Prediction 1 Round to go, where do we finish end of H&A? Poll included.

[M Malice]

Possible, sure. Realistic? It would be a big turnaround in form

Agree, IMO we should win our 2 remaining home games which would leave us between 4th and 6th.

No matter what happens the rest of this season I wont be too downcast about it even if we go straight out in an Elimination Final.

I'm very content with last years flag and experiencing the whole finals series in person, will never beat that series of 4 games for sheer footy elation. No footy fan can expect to win flags every season or even every 2nd/3rd/4th etc season, we have had a fantastic ride since Fagan and co came on board, I bask in the overall journey and with an ounce of luck it will continue for at least a few more years. This is a bloody tight, hard, taxing competition at the top end of the ladder when contending for flags and always will be.

If we happen to win another flag or 2 over the next few years fantastic, if we don't the journey goes on.

 

[martinson]

Agree, IMO we should win our 2 remaining home games which would leave us between 4th and 6th.

No matter what happens the rest of this season I wont be too downcast about it even if we go straight out in an Elimination Final.

I'm very content with last years flag and experiencing the whole finals series in person, will never beat that series of 4 games for sheer footy elation. No footy fan can expect to win flags every season or even every 2nd/3rd/4th etc season, we have had a fantastic ride since Fagan and co came on board, I bask in the overall journey and with an ounce of luck it will continue for at least a few more years. This is a bloody tight, hard, taxing competition at the top end of the ladder when contending for flags and always will be.

If we happen to win another flag or 2 over the next few years fantastic, if we don't the journey goes on.

It's all about having availability to our full list , not having any glaring holes coming into finals , and our older contingent like Neale , Cameron ,Zorko etc not going downhill too quickly. This year we're looking a bit banged up to me with too many gaps to flll in the team due to inavailability of Daniher, Answerth ,Payne ,Coleman , Lohman , McCarthy and others. And some of those out there just not in great form such as Andrews , McInerny, Starcevich ,Hipwood etc.

I'm not into thinking this is going to last a few more years . A lot needs to go right and other teams can overtake you fairly quickly if you stop improving.

Obviously I hope you're right but if not we'll always have 2024. Fwiiw I'm not worried about Collingwood at all and think we have some hope of rolling them this week but there are other teams who could be real threats over the next few years.

 

[Section 5]

Agree, IMO we should win our 2 remaining home games which would leave us between 4th and 6th.

No matter what happens the rest of this season I wont be too downcast about it even if we go straight out in an Elimination Final.

I'm very content with last years flag and experiencing the whole finals series in person, will never beat that series of 4 games for sheer footy elation. No footy fan can expect to win flags every season or even every 2nd/3rd/4th etc season, we have had a fantastic ride since Fagan and co came on board, I bask in the overall journey and with an ounce of luck it will continue for at least a few more years. This is a bloody tight, hard, taxing competition at the top end of the ladder when contending for flags and always will be.

If we happen to win another flag or 2 over the next few years fantastic, if we don't the journey goes on.

Yes, it has been a good ride since 2019 to hopefully a few finals games this year.

We have a squad that could hang around the 8 for say 2026, 27 then possibly 28.
If we are going to have a few years outside the 8 make them possibly 2028. 29, 30.
Then a return to the 8 in 2031, 32 in time for the new stadium

It would take a hell of a lot of good fortune to stay relevant all the way to 2032/3

 

[Paul Mac]

Ladder >

Magpies 60 - Lions, Hawks, Crows, Demons.
Crows 56 - Hawks, Eagles, Magpies, Kangaroos.
Lions 54 - Magpies, Swans, Dockers, Hawks.
Cats 52 - Port, Bombers, Swans, Tigers.
Hawks 52 - Crows, Magpies, Demons, Lions.
Giants 52 - Bulldogs, Kangaroos, Suns, Saints.
Dockers 52 - Blues, Port, Lions, Bulldogs.
Suns 48 - Tigers, Blues, Giants, Port, Bombers.
_____
Bulldogs 44 - Giants, Demons, Eagles, Dockers.

