- Feb 13, 2011
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- AFL Club
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Would love to know how a different year looks, last year was a bit of an outlier in terms of evenness and the last 5 rounds were great because of it.
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No it is not. People have asserted that there will be more dead rubbers in the lead up to the end of the 17th round under a 17-5 than there is currently in the lead up to round 22 (23 actually). I demonstrated this is false by comparing the 5 years since we went to 18 teams. Apples with apples to challenge a defined myth.
I disagree on the first point. I got narky because someone accused me of making shyt up. I'm glad you are amused. That's a consolation for your lack of learning from my insights
So, there you have it. Once and for all we can put paid to the assertion that the lead up to round 17 will be as bad as or, as some have asserted, worse than the status quo. With 17-5 we get a superior finish to the regular season (in a balanced draw) and far more exciting last five weeks before the finals than the red and brown sludge presented above
I can't find anywhere where you say that all teams will play 11 home and 11 away games (except the Northern teams) with your 17-5 (clean slate) system or even your 17-5 (8pts in the last 5) system.FFS.......*takes breath....ffs...
Teams will play a balanced number of home and away games each year except for Sydney and qld teams who alternate derby. Teams currently get awarded home elimination and qualification finals based on a skewed home and away season
You demonstrated nothing with your figures. You compared the 5 years since we went to 18 teams with what? The years before we went to 18 teams?
Assuming you were actually trying to gain evidence that there would be fewer dead rubbers in a 17-5(clean slate) system than the current system, you didn't go close to showing that.
I didn't need to, it is immaterialDid you make sure that you compared the first 17 unique games (ie a reflection of 17-5) in each year with the last 5 double up games?
And did you factor in the chances of dead rubbers towards the end of rounds 1-17 when the position at round 17 would determine the 5 game mini series?
Or did you just look at rounds 15-17 and compare them to rounds 21-23, without any recognition that we currently operate in a very different system? Most or all of the difference is due to the number of games already played - try and compare round 10-12 with 15-17 over the last 5 years - I bet that you will find more live rubbers in the early rounds than the late. It's pretty basic stuff.
Your premise that 17 games is enough to start again with a 5 game de facto final series that somehow is a valid way of determining the positions in the real finals is flawed at best.
17 games with an uneven number of home and always will give a skewed result in the lead up to the 5 mini series.
5 games will be given way too much significance given that teams don't get the chance to play 12 others in this mini series. The chances of a fair distribution of games is both low and critically important, given the increased significance of these 5 games.
I am disappointed that you can't see what is wrong with your thinking. You claim to disprove a myth, but have just shown yourself incapable of clear reasoning.
I'll try to put it in words of few syllables for you.
End of any series has more dead rubbers, because it's almost over.
Splitting a season into two series means dead rubbers towards the end of both series.
I'll just add that shorter series must have fewer dead rubbers, but they are also less valid because of the smaller sample size.
The following demonstrates that you indeed made stuff up:
Your pretty graphs showed nothing of the sort, yet you made a grand statement that there would be fewer dead rubbers in the lead up to round 17, the 5 games would be balanced somehow. That's making s**t up.
I can't find anywhere where you say that all teams will play 11 home and 11 away games (except the Northern teams) with your 17-5 (clean slate) system or even your 17-5 (8pts in the last 5) system.
You made this s**t up too.
But keep being snarky, or actually try to understand what you are promoting.
Sorry dude you think you know what your are talking about but you don't.
Yes I did.
I didn't need to, it is immaterial
Yes i did
That is correct. The reasons there are far less dead rubbers are
1) There are 5 less rounds for the ladder to "stretch"
2) There are 12 spots at that stage that will see you survive
Going back another 5 rounds would see the ladder tighter still. That would be silly place to stop though as you haven't even completed a single round robin. It is only worthwhile going past a single round robin if you are going to complete another. To do so without is ridiculous when you have brilliant options like 17-5 available. The only reason people are argueing otherwise is classic is-ought thinking
This is incorrect and has been explained to you several times.
