2012 list management.

[SandyToes]

Where and why did the Dicko stuff start?
Of the younger guys he's been the face of the club
We have a 4x10 in the living room of the family with the life-size Dicko cutout.
Interesting to see Hampson and Warnock on the sale block
We will need an older body ruck to help out over the next couple of years
It was instructive to see how a seemingly mid-range but mature player like Renouf carved us up v The Power

 

[smashbox gill]

well assuming carlton finishes 8th then we get pick 14. would that be good enough to land caddy?

 

[Sunny_]

well assuming carlton finishes 8th then we get pick 14. would that be good enough to land caddy?

Yep. In my opinion, anyway.

 

[SandyToes]

well assuming carlton finishes 8th then we get pick 14. would that be good enough to land caddy?

You realise he went 7th in a fairly strong draft 2010?

 

[supernova_]

Dixon and Smith are 22 each, so they arent the 19year olds that they get bundled with sometimes. It's probably moreso their mental application that gets them through games than the physical side of things. Can't see either of them going considering they are both queenslanders.

As I've said before it's going to be the fringe players who are most likely offered up for trade as the top 30 or so players you'd expect would be the priorities to keep. The 15 odd after that are probably disposable to be perfectly honest. The likes of Dixon, Caddy fit into our best 30, so you'd like to hope we can keep them.

It's all about needs, and we have some talls on our list that would probably get better opportunity elsewhere, e.g. Nicholls, or even as far as Gorringe or Hickey? (Not all of those 3 though). But you could easily see them departing over the coming years for further opportunity and use them as trade currency to get what we need, which is some more hard ball winners. Particularly if Caddy is moved on who is probably 1 of our best 5 clearance players as far as I'm concerned.

If Caddy is moved, we need to ignore Tippett, we need to put our eggs in the ball winners as with him gone, all of a sudden we just reduced our capabilities to win the contested ball by 20%. I would rather us go for Beams if theres no more salary left down at Collingwood, Caddy and 1 of Hickey/Nicholls plus a pick even to get Beams back to QLD. Or maybe something a little less and get Taylor Hunt?

We have an oversupply of young talls, and its probably a bit of a lottery as to which will come on as they usually dont show until about 24-25 years old, unless your freak like Nic Natanui. We have an undersupply of contested hard ball winners.

So in my view we need a young contested ball winner (21-25 yo). We have to reduce our list by 2, so why not throw 2 or 3 players and be aggressive about it?.

Of course we have O'Meara to come in next year, but lets be realistic. He is an 18 year old he will have pressure on him next year, and we need to build an environment that develops our kids successfully. Lets not have super high expectations by having O'Meara (18), Swallow (20), Prestia (20), Smith (22), coupled with Ablett (29?), Rischitelli (27). Theres a glaring hole there in the spread of age, being that 22-26 bracket which is argueably some of your peak in your career.

Target Beams (Coll)
Target Hunt (Geel)
Target 1 of the Selwoods (West Coast)

Something of this ilk, and be aggressive about it. No reason we cant throw 3 players to get 1 decent back I would have thought? Boak would probably be perfect, but he appears to want to get back to Geelong if anywhere. Someone of that nature anyway.

 

[supernova_]

You realise he went 7th in a fairly strong draft 2010?

I'm with you Sandy, I dont understand why we are expecting less for him?

He is a starting onballer for us this year, pick 7, we have invested 2 years of development into him. He is rated only 2nd behind Swallow in our young midfielders. If Caddy goes, it has to go to an auction and a bidding war.

 

[Sunny_]

From what I understand, that's just not the way trading works.

Even if he was picked in the top 10 a couple of years ago with 2 pre-seasons in him, no club would trade a pick inside the top 10, especially in a draft like this.

At the moment, Caddy is a player averaging 17 disposals a game with nearly 3 tackles. If I were a club looking at Caddy, that is what I would be looking at primarily. Not whether or not he was pick #7, though that would come into the back of mind looking at his possible potential.

