2010 grandfinal

[TheLastEmperor]

who plays off in it?

 

[MagooTheRoo]

who plays off in it?

Winner Preliminary Final 1 v Winner Preliminary Final 2

 

[Roby]

St Kilda will beat Hawks in the big one.

 

[raff23]

the poll doesnt consider sides outside the top 4, best chance this yr for a team to do it imo.

 

[gbatman]

for the first time in years i have absolutly no idea. At this stage i would say collingwood and someone, probably the bulldogs.

 

[NAUGHT5]

Hard to go past the Pies and Cats. St.Kilda also a chance.

Bulldogs are still 4th best, havent closed the gap and will most likely crash out in another prelim.

5-8 are making up numbers, may cause an upset but wont make it.

 

[Footy Legend]

I said Pies vs Geelong, but St Kilda, Bulldogs could make it, and even Hawthorn is a possibility if they can play consistently for the finals series.

 

[Duskfire]

the poll doesnt consider sides outside the top 4, best chance this yr for a team to do it imo.

People say that every year. Who out of the teams 5 - 8 are a good chance to be able to beat two of the top four on their way to the GF?

 

[mattys123]

It seems 2 finals will decide who plays off.

Week 1, the Geelong vs Stkilda game is huge, as the loser will probably have to face Collingwood, after winning another final that is.

Week 3, the prelim mentioned above, where the Pies and the loser of the Cats/Saints final will go head to head, this may be the game of the finals series.

I'd still sat Pies/Cats, but in my mind, the winner of that first final (Cats vs Saints) are a cert for the GF, while the Pies have the advantage of playing the Dogs first up.

Pies/Cats, Saints/Cats or Saints/Pies are the only 3 options.

 

[HARKER]

Where's the Carlton vs. button?

Alright then; Geelong vs. Collingwood would make for the most interesting and most likely Grand Final.
Winner: Geelong by plenty.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

Saints/Cats (not trolling)

 

[db swannie]

Probably Pies v Cats, but as previously said, Cats v Saints in week 1 will be a very important game. Pies will demolish Bulldogs week 1, and maybe open the door for a side in 5-8 to make a prelim, depending on whether the Dogs try and carry johnno through the finals or replace him. If Hawks finish 8th and beat Freo they are a big chance to roll the Dogs and make the prelim. A lot of IFs in there though...

 

[worsfold]

Saints v Cats

Saints to get pay back

collingwood peaked too early for mine

 

[Warner_Bros_FC]

Okay guys I've done some research of the last 10 GF and this is what i've come up with.

The results are as followed:

YEARWINNER RUNNER-UP

2000 1st (ess) 3rd (mel)
​

2001 2nd (bri) 1st (ess)
2002 2nd (bri) 4th (col)
2003 3rd (bri) 2nd (col)
2004 1st (por) 2nd (bri)
2005 3rd (syd) 2nd (wce)
2006 1st (wce) 4th (syd)
2007 1st (gee) 2nd (por)
2008 2nd (haw) 1st (gee)
2009 2nd (gee) 1st (stk)

As most of us know, since 2000 (the current finals system) only the top 4 have made it to the Grand Final. With placings 5-8 not once going to the big dance.

Grand Final Births

1st: 7 times (00, 01, 04, 06, 07, 08, 09) 35%
2nd: 8 times (01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 07, 08, 09) 40%
3rd: 3 times (00, 03, 05) 15%
4th: 2 times (02, 06) 10%

As the data shows the top 2 has made up for the bulk of GF births since 2000. In fact, either 1st or 2nd has made it to the GF every time since the system has come in. That's a 100% record. So if the trend continues, this year either Collingwood or Geelong are guaranteed to make the GF. Interesting that 2nd place has had more appearances than 1st place. Is the road easier for 2nd place to get to the GF?

As for 3rd and 4th, when they have made the GF they have never met each other. So only 1 of either St. Kilda or my team the Bulldogs will make it (unlikely as only 25% GF appearances come from 3 or 4).

Grand Final Victories

1st: 4 times (00, 04, 06, 07) 40%
2nd: 4 times (01, 02, 08, 09) 40%
3rd: 2 times (03, 05) 20%
4th: 0 times 0%

So both 1st and 2nd both have an same record at winning the GF (4 times each). 1 and 2 make up 80% of all the GF won. So again it will be likely Collingwood or Geelong. But the damning stat is at the bottom with 4th never winning a GF. All other placings have at least a 50% record of winning a GF once they have made it to the GF.

1st: (4/7) 57%
2nd: (4/8) 50%
3rd: (2/3) 67%
4th: (0/2) 0%

Head to Heads

1st V 2nd: 5 times 2001(L), 2004(W), 2007(W), 2008(L), 2009(L) -2/5- 40%
1st V 3rd 2000 (W)
1st V 4th: 2006 (W)

2nd V 3rd: 2003 (L), 2005 (L) -0/2- 0%
2nd V 4th: 2002 (W)

3rd V 4th: N/A

I wasn't sure if I should include the h2h since the post is quite long already. But I just wanted to demonstrate that the GF is likely a Col V Gee affair. That is 50% of matches have been between 1 V 2.

Also note that 2nd have a 0% record against 3rd. Again these are small samples and the finals system has only been in place for 10 years.

In saying that I hope the Bulldogs really buck the trend win one! In spite of all the evidence I will say it's a Bulldogs V St. Kilda GF! (Currently 3 V 4 have never met in a GF)

This is sport afterall and its not placed out on a piece of paper! Go the Dogs! Woof! Woof!

 

[Del80659]

geelong will play winner of st. kilda collingwood

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Geelong v Collingwood with Collingwood winning

 

[Swooper18]

Where's the Carlton vs. button?

Alright then; Geelong vs. Collingwood would make for the most interesting and most likely Grand Final.
Winner: Geelong by plenty.

Geelong will not win by a comprehensive margin. Why? Due to their obsession with their handpasses. One wrong move and their structures will fall apart. This will only eventuate without any pressure applied to the ball carriers. Now **** off, you blunt analyst.

 

[Donakebab]

the poll doesnt consider sides outside the top 4, best chance this yr for a team to do it imo.

lol, only saying this because your mob is outside the top 4. Won't happen, Cats, Pies and Saints are well ahead of the rest.

 

[Forgotten Legend]

Very hard to know what will happen in September...

I think atm it will be one of the three:

Collingwood v Geelong

Geelong v Saint Kilda

Collingwood v Saint Kilda

I dont think dogs have what it takes this year and the hawks are fumbling to much to be a real threat.

 

[muskio]

Magpies over Cats by 13.

 

[NAUGHT5]

Geelong will not win by a comprehensive margin. Why? Due to their obsession with their handpasses. One wrong move and their structures will fall apart. This will only eventuate without any pressure applied to the ball carriers. Now **** off, you blunt analyst.

Collingwood beat them once and they think they have them all figured out

 

[Baby Duck]

Collingwood beat them once and they think they have them all figured out

Incredible isn't it? Collingwood beat us and suddenly every supporter is an expert on our team and gameplan.

Anyway, the most likely is Geelong Vs Collingwood. St Kilda don't look quite as good as last year, but they are a still a huge chance and look to be peaking at the right time. I can't see the Bulldogs getting there, they still lack something which I can't quite put my finger on. Hawthorn shouldn't be underestimated either, but will probably struggle. Roughead seems to be very low on confidence which could be very detrimental come finals.

Who knows, anything can happen on any given day...