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1000 Guineas

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sethlad

sethlad

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Looks a raffle on paper.....not sure which form reference to look at?
Such a bunched finish in the Manifold,many horses unlucky.

Aracadia & Zarita come through the Sandown meeting...good enough for WH in the Guineas.

Early money is all for A Glam,$6 to $4.8 @IAS.
Thoughts?

seth
 
It was ok last time,loomed up & just battled like a lot of them.
Maybe we're overlooking the obvious & El Daana would have won anyway?

seth
 

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I have Jestatune, Absolut Glam and Riva San going in the Guineas double for decent results and normally would have a couple a hedge bets but no idea at all who to save on here.

I backed Absolut Glam last time and was a tragedy beaten in the Manifold but they all looked like a bunch of average horses plugging away over the last 200 and finished in a pack which is never a good form reference.

Outside of Absolut Glam I thought the best run was clearly from Serious Speed who came from last and circled the entire field and looked the winner at the 100 before dying on her run for 2nd. If she can get a softer run here will definitely be in the finish. Think El Daana got her birthday present the other day so don't like her at all.

Obviously I want one of the 3 going in my doubles to win but will definitely be having something on Serious Speed.
 
Im live in the double with El Daana,Arcadia & Riva San.
I took 8 on the day WH won the 1st time at Sandown & the other 5 have all dropped off....S Chassis,C Rose etc.
Happy enough as the 3 left were fairly speculative & big odds.

A Glam wasnt an option as it wasnt even nomd for the race.
Will be saving big time on it & Jestatune...possibly a couple more?

seth
 
I took 5 horses originally for the 1000 Guineas and only 2 got through. After watching 4 of them run woefully in the Manifold I took another with Ab Glam on Saturday. Wasn't overly impressed with the $18 quote at the time but it doesn't look too bad now looking at the odds.

Reckon you might be in the same boat as me Seth and be cheering Riva San home big time - result would be huge. Hope they are a bit more aggressive on her this time, don't think she is a back of the field horse.
 
Filtered >= 01/04/07 - Ranked top to bottom (ranking based on other horses in result race)

