AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14

[hedgedhog]

Standard deviation in possessions is also much less than the standard deviation in game score differentials. Hence 1 point difference on the line is not comparable to a one point difference in possession total.

Taking shit odds on the line is quite easy to prove as an inferior strategy. Possessions, if a specific players posession distribution is narrow enough, may be ok, but I'm still doubtful.

I'm not commenting on it's benefit with regards to possessions, I have no idea what the value of a possession is there.

I think it's obvious that taking inferior lines is not a winning strategy in the long run. However, for the average casual punter, how many bets are you really putting on every week? Especially with AFL where there are such a low number of games every season compared to something like NBA or MLB. Variance is your friend or enemy because to place the same amount of bets someone might make in those sports might take you 3-4 seasons and hence your turnover is much lower. This is why I advocate a better line at slightly worse odds.

I would also advocate never betting on any team to win at 1.10 or less in AFL. One loss will take a whole season to make back if even that, and if you lose twice at 1.10 or less you will be down money for the season at those odds. There's simply not enough games to turn over at those odds every season.

Anyway I can see that I'm in the absolute minority on this so I'll leave it at this.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Took Buddy at over 95.5 fantasy points.

Amazing that even with his poor goal kicking he came up just short.

Would love to have seen the trading numbers on betfair

 

[targett]

Pinnacle Line movement's

Pies v Port. +4.5 ➡ +3.5
Lions v GWS. -33.5 ➡ -35.5
Dogs v North. +15.5➡+9.5
Eagles v Demons. +17.5➡+8.5

 

[Keystone agony]

Hard to know what you get in the first quarter esepecially if scooter late out fir murdoch which i expect for freo vs geel game.

Think freo to leade qtr time Freo/Geel/Geel/Geel or Freo at qtr time line or freo to leade at qtr time ... unsure what best odds are for that? Can anyone help

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Each

Pendles >106.5
Westhoff <90.5
Boak >94.5
Winws >108.5

3U Barrett <76.5 Geez crown lettinf me get plenty onnn) benno_


Need a rebound

 

[Oraz]

Thoughts on Dogs v North?

 

[Oraz]

Is there a late out for the eagles?

Dees from 2.50 into 2.10 now

 

[Mazza12346]

Is there a late out for the eagles?

Dees from 2.50 into 2.10 now

this what the hell has happened here?

 

[Oraz]

this what the hell has happened here?

I was going to put a unit on melbourne because i liked their value but now their odds have been crunched

 

[Mazza12346]

I was going to put a unit on melbourne because i liked their value but now their odds have been crunched

yeah i got +17.5 @ 1.9 but they have been smashed in H2H

 

[Keystone agony]

Is there a late out for the eagles?

Dees from 2.50 into 2.10 now

Youd ve pretty stoked you had 12U on Swans for the win last night? huge +4.8 Unit night for you and no affect on blood systolic or diastolic levels

 

[Keystone agony]

Melbourne will be down by 3-4 goals at half time/qtr time**

**Unless late out is huge

 

[Keystone agony]

Pinnacle Line movement's

Pies v Port. +4.5 ➡ +3.5
Lions v GWS. -33.5 ➡ -35.5
Dogs v North. +15.5➡+9.5
Eagles v Demons. +17.5➡+8.5

How has rhe Geelong freo market fluctuated? Im trying to predict whether Scooter is a late out or not

 

[targett]

Hard to know what you get in the first quarter esepecially if scooter late out fir murdoch which i expect for freo vs geel game.

Think freo to leade qtr time Freo/Geel/Geel/Geel or Freo at qtr time line or freo to leade at qtr time ... unsure what best odds are for that? Can anyone help

What's the best odds you have ?

 

[langdon19]

this what the hell has happened here?

I assume a club has hit it.
I reckon Melb have the mids to trouble WC. They should have beaten them last year at Subi. Kennedy out, lecras out.
I've pegged it as a danger game for WC

 

[Mazza12346]

I assume a club has hit it.
I reckon Melb have the mids to trouble WC. They should have beaten them last year at Subi. Kennedy out, lecras out.
I've pegged it as a danger game for WC

agree although dees have no forwards though

 

[targett]

How has rhe Geelong freo market fluctuated? Im trying to predict whether Scooter is a late out or not

Cats v Freo -34.5 ➡-52.5

 

[ricardogp]

I thought I saw that the Dogs game was a Chase the Points game at Crown? But now it's not? Was I mistaken?

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

 

[ricardogp]

Melbourne will be down by 3-4 goals at half time/qtr time**

**Unless late out is huge

Also liking the qtr-time markets. Eagles have a record of stretching a 4-5 goal lead in the 1st quarter and then just holding it.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

 

[JuddyBuddy]

Rockliff > 106.5 DT? He's had a couple low scores since coming back from injury, but he's a renowned pig. Surely due for a big one.

 

[X_box_X]

Melbourne into favourites.

I just watched the Pinny line go nuts.

 

[Oraz]

Melbourne into favourites.

I just watched the Pinny line go nuts.

Surely a late out?

How can a line move so much without there being so

 

[Lensen]

the ratio of postings here of "wow big line move so must be a late out" to there actually being a late out of significance has to be at least 30:1

 

[targett]

Melb +9.5 1.90 before the crunch

 

[X_box_X]

You can still get Melbourne at $2.15 to win the 1H with a few books.