Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

[Azul]

Lochie O'Brien mate

Surely that's LOBM.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

When you've had too many of these...

I'm not as think as you drunk I am.......officer.

*HIC*

One of those in the mirror?

 

[GapInIkonPark]

For those of you who wonder why Arr0w, LemmingMaster and myself are impressed with Adam Cerra here's the link to his video V Vic Country. Notice how his kicks always hit the target.

Adam Cerra v Vic Country | 2017 NAB U18 Championships

I guess a couple of things we've forgotten to mention about him is that he marks the ball a lot for midfielder. He's pretty tall and will only get stronger as his body fills out. He's also deceptively quick.

Yes please.

 

[Arr0w]

There is a very real chance we won't be bottom 4.

We have quite a few winnable games ahead

And unfortunately losable ones too

 

[Robertio]

Ooh bonus, live on Fox.

Who am I keeping an eye out for??

Here's one Higgins......he's a little bull.

Didn't Shifter say he reminded him of Joel Selwood?

 

[The Dominator7]

Didn't Shifter say he reminded him of Joel Selwood?

IMO opinion after watching yesterday, he's like a Gresham clone - size, movement, tricky and good skills off both feet. Only thing I saw different was Higgins has an inside game at U18 level.

I didn't hear the Selwood comparison but when asked, Mick Ablett said his standout trait was his footy nous. Others who get to see him live may see it differently, along with how their game will translate next level up etc. you can't tell how they cover the ground on tv.

 

[The Dominator7]

Surely that's LOBM.

Ha...only if you say it LOB Mmmmmmm

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Jaidyn Stephenson looks a gem. Goal kicking midfielder. Yes please.

 

[bigdog43]

I sat a few seats away from SOS on Friday night and there seemed to be a bit of talk about Stephenson. Ben SOS was actually at the game and SOS spent the majority of the second half just coaching Ben by pointing out what the players on the ground were doing wrong/right.

 

[Foucault1989]

I sat a few seats away from SOS on Friday night and there seemed to be a bit of talk about Stephenson. Ben SOS was actually at the game and SOS spent the majority of the second half just coaching Ben by pointing out what the players on the ground were doing wrong/right.

Incredible info. Thanks for sharing. Next time I need to find out if my neighbour is stealing my mulch I'll give you a call because you have exceptional observation and stealth skills

 

[Toddski]

I hope that Silvagni & Brodie call out J. Stephenson name come draft night , very quick, the most naturallly gifted footballer with X facotor.
Jaiden would be an amazing assest to CFC.

Don't rate his disposal at all.

Come on guys we need class.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Snuck down to Etihad to shiver through both games with another couple of thousand or so ice cubes. As shithouse as the coffee van at Punt Rd was and as long as it took to get served there, at least they ****ing had one. Believe it or not, you actually had to leave the Stadium and venture into one of the outside cafes if you wanted to acquire one.

Vic Country V Western Australia.
After last weeks effort against Metro I was expecting Country to comfortably win this one, but it just goes to show:

1. That irrespective of talent, the individuals who play as a team will always beat the team who play as individuals.
2. WA's extensive planning meant they had this game won before they even took the field.
3. The ability, discipline and team ethos displayed by the WA team to stick to and execute a predetermined game plan may well lead to some of the borderline draft prospects in this team being selected above those from others.

A very well coached and drilled team of Sandgropers came into this match with a game plan to take away Country's strength by providing them very little opportunity to acquire contested ball and expose them with pace and maintaining possession coming back the other way. When bringing the ball out of defence around 10 the WA players would line up like a perfect Margaret River wave from one side of the centre square to the boundary on the other side of the ground. There would be one kick out of defence to an unmarked player 50m or so from the defensive goal and then they'd handball, handball, handball from one player to the next as the "wave" surged forward. Once they got the ball about 15 metres past the centre circle someone such as England or Hill would hit the gas and hit up a fast leading forward, such as Allen or Naughton. Whenever they buggered up, they'd just win the ball back or force a stoppage, reset and go again. Playing this way the key to setting up their 29 point lead to half time.

For some reason after half time WA went back to a more conventional style of footy and the bigger bodies of the Country midfield started to gain the ascendency. To Country's credit they gradually began to reel in the lead that WA had established and drew within 11 points half way through the last quarter. Then in the occasional fit and spurt some of the WA boys reconstructed a mini-wave to bring the ball forward where a series of goals iced the match. From a tactical perspective this has easily been the most interesting game of the Championships I've seen so far.

WA Players.