Code: 
Hrse Name*****Hrse Nbr***Hrse Wght***Jcky Wght**Barr Pos***NS01**Rslt Date****Rslt Trck****Rslt Cnd***Rslt Dist***NS02*****Rslt Mgn*****Rslt Wght****Rslt Barr*****NS03***Rslt Off*****Rslt Prize Money***Rslt Description                                                   
**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************       
ANTARCTIC MISS(NZ)**7********55.5*********0********9********1.12****15/09/07******M.V.*********g*********1200******71.05*******0**********55.5**********8*********-1.88***-0.76************120000*********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.       
RIVA SAN************6********55.5*********0********5********1.09*****9/06/07******M.V.*********d*********1500******89.75*******0**********54.5**********13********-1.66***-0.57************75000**********Open for 2yo. Handicap Conditions.                                 
JESTATUNE***********1********55.5*********0********7********1.1*****22/09/07******CAULF.*******g*********1400******83.9********1.8********56.5**********9*********-1.66***-0.56************125000*********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim.                    
RIVA SAN************6********55.5*********0********5********1.09****22/09/07******MPHVL********g*********1600******97.7********0**********56************9*********-1.53***-0.44************50000**********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.       
JESTATUNE***********1********55.5*********0********7********1.1***** 5/09/07******BEL.PK*******g*********1000******58.23*******0**********55.5**********7*********-1.26***-0.16************20000**********RST79 for 3yo+. Handicap Conditions.                               
TRULY BEAUTIFUL*****2********55.5*********0********8********1.11****22/09/07******MPHVL********g*********1600******97.7********0.5********56************7*********-1.26***-0.15************50000**********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.       
BONDED*************11********55.5*********0********15*******1.17****12/09/07******W'BEE********d*********1425******85.72*******0**********57.5**********3*********-1.27***-0.1*************30000**********RST72 for 3yo Fillies. Handicap Conditions.                        
RIVA SAN************6********55.5*********0********5********1.09*****8/09/07******FLEM*********d*********1400******83.67*******0.2********53************6*********-1.13***-0.04************100000*********Open for 3yo. Apprentices CANNOT claim.                            
BANTRY BAY**********5********55.5*********0********4********1.08*****9/04/07******CAULF.*******g*********1400******85**********0**********53************4*********-1.1****-0.02************45000**********Open for 2yo. Handicap Conditions.                                 
SERIOUS SPEED*******8********55.5*********0********11*******1.14****22/09/07******MPHVL********g*********1600******97.7********0.8********56************13********-1.16***-0.02************50000**********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.       
ARCADIA************12********55.5*********0********12*******1.14****15/09/07******M.V.*********g*********1200******71.05*******1.5********55.5**********7*********-1.12****0.02************120000*********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.       
EL DAANA************3********55.5*********0********2********1.06****18/08/07******CAULF.*******g*********1100******63.4********2.4********56************2*********-0.97****0.09************100000*********Open for 3yo Coltsolt & Geldingseldings. Apprentices CANNOT claim. 
SERIOUS SPEED*******8********55.5*********0********11*******1.14*****1/09/07******MPHVL *******g*********1200******71.44*******0**********55************10********-1.05****0.09************20000**********Restricted 1 Metro Win for 3yo Fillies. Handicap Conditions.       
ANTARCTIC MISS(NZ)**7********55.5*********0********9********1.12*****1/09/07******CAULF.*******g*********1200******71.15*******1.6********55************5*********-0.93****0.19************100000*********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim.                    
BANTRY BAY**********5********55.5*********0********4********1.08****25/04/07******M.V.*********d*********1514******93**********0**********55.5**********8*********-0.81****0.27************75000**********Open for 2yo. Handicap Conditions.                                 
ARCADIA************12********55.5*********0********12*******1.14**** 5/09/07******SEYMO********g*********1200******70.42*******0**********55************9*********-0.84****0.3*************24000**********RST72 for 3yo Fillies. Handicap Conditions.                        
ARCADIA************12********55.5*********0********12*******1.14****30/09/07******HILLSI*******d*********1400******85.84*******0.5********54************14********-0.74****0.4*************56000**********Open for 3yo Fillies. Handicap Conditions.                         
ZARITA(NZ)*********10********55.5*********0********14*******1.16****30/09/07******HILLSI*******d*********1400******85.84*******0**********53************7*********-0.75****0.41************56000**********Open for 3yo Fillies. Handicap Conditions.                         
EL DAANA************3********55.5*********0********2********1.06*****6/10/07******FLEM*********d*********1620*****100.14*******0**********55.5**********11********-0.65****0.41************300000*********Open for 3yo Fillies. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.       
EXTENSION OF TIME***4********55.5*********0********3********1.07****11/08/07******M.V.*********d*********1200******73.03*******0**********56************2*********-0.52****0.55************75000**********Open for 3yo Fillies. Handicap Conditions.                         
BANTRY BAY**********5********55.5*********0********4********1.08*****6/05/07******MPHVL********d*********1600******98.19*******0**********54************5*********-0.52****0.56************125000*********Open for 2yo. Apprentices CANNOT claim. Set Weights.

And it's a real bitch putting all the *s in to keep the formatting
 

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I've already backed Riva San at $12.00 IAS.
Forget last run at Flemington. That track was a disgrace.
Caulfield always favours frontrunners and Riva San will be able to get a nice position from barrier 5. Whether she can hold the others out is my only worry but at least you know she will be up front out of any trouble whilst others will need a bit of luck. At the odds on offer i think she is worth a punt.

Jestatune looks a good horse to me and at $9.00 I've taken her as well. Has only had the 1 bad run from 8 starts and that was at that awful Flemington track.
 
Don't like the runners from the wide barriers, will be a good run for one of them to win it.

I think the winner will come from Jestatune, Truly Beautiful, El Daana or Riva San.

Jestatune for mine. Tough race to pick.
 
