2013 how do we improve ?

[Winners Only]

If you review the games we lost last year and generally there were three things that occurred -

1. The opposition tall forwards dominated us;
2. The opposition small forwards got away and kicked too many; or
3. The opposition ruckman dominated the game.

The other issues the club will need to address is how to pick up the ‘team defence’ and how to fill the roles Goddard and Gram played in defence?

The club made recruiting another ruckman a priority and attempted to recruit a ready to go key position backmen. Having said that we will need a marked improvement from McEvoy in hit outs to advantage, which hopefully Hickey will also improve.

It would appear that Watters intends to play Stanley as a tall defender. The fate of our defence shutting down the opposition tall forwards will largely depend on his success and the improvement of Simpkin. Simpkin still has a way to go but his development will be important as we will need Fisher to play his defensive roving - chop out role.

Replacing Goddard and Gram will not be easy as some might suggest. Goddard played a great steadying role across the back line and was dangerous when running through the centre. It looks like Siposs is being groomed to fill that role, but in the short term Gwilt will be released to do the job.

Geary improved last year but a number of small forwards got away and kicked a lot more than they should have. To assist him it looks like Ledger is being groomed to fill the role, this appears to be a great move by the coaches. Ledger needs game time and this is the perfect position to use his talents and develop him at the same time. He could provide the run from behind that Gram did on occasions. It has been mentioned before but I believe it is a role Schneider would also excel at !

In the main our ‘team defence’ seemed to put under the most pressure by the oppositions ability to win clearances far too readily. We need our ruckman to become more competitive and introduce more mobility through the midfield! Lets hope Newnes and Ross can have break out years. Geary uses his run through the middle, TDL, Dunell, Gilbert and Schneider gives us some run across the wings and Jones can return to his confident aggressive self - we can expect the improvement required to take us back into finals contention.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Yeah, fair analysis, WO, although I'm not sure about Ledger in that role. He seems better suited to being in the guts, helping win clearances.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

Good thread, good analysis.

I saw our main areas of improvement needed as:

- Contested ball

We are at or near the bottom of the table for contested ball. Part of this comes back to our rock stocks in 2013, both through injury and McEvoy not having a great year An injury free year plus Hickey will hopefully solve the ruck area.

Introduction of Ledger, Ross and Newnes in rotation are hopefully an answer to greater ball winning and clearance.

- Opposition key forwards

Didn't pick anyone ready made up in the draft. Simpkin isn't up to this yet, if he ever is, but will be a great back with the second or third forward. It will be fascinating to see how Stanley goes if he is to be our new power back. He has the size, speed and reach, but needs an injury free year to grow into this role. Plan B, don't know that we have a plan B, except moving Fisher to full back.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Yeah, and if we think of those three areas mentioned - defence (big and small) and clearances - actually clearances represents about 70% of the problem. If we win clearances, the ball gets down to the opposition forwards significantly less, and thus the problems associated with our defence are further minimised. It is utterly imperative that clearances improve - otherwise we are well and truly stuffed.

Clearances rely on three players: 1 ruck taps to, 2 inside mids pass out to, 3 outside mids. We've been falling down somewhat on all three, but that seems to be something that has been looked at very closely. Honestly, if the rucks improve with Hickey, etc, and some of the young insiders like Ledger, Ross and Newnes can help in the guts, things will improve immensely.

Couple that with what looks like a really strong forward line this year, and winning clearances will mean that the headache we had last year with opposition forwards, will become the headache WE give to our opposition!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I'm not totally convinced.
1. Not all oppositon tall forwards dominated us. But the ones that did read like a who's who of big tall mother's. Franklin, Cox, Riewoldt, Tippett, Petrie, Hawkins. I can't really can't see Stanley being sucessful against all of that lot. Franklin ( also Goodes ) , needs a different sort of defender to run with him, than you'd ideally have on Hawkins. Riewoldt isn't that tall, but he has plenty of smarts. If you could stop those guys with just any tall dude you found in the VFL they wouldn't be the big names that they are.
Injuries weren't kind to us either. With McEvoy( Blake ), Fisher, and Gwilt all missing games and destablising the back line.

Even if nothing else changes, I see improvment from having a fit Fisher and Gwilt, with Roberton and Blake available. I'll also be a bit surprised if there isn't some improvement in Simpkin.

2. We lost a terrific tagger in Baker. Meanwhile many consider Jones to be a liability in the midfield. Jetta would be a hard ask for anyone, but I think Jones ( who is training the house down and all that ) could do a great job on the likes of Rioli, Betts, Thomas etc.

