Prediction 1 Round to go, where do we finish end of H&A? Poll included.

[3KZ is Football]

Realistically, I think we finish SECOND, with the possibility of FIRST, depending on how Collingwood’s form stands up.

Here is what I make of our last six games.

Footscray at Gabba
- Lions Win
Footscray appear to be tapering off form wise and we have them covered. Too few trying to do too much. I hope the media keeps glazing them. As a side note, they haven’t played at the Gabba since the finals in 2021 and we still owe them one from that series. I’d love to see us brutalise them.

Gold Coast at People First Stadium
- Lions Win
We play the Suns after they are backing up from an interstate trip. They are a good team, but there are some big holes in their defence, with Uwland looking like a very weak link and Noble’s disposal really poor under pressure. Miller’s absence with a hamstring injury helps us. They are playing on emotion and I expect them to falter in the next six weeks.

Magpies at MCG
- Lions Win
A genuine 50/50, but I think we will approach this game like the Hawthorn and Geelong games and win this one. Fagan loves it when we come into a game as underdogs and so do the players. Collingwood have been great this year, but they are starting to show some ‘wear and tear’. I expect that an enormous amount of thought and planning has gone into this game. This is the Grand Final Preview.

Sydney Swans at the Gabba
- Lions Win
Sydney might be competitive, but they have issues. They were carried by their senior players and just got over St.Kilda last week. Their bottom five or six players are a worry for them. They will have nothing to play for. This could be a big win for us.

Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium
- Lions Win
This one will be a battle of the midfields and we have Fremantle covered in that department. They are a bit like Footscray in that they really need all their stars to fire to do well against quality opposition. People have this as a 50/50 or possible loss, but I think we will beat them soundly. Fremantle are a bit flakey for mine.

Hawthorn at Gabba
- Lions Win
Hawthorn got ahead of themselves this year and I think the Lions players will enjoy letting them know. Hawthorn could be playing for a finals spot at this stage. Lots of pressure on them. We will have a second on the ladder stitched up by this game and may be playing for a top of the table finish. At home, I suggest we win this one by a comfortable margin.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

I agree with your match assessments 3KZ.
But...we have to be playing near our best for each of the next 6 weeks and avoid injuries (and suspension) to key players.
Then yes, of course it is very possible to win them all.

 

[lionraven]

I think if we are genuine contenders to win the flag we should go 6 0 in this final stretch or at least 4 2. If we go 3 3 then wherever we finish in the overall we will be lucky to get past the preliminary final. We need to be good enough to win anywhere and put away contenders at the Gabba.

Last year was a fluke in the sense that GWS game should have stopped us. We probably had less than 5 percent chance to win until the last few minutes of the game.

 

[BangyBangy]

If we improve our Gabba form before finals, top 2 would be ideal.
Gabba Qualy
Gabba Prelim
Off the the G

Given your form in the tipping comp this year & last I'm not going to bother putting up where I think we'll finish, I'll just happily accept your prediction

 

[Dalions]

Given your form in the tipping comp this year & last I'm not going to bother putting up where I think we'll finish, I'll just happily accept your prediction

Speaking of which, I’ve never been able to find out where you sit overall in the comp, I can see what I get each week but not an overall total?
So I have no idea how I am going tbh.
It was a surprise when I won it last year.

 

[twhowler]

I think if we are genuine contenders to win the flag we should go 6 0 in this final stretch or at least 4 2. If we go 3 3 then wherever we finish in the overall we will be lucky to get past the preliminary final. We need to be good enough to win anywhere and put away contenders at the Gabba.

Last year was a fluke in the sense that GWS game should have stopped us. We probably had less than 5 percent chance to win until the last few minutes of the game.

6-0! We'd be hot faves if that happened

Agree that our form needs to be good enough to win away - I think the difference this year is our draw is incredibly hard.

So I could see us playing reasonably well and going 3-3. Dockers, Suns and Collingwood away are all very hard games.

Hawks and Dogs at home are a bit easier, but the dogs will be red hot this week, and the hawks are about to get back Lewis and Day.