Hayes stable hold the key to the race.
El Daana - has been regarded as the stable Oaks filly for a while know & showed why at Flemington. Sat wide but just kept going. Pretty much every horse in the race had the chance to pass her (bar Abolsute Glam that did struggle to get through) but was unable to. Horses such as Serious Speed & Riva San were within a length of her at the 250m mark but didn't get by her. Attractive Odds & I'm not sure why.
Arcadia - looks a more brilliant type filly. Gave Zarita just too much start at Sandown & won't expect that to occur again tommorrow. Awkard barrier but with Olly on board will be given every chance. If one horse just blitzes them she maybe the one with the ability to do so.
Extension of Time - everyone saw the obvious at Flemington, ie. Absolut Glam, Serious Speed down the outside in the better going. What I think has been overlooked were the horses that finished close on the inside. This was the best of them. Just kept plugging away in the worse ground to get beaten less than a length (was running away from Jestatune). Will get the gun run just in behind them & will be tough to beat with luck.

I won't be suprised to see a Hayes trifecta. The dangers to breaking into the trifecta for me are Absolut Glam & Serious Speed.

Just another to watch for the future ie. Wakeful & Oaks was Beaming Bella. I have watched the Edward Manifold many times & it lost its spot half way down the straight. Not sure what happened not featured in the stewards report & haven't seen a straight on shot. Steadied its self up & came home really well also on the inside. Unlikely to have the brilliance for 1600m tommorrow, but was the run of a filly looking for further.
 

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Been a few comments on Jestatune's poor run in the Edward Manifold, i thaught to be beaten 2 lengths while being stuck in the worst part of the track throughout the straight and not having anything close to a clear run from the 300 onwards was terrific. Only worrying thing is the same can be said for a few others. Whats the best price anyones seen for her ? i see tab's fixed odds have her at 7s but id say theyll offer a bit better in the ring tomorrow...
 
Apparently Riva San was ridden further back due to the crap gate last start and will be ridden further on the pace tommorow.

Bobby I have been following Beaming Bella since she ran a nice final 200m split at Caulfield over a month back. Oaks looks her thing just hope she isn't another Isanami..although Issy wasn't a maiden by the time she got to the Oaks!
 
Bobby Beecroft said:
Hayes stable hold the key to the race.
El Daana - has been regarded as the stable Oaks filly for a while know & showed why at Flemington. Sat wide but just kept going. Pretty much every horse in the race had the chance to pass her (bar Abolsute Glam that did struggle to get through) but was unable to. Horses such as Serious Speed & Riva San were within a length of her at the 250m mark but didn't get by her. Attractive Odds & I'm not sure why.
Arcadia - looks a more brilliant type filly. Gave Zarita just too much start at Sandown & won't expect that to occur again tommorrow. Awkard barrier but with Olly on board will be given every chance. If one horse just blitzes them she maybe the one with the ability to do so.
Extension of Time - everyone saw the obvious at Flemington, ie. Absolut Glam, Serious Speed down the outside in the better going. What I think has been overlooked were the horses that finished close on the inside. This was the best of them. Just kept plugging away in the worse ground to get beaten less than a length (was running away from Jestatune). Will get the gun run just in behind them & will be tough to beat with luck.

I won't be suprised to see a Hayes trifecta. The dangers to breaking into the trifecta for me are Absolut Glam & Serious Speed.

Just another to watch for the future ie. Wakeful & Oaks was Beaming Bella. I have watched the Edward Manifold many times & it lost its spot half way down the straight. Not sure what happened not featured in the stewards report & haven't seen a straight on shot. Steadied its self up & came home really well also on the inside. Unlikely to have the brilliance for 1600m tommorrow, but was the run of a filly looking for further.
Click to expand...

BB you obviously have a good take on these horses but my only concern is the distance, tho looking closer now the ARCADIA/ZARITA race you speak of needs to be considered.
 
Hayes has said all along El Daana is his Oaks filly & Arcadia's GF is this race.

Jestatune is $9 @ IAS

seth
 
I had a brief chat with the owner of Antarctic Miss last week and they are quietly confident she'll run well as her work has been very good. He said to forget her run in the Stutt Stakes as she whacked her head on the stalls upon jumping and also didn't seem comfortable racing at night.

In an open race she could be a bit of value.
 

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