2015 Ladder predictions

[Dockernut]

It's shaping as a pretty difficult season to predict this year, so I have dug up this amazing blog with lots of stats and maths talk and shit. Anyway, gives you a real insight into how the draw can impact a team's ultimate ladder position:

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...2015-afl-draw-schedule-strength-and-imbalance

Thought some might find it interesting.

 

[pavsbootlace]

Interesting article. Here's my prediction.

Hawthorn
Sydney
North
Gold Coast

Fremantle
Port
Geelong
Richmond

Essendon
Adelaide
Brisbane
West Coast
GWS
Collingwood
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
StKilda
Melbourne

 

[WCErevival]

That's some serious analysis in that link. Obviously doesnt take into account list changes and injuries but still looks decent. Will be interesting to see how close it gets to the mark.

 

[Simmofreo]

Interesting article. Here's my prediction.

Hawthorn
Sydney
North
Gold Coast

Fremantle
Port
Geelong
Richmond

Essendon
Adelaide
Brisbane
West Coast
GWS
Collingwood
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
StKilda
Melbourne

Has GC above us. Throw it in the bin

 

[purplerunsdeep]

I unfortunately think we will finish inside the 6... Such an even year looking ahead. Past years clubs like Tigers have a comical losing streaks, North choke against lesser sides and the new clubs are more of a known this year then years past.

We need to be seriously on for the good part of the year - have a great run with injuries and win everything at home

 

[pavsbootlace]

Has GC above us. Throw it in the bin

GC will surprise a few people this year.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

GC will surprise a few people this year.

I will be very surprised if they finish top six.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Interesting article. Here's my prediction.

Hawthorn
Sydney
North
Gold Coast

Fremantle
Port
Geelong
Richmond

Essendon
Adelaide
Brisbane
West Coast
GWS
Collingwood
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
StKilda
Melbourne

Port not in the 4?

 

[greatgatsby]

This is a serious piece of research! It has my respect.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Sydney
Fremantle
Hawthorn
North
Adelaide
Port
Geelong

A few clubs contending for eighth including wc, Richmond, Gold Coast.

 

[free at last]

Hawthorn
Fremantle
Power
Swans
Norf
GC
Rich
Crows

Cats
Brissy
Pies
GWS
Carl
WC
WB
MEL
Stk
ESS

 

[Borry]

Sydney, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide are the top three teams in the comp IMO. I expect Geelong, North and us to make the finals again with the final two spots to be taken by two of Richmond, Essendon, Gold Coast, West Coast or Adelaide.

I think we will be in the top six.

 

[TonyC]

It's shaping as a pretty difficult season to predict this year, so I have dug up this amazing blog with lots of stats and maths talk and shit. Anyway, gives you a real insight into how the draw can impact a team's ultimate ladder position:

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...2015-afl-draw-schedule-strength-and-imbalance

Thought some might find it interesting.

Ta for the link. Happy to answer any quessies about the "maths talk and shit"; that's kinda what I do for a living.

Today's post on the site explaining a bit more about the tips, predictions and wagers on the site might help a bit (see http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-w...to-matterofstats-predictions-and-team-ratings).

Always happy to answer questions, respond to emails or reply to comments.

 

[TonyC]

This is a serious piece of research! It has my respect.

Ta GreatGatsby. I reckon you might enjoy this post, if not only for the final quote: http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...lassifier-for-predicting-line-betting-results

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Y

Ta for the link. Happy to answer any quessies about the "maths talk and shit"; that's kinda what I do for a living.

Today's post on the site explaining a bit more about the tips, predictions and wagers on the site might help a bit (see http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-w...to-matterofstats-predictions-and-team-ratings).

Always happy to answer questions, respond to emails or reply to comments.

Your reply to a comment regarding 6 day breaks possibly being an advantage or less of a disadvantage than popular perception, surely can't be true for interstate teams travelling with a short break.

 

[gaskin]

Hawthorn
Sydney
Freo
Port
North
Gold Coast
Richmond
Adelaide

Essendon
Geelong
Brisbane
Eagles
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Carlton
Melbourne
GWS
Saints

Personally I don't think Port are as good as everyone makes them out to be but I can't really see anyone else around 5-8 making the jump. North on their day can be as good as anyone but I don't really rate their forward line enough to jump up above us or Port.

I don't think the Eagles will improve but being massive flat track bullies they'll get at least a comfortable 9 wins or so. Bulldogs I can see being big improvers this season while I think Collingwood will stay rather mediocre.

 

[Unique Name]

Hawks
Freo
Sydney
Port
Geelong
North
Adelaide
Gold Coast

Richmond
West Coast
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Collingwood
GWS
Carlton
Melborne
Saints
Essendon

 

[pavsbootlace]

Port not in the 4?

Controversial, I know. I just feel like their blessed run with injury flattered them last year - both their lack of injuries and they also seemed to meet teams at the right time (eg. their win over Hawthorn came when Hawthorn had their longest injury list of the year). When they did have a couple of injuries, they lost 6 out of 7 games. They've only won one of their last 5 games against last year's top 6. I don't doubt they're a good side, just not at the same level as the top 2, about the same level as us.

IMO, Hawthorn are miles ahead of the pack. Then Sydney. Then 7 other teams. Then the rest.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Controversial, I know. I just feel like their blessed run with injury flattered them last year - both their lack of injuries and they also seemed to meet teams at the right time (eg. their win over Hawthorn came when Hawthorn had their longest injury list of the year). When they did have a couple of injuries, they lost 6 out of 7 games. They've only won one of their last 5 games against last year's top 6. I don't doubt they're a good side, just not at the same level as the top 2, about the same level as us.

IMO, Hawthorn are miles ahead of the pack. Then Sydney. Then 7 other teams. Then the rest.

Fair enough mate you do a persuasive argument for your response.

 

[calaisking]

Freo
Hawthorn
Sydney
Port
Geelong
North
Gold Coast
Adelaide

______________________

Biased view, but I think we'll be pushing for a flag this year

 

[_007_]

Hawthorn
Sydney

North
Port
Freo

Geelong
Adelaide
Richmond
Gold Coast

West Coast
Brisbane
Collingwood

GWS
Carlton
Bulldogs

Melbourne
Saints
Essendon

 

[greatgatsby]

Ta GreatGatsby. I reckon you might enjoy this post, if not only for the final quote: http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...lassifier-for-predicting-line-betting-results

Cheers: "...simple methods typically yield performance almost as good as more sophisticated methods ..."

 

[Seppo]

Nothing will beat the predictive power of The Squiggle.
http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/

That has us in top 4, thats good enough for me.

 

[sansian]

Nothing will beat the predictive power of The Squiggle.
http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/

That has us in top 4, thats good enough for me.

All hail the squiggle!

 

[TonyC]

Y


Your reply to a comment regarding 6 day breaks possibly being an advantage or less of a disadvantage than popular perception, surely can't be true for interstate teams travelling with a short break.

That's an interesting question. The evidence seems to be that it's the travel itself far more than the days' rest before it that matters (though, to be fair, I've not tested to see if the two have a compounding effect.)