Lions, Magpies, Hawks, have 3 games left against teams in the top 9.
Crows, Giants, Dockers, Bulldogs have 2 games left against teams in the top 9.
Suns have 1 game left against a team in the top 9.
Cats have zero games left against teams in the top 9.

With the Suns having a game in hand the Bulldogs are almost gone IMO, plenty of room left for manoeuvring within the top 8 though.

We can still realistically finish anywhere from 1st to 8th, Magpies no certainty to even finish top 4 with their hard next 3 weeks.

IF bulldogs can win 3 out of 4, the hawks are a chance of dropping 3 out of there 4 games with bulldogs far superior percentage.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Did you forget Collingwoods last 2 weeks before today……….pathetic effort, terrible result. Everything to play for and didnt turn up twice…..WTF!!!

You are right. Could you do us a favour and go and post this on the Collingwood board.

 

[twhowler]

i went for 6th in the poll when it came out. don't know if i am a shit supporter, realist, or both? haha

i think calling our flag is a fluke is crazy. some elements of luck. but getting to the pointy end 6 years in a row will do that.

we have lost some key personnel. and have definitely lost some drive

if we can manage to get to 5th or 6th and relatively healthy we would do some damage. the downside to reigning prems is lack of hunger, but the upside is a calmness about the finals and less fear of failure. still can't see us running the table again but if we can avoid gws and adelaide until the gf then maybe. adelaide at AO with their key forwards no thanks.

if we get to top four we will have had a very good final month. i just can't see it given the pies are getting soldiers back and need to win for top 2, dockers oozing confidence and need to win for top 4.

 

[Nathan Barley]

You do realise that a “fluke” simply means a stroke of good luck or a chance occurrence, right?

This idea that calling our flag a fluke is somehow an insult is absurd. Take the Giants game: we were 44 points down with eight minutes left in the third quarter away from home and we won. If that’s not a fluke in the purest, most incredible sense of the word, I don’t know what is. Then we beat Geelong away in a game where we looked out of it more than once. Again, an extraordinary result that defied the odds.

Calling those wins a “fluke” isn’t a knock, quite the opposite. It highlights just how miraculous and memorable those performances were. There’s nothing wrong with pulling off a fluke when it leads to one of the most iconic premiership runs in modern footy which the Lions did. That’s the beauty of what we achieved, it was unpredictable, dramatic, and sometimes, yes, flukey. Was the Saints win over Melbourne not flukey?

Rather than get defensive, we should celebrate it. That kind of run is unlikely to be repeated and that’s exactly why it’ll go down in folklore.

Would you call it a fluke to Fagans face?

 

[Nathan Barley]

Yes, because I am sure Chris would know what the word "fluke" means, unlike the majority here.

You do reason certain words have connotations and when said out of context can make it seem like you’re focussing on the wrong thing?

 

[HereIGoAgain]

One can be anal-retentive about the dictionary definition of fluke but in common parlance and in the context of last years premiership fluke is an insult to that achievement. IMHO.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Here are some other definitions of the word fluke:

-To achieve something by luck rather than skill (Oxford)

-Something that happens, usually something good, that is the result of chance instead of skill or planning (Cambridge)

-Something that happens because of luck : an unexpected or unusual thing that happens by accident (Britannica)

The word is inherently patronising, and if any one of us had our greatest achievement in life referred to as a 'fluke', we would absolutely take that as something of an insult.

You could describe last year's grand final as extraordinary (very unusual or remarkable) or unique (one of its kind) to get across the point, but the word 'fluke' inherently implies a sense that it was somewhat unearned or undeserved.

This is not a matter of perspective. There is literally no other way that word is used in common speech.

 

[M Malice]

Here are some other definitions of the word fluke:

-To achieve something by luck rather than skill (Oxford)

-Something that happens, usually something good, that is the result of chance instead of skill or planning (Cambridge)

-Something that happens because of luck : an unexpected or unusual thing that happens by accident (Britannica)

The word is inherently patronising, and if any one of us had our greatest achievement in life referred to as a 'fluke', we would absolutely take that as something of an insult.

You could describe last year's grand final as extraordinary (very unusual or remarkable) or unique (one of its kind) to get across the point, but the word 'fluke' inherently implies a sense that it was somewhat unearned or undeserved.

