Prediction 1 Round to go, where do we finish end of H&A? Poll included.

[Grasshopper17]

Apparently in the AFLs wisdom when it was thought it would be the Friday night game but Lions v Hawks at the Gabba is likely to be on Sunday night.

Typical AFL BS all because they want the suspense of the final game (ignoring the Suns v Bombers game) deciding if Hawks will make the 8 or not.

Literally will not be coming down if it’s on thw Sunday night.

Sunday night would certainly be a better outcome for us given in mind our trip to Perth the week prior. Plus we would also know exactly what is at stake instead of being a bit up in the air on Friday night.

I'd expect however they will have the Bulldogs v Freo game on the Sunday night tho, which is a pity.

 

[mpal6]

Everyone in finals contention will be asking for that last slot to know all permutations upfront. I too feel Freo vs Dogs would be more likely there than us.

Based on how the fixture was setup, I made up my mind that AFL is keen on knocking us down a few pegs. But with Swan onboard now, we may get some relief hopefully.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Even though Sunday night is barely a thing, it is still a huge primetime slot. And it's probably AFL's next frontier after getting thursday night games locked in. I'm not mad about it, and from a crowd perspective, it's a lot easier to make sunday night games than it is to make thursday night games.

 

[Section 5]

Keep winning and the only way we can miss top 2 is if Adelaide & Collingwood draw.

True but i am thinking along the lines of 2 wins from three
Then somehow scraping into top 2 but at least hoping to make top 4
To many variables to look at with three game to go so i didn't bother using the ladder predictor.

In my mind the 2 wins being.
Best: Dockers, Hawks.
Next: Swans, Dockers
Last: Swans, Hawks

Would be very happy to win all three but a few hard games to come.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

I updated my ladder predictor and tried the first couple of weeks of the finals. It did not take much effort to come up with this as a potential pair of preliminary final matchups:

 

[Kabanna]

Top four still realistic. If we win enough games maybe top two.

Where we finish is in our hands as we play Dockers and Hawks both true 8-point games.

I am hoping Melbourne play some part in the final makeup of the 8.
They play Dogs, Hawks then Pies.

Their season is full of ups and downs so maybe they have one upset left over the remaining 3 games.
They had wins over: Lions, Dockers & Swans
Losses: Pies by 1, Giants by 3 and Crows at AO by 13

IF we win all our remaining H&A games, we should finish in the top 2. Adelaide and Collingwood play each other in round 23, I doubt there’ll be a draw there.

 

[Grasshopper17]

True but i am thinking along the lines of 2 wins from three
Then somehow scraping into top 2 but at least hoping to make top 4
To many variables to look at with three game to go so i didn't bother using the ladder predictor.

In my mind the 2 wins being.
Best: Dockers, Hawks.
Next: Swans, Dockers
Last: Swans, Hawks

Would be very happy to win all three but a few hard games to come.

Usually I only do ladder predictors for the amusement of seeing what is still "mathematically possible". Like Collingwood missing the finals (it can still happen!)

But I just did a somewhat realistic one, where we win both our home games and lose to Freo. In that scenario what would we need to make the top 4?

My analysis indicates we will need 3 of these 4 results to happen:

1. Hawthorn beats Collingwood tomorrow night
2. Adelaide beats Collingwood (in Adelaide next Saturday night)
3. The Bulldogs beat Freo (in Melbourne on the last Sunday)
4. GWS beat Gold Coast (at Carrara next Saturday)

Even getting 3 of those 4, it's a high wire ask. I'm ignoring the possibility any of the bottom 9 teams doing us any favours because less face it, unless they've been playing us, they've all been absolute

 

[Kabanna]

Usually I only do ladder predictors for the amusement of seeing what is still "mathematically possible". Like Collingwood missing the finals (it can still happen!)

But I just did a somewhat realistic one, where we win both our home games and lose to Freo. In that scenario what would we need to make the top 4?

My analysis indicates we will need 3 of these 4 results to happen:

1. Hawthorn beats Collingwood tomorrow night
2. Adelaide beats Collingwood (in Adelaide next Saturday night)
3. The Bulldogs beat Freo (in Melbourne on the last Sunday)
4. GWS beat Gold Coast (at Carrara next Saturday)

Even getting 3 of those 4, it's a high wire ask. I'm ignoring the possibility any of the bottom 9 teams doing us any favours because less face it, unless they've been playing us, they've all been absolute

Either way.. we need to win regardless of other results.. I think Freo in Perth will be the hardest out of our remaining games, but I have belief we can do it!