3. Interestingly when we lost the hitouts we didn't always lose the clearances, which sort of makes you think maybe McEvoy does enough to even things up.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Fair call SS regarding Stanley. I'm certainly not holding high hopes for him - if he gives it a go, I'll be happy, but I doubt he'll REALLY be a superback. What he DOES have in his favour is pace (which can help with Buddy), height (which can help with the BIG talls), and leap and flair (which can help with likes of Jack). His problems - and they are weighty problems - are his lack of both strength and experience.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Regarding the midfield, of our Zeb-watchers (@zebraman, stkildathunda, Squizzy1970, HoldenMCaulfield), who do you think are really going to help with the inside mid stuff? Could the reason Curren has been put in the young leadership group be because he'll be elevated to help in this critical area?

 

[hayes]

Contested ball/clearances and opposition tall forwards are obvious ones, but I'll throw up kicking as a major problem as well. Bringing in Siposs, Dunell, Newnes, Milera is a massive step in the right direction though.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Contested ball/clearances and opposition tall forwards are obvious ones, but I'll throw up kicking as a major problem as well. Bringing in Siposs, Dunell, Newnes, Milera is a massive step in the right direction though.

Having Schneids available for the whole season won't hurt either.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The other issues the club will need to address is how to pick up the ‘team defence’ and how to fill the roles Goddard and Gram played in defence?

Replacing Goddard and Gram will not be easy as some might suggest. Goddard played a great steadying role across the back line and was dangerous when running through the centre.

In the last 3/4 of 2011 Goddard played that role in defence (our back 6 last season was generally Fisher, Dempster, Simpkin, Gwilt/Blake, Geary and Gram, with Gilbert the one in there the next most (especially when Fisher was out), with the likes of Newnes (7 games), Polo, Raph and in the last couple of games Siposs, also playing there most of the time they played seniors), but last season Brendon very rarely lined up in the backline, so the only one we definitely need to replace there is Gram and it looks likely that Siposs is going to be the one to take that spot, albeit in probably a different manner (Dempster may go back to playing more of a shut-down role (on "smalls"/"mediums") like he did in 2011, to replace Gram, who did a lot of that in the last two years, with Siposs playing more of the floating/intercept marking role across HB that Dempster played last season). If Geary moves into the midfield then he will also need to be replaced back there, though and that may come from someone like Ledger, Newnes, or even Roberton.

As I noticed when watching the games live, BJ was back to playing the mainly midfield roles (wing mostly, but also in the guts at times, especially later in the season) that he played in 2009/2010, from as early as R2 (think he might have played down back a fair bit in R1) last season and very rarely lined up back of centre for the whole season after R1. In fact he lined up forward of centre significantly more throughout the season than he did back of centre, which he confirmed himself in this article after being traded to Essendon: "I made it pretty clear that one of the benefits was a permanent spot in the midfield because last year I played about 90 percent of my football as a half forward so that was something that appealed to me a lot." http://www.sportal.com.au/afl-news-display/goddard-downplays-st-kilda-acrimony-213120

Now obviously that is a big exaggeration, as we all know that he didn't play across HF for 90% of the season (although he did finish the season there, so that may have been fresh in his mind when he said that), but when taking note of where he played when watching the replays (see below) he did line up forward of centre a lot more than even I noticed when watching the games live. Pretty much the only times he was put back into defence was when we were in real trouble back there and even some times when we were he wasn't even moved back there. He did get plenty of his kicks back of centre, as many "mids" do, probably out of habit, but he hardly ever lined up there throughout the season.

Many argued this with me at the end of the season, so I started taking taking note of where he lined up at each centre bounce when I was watching the replays of our games on Foxtel since the end of the season (they have just been replaying every game of the season back to back, 24 hours a day, since the season ended, so they've gone through the whole season multiple times already) and for the periods of the 13 games I've taken note of so far, he lined up on the wing at 66 centre bounces, in the guts at 56, forward of centre at 42 (a lot more than I thought it would be, although often he was just coming off the front edge of the square (around CHF) to try and break a tag and would then usually just follow the ball around the ground from there, essentially playing as a "mid") and back of centre at just 13.

For the remainder of those games I have no reason to suspect that it was any different, except for the Hawthorn one, when we were badly undermanned down back in the 2nd half (after Fisher was subbed off) and he was eventually moved back there to help out. What I saw when watching the replays of our games confirmed what I noticed when watching the games live and that was that he very rarely lined up in the backline all year and that he spent the great majority of the season playing in a midfield role of some sort (mostly wing early and then mostly in the guts in those do-or die games near the end, against WB, Coll, Geel) and then finished off the season up forward (after Roo went down). And none of those 13 games (he played 20 for the year) that I've taken note of so far include any of his games in the last 4 rounds against Melbourne, GWS and Carlton, which he spent almost all of in the forward line and aren't worth noting specifically, as I doubt he lined up down back at any time in any of those 3 games. Anyone that has Fox Footy can easily confirm any of this and I would estimate with extreme confidence that he lined up back of centre at less than 10% of the centre bounces that he was on the ground for for the season.