Even the Swans get a free hit against the side that thumped them in the granny

Now of course we have plenty to play for as well, but i could imagine a world in which we have solid wins against the Swans, Hawks and Suns, and narrow losses to the Dogs, Dockers and Pies. That could involve some player availability and maybe some bad luck with umpiring. At that point we have gone 3-3, our form is probably good enough, but we are again doing it the hard way.

As you mention the GWS game the planets aligned for us (the giants made some terrible decisions late and missed some easy ones) so doing it that way is hard. And YET the fact we were able to do it, despite losing to the pies and giants in rounds 22 and 23, showed that we were in good enough form DESPITE the close losses.

 

[Whatamark]

Speaking of which, I’ve never been able to find out where you sit overall in the comp, I can see what I get each week but not an overall total?
So I have no idea how I am going tbh.
It was a surprise when I won it last year.

At the beginning of the rounds there is a ladder option. I always check -

 

[Dalions]

At the beginning of the rounds there is a ladder option. I always check -

Ok thanks, it wasn’t easy on my phone but I found it.
It’s pretty tight at the top.

 

[mpal6]

Finals have started 6 rounds early for us. We'll win them all. This is what at least our team was trundling along to get to - business end of the season.

Now that we're here, I expect the players will level up and go bang !

 

[Miluxx]

we played terribly those games and were lucky to walk away with 2 points between them.

adelaide and gws we win 9/10 and are much more punishing losses imo.

We led Melbourne by a bit didn't we. Then just let it slip. So frustrating. Hope we truly have put the jets on to finish the season. If we finish 2nd we definitely deserve it and then look out.

 

[twhowler]

We led Melbourne by a bit didn't we. Then just let it slip. So frustrating. Hope we truly have put the jets on to finish the season. If we finish 2nd we definitely deserve it and then look out.

early on in that melbourne game our ball use was so much better we looked like we would win by 6-8 goals. they were terrible. classic case of us giving an opponent confidence by letting them hang in there (dees, north, essendon, north...)

 

[Miluxx]

early on in that melbourne game our ball use was so much better we looked like we would win by 6-8 goals. they were terrible. classic case of us giving an opponent confidence by letting them hang in there (dees, north, essendon, north...)

I think i remember at one point in the first half thinking wow how good is this. Then half time happened.d

 

[Nunez]

One week at a time. Get it done boys.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Realistically, I think we finish SECOND, with the possibility of FIRST, depending on how Collingwood’s form stands up.

Here is what I make of our last six games.

Footscray at Gabba
- Lions Win
Footscray appear to be tapering off form wise and we have them covered. Too few trying to do too much. I hope the media keeps glazing them. As a side note, they haven’t played at the Gabba since the finals in 2021 and we still owe them one from that series. I’d love to see us brutalise them.

Gold Coast at People First Stadium
- Lions Win
We play the Suns after they are backing up from an interstate trip. They are a good team, but there are some big holes in their defence, with Uwland looking like a very weak link and Noble’s disposal really poor under pressure. Miller’s absence with a hamstring injury helps us. They are playing on emotion and I expect them to falter in the next six weeks.

Magpies at MCG
- Lions Win
A genuine 50/50, but I think we will approach this game like the Hawthorn and Geelong games and win this one. Fagan loves it when we come into a game as underdogs and so do the players. Collingwood have been great this year, but they are starting to show some ‘wear and tear’. I expect that an enormous amount of thought and planning has gone into this game. This is the Grand Final Preview.

Sydney Swans at the Gabba
- Lions Win
Sydney might be competitive, but they have issues. They were carried by their senior players and just got over St.Kilda last week. Their bottom five or six players are a worry for them. They will have nothing to play for. This could be a big win for us.

Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium
- Lions Win
This one will be a battle of the midfields and we have Fremantle covered in that department. They are a bit like Footscray in that they really need all their stars to fire to do well against quality opposition. People have this as a 50/50 or possible loss, but I think we will beat them soundly. Fremantle are a bit flakey for mine.