 

[twhowler]

Usually I only do ladder predictors for the amusement of seeing what is still "mathematically possible". Like Collingwood missing the finals (it can still happen!)

But I just did a somewhat realistic one, where we win both our home games and lose to Freo. In that scenario what would we need to make the top 4?

My analysis indicates we will need 3 of these 4 results to happen:

1. Hawthorn beats Collingwood tomorrow night
2. Adelaide beats Collingwood (in Adelaide next Saturday night)
3. The Bulldogs beat Freo (in Melbourne on the last Sunday)
4. GWS beat Gold Coast (at Carrara next Saturday)

Even getting 3 of those 4, it's a high wire ask. I'm ignoring the possibility any of the bottom 9 teams doing us any favours because less face it, unless they've been playing us, they've all been absolute

Hmm but if scenario 3 and 4 happen we would be top 4.

i think it's more that we would need 2/3 of

1. pies to lose to hawks and crows
2. bulldogs to beat freo
3. gws to beat gold coast

For each one of those, if we have won our home games, they finish below us.

Therefore we would finish below Adelaide, Geelong and whichever side did NOT do that scenario.

 

[Section 5]

Usually I only do ladder predictors for the amusement of seeing what is still "mathematically possible". Like Collingwood missing the finals (it can still happen!)

But I just did a somewhat realistic one, where we win both our home games and lose to Freo. In that scenario what would we need to make the top 4?

My analysis indicates we will need 3 of these 4 results to happen:

1. Hawthorn beats Collingwood tomorrow night
2. Adelaide beats Collingwood (in Adelaide next Saturday night)
3. The Bulldogs beat Freo (in Melbourne on the last Sunday)
4. GWS beat Gold Coast (at Carrara next Saturday)

Even getting 3 of those 4, it's a high wire ask. I'm ignoring the possibility any of the bottom 9 teams doing us any favours because less face it, unless they've been playing us, they've all been absolute

I joined the predictor train, even though there are too many variables 3 weeks out.
The only game that most would pick differently was i had Hawks beating Pies
Same as you i did not have what could be classed as a big upset. However, i still believe the Demons may win one

I had us beating Dockers and Hawks and losing to Swans
That put us 4th on 66 points behind equal leaders listed by %. 1 Crows, 2 Cats, & 3 Pies all on 68 points.

 

[Nunez]

One week at a time baby

 

[M Malice]

IMO of the teams in the bottom 9 the 2 that could be capable of upsetting the top 9 over the concluding 3 rounds are the Demons and Swans.

Demons play - Bulldogs, Hawks, Magpies.
Swans play - Lions, Cats.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I joined the predictor train, even though there are too many variables 3 weeks out.
The only game that most would pick differently was i had Hawks beating Pies
Same as you i did not have what could be classed as a big upset. However, i still believe the Demons may win one

I had us beating Dockers and Hawks and losing to Swans
That put us 4th on 66 points behind equal leaders listed by %. 1 Crows, 2 Cats, & 3 Pies all on 68 points.


View attachment 2387736

Yes if we were to only win 2 of our 3, having the 2 be Freo and Hawthorn would be the most preferable option.

That means we would only need Collingwood to lose to Adelaide and Hawthorn to still make the top 4.

 

[lionshine]

Having lost today there is a chance we could miss finals altogether although unlikely. Dogs drop one and we are in.

I do think our best structural option up forward is Day. We have trialled Gallop, Smith and the O/Fort combo but Day whilst no world beater at this stage of his career at least neutralises contests and can play the system. Would the below team be our best team of available players come finals?

B Starcevich Andrews Gardiner
HB Wilmot Lester Zorko
C Fletcher McCluggage Berry
HF Bailey Hipwood Rayner
F Morris Day Cameron
R Fort Dunkley Neale
I LAshcroft Lohmann WAshcroft Ah Chee
S McKenna

I still think this side could make the grand final. Issue is we will need to win at least 1 of our final two matches against red hot contenders Freo & Hawthorn to unlock the above side for finals footy with no Neale, McKenna and potentially Lohmann before getting there.