You should reserve your disappointment for yourself. There are far less games with at least one team with nothing to play for under 17-5 as I have now clearly demonstrated
If your reasoning doesn't align with the evidence then it is surely your reasoning that is wrong
Yes and no. They are more valid if the teams in it have been determined by a completed round robin than a 1 and 5/17ths imbalanced round robin
No, I haven't claimed all teams will play 11 home games. I've claimed that all teams bar the sydney ann QLD teams play a balanced draw in the first 17 games and that from this balanced draw the home games in the 5 round second phase are determined.
I know very well what I'm "promoting". You are like many of the nay sayers on this thread. Full of hot air but very light on in reason and analysis
A few things that may/may not have been discussed
1) Home game distribution. An anomaly of this fixture is that there could be some teams getting 10 home games and others that get 12. To distribute home games in the 17 round phase, I would give 8 home games to each team, plus 1 shared gate rivalry round. Then, in the 5 round phase, I'd simply give the top 3 teams of each pool 3 home games, and the bottom 3 teams 2 home games. I reckon that's a pretty fair distribution
2) Carryover of premiership points. One thing that needs to be decided is whether or not premiership points are carried over. It is my opinion that carrying over all points defeats the purpose of the exercise, but you shouldn't be able to win 5-6 games, sneak into 12th, then dominate the pool stage and end up 7th. I reckon the points should be weighted. If you halved points of the 2016 table after 17 games (admittedly, this isn't a completely accurate reflection, but gives an idea of scaling), there would be 1 game separating 1st from 6th, and 2 games separating 7th from 12th. In 2015, you get 2 and 1/2 respectively, for 2014 it's 1 1/2 each.
But none of this answers the question about what happens to the dead rubbers before Round 17.
Because it is true. There is zero chance that there will be nothing but dead rubbers in the last two rounds in either the middle or top group whatever your finals system. This is another thing you are wrong on and, no doubt once you have been proven so (which I will shortly do oyou the honors yet again - the bill is in the mail), will change tact and make no adjustment to your ironic penchant for calling others idiotic
And here is the first post in a series dismissing the second myth, that the second phase will result in a stack of dead rubbers as teams "settle in to position"
The following has used a fixture and ladder generator to produce a fixture for the second phase of the top group. I have populated the first three rounds with the actual results in the first matches between the teams from 2016
With two games to go you'll notice that everyone can still finish anywhere
View attachment 338402
Going in to round 4, every games is an "8 point game" by the measure I used previously. Of course if a team was undefeated and another team did not have a win, this would not be the case. It would not be a dead rubber as both teams could still move (either up or down)
I'll be back in a tick with the ladder after 4 rounds
that is correct. The reasons there are far less dead rubbers are
1) There are 5 less rounds for the ladder to "stretch"
2) There are 12 spots at that stage that will see you survive
You say you have explained things multiple times but you haven't. Because you can't. Just because you say you have doesn't mean you have.
The sad thing is that even after all the arguments that have been forward to show you that your system is the stupidest of all stupid systems, you continue with the stupidity.
Every thread on 17-5 systems ends up being another vehicle for you to promote your stupid system. Which means other ideas get no oxygen. It is very frustrating.
Easy, a team could be the away team to the same team TWICE in a season under this 17-5 system, something that has never ever happened before, please tell me how that is not a disadvantage.
Example: Geelong for example had home games against Fre, Bris, GC, WCE, NM, Syd, Melb and Rich.
Geelong finishes in the same group as the bolded along with GWS and Adelaide who they played away.
Geelong finished top 3 in their group and are guaranteed 3 home games.
Please tell me who out of Fre, WCE and Syd draws the unlucky short straw and has to travel to KP twice in the same season for the first time in history.
I keep reading from the usual suspect how this 17-5 is a fairer system, i have just shown in 1 example how it is not.
And you get that evens out right? If a team plays two games away to one team then they have a net home advantage against the others. This bias is nothing compared to the biases in the current system.I'm still waiting for a response Seeds or maybe noobpie can answer it
Also i have had a call from the Adelaide Oval trustee's and they are demanding Adelaide and Port Adelaide fulfill their ground agreement of 11 home games each, does that mean the AFL will have to manipulate the last 5 games to get this which in turn will piss off every other club who will dexmand they also get 11 home games, can't do that under a 17-5 system because you would need 3 teams each who have played 9 and 8 home games landing in each group.