Hawthorn at Gabba
- Lions Win
Hawthorn got ahead of themselves this year and I think the Lions players will enjoy letting them know. Hawthorn could be playing for a finals spot at this stage. Lots of pressure on them. We will have a second on the ladder stitched up by this game and may be playing for a top of the table finish. At home, I suggest we win this one by a comfortable margin.

Footscray taken care of

 

[M Malice]

Did the ladder predictor again from a pessimistic standpoint, had us losing to Pies and Dockers and winning v Swans and Hawks.

We finish 7th and travel to Perth for an away Elimination Final against the Dockers.

If I tick of all 4 as wins it would have us finishing 2nd and hosting the Pies in a home Qualifying Final.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Here's my take on the ladder predictor.

No wins from the last 4 games makes us 8th.

1 win: vs Hawthorn makes us 7th, anyone else is 8th

2 wins: 7th.

3 wins: If the one loss is v Freo we're 6th, otherwise 5th.

4 wins: 2nd.

Usual caveats about there being a lot of games to play and I'm not in infallible tipper

 

[M Malice]

We are going to end this round in 3rd spot with 4 teams half a game behind us, effectively 5 teams with Suns having a game in hand.

3 big games next round with position in the 8 ramifications -

Lions v Magpies
Bulldogs v Giants
Crows v Hawks

 

[Nunez]

We'll bounce back if we're good enough. Bring on the Pies baby!

 

[Lions2Good]

Sadly my 6-7 mark is looking more predictable, especially if we lose against the pies.

 

[CarterS]

Round 23, if GWS can beat Gold Coast or Sydney can beat Geelong, thats what Lions need to happen, according to my ladder predictor, thats with us winning 3 of the last 4, so we have to either beat Collingwood or Freo away.

 

[MSB ROYS]

I think my "not losing a game for the rest of the season" was a tad optimistic! Hopefully we see the good Lions next week.

 

[Squizz89]

No idea where we’ll end up, but I think making it to week 2 in the finals would be a good effort.

I think this year is a stronger year in terms of the teams at the top and who we’d have to play in finals. I think we’d have to be a stronger team than last year to make it to the GF again, which I don’t believe we are.

From our point of view, comparing this team to last years, off the top of my head you could probably only list McCluggage, Fletcher and maybe Morris (although he has been quieter lately) as showing stronger form than they had last year. A few maybe have maintained their level whilst quite a few have dropped considerably.

Coupled with the huge loss of Joe, as well now as the other bookend down the other end, and the current ruck situation, there would have to be a huge uptick in form from the rest of the list in the next month to cause to much damage in September.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Win all 4, finish 1st to 3rd
win 2-3, finish 5th
Win 0-1, finish 8th

So I think we'll finish 5th unless we get some favourable results

When was the last time we finished 5th.....

 

[Paul Mac]

No idea where we’ll end up, but I think making it to week 2 in the finals would be a good effort.

I think this year is a stronger year in terms of the teams at the top and who we’d have to play in finals. I think we’d have to be a stronger team than last year to make it to the GF again, which I don’t believe we are.

From our point of view, comparing this team to last years, off the top of my head you could probably only list McCluggage, Fletcher and maybe Morris (although he has been quieter lately) as showing stronger form than they had last year. A few maybe have maintained their level whilst quite a few have dropped considerably.

Coupled with the huge loss of Joe, as well now as the other bookend down the other end, and the current ruck situation, there would have to be a huge uptick in form from the rest of the list in the next month to cause to much damage in September.

No idea as well. Collingwood is the game to see where we are really at i suppose. Only my opinion but Zac Bailey seems to be more consistent this year with the amount of disposals he is getting. Goal kicking maybe still inconsistent but it just feels to me he has had a better season than last.
Do agree that the competition does seem more stronger than last year though.

 

[Paul Mac]

Win all 4, finish 1st to 3rd
win 2-3, finish 5th
Win 0-1, finish 8th

So I think we'll finish 5th unless we get some favourable results

When was the last time we finished 5th.....

Last year but only my opinion but i feel the competition is alot stiffer than last year. As we know on Grand Final day if you can somehow bring your A game then who knows what can happen but FEELS harder this year than last year.
Will these other teams cope with the pressure during finals....................who knows.