2016 Forwards

[JustInsideFifty]

I wonder what Wells ceiling will be this year?
I think the majority are expecting an 80-90 average out of him at best, but its possible he may score a bit better than that.
North have improved in all areas since he was injured and outside players are really dependant on supply from contested players, of which North has plenty.
I wouldnt be at all surprised if he puts out some big scores playing weaker teams, and he may end up a keeper as a loophole option later in the season (a la cripps last year).
I dont expect half of that to happen but he has such a huge upside for 250k.

I think 80-90 average is probably about right, closer to 90 imo. Should be good for 150 - 200k profit if he doesn't break down. (big if)
I think there is also a chance that at some stage he could string together 2 or 3 120+ games and push his price over 500k temporarily.
High risk stepping stone type pick, but seems less risky than many of the other cheap options in the forwards to me.

 

[Krujan]

I think 80-90 average is probably about right, closer to 90 imo. Should be good for 150 - 200k profit if he doesn't break down. (big if)
I think there is also a chance that at some stage he could string together 2 or 3 120+ games and push his price over 500k temporarily.
High risk stepping stone type pick, but seems less risky than many of the other cheap options in the forwards to me.

240k is minimal risk for a probable 80-90+ average. If he can put together 8-10 games at that average he would have done his job.

 

[clogwearer]

This point is flawed. Sure we all want ~$120k rookies that will play 10 games in a row and score decently, but we don't get enough them. We are forced to pay more for high price cash cows. I will happily pay $250k for Wells knowing he can score decently with a good chance he'll make it to $400k, than somebody like Adams who might play round 1, but then get dropped for Collins in round 2.

I think this, mostly. I like Adams for Def/Fwd with Brown, and in my mind this makes him a bit more relevant even if he's not getting a game every week. However that thinking only begins because we're not sure how many cheap rookies we're going to have available.

What there is no point in doing, is filling your bench spots with guys who won't play, just to get more money on the field at the start.

I've tried hard to stay away from Wells, but he keeps creeping into my calculations, and is sitting at F4 for the moment. He might become De Goey yet, but when I look below his price, I see guys like Nakia who I'm not sold on (but is probably my favourite of the cheaper high-priced rookie options), Menadue who Tigers fans say is only borderline best 22, and Duggan who I was bullish on early but have gone cold on since.
Don't get me started on the Dons top-ups and rookies. Maybe Simpkin, but do I save 20k and lose 20ppg? Grimley looks like a disaster waiting to strike. Pickings are slim. I've got ****ing Kommer in my team ffs!

 

[stevebbb]

I think this, mostly. I like Adams for Def/Fwd with Brown, and in my mind this makes him a bit more relevant even if he's not getting a game every week. However that thinking only begins because we're not sure how many cheap rookies we're going to have available.

What there is no point in doing, is filling your bench spots with guys who won't play, just to get more money on the field at the start.

I've tried hard to stay away from Wells, but he keeps creeping into my calculations, and is sitting at F4 for the moment. He might become De Goey yet, but when I look below his price, I see guys like Nakia who I'm not sold on (but is probably my favourite of the cheaper high-priced rookie options), Menadue who Tigers fans say is only borderline best 22, and Duggan who I was bullish on early but have gone cold on since.
Don't get me started on the Dons top-ups and rookies. Maybe Simpkin, but do I save 20k and lose 20ppg? Grimley looks like a disaster waiting to strike. Pickings are slim. I've got ******* Kommer in my team ffs!

Yeah rookies are providing a big headache.
We desperately need a few to stand out at training over the next few weeks, and of course the last NAB round.

I currently have Wells, BenKen and Cockatoo at M4, M5 and M6. I moved Kerridge to the mids due to the major lack of midfield cheapies.

#prayforrookies

 

[big bootaaaaah]

I think there is also a chance that at some stage he could string together 2 or 3 120+ games and push his price over 500k temporarily.
High risk stepping stone type pick, but seems less risky than many of the other cheap options in the forwards to me.