The only exception I can think of where a club might trade a player for a top 10 pick is if that player is a legit star. For instance, I could see Jimmy Bartel being traded for pick 5-7 in this draft. I think Judd at his absoulute peak, coming off a couple of Grand finals, was only worth pick 3 and 20.

Seems to me that as soon as a player is drafted, they go down in value unless showing that they are the second coming. Which Caddy, as good as he's been, just has yet to show.

Not saying that I would accept anything, but I reckon that a pick between 15-20, given his potential, his injuries and numbers would go alright.

 

[supernova_]

yeah ok, I see what your saying Sunny. Similar to how you buy a brand new car, and you drive it out the the driveway instantly loses 10-20% of its value because it's now considered used?

Perhaps I'm being defensive about our currency and stocks we hold, but isn't the way trading works on future earnings? Similar to stock/currency trading?

So if I continue on from this, is it the new car theory, or the wall street trading theory for football trading? It's a bit puzzling to be honest and how we value a players worth, and basically potential earnings on the football field.

Going on the Judd trade you could say yes he was at his peak, so what would his future earnings be? Would you have assumed he was going to steadily decline? Surely Judd couldn't have kept his repeat explosiveness at the contests up for a decade? Turns out he did, and he's probably on the decline only from this year. Point is it's a gamble, its a trade.

So going back, how much is Caddy's worth? Seeing he has probably another 200 odd games of football in his career, you'd like something healthy in return? I don't think he's going to turn into a spud (see Cale Morton pick 4? at Melbourne, or Gumbleton pick 2 at Essendon). We haven't seen Caddy's "peak" his resume is about 14 games long or so? If he wants to go back to Victoria, it has to be an auction and he shouldn't care where he ends up he's young, enthusiastic about his footy. Whether he gets to an established club he might get short term success, or to a struggling club it might be a bit prolonged and towards the end of his career.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Dixon and Smith are 22 each, so they arent the 19year olds that they get bundled with sometimes. It's probably moreso their mental application that gets them through games than the physical side of things. Can't see either of them going considering they are both queenslanders.

As I've said before it's going to be the fringe players who are most likely offered up for trade as the top 30 or so players you'd expect would be the priorities to keep. The 15 odd after that are probably disposable to be perfectly honest. The likes of Dixon, Caddy fit into our best 30, so you'd like to hope we can keep them.

It's all about needs, and we have some talls on our list that would probably get better opportunity elsewhere, e.g. Nicholls, or even as far as Gorringe or Hickey? (Not all of those 3 though). But you could easily see them departing over the coming years for further opportunity and use them as trade currency to get what we need, which is some more hard ball winners. Particularly if Caddy is moved on who is probably 1 of our best 5 clearance players as far as I'm concerned.

If Caddy is moved, we need to ignore Tippett, we need to put our eggs in the ball winners as with him gone, all of a sudden we just reduced our capabilities to win the contested ball by 20%. I would rather us go for Beams if theres no more salary left down at Collingwood, Caddy and 1 of Hickey/Nicholls plus a pick even to get Beams back to QLD. Or maybe something a little less and get Taylor Hunt?

We have an oversupply of young talls, and its probably a bit of a lottery as to which will come on as they usually dont show until about 24-25 years old, unless your freak like Nic Natanui. We have an undersupply of contested hard ball winners.

So in my view we need a young contested ball winner (21-25 yo). We have to reduce our list by 2, so why not throw 2 or 3 players and be aggressive about it?.

Of course we have O'Meara to come in next year, but lets be realistic. He is an 18 year old he will have pressure on him next year, and we need to build an environment that develops our kids successfully. Lets not have super high expectations by having O'Meara (18), Swallow (20), Prestia (20), Smith (22), coupled with Ablett (29?), Rischitelli (27). Theres a glaring hole there in the spread of age, being that 22-26 bracket which is argueably some of your peak in your career.

