2016 AFL - Round 6

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb.|$1.80|$1.81|$1.80|$1.80|$1.82|$1.80
\West.Bulldogs |$2.00|$1.95|$1.95|$2.00|$2.00|$2.02
\|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:*.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:3.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.55|$1.55|$1.59|$1.60|$1.56|$1.60
\St.Kilda |$2.45|$2.45|$2.30|$2.35|$2.45|$2.35
\|line:9.5|line:10.5|line:*.5|line:9.5|line:10.5|line:10.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Adelaide |$1.06|$1.08|$1.08|$1.08|$1.083|$1.07
\Fremantle |$9.50|$8.50|$7.00|$8.00|$8.00|$8.50
\|line:48.5|line:48.5|line:*.5|line:48.5|line:48.5|line:49.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$2.60|$2.50|$2.45|$2.45|$2.60|$2.65
\Hawthorn |$1.50|$1.53|$1.52|$1.55|$1.50|$1.48
\|line:12.5|line:12.5|line:*.5|line:11.5|line:12.5|line:12.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$1.11|$1.12|$1.12|$1.13|$1.14|$1.12
\Gold Coast|$6.75|$6.25|$5.80|$6.00|$5.75|$6.50
\|line:39.5|line:39.5|line:*.5|line:39.5|line:38.5|line:39.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond |$1.80|$1.81|$1.77|$1.80|$1.78|$1.80
\Port Adelaide |$2.00|$2.00|$2.00|$2.00|$2.05|$2.02
\|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:*.5|line:2.5|line:3.5|line:3.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Brisbane |$7.00|$6.50|$5.75|$6.00|$5.75|$6.50
\Sydney |$1.10|$1.11|$1.12|$1.13|$1.14|$1.12\|line:38.5|line:40.5|line:*.5|line:39.5|line:37.5|line:39.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton|$1.48|$1.38|$1.43|$1.40|$*.**|$1.38
\Essendon|$2.65|$3.05|$2.75|$2.90|$*.**|$3.05
\|line:*.5|line:20.5|line:*.5|line:20.5|line:*.5|line:20.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West Coast|$1.09|$1.08|$1.07|$1.12|$1.11|$1.07
\Collingwood|$7.50|$8.00|$7.50|$6.00|$6.50|$8.00
\|line:*.5|line:38.5|line:*.5|line:39.5|line:37.5|line:38.5

ODDS AT 12:15 ON 26/4/16

 

[freo_leo29]

Have melbourne broken that etihad drought yet?
Like the saints this week anyway, might back them early if the drought is still a thing as when the general public finds out the dees may drift.

Adelaide at the line is a great bet, they will flog us, fyfe will be out, ballas and johnno also a chance to miss, mundy is back but Ross said in the presser DeBoer, Mzungu, Blakely and Hughes played well in the wafl, if he decides to go for youth they are both only raw second gamers and if he backs in the older brigade then we are back to using spuds, don't see much improvement coming this week.

GWS to beat the hawks too, surely the umps won't get them out of this one, its an away game.

 

[Derzzy]

Have melbourne broken that etihad drought yet?
Like the saints this week anyway, might back them early if the drought is still a thing as when the general public finds out the dees may drift.

Adelaide at the line is a great bet, they will flog us, fyfe will be out, ballas and johnno also a chance to miss, mundy is back but Ross said in the presser DeBoer, Mzungu, Blakely and Hughes played well in the wafl, if he decides to go for youth they are both only raw second gamers and if he backs in the older brigade then we are back to using spuds, don't see much improvement coming this week.

GWS to beat the hawks too, surely the umps won't get them out of this one, its an away game.

Completely agree with you regards Adelaide V Freo. Adelaide are coming off game where they played very well away from home and really should have won. Crows are playing some great great footy in 2016 and will be looking to rebound in front of big home crowd. Their 2016 form is fast, professional and clinical in the forward line.

On the other hand you have freo, who look a shadow of their 2015 form. Just lost at home to Carlton......Carlton...... A team which is on the rebuild and essentially a team of under 24 year olds! The defensive lock-down ross lyon football style is clearly not working for them this year. Not really the player's fault (ageing players certainty don't help though), its the Freo strategy which is at fault. Its not going to work this year. All of the teams which are doing well in 2016 have fast rebounds through the middle and rely on a variety of goal scorers. This is everything that Freemantle isn't and wont be in 2016.

There is no way in hell Freo will win this one. Although Adelaide are only paying 1.10, 1.10 still seems massive overs to me. Should be more like 1.05. They should cover the line easily.

 

[freo_leo29]

Completely agree with you regards Adelaide V Freo. Adelaide are coming off game where they played very well away from home and really should have won. Crows are playing some great great footy in 2016 and will be looking to rebound in front of big home crowd. Their 2016 form is fast, professional and clinical in the forward line.

On the other hand you have freo, who look a shadow of their 2015 form. Just lost at home to Carlton......Carlton...... A team which is on the rebuild and essentially a team of under 24 year olds! The defensive lock-down ross lyon football style is clearly not working for them this year. Not really the player's fault (ageing players certainty don't help though), its the Freo strategy which is at fault. Its not going to work this year. All of the teams which are doing well in 2016 have fast rebounds through the middle and rely on a variety of goal scorers. This is everything that Freemantle isn't and wont be in 2016.

There is no way in hell Freo will win this one. Although Adelaide are only paying 1.10, 1.10 still seems massive overs to me. Should be more like 1.05. They should cover the line easily.