This is not a matter of perspective. There is literally no other way that word is used in common speech.

Yep, I would prefer the words hard work, persistence, perseverance, determination, skill, belief, mateship, loyalty come to front of mind when reflecting on our extraordinary finals run in 2024.

Every single team that has won a Premiership has had at least an ounce of luck to achieve that ultimate goal eg. good injury run, bounce of the ball at a vital time.

 

[GenericUsername202]

The simple fact is that percentage tells you where you are at. We're at 110% which is an incredibly poor percentage for a top 4 team, and its our worst percentage since 2018. History tells you that teams with this percentage doesn't win flags. The last team to win it with a poor percentage was the bulldogs in 2016, but even their percentage was still 5% above ours. You know the biggest problem with our season? We haven't had a statement game where we smashed a team by 100+. Or even nearly that. We used to do that once or twice a season, and this hasn't happened at all. I won't comment on last years GF, but i hope that most people in here are aware of the reality that we're not the best team in the comp. The best team in the comp can have a bad day, but they don't lose like we did on the weekend and they won't allow themselves to have a percentage as poor as ours.

 

[Nathan Barley]

The simple fact is that percentage tells you where you are at. We're at 110% which is an incredibly poor percentage for a top 4 team, and its our worst percentage since 2018. History tells you that teams with this percentage doesn't win flags. The last team to win it with a poor percentage was the bulldogs in 2016, but even their percentage was still 5% above ours. You know the biggest problem with our season? We haven't had a statement game where we smashed a team by 100+. Or even nearly that. We used to do that once or twice a season, and this hasn't happened at all. I won't comment on last years GF, but i hope that most people in here are aware of the reality that we're not the best team in the comp. The best team in the comp can have a bad day, but they don't lose like we did on the weekend and they won't allow themselves to have a percentage as poor as ours.

Does the percentage maybe indicate the difficulty of your draw? Or having a late start to preseason and needing to build conditioning up through the season? Or an unusually high amount of wet weather games?

We weren't close to the best team in the comp in the home and away season last year either

 

[Big Sauce 21]

The Freo game is everything. Might determine 4th or as low as 7th

 

[Ceebee]

Here are some other definitions of the word fluke:

-To achieve something by luck rather than skill (Oxford)

-Something that happens, usually something good, that is the result of chance instead of skill or planning (Cambridge)

-Something that happens because of luck : an unexpected or unusual thing that happens by accident (Britannica)

The word is inherently patronising, and if any one of us had our greatest achievement in life referred to as a 'fluke', we would absolutely take that as something of an insult.

You could describe last year's grand final as extraordinary (very unusual or remarkable) or unique (one of its kind) to get across the point, but the word 'fluke' inherently implies a sense that it was somewhat unearned or undeserved.

This is not a matter of perspective. There is literally no other way that word is used in common speech.

Last years final series was the best ever .
The guts and endurance and being able to get through every hurdle that was thrown at them , was awe inspiring .

It was absolutely no fluke, but I still wonder how on earth they managed to do what they did , under so much adversity .

Will always be so very proud of that team ,and the fact that in 22 years I have been lucky enough to see the Brisbane Lions win 4 Premierships , all of them very special .

 

[martinson]

You couldn't be more wrong, but carry on

If it's of any comfort to you McIvor I too at one time called 2024 'a bit of a fluke ' in the context that if you threw up the same set of circumstances as many times as you liked again it's unlikely we would've gotten to the GF. Once there and playing the Swans it was a slam dunk and we delivered on the day. I doubt that we'll ever see a performance like that again from this or any other team . Unbelievable really .

To me the GF was somewhat of an anti climax after what had preceded it. But a whole lot less stressful.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

The only "fluke" in the finals was Daniher kicking it from the crowd against GWS. But then again... it was Joe

 

[GenericUsername202]

Does the percentage maybe indicate the difficulty of your draw? Or having a late start to preseason and needing to build conditioning up through the season? Or an unusually high amount of wet weather games?