What about K, I think he's 24-25 plus we have Bennell, Toy, Hall, Coad, Taylor, Gillbie, Allen Sexton. reasonable depth IMO

 

[Iva Bigun]

I'm with you Sandy, I dont understand why we are expecting less for him?

He is a starting onballer for us this year, pick 7, we have invested 2 years of development into him. He is rated only 2nd behind Swallow in our young midfielders. If Caddy goes, it has to go to an auction and a bidding war.

Agree, and we need to sow the seed with teams now

 

[Sunny_]

yeah ok, I see what your saying Sunny. Similar to how you buy a brand new car, and you drive it out the the driveway instantly loses 10-20% of its value because it's now considered used?

...

So going back, how much is Caddy's worth? Seeing he has probably another 200 odd games of football in his career, you'd like something healthy in return? I don't think he's going to turn into a spud (see Cale Morton pick 4? at Melbourne, or Gumbleton pick 2 at Essendon). We haven't seen Caddy's "peak" his resume is about 14 games long or so? If he wants to go back to Victoria, it has to be an auction and he shouldn't care where he ends up he's young, enthusiastic about his footy. Whether he gets to an established club he might get short term success, or to a struggling club it might be a bit prolonged and towards the end of his career.

That's how I see it, yeah. Good analogy.

I think he's worth about a pick 15-20. A pick in the 15-20 range in this draft is going to get us a good player. Plenty of young mids who love to crash into packs and get the contested ball at this level. I wouldn't go much higher than that though. Anything over a first round pick I would pass on.

It's not how we hoped it would have worked out, same with Toy, but that's just the way it is.

 

[bballscout]

We don't need to tinker too much with the list, I'd target Beams and maybe a big bodied forward ala White, that's it.

Offer Beams big money above 500k he could get at Pies and front end it if possible. He is very young still and a ball winner. Offer Caddy/Nicholls. Thats a fair trade, pies free up cap space while we free up list space/improve best 22.

 

[Sunny_]

Just had a look at the Carlton board.

They appear to think that Charlie Dixon is on the trade table because of Hamo's stupid article about list management the other day. Not that I blame the Blues supporters as they of course don't know, but yeah. That's why they're inquiring.

 

[supernova_]

What about K, I think he's 24-25 plus we have Bennell, Toy, Hall, Coad, Taylor, Gillbie, Allen Sexton. reasonable depth IMO

They are not contested ball winners, all of them are outside players, obviously bar Hunt. But I think its conservative to say he is still an experiment obviously leaning more towards an AFL player, but do we know if he will go back to League once the 7 figure sum drys up? Dont get me wrong, I love the bloke, but will he still be there in 5 years time on 200k-300k?

 

[bballscout]

Don't know where all the Hunt love comes from. A bloke on 1mil per Season with the output of a 200k player. Next contract I hope he is offered what he is worth on field, nothing more.

 

[supernova_]

Don't know where all the Hunt love comes from. A bloke on 1mil per Season with the output of a 200k player. Next contract I hope he is offered what he is worth on field, nothing more.

he is a likeable character in my opinion. As I said, will be he be around after his next contract when he is on the 200-300k.

Realistically, we have Fraser and Brown probably going to be pushed out at the end of this year, and next year respectively. You would think that will free up about 800k - 1million over the next 2 years as well?

 

[MaybeGC]

They are not contested ball winners, all of them are outside players, obviously bar Hunt. But I think its conservative to say he is still an experiment obviously leaning more towards an AFL player, but do we know if he will go back to League once the 7 figure sum drys up? Dont get me wrong, I love the bloke, but will he still be there in 5 years time on 200k-300k?

Maybe that's the problem, have these players been given opportunity to develop their inside game. Hunt seems to be the only player on the list given the opportunity to ''learn ön the job", so to speak at the highest level. The young blokes get dropped or not even given an opportunity as yet to develop.

 

[supernova_]

Maybe that's the problem, have these players been given opportunity to develop their inside game. Hunt seems to be the only player on the list given the opportunity to ''learn ön the job", so to speak at the highest level. The young blokes get dropped or not even given an opportunity as yet to develop.