You're advocating a points get wiped system yet are unable to see how there might be many dead rubbers heading into that stage - it's fanciful.
I'm still waiting for a response Seeds or maybe noobpie can answer it
Also i have had a call from the Adelaide Oval trustee's and they are demanding Adelaide and Port Adelaide fulfill their ground agreement of 11 home games each, does that mean the AFL will have to manipulate the last 5 games to get this which in turn will piss off every other club who will demand they also get 11 home games, can't do that under a 17-5 system because you would need 3 teams each who have played 9 and 8 home games landing in each group.
Of course there's a chance it could happen. If the points carry over from round 17 then the position may already be split. Add another 4 games between each of the teams competing for the same spots (ie "8 point games") and there's every chance positions will be locked by round 21 (game 20).
I never called others idiotic, I said the AFL's suggestion of changing to a 17-5 fixture was idiotic and the worst of any of the potential options.
But none of this answers the question about what happens to the dead rubbers before Round 17.
If, as you say, all points are wiped, then there is little incentive for teams to finish higher. And you can argue they get more home games, but the example teams you have used from last year, 5 of them are Vic teams and 1 is from Adelaide.
Each of those Victorian teams will play 4 games at 'home' (i.e. no travel) and one away - some all 5 games at home with the sole interstate team visiting them. So really, there is little incentive for them to bust a nut before this 'mini-finals' series comes once they are 'safe' in that group of 6. The dead rubbers just get moved to a different part of the season.
There seems to be a lot of angst, too, about these 'dead rubbers'. Some teams, regardless of who they're playing or where they are on the table, will give their all. Some managers think that 'winning form is good form' and will play right up to R22 in this way. It's only been recently that Freo and NM have 'tanked' games before finals and to good effect. Other teams in the bottom half of the table might want to finish the season off well against good opposition. Others play the kids.
Assuming that a game is a dud because one of the teams 'doesn't have skin in it' is a pretty bold claim. Some games are duds because of the teams. You only have to witness the last couple of seasons when Carlton and Richmond had the lion's share of Friday night games - games that were important but were god awful to watch. There are no guarantees.
I understand why you like the concept, but with the changes that need to be made to H&A games and 'sharing' Derbies and the uncertainty fans will have at the start of the season with memberships and teams will have with travel, I don't see it being worth it.
And that brings me to my final point on this topic. How many good games a week do we actually need? By that, I mean, how many games are actually broadcast a week in each market? If only 4 games a week are shown live (which is, I think, how it is in WA), then wouldn't it be better to let the networks adjust their schedule a bit and change a dead-rubber game to one that has a bearing on final 8 positions? Or they could try and get the AFL to schedule games in the last few rounds between teams that are more 'likely' to be playing finals.
Do you not think there would be bias under a 17-5 system, holy s**t the AFL would manipulate who plays home and away in the first 17 games and the final five games, if you think they wouldn't then you need to get your head out of the sand.And you get that evens out right? If a team plays two games away to one team then they have a net home advantage against the others. This bias is nothing compared to the biases in the current system.
The fact you raise this as an issue suggests you are thinking about the system wrong. Under the 17-5 system the home and away is only 17 rounds. Rounds 18-22 are effectively mini finals. They are different leagues and should not be compared. Do you complain about teams today who play an away game against a team in the home and away and then play an away game against them in a final? Nope I bet it hasn't even crossed your mind.
Not going to happen in both instances and either will this stupid 17-5 system that has too many flaws.What is critical is that:
-the 17 is balanced from year to year (that the teams you played home in that phase one year are the teams you will play away in that phase the next year
-that the determination of home and away games in the second phase are based on a clear set of rules that primarily, if they are to favour some teams over others, are advantageous to the teams that finished higher in the group
I can see that it is a concern held by multiple people that a team could play another team away both in the 17 phase and the 5 phase. It is true that this is unavoidable on occasion without creating other "problems". I think it is certainly debatable that this is a problem at all. A team having to play away twice to the same team over the two phases still has a balanced draw in both over all.
As to the contractual issues, these would need to be renegotiated. I suspect ultimately we will end up with an 18-5 system though with return derbies that would guarantee ever team at least 11 home games