AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14

[X_box_X]

$2.30 for the Dees at HT with Tab Touch

 

[X_box_X]

$2.30 for the Dees at QT with Ubet.

 

[rOdGe]

Staggered at Melbournes odds shortening. Isn't it there 3rd game in 16 days? Not to mention in WA, plus no Jones, Watts and Hogan still. Still think West Coast should be clear favourites.

 

[Gift]

The odds movement is crazy with no clear news of anything however money talks.

 

[Lensen]

third game in 16 days (it isnt) doesn't sound like much of a disadvantage

 

[rOdGe]

It is.

It's actually there 3rd game in 12 days

 

[mookieb]

third game in 16 days (it isnt) doesn't sound like much of a disadvantage

Unless you have stats showing otherwise I assume back to back 6 day breaks and the second involving a trip to Perth might have some negative effects.

 

[targett]

Unless you have stats showing otherwise I assume back to back 6 day breaks and the second involving a trip to Perth might have some negative effects.

I agree however the Money disagrees

 

[Lensen]

Unless you have stats showing otherwise I assume back to back 6 day breaks and the second involving a trip to Perth might have some negative effects.

a - burden of proof
b - that a 3 games in 12 days not 16

 

[Spads]

Unless you have stats showing otherwise I assume back to back 6 day breaks and the second involving a trip to Perth might have some negative effects.

Lenny29 has actually posted these stats on this board, multiple times before. Was over many years. From memory, one 6 day break had no effect, 2 had a slight negative effect, and 3 had some effect.

So in summary, 2 six day breaks is not a singular reason why a team will or won't win a game

 

[mookieb]

I agree however the Money disagrees

Might be a good sign that i'm against the money (i'm on WC -8.5) given some of the late movements in lines and how the results have tallied up.

On NM +20.5 and WB -6.5 and Bris +43.5 and GWS -32.5 so hopefully the late monies right in this respect.

 

[X_box_X]

Dees came within a whisker of beating the Eagles in Perth last year. Dees are a lot better this year.

Dees have already proven they are a quality side with impressive wins against Adelaide and the Bulldogs and had it not been for poor kicking and/or Gawn getting injured, I daresay they also would have beaten Geelong.

 

[mookieb]

Lenny29 has actually posted these stats on this board, multiple times before. Was over many years. From memory, one 6 day break had no effect, 2 had a slight negative effect, and 3 had some effect.

So in summary, 2 six day breaks is not a singular reason why a team will or won't win a game

Do the stats include the impact of 6 day breaks plus the inclusion of a trip interstate? Your also saying consecutive 6 day breaks have a slightly negative effect then state that that this negative impact doesn't make a difference. If so it wouldn't be a negative right?

 

[mookieb]

a - burden of proof
b - that a 3 games in 12 days not 16

I don't know the answer hence why I was asking. I'm also assuming that consecutive 6 day breaks might be exacerbated by the longest road trip in AFL. Again I don't have the stats so not sure of the impact. I did read an article that should the impact of short breaks varies depending on the team ie older teams might be more fatigued.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I don't know the answer hence why I was asking. I'm also assuming that consecutive 6 day breaks might be exacerbated by the longest road trip in AFL. Again I don't have the stats so not sure of the impact. I did read an article that should the impact of short breaks varies depending on the team ie older teams might be more fatigued.

Port pies over total? Weather looks good pies playing fairly direct

 

[Profphat]

Hard to know what you get in the first quarter esepecially if scooter late out fir murdoch which i expect for freo vs geel game.

Think freo to leade qtr time Freo/Geel/Geel/Geel or Freo at qtr time line or freo to leade at qtr time ... unsure what best odds are for that? Can anyone help

I think freo are going to get smashed from the start. They are playing away and no Sandi and fyfe. Henderson out for the cats, but they regain Hawkins and Blicavs.

 

[langdon19]

Port pies over total? Weather looks good pies playing fairly direct

Pies scoring well, port defending well.
I worked it to 175

 

[demon_fanatic]

Port pies over total? Weather looks good pies playing fairly direct

I like Bris 33.5 too.. no Kelly another mid cog that's Bris strengTh and I like their ins

 

[Oraz]

liking brisbane too
Might take them for half time line +13.5

 

[targett]

Pies scoring well, port defending well.
I worked it to 175

180

 

[rOdGe]

a - burden of proof
b - that a 3 games in 12 days not 16

But 12 days is worse than 16? :/ lol

 

[X_box_X]

Wines most disposals at $9
Fasolo o11 pts w Pointsbet

 

[desTROY]

Not on him, but the last 2 weeks have confirmed to me to never bet on R.Gray FGS

 

[Spacedog]

Shiel over 101.5 DT
Taranto over 70.5 DT

Hoping they get more of it without kelly in there

 

[X_box_X]

Taranto o70.5 DT pts at $2 w Crownbet.