Agree with most of your analysis except the part where you bring up the defensive lockdown gameplan, the reason we are doing so bad is because we have completely ditched that gameplan and we are absolutely paying for it, we have gone with an elite kick out of the backline then run and gun through the middle except we don't have the elite kicks and are a super slow team, probably the slowest in the league and it shows, our spread gets covered easily and then we get carved up on the rebound.

Jenkins and Tex to both kick 5 this week, and eddie to have atleast 2 out the back easy goals off the back of a fremantle turnover. Book it.

 

[Derzzy]

Agree with most of your analysis except the part where you bring up the defensive lockdown gameplan, the reason we are doing so bad is because we have completely ditched that gameplan and we are absolutely paying for it, we have gone with an elite kick out of the backline then run and gun through the middle except we don't have the elite kicks and are a super slow team, probably the slowest in the league and it shows, our spread gets covered easily and then we get carved up on the rebound.

Jenkins and Tex to both kick 5 this week, and eddie to have atleast 2 out the back easy goals off the back of a fremantle turnover. Book it.

Yes i think your right. I would just add that i think Freo are still a little bit stuck between game styles, they've been drilled for so many years in this defensive style of play, and your right they've definitely changed components of it, but I don't think they've fully completed the change up just yet. Whenever they are under pressure you see the players revert into lapses of the old defensive game style like kicking to contests on the boundary, or going deep back to go forward.

But yeh like you said, they just simply don't look comfortable in adapting to the 2016 style of football. Ross is certainly going to have his work cut out for him this year.

And definitely agree with the eddie betts bet. he is great at the forward pressure.

 

[free at last]

Does anyone believe $11 for freo to have the least wins is great value?

 

[X_box_X]

Have melbourne broken that etihad drought yet?

Melbourne broke their drought when they beat the Giants at Etihad in the final game of the round in 2015.

 

[iluvparis]

Does anyone believe $11 for freo to have the least wins is great value?

Surely they will find a modicum of form at some stage - whereas us and the dopers will be perpetually shit this season

 

[free at last]

Surely they will find a modicum of form at some stage - whereas us and the dopers will be perpetually shit this season

We've got Adelaide,GWS & Hawthorn coming up,we ain't winning any of those.Fyfe likely to miss the remainder of the season too.
I reckon Lyon will test his entire list now which will result in guaranteed multiple losses IMO.

 

[balmainforever]

Surely they will find a modicum of form at some stage - whereas us and the dopers will be perpetually shit this season

Richmond at home in round 9 looks an absolute moral.
What price is Richmond most losses.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Think GWS, St.kilda and Essendon look value early on. The North/Dogs game will be a ripper flip a coin.

I know port are terrible .. But Cmon Richmond $1.79

 

[free at last]

Richmond at home in round 9 looks an absolute moral.
What price is Richmond most losses.

$13 at SB

Richmond will beat us in round 9.
The Tigers season will probably be on the line when they play us.

Seriously,we are a dumpster fire!

 

[balmainforever]

$13 at SB

Richmond will beat us in round 9.
The Tigers season will probably be on the line when they play us.

Seriously,we are a dumpster fire!

Richmond has power, Hawks, swans then freo. Realistically it could be 0-8 vs 1-7.

 

[Jugada]

North over 97.5

Norths forwards should maul the Dogs depleted defense

 

[Profphat]

Yes i think your right. I would just add that i think Freo are still a little bit stuck between game styles, they've been drilled for so many years in this defensive style of play, and your right they've definitely changed components of it, but I don't think they've fully completed the change up just yet. Whenever they are under pressure you see the players revert into lapses of the old defensive game style like kicking to contests on the boundary, or going deep back to go forward.

But yeh like you said, they just simply don't look comfortable in adapting to the 2016 style of football. Ross is certainly going to have his work cut out for him this year.

And definitely agree with the eddie betts bet. he is great at the forward pressure.

2 units Adelaide -42.5 at crownbet
Adelaide with the extra 2 day break as well.
Freo showed glimpses of their old game plan against the Eagles in the first half, but once Sandilands went down they've struggled. Adelaide are going to smash them everywhere.
Fyfe has flown to Melbourne for surgery. Ballantyne looks injured and Sandilands still out.

 

[Atavistic]

Richmond at home in round 9 looks an absolute moral.
What price is Richmond most losses.

Never underestimate your team's ability to make an elimination final from anywhere.

 

[free at last]

Richmond has power, Hawks, swans then freo. Realistically it could be 0-8 vs 1-7.

We've just lost jonno for 8-12 wks now....I reckon your mob will beat port at the G on Saturday.

 

[VineyLovett]

Run and gun on GWS boys. $2.50 and the start looks a decent bet. Hawks will run out of lives this week.

 

[VineyLovett]

Crows 1.07 on crown. Get on before it drops to 1.01. That's where it should and will be.

Crows by 100!

 

[free at last]

Crows 1.07 on crown. Get on before it drops to 1.01. That's where it should and will be.

Crows by 100!

Solid cold front expected to hit Adelaide some time Saturday.
Hopefully freo's line continues free fall to the +60's

 

[free at last]

Richmond at home in round 9 looks an absolute moral.
What price is Richmond most losses.

Freo already into $8 from $11 this morning,for least wins in 2016.

 

[Puntingman]

Really like the dogs

 

[vdub]

I could drop 3000 on Adelaide and only get 240 bucks at 1.08 so getting on it...... it's already half what it started at, that boats sailed.

I got on at 1.25 and 1.13.

Gunna have to hit the lines, maybe it will be be first (?) 100 plus point win of the year?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Dont know what gives us the right to be $1.55 fav vs Saints at Etihad. Since we are running with it, Saints are all sorts of "overs" @ $2.50.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Like GWS @ $2.65 +12.5 as an early bet too.