I know what your saying, but you kinda know what your gonna get when you draft 17/18 year olds and what they played during their early career. It's the whole reason they got drafted.

You can't throw the likes of Sexton, or Shaw, or Russell in the midfield, they will get shoved off the ball, they are just not physically developed or have the experience. If they want those skills they will need to work physically (weights/conditioning), and learn the midfield craft in the magoos.

I dont think any club in the AFL throws 18 year olds in the deepend and puts them on the ball like GC and GWS have been forced too, they generally develop around the fringes, wings, half forward/back flanks, or pockets. They develop over the years in the weights room, and skills training at contests in the reserves etc.

Hunt is given the opportunity because he has elite experience in competetive sport and is physically built for the contest. How often in the history of the AFL have you seen a recruit come in and the coaching staff say, "You're carrying too much muscle lose 10-15kg"

 

[Big Red Machine]

Just off the top of my head: JJ, Rory, Bocky, Dicko, Smith, Hickey, Gorringe, Day and Lynch are all either ruckmen or are tall enough/got enough hops to not embarrass themselves at a stoppage.

and that's not even taking into account Fraser if the club somehow retains him (Weirder things have happened)

Just talking about K for a second: He's the kind of guy like Campbell that's going to go hard at the ball - Remember that month or so where he put a body on someone and he started getting the "Human Wrecking Ball" nickname?

Remembering the hit on Monfries and the one I personally saw up close against Pavlich, If he can do that all year on a consistent basis he's worth his weight in gold. We need some more hard in two way players like Campbell, Hunt (At times) and dare I say maybe Iles than flashy ball winners which we are going to have an abundance of skilful ones in a year or two. Just a thought.

 

[Sunny_]

So just to recap, we have to get rid of 8 players at the end of this year.

Since we have to reduce our list size by 4, and have to take 3 draft picks + elevate Horsley. So that means 8 need to go.

At the moment, this is how I see our trade/draft period going.

List changes:

Retire:
Josh Fraser
Nathan Krakouer

Lose: -2 people from list.

Delist:
Magin
Moss

Lose: -2 people from list.

I think we'll also have to put someone on the rookie list in order to elevate Horsley to the senior list. Perhaps Jackson Allen? Re-rookie him. I don't think anyone else will really grab him through Free Agency. Very much a project player.


Trade period:

During trade week, I am tipping that we will trade Caddy, Toy, Jolly and Nicholls. Through all of these on top of upgrading our own second round pick, we'll get one good first round pick.

If Nicholls or Jolly aren't traded, I can see them being delisted. Not sure I can see them hanging around.

Caddy
Toy
Jolly
Nicholls
Second round pick.

Lose: -4 people from list + 2nd round pick.

Gain: Good first round pick.


Draft:
So now we have room for four places on the senior list, with Horsley already on it after being elevated for Allen.

In the draft, we have pick #1-2 + pick #10-15. We will use our third round pick on a zone selection (Clay Cameron). Then we'll use our last senior spot to bring O'Meara into the senior list.

Well, it will happen something like that, anyway.

 

[supernova_]

Any chance of twittering some of the media people, Mike Whiting, Emma Quayle on what their opinions are on Caddy? His worth, or if they think he will be traded or re-sign.

 

[Sunny_]

We'll also rookie some of the Academy Players, I think. Boston being one of them.

 

[manureid]

Do you think you would get much value for Jolly? Has not come on this season like i was hoping he would. How is his form in the 2nds?

 

[Sunny_]

Do you think you would get much value for Jolly? Has not come on this season like i was hoping he would. How is his form in the 2nds?

Probably not on his own, hence why he would go bundled with something else probably.

Inconsistent in the 2s. Probably the best way to describe him.

 

[manureid]

Has he had any injury setbacks this season? From memory he did last season? If not, it is disappointing he has not come on.