So we need to replace Gram down back (most likely with Siposs, with Roberton, Newnes and maybe even Wright as some of the other options for that last spot) and Goddard on the wing, in the guts and across HF, mostly. Options for the wing (or running off the front (CHF area) of the square and then essentially playing midfield and following the ball around the ground) include Ray playing more, Dunell, Siposs, Milera, Schneider, Newnes and I also expect that Gilbo may spend more time there than he did in 2012 (when he played there a lot early and intermittently at other times). Options to play more in the guts include Ledger, Ross and maybe CJ comes back in, or Curren and we have options galore for the forward line (Siposs again, Dunell, Lee, Milera, Murdoch, Schneider).

I definitely agree that we need to tighten up our "team defence" though and something else that cost us very badly in some of our closest losses was our dreadful kicking for goal. 1 goal 8 in the 3rd quarter of our 8 point loss to Richmond, 1 goal 6 in the 3rd quarter of our 12 point loss to Freo, 1 goal 6 till about the 25 min mark of the last quarter of our close loss to Sydney at the SCG (when we were within 4 points inside the last 4 mins) are just 3 off the top of my head. There were plenty more terrible conversion quarters like that though, more often than not in the 3rd quarters. We also very much need to improve the kicking into the forward line (and around the ground) and that is something that the team will have been working hard on since the middle or so of last season, but that Watters said last season would "take time" to improve (Gilbo for one improved noticeably as the year went on, after a terrible start, kicking-wise).

We also need to get our "killer instinct" back, but having read that article about Joey yesterday, it seems that that might just be on the agenda, which is brilliant news.

 

[Falchoon]

Fair call SS regarding Stanley. I'm certainly not holding high hopes for him - if he gives it a go, I'll be happy, but I doubt he'll REALLY be a superback. What he DOES have in his favour is pace (which can help with Buddy), height (which can help with the BIG talls), and leap and flair (which can help with likes of Jack). His problems - and they are weighty problems - are his lack of both strength and experience.

Turning circle

He's quick but he's a long strider.

 

[stkildathunda]

Regarding the midfield, of our Zeb-watchers (@zebraman, stkildathunda, Squizzy1970, HoldenMCaulfield), who do you think are really going to help with the inside mid stuff? Could the reason Curren has been put in the young leadership group be because he'll be elevated to help in this critical area?

Tommy Ledger is the obvious, as is Adam Cockie. Oh hang on he's not on our list

Ledger is an out and out bulldog, he thrives on the contested possession. He's obvious player for mine that will replace Hayes in that position. Im not sure Curren is exactly what we are after in that particular area, but guess it all depends on peoples idea of "inside mid".

I dont really know if we have anyone else on our list that really fits that critera (last year im talking about). Its probably why we recruited likes of Murdoch, Saunders

EDIT: I reckon Curren is in that group for way he goes about his training and preperation. The bloke is fitness freak and he is giving himself every chance of long and successful career. He's basically first to arrive at training every day and last to leave. Even when they finish over christmas they say he is at club 2-3 days a week training!

 

[aussierulesrules]

It will be fascinating to see how Stanley goes if he is to be our new power back. He has the size, speed and reach, but needs an injury free year to grow into this role. Plan B, don't know that we have a plan B, except moving Fisher to full back.

I doubt we'd be planning on him being our "power back". I think the idea may be more to just have him in the area, like Dustin Fletcher is now at Essendon, so that he can peel off whoever he is playing on (as long as the ball isn't kicked to him) and go 3rd up and we can benefit from his height, leap and reach when the high balls come in. It would be a bit like when Mac or Kosi are playing in the ruck and they drop down back to help out for when the high balls come in, but in Rhys' case he would be in that area pretty much the whole time, not just when he has the time to get down there from the ruck. His long kicking and ability to run like the wind when we have the ball could also be assets back there. It will be fascinating to see how it goes, though.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Where would Curren's skill level reside? It seems like he's putting everything into it. But is he your 'average Joe with average skills who will forge a pretty decent career with not much' aka Jonesy and Blake. Or could his incredible work ethic allow him to achieve much higher?

He's won a B&F, trains like a mad man and been put into the young leadership group. It's a pretty decent resume so far for a 21 year old rookie who hasn't even played a game yet.

Will definitely be one to watch in 2013.

 

[stkildathunda]

Where would Curren's skill level reside? It seems like he's putting everything into it. But is he your 'average Joe with average skills who will forge a pretty decent career with not much' aka Jonesy and Blake. Or could his incredible work ethic allow him to achieve much higher?

