🎯 'Somewhere In The 'MIDDLE'

[targett]

ANZ Premiership
Netball
Total

Tactix v Central

(u108.50) 2.10 tab

(o107.50) 1.90 ts

 

[mozz23]

Dogs +1.5 $2 lads
Cats h2h $1.98 TS

 

[mozz23]

Lions +5.5 $2 lads
Dockers -3.5 $1.91 365

 

[54Dogs]

Good thread, there is some value in middles but like any form of punting not every middle is value.

For example taking 1.90 each side for an AFL middle where you have a 1 point spread is not value and will lose long term. If you had $100 each side you are collecting $190 for you $200 outlay every time unless you hit the exact number, in which case you collect $380. Given the exact points margin is a 60-1 > 80-1 chance each game and can be backed with corps at around 50-1 it's actually not value.

Conversely having the same bet with a 1 point spread on say NBA assists with a far greater margin for success (say 4-1 > 6-1) would be value.

So yes there is value in middles but like anything it's a case by case scenario

 

[targett]

Good thread, there is some value in middles but like any form of punting not every middle is value.

For example taking 1.90 each side for an AFL middle where you have a 1 point spread is not value and will lose long term. If you had $100 each side you are collecting $190 for you $200 outlay every time unless you hit the exact number, in which case you collect $380. Given the exact points margin is a 60-1 > 80-1 chance each game and can be backed with corps at around 50-1 it's actually not value.

Conversely having the same bet with a 1 point spread on say NBA assists with a far greater margin for success (say 4-1 > 6-1) would be value.

So yes there is value in middles but like anything it's a case by case scenario

Have been doing this a long time and have established the profit threshold on middling majority of sports . Thanks anyway

 

[54Dogs]

Have been doing this a long time and have established the profit threshold on middling majority of sports . Thanks anyway

No doubt you have but others have not, I'm sure you wouldn't want them diving into negative value positions. No worries.

 

[targett]

No doubt you have but others have not, I'm sure you wouldn't want them diving into negative value positions. No worries.

Absolutely not …. I encourage any potential middlers to ask as many questions as possible before deciding to participate. As quoted this thread will become private if the numbers make it worth while. Thanks

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Good thread, there is some value in middles but like any form of punting not every middle is value.

For example taking 1.90 each side for an AFL middle where you have a 1 point spread is not value and will lose long term. If you had $100 each side you are collecting $190 for you $200 outlay every time unless you hit the exact number, in which case you collect $380. Given the exact points margin is a 60-1 > 80-1 chance each game and can be backed with corps at around 50-1 it's actually not value.

Conversely having the same bet with a 1 point spread on say NBA assists with a far greater margin for success (say 4-1 > 6-1) would be value.

So yes there is value in middles but like anything it's a case by case scenario

What would the margin for success be for NFL games

 

[54Dogs]

What would the margin for success be for NFL games

NRL is a bit different because the points move in even numbers, so the odds are higher and evens lower. It's harder to get a middle that is value as you need a 2 pt spread or are relying on a field goal. You can see it in the exact points prices. Targett may have established a required NRL +/- value margin, I don' really play middles anymore.

 

[targett]

What would the margin for success be for NFL games

With NFL handicap middles there are key margins like 3,7,6 and 14 which hit more regular than any other number.

As 54 Dogs said it’s a matter determining the true odds of hitting a particular handicap to justify taking a position.

 

[54Dogs]

A solid NRL position is using the TS $2 lines when the margin is 6 vs 6.5 / 5.5 for a 6 pt result and push vs middle win. 6 is very common.

 

[targett]

Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

(-1.50) 2.00 ned

(4.50) 1.92 dab

 

[targett]

Manly Sea Eagles	6.5	$1.28	$200.00	pb
Manly Sea Eagles	5.5	$1.33	$150.00	pb
Manly Sea Eagles	3.5	$1.41	$150.00	pb
New Zealand Warriors	-2.5	$3.60	$58.50	b365
New Zealand Warriors	-4.5	$4.33	$105.20	b365
	3	$213.90
	5	$457.90
	6	$258.40
	other	$3.30
	other	$2.40

 

[54Dogs]

targett how much practice would it take to get to the top of the middling game? Something like the level of JuniorWatch, XBoX or Dan26 for example.

 

[targett]

targett how much practice would it take to get to the top of the middling game? Something like the level of JuniorWatch, XBoX or Dan26 for example.

Hey mate, If your looking to get back in to middling there is good advice about to help.

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

05.06. 16:05	Total
Canberra Raiders vs	o39.5	$1.91	$250.00	b365
Sydney Roosters	o40.5	$2.12	$200.00	b365
	o42.5	$2.50	$269.00	b365
	o44.5	$2.90	$150.00	b365
	u39.5	$2.15	$222	ts
	u40.5	$1.95	$217.5	ts
	u42.5	$1.72	$261.50	ts
	u44	$1.62	$139.00	ts
	u44.5	$1.57	$277	ts
	44	$161.90
	over	$23
	under	$25.3

 

[targett]

05.06. 16:05	H1
Canberra Raiders vs	o18.5	$2.00	$300.00	b365
Sydney Roosters	o20.5	$2.30	$300.00	b365
	u19	$2.06	$194.00	ts
	u20	$1.91	$104.50	ts
	u21.5	$1.79	$385.50	ts
	19	$400.05
	20	$110.55
	21	$696.05
	over	$6.00
	under	$6.05

 

[targett]

Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

(-4.50) 2.00 Ned

(5.50) 2.00 B365

 

[targett]

	H1
Origin	o18	$2.06	$13.00	ts
	o18.5	$2.37	$11.50	b365
	u18.5	$1.87	$28.74	ned
	18	$13.50
	over	$0.80
	under	$0.50