brien, Ben Reid, Alan Toovey
HB: Simon Buckley, Nick Maxwell, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dane Swan, Sharrod Wellingham, Jarryd Blair
HF: Heath Shaw, Chris Dawes, Ben Sinclair
F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Alan Didak
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom
I/C: Dale Thomas, Martin Clarke, Lachlan Keeffe, Alex Fasolo
Emg: Tom Young, Kirk Ugle, Paul Seedsman
In: Dale Thomas, Chris Dawes, Darren Jolly, Alex Fasolo
Out: Nathan Brown (Knee), Cameron Wood, Paul Seedsman, Peter Yagmoor
From 2011 Grand Final:
In: Simon Buckley, Tyson Goldsack, Ben Sinclair, Lachlan Keeffe
Out: Leon Davis, Luke Ball, Leigh Brown, Ben Johnson
Collingwood welcomes back some great ins after their ten-goal win over Brisbane at the Gabba. The Collingwood midfield machine is starting to click into gear, and Thomas and Fasolo only add to its depth. Jolly returns for Wood and will ruck solo to give the Magpies first use. Dawes returns to play the second key forward role.
Main men
Joel Selwood
The new Cats skipper has lead from the front in 2012 and has played well even when his teammates have falted. He leads the club in disposals (26.7 per game), contested possessions (14.3), clearances (7.5) and is running second in tackles (6.0). His attack on the ball is second to none and can never be questioned, even after a number of heavy hits this year. He requires a number of other surrounding Geelong midfielders to lift their intensity to help him out.
Tom Lonergan
The underrated Tom Lonergan has continued his fine form into 2012 after a wonderful 2011. Although Taylor Walker got off the leash a little last week, by no means was Lonergan disgraced in a backline ambushed for four quarters by the Adelaide midfield. Actually I though Tippett was the ideal match up for Lonergan however he was given the more dynamic of the two Crow talls instead. This week will be another test, with the possibility of either Dawes or Cloke. I expect Taylor to once again get first crack at Cloke but Lonergan may be required to stop him again, a la October last year.
Tom Hawkins
With Tarrant and Brown missing from the Collingwood outfit, Geelong finds itself with a comparative advantage in its key talls. One of O'Brien, Maxwell or Goldsack will need to play as a tall defender, giving Hawkins or Podsiadly a great chance to feature prominently in this match. But they need to take it! Last week, although faced with some horrendous delivery, I felt Hawkins was not positioning himself correct before and during the contest. His strengths are his running and jumping and he needs to be hitting the ball at pace in the air, and not waiting for it to land on his head in a wrestle. When playing at full forward he needs to be leading from the square and hitting the contest hard, rather than leading from 30 metres making him stop and prop. One of Hawkins or Podsiadly need to excel if Geelong is to win.
Taylor Hunt
The Magpie midfield is currently flying, which is something that may have slipped under the guard of the media. Swan and Pendlebury are back to the best, and since Ball's injury the new guard of Beams and Sidebottom have really stood up. Add Thomas into the mix this week and you have an elite top five. Hunt will be called on to do another job this week to limit the ouput of one of them. Dane Beams has been playing as an inside midfielder lately and as such I have a feeling Hunt may go to him, as it is both achievable for him to shut a younger player down and will also have a significant impact to the game.
Dane Swan
Without serial opponent Ling to follow Swan, I expect the Brownlow Medallist to have a large impact on the match. Not that he's been a poor performer against the Cats even when Ling was around. Although his output was limited on Grand Final day, Swan has averaged 26 disposals in his past nine matches against Geelong, facing the best tagger in the business. This year he leads Collingwood for disposals (33.6 per game, a career-high) and is second in contested possessions (12.9), clearances (5.7) and marks (6.3). He is a gut-running freak and should be admired by all football followers as the most disciplined of players, in it for the footy and not for the fame or fortune. He's a big chance for the best-on.
Scott Pendlebury
Pendlebury has become an elite player in recent years and these days I place him comfortably in the top five midfielders in the league and arguably towards the very top of that bracket. In 2012 he sits second in disposals per game at the Magpies (29.6 per game) and ranks first in contested possessions (14.6) and clearances (6.4). Phenomenal player to watch and the complete package in the midfield as he combines evasiveness, strength, hardness, poise and footskills. Myself and 17 coaches are not quite sure how to stop hin.
Steele Sidebottom
Sidebottom has become a very damaging outside midfielder and half-forward for Collingwood this season. He averages a career-high 26.6 disposals per game (+7.0 on 2011) and ranks second at the club for total kicks (15.7 per game). He is a very smart and skillful footballer who makes the opposition pay if he gets into space. His two goals in the 2011 Grand Final sum up how dangerous he can be.
Heath Shaw
One of Geelong's weaknesses this year is not being to stop the opposition running the ball out of the backline and converting that play into a scoring opportunity. The Cats' forward pressure has been limited and once teams are out they are difficult to catch with only very old and very young legs. On the other side of the fence, Heath Shaw loves this rebounding role and is a very smart user of the footy. He is back to his best this year, averaging 16.8 kicks and 5.2 rebounds from 50 per game.
What will happen
There are three ways a team can get its hands on the footy:At the moment, although the Cats are 'losing the contested possession count', I don't think the Cats have done too badly around the stoppages this year and certainly don't think we've lost any matches primarily due to this issue. With a second ruckman in against the one in Jolly, the Cats may (and will need) to lift their intensity against the in-form Collingwood midfield.
- From a stoppage
- From a turnover
- From a kickout
One issue where Geelong has struggle is what they do with the footy once they do get it from a clearance. Plan A (seemingly with no Plan B) seems to be get to half-forward and kick to a massive pack. I cannot remember many kicks to a lead-up player (whether that be a key forward/half-forward/forward pocket/floating midfielder) inside 50 this year. Geelong needs to make its forward line more dynamic and have more options presenting in front of their opponents rather than all leading to the same position. On occasion, of course, Geelong can and should kick long to a contest to try and exploit the deficient Collingwood key defensive unit. However the Cats must ensure there are both crumbers at the bottom of the pack, and that should the Collingwood running defenders of O'Brien, Shaw, Clarke and co. get the ball that they cannot do as they please. Motlop, Stokes, Johnson and Chapman need to be aware here. By making the forward 50 entries less predictable, it should also mean less zoning off by Collingwood defenders into pack contests and a greater chance of a favourable outcome for Geelong.
The other advantage of being more diverse in attacking thrusts, and reducing the Cats' predictability and thus effectiveness of the Magpies' rebounding, is reducing the pain the other way. I would love to have the Champion Data stats database to see how often the Cats are conceding scoring shots from a turnover in the Geelong forwardline. If the fit, young Collingwood half-backs and midfielders are allowed time and space it could be all over.
I expect Geelong's key defenders to match Cloke and Dawes, but it will be the half-forwards and midfielders who could really bob up and hurt Geelong.
Final say
Collingwood by 28 points