He's won a B&F, trains like a mad man and been put into the young leadership group. It's a pretty decent resume so far for a 21 year old rookie who hasn't even played a game yet.

Will definitely be one to watch in 2013.

Personally i reckon you've hit nail on head. He'll be a Jones/Blake/Baker that his work ethic allows him to achieve more. He's going to have a good career though. I reckon for him take next step he needs to play that Jarryn Geary role from last year on small forwards. Which in turn will free Gears up.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The club must have rated him above Magner, who is probably not close to the worst player at Melbourne. So thats a start I guess.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I would imagine that he is slightly behind both Ledger and Ross in the pecking order for a spot in the midfield ATM and that long-term someone like Wright would be better suited to a back pocket or back flank. Just have a feeling that he might be someone that is very, very good at VFL level, but just lacking any elite/outstanding attributes (except for his attitude/work ethic, by the sounds of it) to be able to really make it at AFL level. Hope that's not the case though.

Being "smallish" height-wise, when we already have Joey, Steven and potentially Ledger (and longer term maybe Saunders and Minchington) around the same size, at a time when AFL midfields are getting bigger and stronger, may also count against him, as we probably wouldn't want to have a midfield with 3-4 who are 180cm or shorter, when some other teams have 2-3 in their midfield who are closer to 190cm or more, unless those we have are really exceptional.

 

[hayes]

I think it's underselling Curren a bit to say he's just going to be a workhorse. He definitely has talent that he combines with an incredible work ethic.

I've said this before but he and Ledger look like pretty similiar players to me. I haven't seen any issues with Curren's disposal but IIRC Squizzy has mentioned in the past he's had issues when he switches the ball. Kicks goals too, but it's hard to say anything definitive without seeing him at AFL level first though. He's been every bit as good as Ledger if not better, I see no reason why he can't be a quality AFL player.

EDIT: There are question marks about Ledger though so not sure how much that counts for.

 

[Defacto]

Personally i reckon you've hit nail on head. He'll be a Jones/Blake/Baker that his work ethic allows him to achieve more. He's going to have a good career though. I reckon for him take next step he needs to play that Jarryn Geary role from last year on small forwards. Which in turn will free Gears up.

baker proved you dont have to be the most skillfull player to be a very valuable BP/tagger. as long as curren goes in and stops his opponent kicking any goals or assisting in any. it'd be a massive win. thats 1/6 of the job done when it comes to defence.

he's ahead of ledger for me. mainly because of the limited vision i have seen of ledger, he just seems to make terrible decisions and doesnt seem to be able to cover as much ground as curren.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

I doubt we'd be planning on him being our "power back". I think the idea may be more to just have him in the area, like Dustin Fletcher is now at Essendon, so that he can peel off whoever he is playing on (as long as the ball isn't kicked to him) and go 3rd up and we can benefit from his height, leap and reach when the high balls come in. It would be a bit like when Mac or Kosi are playing in the ruck and they drop down back to help out for when the high balls come in, but in Rhys' case he would be in that area pretty much the whole time, not just when he has the time to get down there from the ruck. His long kicking and ability to run like the wind when we have the ball could also be assets back there. It will be fascinating to see how it goes, though.

That makes much more sense. Thanks

 

[Persevering Saint]

Yeah, fact is I like and respect Curren more than Ledger. Curren seems to have more grit, determination. That's just based on reports, etc, but hey.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah, fact is I like and respect Curren more than Ledger. Curren seems to have more grit, determination. That's just based on reports, etc, but hey.

Yeah, that could be true. Hopefully Ledge knuckles down now that he realises that he has to really fight for a spot and that it's not going to be just gifted to him, if that was in fact an issue in the past. If one of them makes it we'll be doing well, considering where we got them both from.

 

[mysainters]

Start how we finished?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Play like we did in 2009, except win the flag this time .

 

[aussierulesrules]

Play like we did in 2009, except win the flag this time .

That's not such a silly suggestion. No-one would have predicted us winning 19 in a row that year, or going from bottom of the ladder (or near enough to it), with a % of 74, after R5, in 1997, to making that GF on the back of 9 straight wins, but so much of it was about attitude and commitment to the cause and the maniacal attack on the ball or man (at least in 2009) that Joey spoke of in that article by Robbo on the weekend and if we get that mindset, self-belief, momentum and mojo back, then we can go a long way this year as well.

Our performances against the teams that made the prelims last season and the fact that we were only 4 very close losses away from finishing top 4 ourselves proved that we weren't that far away last year, despite never really getting on a winning roll, so it's not that big of a gap to bridge, if we believe we can do it.