AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14

[targett]

J.Lloyd O28.5 $1.9/B356 8/11

Cashed out on this. Took
O27.5 $1.84/TopB 9/11

 

[Keystone agony]

Cashed out on this. Took
O27.5 $1.84/TopB 9/11

So took a loss already

Just to get 1 disposal less for $0.06 less ?

Why would you do that

In be4 he gets 28 for ya ha, but seriously? How much do you find yourself down already?

 

[targett]

Chicken feed compared losing the lot.believe me ive been rolled by a pos a few times

 

[Oraz]

Adding another 10u to my already 8u on sydney @ 1.40

 

[VK92]

So took a loss already

Just to get 1 disposal less for $0.06 less ?

Why would you do that

In be4 he gets 28 for ya ha, but seriously? How much do you find yourself down already?

Why wouldn't you? 1 possie could make the difference.

 

[VK92]

1.5 Units Essendon +17.5 @1.92
1U Essendon +24.5 @1.92
2U Hurley <92.5 @1.75
1U Lloyd <107.5 @1.87

Could be a late out for swans with marsh held over last half of neafl ... last minute

Maybe Lloyd or melican i reckon

Where did you get 92.5 for Hurley?

 

[targett]

Why wouldn't you? 1 possie could make the difference.

Hell yea I'd be worse off over time not taking the the extra pos on offer.

 

[Keystone agony]

I dont really understand doing that to be honest

Late bet:
Heppell -1 to Buddy (Fantasy) - I owe pointsbet 0.05u

 

[benno_]

Hell yea I'd be worse off over time not taking the the extra pos on offer.

yeah it's amazing the amount of times I've had a disposal bet win or lose by only like a disposal or so. I always take the lower line even if its slightly lower odds, as long as its not significantly lower. I cashed out of one yesterday for a 5% loss to give myself the extra disposal.

 

[Keystone agony]

Where did you get 92.5 for Hurley?

Was yesteday either sportsbet or crownbet

 

[mookieb]

On Syd for the win with Crown and mixed and matched the Ubet, Bet365 and Sportsbet promo's hoping for some momentum changes. Also Ess +23.5 and over 176.5.

 

[targett]

yeah it's amazing the amount of times I've had a disposal bet win or lose by only like a disposal or so. I always take the lower line even if its slightly lower odds, as long as its not significantly lower. I cashed out of one yesterday for a 5% loss to give myself the extra disposal.

Yea and if your player stats are 7/11 63% @ 29 disp then you take an extra pos to 28 he may go to 9/11 81%.Normally the odds wont be too far apart either if not the same.

 

[sneak]

Any player stats at pointsbet that people like

 

[hedgedhog]

yeah it's amazing the amount of times I've had a disposal bet win or lose by only like a disposal or so. I always take the lower line even if its slightly lower odds, as long as its not significantly lower. I cashed out of one yesterday for a 5% loss to give myself the extra disposal.

If you think about how long you might be doing this, it's worth it. You never know how long you're going to bet for, taking worse lines at better odds might pay off for you in the long run but you might not be betting for the 3-4 years that it takes to realise this benefit. You're almost always better off taking a better line at slightly worse odds. I always prefer say -20.5@1.88 over -21.5@1.93 because of this.

 

[Keystone agony]

Late bet Rohan 0.22 Units <7 points (pointsbet)

 

[Jugada]

If you think about how long you might be doing this, it's worth it. You never know how long you're going to bet for, taking worse lines at better odds might pay off for you in the long run but you might not be betting for the 3-4 years that it takes to realise this benefit. You're almost always better off taking a better line at slightly worse odds. I always prefer say -20.5@1.88 over -21.5@1.93 because of this.

The variable difference between a single point is almost nothing. You are much better off just taking whichever is better +EV and i can't imagine giving up 5c for a single point is better value

 

[Keystone agony]

The variable difference between a single point is almost nothing. You are much better off just taking whichever is better +EV and i can't imagine giving up 5c for a single point is better value

This

 

[Jugada]

Why wouldn't you? 1 possie could make the difference.

Because taking double vig is already a terrible strategy before even bothering with if 1 point is worth 6c

 

[Spacedog]

1U Josh Kennedy to have 30 or more disposals and Sydney win the match
1U I Heeney Over 97.5 (AFL Fantasy)
1U Z Merrett Under 117.5 (AFL Fantasy)
1U T Papley Over 84.5 (AFL Fantasy)
1U J Lloyd Over 104.5 (AFL Fantasy)
1U Jake Lloyd vs Luke Parker Supercoach - Jake Lloyd
5U Sydney Swans (-13.5)
5U Essendon (+23.5)

Going well so far

 

[hedgedhog]

The variable difference between a single point is almost nothing. You are much better off just taking whichever is better +EV and i can't imagine giving up 5c for a single point is better value

Highly disagree. You put the odds and % chance of covering into a calculator and a point is worth about 3c. More if the game is expected to be close. Less if it's expected to be a blowout. If you're paying an extra 2c to land 1 extra bet for a season it's well worth it if you don't know how long you will be betting for.

What's Sportsbet promotion worth to me? I would definitely take 2.40 and the SB payout promotion rather than 2.55 somewhere else.

 

[hedgedhog]

Essendon are Richmond in disguise lol

 

[Gift]

Pregame they said on tv that someone put 20k on Essendon. He probably threw his remote at the tv at the end lol

 

[Victor harbor]

Pregame they said on tv that someone put 20k on Essendon. He probably threw his remote at the tv at the end lol

Tippin he's sleeping in the dog house tonight.

 

[Jugada]

Highly disagree. You put the odds and % chance of covering into a calculator and a point is worth about 3c. More if the game is expected to be close. Less if it's expected to be a blowout. If you're paying an extra 2c to land 1 extra bet for a season it's well worth it if you don't know how long you will be betting for.

What's Sportsbet promotion worth to me? I would definitely take 2.40 and the SB payout promotion rather than 2.55 somewhere else.

If a point is worth 3c how is giving up 5c for a point a better bet?

Not sure just put the odds and % chance into a calculator is a very scientific formula either

No that is just wrong. Its like punters taking a bigger pick your own line at worse value to try to increase their strike rate. Its not worth it at all no matter how long you are going to be betting. The difference in strike rate is so minimal at that point anyway that the variance isn't even going to matter

 

[Spads]

Highly disagree. You put the odds and % chance of covering into a calculator and a point is worth about 3c. More if the game is expected to be close. Less if it's expected to be a blowout. If you're paying an extra 2c to land 1 extra bet for a season it's well worth it if you don't know how long you will be betting for.

What's Sportsbet promotion worth to me? I would definitely take 2.40 and the SB payout promotion rather than 2.55 somewhere else.

Standard deviation in possessions is also much less than the standard deviation in game score differentials. Hence 1 point difference on the line is not comparable to a one point difference in possession total.

Taking shit odds on the line is quite easy to prove as an inferior strategy. Possessions, if a specific players posession distribution is narrow enough, may be ok, but I'm still doubtful.