 

[RU_]

Having lost today there is a chance we could miss finals altogether although unlikely. Dogs drop one and we are in.

I do think our best structural option up forward is Day. We have trialled Gallop, Smith and the O/Fort combo but Day whilst no world beater at this stage of his career at least neutralises contests and can play the system. Would the below team be our best team of available players come finals?

B Starcevich Andrews Gardiner
HB Wilmot Lester Zorko
C Fletcher McCluggage Berry
HF Bailey Hipwood Rayner
F Morris Day Cameron
R Fort Dunkley Neale
I LAshcroft Lohmann WAshcroft Ah Chee
S McKenna

I still think this side could make the grand final. Issue is we will need to win at least 1 of our final two matches against red hot contenders Freo & Hawthorn to unlock the above side for finals footy with no Neale, McKenna and potentially Lohmann before getting there.

Yeah agree, we need to win one of the next two.

I think the Dogs will win out for their remaining 3. Dees, Eagles and Freo at Marvel.

 

[M Malice]

Having lost today there is a chance we could miss finals altogether although unlikely. Dogs drop one and we are in.

I do think our best structural option up forward is Day. We have trialled Gallop, Smith and the O/Fort combo but Day whilst no world beater at this stage of his career at least neutralises contests and can play the system. Would the below team be our best team of available players come finals?

B Starcevich Andrews Gardiner
HB Wilmot Lester Zorko
C Fletcher McCluggage Berry
HF Bailey Hipwood Rayner
F Morris Day Cameron
R Fort Dunkley Neale
I LAshcroft Lohmann WAshcroft Ah Chee
S McKenna

I still think this side could make the grand final. Issue is we will need to win at least 1 of our final two matches against red hot contenders Freo & Hawthorn to unlock the above side for finals footy with no Neale, McKenna and potentially Lohmann before getting there.

Like that side, Henry Smith definitely not ready yet.

 

[M Malice]

Did the predictor again, if we win both we likely snag 4th IMO, win 1 we finish 5th or 6th, win zero we finish 9th unless the Dockers beat the Dogs in the final round, in which case we finish 8th.

 

[cotter101]

5th now.. with a real possibility of finishing 9th..

Bad time of the year for injuries.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Unless there are surprise results, it's likely we finish 9th if we lose our last two games.

Win our last 2 games and even if the others win out, it's still 4th.

If one was to find positives, finishing 9th should net us an easier draw next year. Allen + Draper and the return of injured players would prime us for another tilt very quickly next year.

Tonight sucked, a few results this year have sucked and the injuries have as well but we won a flag last year, 2 GF's in a row and we've been incredibly successful. Only 3 clubs have gone B2B in the last 25 years (Lions & Hawks 3 in a row + Richmond). It's not easy but I'd be just as content with 24 + 26 in the history books!

 

[Sproj]

Well the pressure is on now isn’t it. That said, we tend to play our best when that’s the case. We clearly are still very good but our problem is that we have injuries at the wrong time of year. Hopefully we get one or two back next week, particularly Starc and Lohmann. I like that Fages called out Charlie, McLachlan, Rayner, Bailey and Ah Chee basically.

Our small forwards sucked yesterday. In Cal and Charlie’s case, they have basically all year. They need to up their game. We shouldn’t be losing with the entries we are getting and yet probably 4 games this year we’ve dropped because of inaccuracy and laziness on the above’s behalf.

Next week is basically make or break.

 

[CarterS]

Funny how we all thought we'd be playing Hawks R24 with them needing to win to make the finals but it's likely going to be us in that position.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Dare I say it but this team might need the longer pre-season.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Funny how we all thought we'd be playing Hawks R24 with them needing to win to make the finals but it's likely going to be us in that position.

I think both of us will need to win to make the finals. It'll be a hot game

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Having lost today there is a chance we could miss finals altogether although unlikely. Dogs drop one and we are in.

It's not that unlikely. Dogs have West Coast and Dockers, both at home. They'll beat the Eagles obviously, and you'd think would be warm favourites for the other game.

It's starting to look likely that if we play finals, none of them will be at home. Perhaps that's for the best given we struggle here so much at the moment.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Not worried if we miss finals because if we don’t win either of the next 2 then it’s pretty unlikely we would’ve won the premiership anyway.

Winning the next 2 will set us up well though