There's more chance he'll string 3 60- games together and lose his money

 

[JustInsideFifty]

There's more chance he'll string 3 60- games together and lose his money

Yes that's quite possible too, but North's start to the year looks pretty good (good for a guy who seems something of a flat-track bully) - they only play Freo, Crows and Dogs out of last years finalists in first 9 rounds and all of those are at home. They also have Dons and Blues back to back in rounds 8 and 9... Yes he is a risk, but don't see him losing cash even in the worst case he starts with 60, 60, 10 (and injured) he will stay about the same price and cost 1 trade (the risk). I think other popular picks like Anderson, Simpkin etc are much more of a risk to come out and score 60s, where I think the main risk with Wells is injury.

 

[Souup]

I wonder what Wells ceiling will be this year?
I think the majority are expecting an 80-90 average out of him at best, but its possible he may score a bit better than that.
North have improved in all areas since he was injured and outside players are really dependant on supply from contested players, of which North has plenty.
I wouldnt be at all surprised if he puts out some big scores playing weaker teams, and he may end up a keeper as a loophole option later in the season (a la cripps last year).
I dont expect half of that to happen but he has such a huge upside for 250k.

Barring injury affected games of course, I'm confident he'll average 90-100

 

[Gribnoor]

I wonder what Wells ceiling will be this year?
I think the majority are expecting an 80-90 average out of him at best, but its possible he may score a bit better than that.
North have improved in all areas since he was injured and outside players are really dependant on supply from contested players, of which North has plenty.
I wouldnt be at all surprised if he puts out some big scores playing weaker teams, and he may end up a keeper as a loophole option later in the season (a la cripps last year).
I dont expect half of that to happen but he has such a huge upside for 250k.

2011: 104.1 ave. over 21 games
2012: 98.5 ave. over 19 games
2013: 96.2 ave. over 22 games

A club duel-B&F winner, was one of the most damaging midfielders in the comp when on the park.

Priced at $243.9k, implied price at 45.0 ppg.

I'm just going to leave this here. I know what I'm doing if he is named R1 however...

 

[stevebbb]

2011: 104.1 ave. over 21 games
2012: 98.5 ave. over 19 games
2013: 96.2 ave. over 22 games

A club duel-B&F winner, was one of the most damaging midfielders in the comp when on the park.

Priced at $243.9k, implied price at 45.0 ppg.

I'm just going to leave this here. I know what I'm doing if he is named R1 however...

Yeah people shouldn't be worried about his scoring potential, he'll score just fine, I'm predicting a 82-94 average.

If he is named round 1, he's in my side. All I need is a run of early games

 

[TheOz]

Yeah people shouldn't be worried about his scoring potential, he'll score just fine, I'm predicting a 82-94 average.

If he is named round 1, he's in my side. All I need is a run of early games

Could be the JJK of a few seasons ago which would be a terrific outcome. 8 to 10 games of solid scoring and a decent profit, enough to trade into a fallen premo directly should be the realistic expectation imo.

 

[Hairy Lager]

Could be the JJK of a few seasons ago which would be a terrific outcome. 8 to 10 games of solid scoring and a decent profit, enough to trade into a fallen premo directly should be the realistic expectation imo.

Will be a hell of a ride but a straight swap is definitely on the cards if he can stay on the park.
DPP is lock.
Waiting for the probability boys to shoot me down.

 

[big bootaaaaah]

2011: 104.1 ave. over 21 games
2012: 98.5 ave. over 19 games
2013: 96.2 ave. over 22 games

A club duel-B&F winner, was one of the most damaging midfielders in the comp when on the park.

Priced at $243.9k, implied price at 45.0 ppg.

I'm just going to leave this here. I know what I'm doing if he is named R1 however...

Well I can say I did my bit to try and talk people out of it and if that didn't work then you know you want him. I'm 50/50 ATM but if named round 1 I'm betting I'll get him too unless there's an overdose of decent js rookies.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Wells 2016 is like Higgins 2014.

Both ~$250k starting price and with decent scoring history.

Higgins played 20 games in 2014 (missed games later in the year, rds 17 & 18) and averaged 76.4 (with 7 scores over 85).