We weren't close to the best team in the comp in the home and away season last year either

Of course you should factor in the draw, but we also played West Coast this year, and north. Geelong smashed north by 100+ and we couldn't even beat them. We also had to overcome west coast as well. While our draw is significantly more difficult than the others, what separates us from the other teams is that we were scraping wins against the poorer sides, while the teams around us were smashing them. To be honest, even if we don't win the flag this season, it's not a big deal as we won it last year, but it's really hard to believe that we can win a flag this season when they're so many things that point against us being good enough to win it.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Of course you should factor in the draw, but we also played West Coast this year, and north. Geelong smashed north by 100+ and we couldn't even beat them. We also had to overcome west coast as well. While our draw is significantly more difficult than the others, what separates us from the other teams is that we were scraping wins against the poorer sides, while the teams around us were smashing them

We're we doing everything better than the top teams last year?

 

[GenericUsername202]

We're we doing everything better than the top teams last year?

That's the thing. We will probably end up with more wins this season than last season, and if you look at last seasons ladder, Geelong, GWS and Port all had poor percentages as well. Unfortunately, none of them made the GF which supports the theory that having a poor percentage means you're not good enough to win it. I'm not ruling us out, but I do think we need a statement win to change this perception. The club needs to go out and smash one of the best teams in the comp and given our draw, we will have a lot of chances of doing that. It's the only way to fix the damage of the gold coast game, because that game did a lot of damage to our reputation and to our finals chances.

 

[Nathan Barley]

That's the thing. We will probably end up with more wins this season than last season, and if you look at last seasons ladder, Geelong, GWS and Port all had poor percentages as well. Unfortunately, none of them made the GF which supports the theory that having a poor percentage means you're not good enough to win it. I'm not ruling us out, but I do think we need a statement win to change this perception. The club needs to go out and smash one of the best teams in the comp and given our draw, we will have a lot of chances of doing that. It's the only way to fix the damage of the gold coast game, because that game did a lot of damage to our reputation and to our finals chances.

Why the **** does reputation matter?

So we win all 4 by a point but we're in a worse position because we haven't had a 'statement win' to boost our reputation?

 

[LongLion]

One can be anal-retentive about the dictionary definition of fluke but in common parlance and in the context of last years premiership fluke is an insult to that achievement. IMHO.

can someone put up a poll on who agrees or not with last year's flag being flukey? I'm a NO not flukey just bloody good for all the reasons already stated.

 

[M Malice]

I'm on board with what martinson has been saying ie. we looked a bit banged up. We look like we need another bye and we only just had one a month ago, thank heavens for the pre finals bye again this year.

It has been a very strange season, some weeks we looked terribly "banged up" and others we look like our best football is nigh on unbeatable, and not only over the whole season, the same up and down form is apparent during games and with some individual players.

No doubt if we take care of Collingwood on Saturday night the narrative will change again.

 

[Dom PC]

Not going to lie - I've got a sinking feeling about these last four games. I think we'll lose against the Pies and Freo and are only 50/50's against the swans and Hawks.

There is a real chance we go 0-4 here... not really sure why I'm so pessimistic. I think it's because we've just not had any truly dominant all round games (where we dominate on the field and the scoreboard). So it just feels like each game has been a huge hurdle for the team, and i wonder if it's going to catch up to the team. I.e. we just haven't really had any easy wins this year...

 

[M Malice]

Out of curiosity Jason, what do you think the narrative will be about the Lions if we lose to the Pies, irrespective of the margin? Do you also think the narrative will be much different if we lose by under 4 goals or if we are given another hiding like we copped from them earlier in the year or the Suns last week?

I have found it amusing that some have mentioned that not getting that bye earlier in the season has been detrimental particularly when three quarters of the competition also didn't get the early season bye so we've been at no disadvantage.

If we are given a hiding like v the Suns last week or by the Pies earlier in the season I think the narrative will be that our odds of going back2back are long and with some justification, there will definitely be a pile on from the Victorian centric footy media.

If we lose a close one the pile on wont be as extreme but will be there.

If we win the narrative will be the Lions are back, their best footy is bloody good and back2back is a good chance.

If I am looking for some sensible non sensationalistic take on footy my go to would be either Nathan Buckley or Josh Jenkins, both don't go in for clickbait.

I also like Lethal's pragmatic outlook - Things are never as good or bad as they seem.