15 wins

[Hobbes]

Collingwood: 15 + (Melbourne)=16+
Adelaide 14+ (West Coast, North)=16+
Brisbane 13.5+ (Sydney) + 1 of Collingwood (A), Sydney (H), Fremantle (A), Hawthorn (H)=14.5+
Geelong 13+ (Port, Essendon, Sydney, Richmond) =17
Hawthorn 13+ (Melbourne) + 1 of Adelaide (A), Brisbane (A), Collingwood
Fremantle 13+ (Carlton, Port) + Brisbane (H), Bulldogs (H)
GWS 13+ (North, St Kilda) + Gold Coast (A)
Gold Coast 12+ (Richmond, Carlton, Essendon, Port) + GWS (H)
Bulldogs 12+ (Melbourne, West Coast) + Fremantle (H)

So,
Collingwood 16+ (3 games)
Adelaide 16+ (2 games)
Brisbane 14.5+ (1 of 3 games)
Geelong 17+
Hawthorn 14+ (1 of 3 games)
Fremantle 15+ (1 game - I'm assuming that the Bulldogs beat them)
GWS 15+ (1 game)
Gold Coast 16+ (1 game)
Bulldogs 14+ (1 game, which I'm assuming that they win)

6 teams should reach 15 wins in sleep, plus the winner of Hawthorn and Brisbane. The loser of that game will need to win one of their two other games against contenders. The Bulldogs will need to beat Fremantle.

So, it's not even unlikely that 15 wins will miss the finals.

I offer a rundown of what 15 wins would have gotten you in other seasons - AFL era only.

1990: (Top 5) 5th.
1991: (Top 6) 4th.
1992: (Top 6) 5th. 4th had 15 wins and a draw.
1993: (Top 6) 1st. It was a shortened season of 20 games, but even 14 wins would be top.
1994: (Top 8 from here to the present day) 2nd. (Carlton had 15 wins)
1995: 4th. Essendon finished 4th with 14 wins and two draws.
1996: 4th or 5th. West Coast and Carlton both had 15 wins.
1997: 1st or 2nd. St Kilda and Geelong both had 15 wins.
1998: 2nd. Bulldogs had 15 wins.
1999: 5th. 4th had 15 wins and a draw.
2000: 3rd
2001: 4th. Richmond had 15 wins.
2002: 3rd. Adelaide had 15 wins.
2003: 2nd. Collingwood had 15 wins.
2004: 4th. Geelong had 15 wins.
2005: 3rd. Sydney had 15 wins.
2006: 3rd. Fremantle had 15 wins.
2007: 2nd or 3rd. Port and West Coast had 15 wins.
2008: 4th. 3rd had 15 wins and a draw.
2009: 3rd or 4th. Bulldogs and Collingwood had 15 wins.
2010: 4th. 3rd had 15 wins and a draw.
2011: 5th. 4th had a whopping 17 wins.
2012: 5th or 6th. West Coast and Geelong both had 15 wins.
2013: 5th. Richmond had 15 wins.
2014: 5th
2015: 5th
2016: 7th. Bulldogs had 15 wins.
2017: 3rd or 4th. Richmond had 15 wins, GWS 14 wins and two draws.
2018: 3rd or 4th. Collingwood and Hawthorn had 15 wins.
2019. 4th or 5th. Collingwood and West Coast had 15 wins.
2020: 1st, but it was a short season. The most comparable win total (12/17 - a bit more than 2/3) was worth 4th or 5th, which is what I'll use in the sum-up.
2021: 4th, 5th or 6th.
2022: 6th.
2023: 5th.
2024: 3rd or 4th.

1st: 1993
1st/2nd: 1997
2nd: 1994, 1998, 2003
2nd/3rd: 2007
3rd: 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006
3rd/4th: 2009, 2017, 2018, 2024
4th: 1991, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2008, 2010
4th/5th: 1996, 2019, 2020
4th/5th/6th: 2021
5th: 1990, 1992, 1999, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2023
5th/6th: 2012
6th: 2022
7th: 2016

1st: 1.5 times
Top 2: 5.5 times
3rd-4th: 16.33 times
5th-6th: 12.17 times
7th: 1 time

So, a double-chance about 65% of the time.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Look, I'm just hanging out for our 2nd win atm.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Great stuff. It’s pretty crazy

Does illustrate how poor the bottom nine is, or at least how big of a gap there is between top nine and bottom nine if you want to be kind. Freo have dropped four games somehow (lost twice against the Swans), the other top sides have barely dropped a game. Adelaide, Collingwood and Dogs are still flawless

 

[bzparkes]

Look, I'm just hanging out for our 2nd win atm.

Should happen next season.

Just 14 more seasons to go until we reach the magical 15 number.

 

[Quinz]

9th could finish 6 games ahead of 10th. Wild.

 

[Hobbes]

9th could finish 6 games ahead of 10th. Wild.

Perhaps mathematically possible, but it’s difficult to see Sydney losing to WC or Essendon.