Sure Wells is older than Higgins was in 2014 (Wells just turned 31, Higgins was 26), but he's fit and looks raring to go.

Worth the risk imo

Wells has a far better SC history than him though. At least you know what you'll get if he actually does get out on the park.

240k is minimal risk for a probable 80-90+ average. If he can put together 8-10 games at that average he would have done his job.

I don't see him as a risk at all. He gets injured early, you downgrade. Wouldn't bother me at all if I got it wrong, but he has to be picked at the price and what he's shown so far.

 

[Stealthchicken]

Cloke will see more of the ball like i said excellent midfield delivery and cheaper

I see where ya coming from but I've got nothing to base it on than a gut feeling.

If you look back on his whole history he's never score from his goal kicking, his best scores were off his marking.

This year we'll have descent delivery into the fwdline and I'm hoping that the other tall fwds have better coordination above the waist than last year to lighten the load.

 

[joop]

I have Wells too, I'm predicting a 40-120 average.

 

[clogwearer]

I have Wells too, I'm predicting a 40-120 average.

I can deal with that from a guy who will play 1-22 games.

 

[Feerits Elf]

This year we'll have descent delivery into the fwdline

Good, a downward trajectory will certainly assist your tall forwards.

 

[nameless]

Wells is currently my F3...

I'm not sure how I feel about that.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Update: Most popular forward selections as at 9 March 2016:

1. Kerridge (54%)
2. M.Brown (51%)
3. Petracca (51%) on the nose
4. Martin (44%)
5. Wells (37%) on the rise
6. Barlow (29%)
7. Cox (27%) on the rise
8. Grimley (24%) on the rise
9. Franklin (17%) on the nose
10. Simpkin (17%) on the nose
11. Kommer (16%)
12. Anderson (15%)
13. D.Menzel (15%)
14. McDonald-Tipungwuti (15%) on the rise
15. B.Kennedy (14%)
16. Stringer (14%)
17. Dahlhaus (14%)
18. De Goey (13%) on the rise
19. Leuenberger (13%) on the nose
20. Cockatoo (13%)

Update: Most popular forward selections as at 28 February 2016:

1. Petracca (53%)
2. Kerridge (52%) on the rise
3. M.Brown (48%)
4. Martin (42%)
5. Wells (31%)
6. Barlow (27%) on the rise
7. Franklin (21%) on the nose
8. Grimley (20%) on the rise
9. Cox (20%) on the rise
10. Simpkin (20%)
11. Anderson (17%)
12. Leuenberger (16%) on the nose
13. Dahlhaus (15%)
14. Kommer (15%)
15. D.Menzel (13%)
16. Cockatoo (13%)
17. Stringer (12%) on the rise
18. B.Kennedy (12%)
19. Suckling (11%)
20. Wingard (11%)

Plenty of movement amongst the FWDs.

 

[stevebbb]

Wells is currently my F3...

I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I'm going to be forced to do the same soon That's if we don't get enough mid rookies and in order to keep a strong back line (which I think is important)

At least Wells has forward premo history so it sounds better in my head

 

[Krujan]

Hinkley re: Wingard.

 

[Nelso]

Hinkley re: Wingard.

View attachment 223300

Wingard might get the occasional run in the midfield but he will be spending 95% of his time in the forward line.

He will be looking forward to getting the crumbs when Dixon starts crashing the packs.

 

[stevebbb]

Wingard might get the occasional run in the midfield but he will be spending 95% of his time in the forward line.

He will be looking forward to getting the crumbs when Dixon starts crashing the packs.

Sounds good to me. 65+ goals for the Chad this season.

 

[toxic]

Sounds good to me. 65+ goals for the Chad this season.

That's 5 more than port will kick for the year tho

 

[Nelso]

Sounds good to me. 65+ goals for the Chad this season.

He had no preseason last year and still kicked 53 goals.

Has been flying this preseason. The only sessions he has missed is when he was stuck in Bali for a week due to the volcanic ashcloud.

60 goals this season is easily achievable.