AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

[apolis]

Really like St Kilda

I think Geelong's win against the Hawks was flattering. Geelong also seem to struggle against quick sides and St Kilda are one of those teams that can move the ball at pace

Agree somewhat, I don't think the Saints should be as long as they are. I don't think we are quite as susceptible to pace as we were last year, when we had Longergan, Taylor, Henderson, Kolodj and Mackie all down there a lot of the time.

 

[free at last]

Really like St Kilda

I think Geelong's win against the Hawks was flattering. Geelong also seem to struggle against quick sides and St Kilda are one of those teams that can move the ball at pace

Edit;

As for the Essendon v Collingwood debate

Both teams are average.
I'd rate both teams in that 10th - 14th range

It will be wet on Tuesday, Probably a low scoring and low quality game. Flip of the coin. Pies will probably win (based on Essendon's form in the wet)

Percentage chance of it being wet on Anzac Day in Melbourne please?

 

[maskmcgee]

It will be wet on Tuesday,

1. Bullshit
2. Pile money on Collingwood if true

 

[maskmcgee]

Well i personally didn't know because I don't work for the Swan's medical team.

Well I don't either but I have a radio.

 

[targett]

Percentage chance of it being wet on Anzac Day in Melbourne please?

Possible shower15°C20°C
Chance of rain: 90% (1-5mm)

Humidity: 9am: 81% 3pm: 72%
Wind 9am:

NNW 10km/h
Wind 3pm:

SSW 14km/h

 

[targett]

Collingwood -2.5 Ladbrokes 1.92
Essenon + 6.5 Unibet 1.91

 

[yamahamoto]

GC will not have May and Thompson this week. Swallow and Barlow in doubt. Line will drift out soon.

 

[juss]

I'm torn between taking the Hawks outright, taking their +line, or not taking them at all.
I figure they have enough pride and still some handy players to win one soon, and it will click for them one day. This year teams smalled by the media have shown an ability to improve the next week, and they are copping it from everyone at the moment. West Coast are also terrible at the G.

On the other hand, the Eagles are a much better team so far, and may be hellbent on breaking their MCG hoodoo. So i could realistically see them smashing the Hawks by 50+ with their forward line.

I also like the Saints at +15.5, and am tempted to take them H2H at $2.85

I expect Anzac day to be close, so I may do a pick your own line for Essendon at about +10.5 points and multi that into Port H2H for a touch more value.

 

[iluvparis]

Weren't Hawthorn mauled in the media last week after getting pumped by the Gold Coast?

 

[juss]

Weren't Hawthorn mauled in the media last week after getting pumped by the Gold Coast?

They were, but Cats at the G is a much harder task for them than Eagles at the G right now. If I take anything on this game at all I think I will take the Hawthorn +line if it gets out a touch more.

 

[maskmcgee]

Hawks are a joke they'll go 0 - 22

 

[benno_]

Jake Lloyd is killing it in both DT and SC averaging 100+ in both, how do you guys think the possible returning players and potential improvement from guys like Parker/Hanners this week will impact his scoring against the Giants? The bookies have his DT score for this week set at 98.5 which is fairly high, liking the unders if those things i mentioned before could negatively impact his scoring.

Posted this over on the Swans DT board ^^^ but I'll chuck it up here too in case anyone has some thoughts on it.

Has scored 87, 113, 108, 110 this year, but that 98.5 is a fairly high line. Could his scoring take a bit of a hit this week with their ins and his hot streak end and go back to the mid 80's like he averaged last year?

 

[10571z]

No way i would touch pies vs Essendon. Absolute flip of a coin for me.

 

[10571z]

Now that a few agencies specails are over anyone know of any decent ones? Tab and William hill were excellent with cash back or bonus bet within 30

 

[Jugada]

No way i would touch pies vs Essendon. Absolute flip of a coin for me.

Wouldn't you take $2.15 about a coin flip then?

 

[wizzard400]

Does anyone know where to find the Fantasy and SC markets on Ladbrokes? I've looked through every game and they don't seem to be offering it at all...

 

[Jugada]

Does anyone know where to find the Fantasy and SC markets on Ladbrokes? I've looked through every game and they don't seem to be offering it at all...

I haven't looked but i would guess they put them up closer to match time

 

[Zevon]

Posted this over on the Swans DT board ^^^ but I'll chuck it up here too in case anyone has some thoughts on it.

Has scored 87, 113, 108, 110 this year, but that 98.5 is a fairly high line. Could his scoring take a bit of a hit this week with their ins and his hot streak end and go back to the mid 80's like he averaged last year?

I tend to agree, 98.5 is high for Lloyd this week.

His two games at the SCG so far this year have produced his two lowest scores. Yes he scored 108 v Collingwood but that was a game where some massive fantasy numbers were racked up across the field (total fantasy points for that game exceed 3,500 which is huge... Adams went 137, Treloar 134, Grundy 133, Sidebottom 126, Hannebery 125, Pendles 115). So the 108 wasn't as good as it looks.

I see the GWS game being a lot more similar to the Port game in round 1 (total fantasy points in that game was closer to 3,000 and Lloyd only had 87). It's also worth noting that the Giants are likely to get a lot more of the ball than we are and Lloyd is not a big tackler.

All in all I reckon U98.5 is a solid, solid wager. May end up tailing you on it if it's still available.

 

[benno_]

1.1U Lloyd under 98.5 DT @1.88 (crown)

Went to 1.77 and now its 1.70. Early in the week DT prices are very sensitive once a few people bet on them.

Crown will likely come out again with maybe around 95.5 @1.88 later in the week with the official game DT market. SB might still open with him at 97-99 on Thursday.

 

[10571z]

Wouldn't you take $2.15 about a coin flip then?

Doesn't quite work like that. Yes if i had 10000 flips of the coin with the same odds. But im simply saying this game is tough to pick. Take the 2.15 but you may walk away with nothing.

 

[Vhaluus]

Doesn't quite work like that. Yes if i had 10000 flips of the coin with the same odds. But im simply saying this game is tough to pick. Take the 2.15 but you may walk away with nothing.

If 15% on an even coin flip isnt high enough odds in your favor im not sure gambling is for you.

 

[Jugada]

Doesn't quite work like that. Yes if i had 10000 flips of the coin with the same odds. But im simply saying this game is tough to pick. Take the 2.15 but you may walk away with nothing.

As a rule that's exactly how gambling works, if you are getting better odds than the probability of something happening then its a good bet. You may walk away with nothing on any one bet you make but thats not really the point

 

[Lensen]

pick winnaz valyoo doesn't mattaz

 

[mookieb]

Liking GC on the line. Crows players dropping left and right and it's going to start taking its toll.

Plus their scores aren't quite as ridiculous away from home.

I'm on the other side. GC could possibly be missing - Thompson, May, Hanley, Day (confirmed) and potentially Swallow and Barlow. For Adelaide I expect Crouch and Jenkins to come in. That's a massive mismatch for Adelaide's forwardline and if Swallow, Barlow and Hanley all miss that means the midfield has been drained meaning more ball into Ade's forwards.

If GC had a full list to choose from I think they could have potentially kept this close having shown some good form in the last couple of weeks.

Given the above this game could be a bit of a shoot out and likely to go over.

 

[maskmcgee]

As a rule that's exactly how gambling works, if you are getting better odds than the probability of something happening then its a good bet. You may walk away with nothing on any one bet you make but thats not really the point

Unless you mutli needlessly on a 50/50 game a blow everything.