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2013 Apia International

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Sir Vlado said:
Time to turn it up and proclaim him the favourite for the Australian Open? ;)

It worked for him here.
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Yep...... although I still see the bookmakers giving him silly odds
. And just looking at it now, he's 8th favourite at $51. Probably more the fact he's 8th favourite is absurd but I would have him paying over $100
 
For every player overrated by the odds, there's a corresponding underrated one.

I'm glad Tomic and Hewitt got wins this week because they're Australian, but the sports better in me is also glad because now there will be some very juicy odds available for their opponents next week. I hope Hewitt beats Tipseravic, but I will be putting some money on the Serb in case he doesn't.
 
Is this only Aus bookmakers or around the world? Looking back on it, having him favourite for Sydney wasn't that farfetched considering the wave of good form he was riding on + the lack of a number of top players meant to play. Having said that, putting him 8th favourite for the AO is a bit of a stretch.
 
Why do players bother with exhibition tournaments such as Kooyong when they can play in ATP 250 tournaments?
 

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Tomic is 5th favourite with the TAB now behind Novak, Murray, Fed and Del Potro.

Look you'd never back him to win the tournament but I don't think logically it's that big a stretch.

It's more likely a player on the up curve, like Tomic or Dimitrov, jump out of the ground and challenge the big boys then guys like Ferrer or Berdych or Tipsy or Almagro who the big 4 have just toyed with repeatedly over the years.
 

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Selective Retention said:
Tomic is 5th favourite with the TAB now behind Novak, Murray, Fed and Del Potro.

Look you'd never back him to win the tournament but I don't think logically it's that big a stretch.

It's more likely a player on the up curve, like Tomic or Dimitrov, jump out of the ground and challenge the big boys then guys like Ferrer or Berdych or Tipsy or Almagro who the big 4 have just toyed with repeatedly over the years.
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Tomic needs to get past Federer before he is even on the radar as a tournament winner. I'd have him maybe in the top 16 or so favourites, but there are atleast 10-12 much better chances at this time. Ferrer & Delpo should be 4th/5th favourite, they are most likely to make the semis outside the top 3, and from there anything can happen.

Tomic is as likely to win the tournament as Lleyton. They should both be about 80:1 at this point in time. If Federer somehow gets knocked out by Davydenko, Tomic beats him and wins a semi against Delpo (who beat Murray for Tomic's luck), then wins final against Djokovic. That's the only way Tomic can win this tournament, and even then it's almost impossible. In 2 years it might be a different story.

I realistically cant see anyone outside the top 9 being capable of winning this tournament, and in saying that it is really between the top 3. Delpo could catch fire, but would need to go Murray-Federer-Djokovic (good luck with that). I just dont see any massive upsets, the quarter finals will all be top 16 seeds imo, possibly top 8.

The one thing which could shake up the draw is if Berdych defeats Djokovic in the QF. Then it's wide open imo.
 
Yeah I can't see Tomic beating Federer unless Federer plays very badly. Tomic's game IMO matches up a little better to Djokovic than Federer or Murray.

But that was a great result for Tomic. No reason he shouldn't be getting into the top 20 this year. Top 10 is possible but I would probably bet against it.
 
Top 16 seed is basically top 20 rankings. I think that's a pretty reasonable goal for someone who aspires to winning multiple slams.

Winning his first title at this age is good, but he's still behind the eight-ball development-wise. Don't forget, Djokovic won his first slam at Tomic's age. Even Federer, who was a rather late bloomer, had made several finals by this point.

If he makes a couple more finals this year and wins matches at the Slams, he'll be top 20 by year end.
 
Caesar said:
Top 16 seed is basically top 20 rankings. I think that's a pretty reasonable goal for someone who aspires to winning multiple slams.

Winning his first title at this age is good, but he's still behind the eight-ball development-wise. Don't forget, Djokovic won his first slam at Tomic's age. Even Federer, who was a rather late bloomer, had made several finals by this point.

If he makes a couple more finals this year and wins matches at the Slams, he'll be top 20 by year end.
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This is crazy. He's the youngest player in the top 100 and you think he's behind the eight-ball? We can't expect him to become the next Djokovic or Federer. Let's just be thankful he's now working hard to be the best he can be.
 

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Plenty of players have been the youngest in the top 100 and never amounted to anything. Development is measured by personal progression, not comparison to others.

Tomic's at the age where he's finally starting to reach full physical maturity, and has plenty of professional experience under his belt. There should be a commensurate improvement in his play. If he finishes the year in no better a position than he was in at the end of 2011 then he would and should be disappointed with himself.
 
Roobs321 said:
...I just dont see any massive upsets, the quarter finals will all be top 16 seeds imo, possibly top 8...
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In theory, I agree. But doesn't always occur.

That's why I love sport. So many variables.
 
Caesar said:
Top 16 seed is basically top 20 rankings. I think that's a pretty reasonable goal for someone who aspires to winning multiple slams.

Winning his first title at this age is good, but he's still behind the eight-ball development-wise. Don't forget, Djokovic won his first slam at Tomic's age. Even Federer, who was a rather late bloomer, had made several finals by this point.

If he makes a couple more finals this year and wins matches at the Slams, he'll be top 20 by year end.
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Geez, youre comparing him to arguably the GOAT and someone who will most likely win 10 or so slams. Why not compare to Murray?
 
Roobs321 said:
Tomic needs to get past Federer before he is even on the radar as a tournament winner. I'd have him maybe in the top 16 or so favourites, but there are atleast 10-12 much better chances at this time. Ferrer & Delpo should be 4th/5th favourite, they are most likely to make the semis outside the top 3, and from there anything can happen.
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Delpo is 4th fave, Tomic 5th.

Ferrer would need the biggest Bradbury to win the Aus, any of the big 3 standing and he has no chance as evidenced by past history. Ferrer is not getting any better, the younger guys could jump out however unlikely it is, if you are the bookie that's what you have to take into consideration. If you look at the premiership odds for next year Essendon are $17 and Kangaroos $34. On last year's form that is the wrong way around, yet Essendon have a much better shot (albeit slim) of jumping up and going on to win the flag next year. Of course there is more public money for Essendon/Tomic than the equivalents but if I was the book I would have left Bernie at 50-1 and swept up the cash from anyone that wants to jump on, I'm just looking at it from an over cautious bookmaking risk management perspective where they are keeping the x factor safe.
 
Caesar said:
If he finishes the year in no better a position than he was in at the end of 2011 then he would and should be disappointed with himself.
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Pretty reasonable goal considering he finished the year around 41-42 in 2011-2012 and he's there now (although he should drop a little bit after AO). Think top 25 would be the goal this season.
 
Lyyynnnchy said:
Geez, youre comparing him to arguably the GOAT and someone who will most likely win 10 or so slams. Why not compare to Murray?
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Okay. When he was Tomic's age Murray was top 10 and had 3 titles from 7 finals. By 21 he had 8 titles from 13 finals, including two Masters 1000s, and was runner-up at the USO.

I'm not saying Tomic needs to be beating these guys' records, I'm just saying that most players' development curves are on a pretty steep increase at this age. Tomic has pretty much stagnated for the last 18 months, which is a long time in tennis and doubly so at this point in his career. It's not like I expect him to start winning slams overnight, but if he's going to live up to his much-touted potential then in the next 12 months you would expect to see him regularly picking up silverware and firmly entrenching himself in at least the top 30, if not higher.
 

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