2016 AFL - Finals Week 3

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$1.65|$1.60|$1.66|$1.62|$1.65|$1.67
\Sydney|$2.30|$2.38|$2.39|$2.35|$2.25|$2.25
\|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:7.5|line:6.5
\total score:|***.5|173.5|176.5|173.5|165.5|171.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.45|$1.47|$1.48|$1.45|$1.52|$1.48
\West.Bulldogs |$2.85|$2.65|$2.86|$2.85|$2.55|$2.65
\|line:14.5|line:12.5|line:13.5|line:14.5|line:12.5|line:13.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|165.5|168.5|166.5|168.5

ODDS AT 12.45 ON 18/09/16

 

[TheScream]

GWS - premiers at $3. Call me biased but easily the best side of the four imo

 

[chrisdon16]

Selections for prelims:
Geelong/Sydney-U173.5;Geelong-U90.5
GWS/Dogs-O167.5;GWS-O89.5

 

[fearmilk]

GWS only -12/13?? this implies they're equal to doggies on a neutral field. can't say i agree with that. GWS ~$1.50 at home seems solid

 

[Zevon]

Selections for prelims:
Geelong/Sydney-U173.5;Geelong-U90.5
GWS/Dogs-O167.5;GWS-O89.5

Liking all of these. And even allowing for any underlying bias on my part, Geelong U90.5 looks the best bet of the lot.

 

[Cuzz09]

Id love to see GWS V SYD GF.

Mainly coz Geelong shit me to tears and i think if dogs made the gf itd be a flogging against geel or syd.

Syd v gws would be huge

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[chrisdon16]

I'd like to see GWS/Geelong. It'll be such a fascinating game with Stevie j vs his old team mates in a GF

 

[X_box_X]

No match odds markets for this week's PF matches on Betfair. So strange.

 

[iluvparis]

No match odds markets for this week's PF matches on Betfair. So strange.

Might be due to the Australian wallet migration

 

[terminators]

Too many variables in the GWS/Dogs game to have a confident punt.

2 young sides, more Dogs fans than GWS at game, GWS 1 game in last 4 weeks

 

[TheScream]

Too many variables in the GWS/Dogs game to have a confident punt.

2 young sides, more Dogs fans than GWS at game, GWS 1 game in last 4 weeks

How do you figure that?

 

[X_box_X]

How do you figure that?

Logic.

 

[Spads]

Too many variables in the GWS/Dogs game to have a confident punt.

2 young sides, more Dogs fans than GWS at game, GWS 1 game in last 4 weeks

Or alternatively, GWS are a powerhouse who can match the bulldogs greatest strength (contested possessions and run), and who will stretch the bulldogs short defense.

I also think the bulldogs celebrated a little hard after last week's win. They might already be done.

 

[Zevon]

GWS are a powerhouse who can match the bulldogs greatest strength (contested possessions and run), and who will stretch the bulldogs short defense.

Tend to agree. The Bulldogs have been great the last couple of weeks but this just looks a bridge too far. I wasn't one of the people who underestimated the Doggies in week 1 or 2 of the finals (backed them to beat the Hawks in fact), but I did however underestimate the Giants when they played the Swans. Won't be making that mistake again.

I also don't think enough has been made of the fact that the Hawks were all but cooked by the time the Bulldogs got to them. So although the Doggies win over West Coast was very good, I'm not sure the win over the triple premiers was quite as strong as it looks.

Despite all the hype that this is a 50/50 game, I think the bookies are right to have the Giants around the $1.50 mark. They're not quite certainties, but they are a cut above and I would be amazed if they end up getting beaten on Saturday.

 

[Zevon]

more Dogs fans than GWS at game

How do you figure that?

Logic.

Pretty fanciful "logic" I'd say. Giants supporters will outnumber Dogs by at least 60/40. Would gladly put money on it.

 

[balmainforever]

NSW people are the biggest bunch of bandwagon supporters you will ever see. Crowd will be at least 2/3 giants.

 

[Spads]

Pretty fanciful "logic" I'd say. Giants supporters will outnumber Dogs by at least 60/40. Would gladly put money on it.

And more importantly, does it matter? If home ground advantage is worth 2 goals, what are we talking about here - a point or 2 reduction?

 

[iluvparis]

And more importantly, does it matter? If home ground advantage is worth 2 goals, what are we talking about here - a point or 2 reduction?

Is home ground advantage due to crowd or ground dimensions?

 

[Spads]

Is home ground advantage due to crowd or ground dimensions?

The research I've seen on why home ground advantage exists doesn't come to any compelling or clear conclusions.

It all contributes, but I think familiarity and comfort seem to be the biggest factors. Crowd and dimensions woukd be a lesser extent.

 

[Vhaluus]

I actually think the GWS vs Bulldogs game could get quite ugly. Getting on the Giants 40+

 

[Jammer]

I like swans straight out and at the line ...

I thought the swans v gaints game was
The highest quality game of the year ...
I'm of the opinion cats just beat a staggering hawthorn team and the market is over valuing that form.

Hawks last 5 matches have included
5 goal losses to Dee's, west coast , dogs
A fall in job v pies and one great qrt to v north .

Swans match up well.... ( thrashed cats in Geelong )
Don't think 1 game in a month will do Geelong any favours .... I actually think
Swans lead in might be better....

Swans $2.40 ladbrokes 1 unit
Swans + 7.5 line 1 unit

Premiers Geelong lay $3.25 betfair
1 unit

 

[Vhaluus]

I like swans straight out and at the line ...

I thought the swans v gaints game was
The highest quality game of the year ...
I'm of the opinion cats just beat a staggering hawthorn team and the market is over valuing that form.

Hawks last 5 matches have included
5 goal losses to Dee's, west coast , dogs
A fall in job v pies and one great qrt to v north .

Swans match up well.... ( thrashed cats in Geelong )
Don't think 1 game in a month will do Geelong any favours .... I actually think
Swans lead in might be better....

Swans $2.40 ladbrokes 1 unit
Swans + 7.5 line 1 unit

Premiers Geelong lay $3.25 betfair
1 unit

I would be all over Sydney but the injury clouds are keeping me away.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Dogs are drifting alarmingly. From $2.65 start of week now out to $3.15

 

[happy punter]

A lobster on the Swannies 40+ @ 13

 

[SM]

Our injuries won't impact us too much I don't think. Last time we faced the Cats off a 6-day break and them off a week off we knocked them off at Kardinia Park earlier this year.