• Oscar Allen - It was a game of 2 halves for Allen as his fate was determined by how the ball entered the front half. Leads up hard and fast at the ball carrier who snaffles the ball with vice-like hands. Has good speed which allowed him to gain separation from Clavarino. Once WA started bombing the ball into the front F50 after half time, Clavarino's extra height and reach had the edge. Competes hard in the air and on the deck, but he also does the team things such as tackling and shepherding. Doesn't have a huge spring and being 191cm I'd expect him to be a 3rd tall at the next level. Has a nice kicking action and 3 goals was good reward for a great days work against the best KPD in underage footy.
• Jarrod Fazioli - Small forward who benefitted from WA's disciplined game plan and snaffled 3 first half goals as a result. Won't go into anymore detail here as he's not available until the 2018 draft.
• Jake Patmore - Hard-working midfielder who gets the ball on both the inside and the outside. Had a massive influence in distributing the ball into the "wave' during the first half and his disposals by hand of foot were on the whole pretty good. Was one of the few WA players who continued to excel when WA reverted to a more conventional game style in the second half. Laid a few nice tackles just to show he can do a few defensive things as well. Recruiters would have loved his exceptional work rate.
• Callan England - Another of WAs fleet of small/medium midfielders who seemed to be just everywhere during the first half. Was quite effective by hand or foot and he can walk away from these championships knowing he's done all he can to put his name forward to be drafted.
• Ian Hill - Another of WA's underage brigade who's not available until 2018, so I won't go into too much detail. Played a nice game and will be one of the names everyone keeps tabs on during next years U18 champs.
• Aaron Redhead - Red-headed ruckman who has the nickname "Blue". No I'm not kidding.
• Kyron Hayden - Played a good game that would have gone unnoticed doing many of the "team" things. Put Worpel under as much pressure as possible around the stoppages and played his role in tidying up missed handballs from the wave.
• The Rest - It was quite hard to separate a lot of the WA kids out due to the "team first" method of playing the game and in some ways I feel bad for having highlighted the ones I have at the expense of others. Brandon Starcevich and Christian Ameduri also played good roles without really standing out to be best players.

Vic Country Players.

• James Worpel - Played with his usual vim and vigour, but the tactics WA used really nullified the defensive side of his game, specifically his tackling, and also exposed his lack of pace at times by playing the ball around him rather than near him where he could exert an influence. Worpel isn't what I'd call slow, but he's certainly not quick either. His work around the stoppages in the first half was never lacking, but he failed to bring others into the game by either hand or foot. Was moved into defence after half time, but you always got the sense it wasn't where he wanted to be as he snuck back into the centre square looking to get into the action whenever the opportunity presented itself. So while Worpel didn't have a great game he didn't have a poor one either. One thing that was different in the amphitheatre of Etihad V Punt Rd is that you could hear the players better. It was interesting to hear Worpel barking instructions to team mates re positioning and giving them encouragement.
• Sam Walsh - Underage small/medium mid who is just skin and bones atm. Spent much of the match on the bench, but whenever he came onto the ground he never had trouble finding the ball. Distribution of the ball by hand or foot is generally pretty clean. Like Hill, Walsh will be highly sought after next year.
• LDU - Was pretty disappointing in this match. Put himself in a lot of strange positions looking for easy possessions. Would stand too far away for a kid to comfortably handball to him, but too short for someone to kick it to him. Given this was his default positioning both this week and last week, I can only assume that this is how he gets a lot of his footy at school level. Once Worpel was moved out of the middle after half time and LDU was "made the man" he showed a lot more urgency and became a lot more effective working in concert with Paddy Dow and Country looked a lot more threatening as a result. I saw LDU literally tear it up for AIS against the Northern Blues with 22 possessions and 6 clearances so you'd be silly to write him off, but he's been disappointing this series after getting off to a great start against the Allies.
• Brent Daniels - Was one of the few Country boys who provided a presence for the entire match. Worked really hard between the 50m arcs and in the front half finding plenty of the ball in contested situations or out in the open. Has plenty of speed, but his kicking needs work as it let him down on quite a few occasions.
• Cassidy Parish - Was absolutely staggered to see him listed in Country's best. He's not slow, but like Worpel he can be a bit one-paced and nor can he be played anywhere else as his disposal is so poor by foot you really can't play him in a second position. The kid tries really hard, but I suspect he may well find himself going the same way as Jonty Scharenberg.
• Lochie O'Brien - Another I was really surprised to see listed in Country's best. Yes the kid got out on his own, yes the kid can run fast, yes the kid is a nice size, yes the kid has a booming left foot kick, but for every time he hit the target he burnt another one. The other thing that became apparent is that O'Brien will need to develop a defensive side to his game. For every time he got out on his own, he got burnt when the ball came back the other way and he was often caught 50m out of position. Because WA swept the ball away in their "wave" of motion there was no way O'Brien could get back to become a defensive factor. There's a lot to like about O'Brien, but which ever club drafts him will need to show a little patience while certain areas of his game learned or bolstered with some time in the VFL.
• Gryan Miers - Had an absolute shocker and just couldn't get near it. The way WA moved the ball by hand meant there were no short kicks or ones scrubbed along the ground for Miers to snaffle. Had absolutely no impact in this game.
• Hunter Clark - Used in defence for pretty much most of the day. Was really surprised he wasn't used more in the middle to provide some impact at the stoppages or around the ground to provide a different presence at the contest.
• Bailey Williams - Played a reasonably solid game for Country without really dominating. Was quite good in the ruck, took some solid marks around the ground and always looked threatening up forward.

As always, these are just my own thoughts. Others will have their own thoughts and opinions....and to those people I say Keep them to your ****ing self.

I'll do the other game a little later.

 

[CRIPPA9]

I sat a few seats away from SOS on Friday night and there seemed to be a bit of talk about Stephenson. Ben SOS was actually at the game and SOS spent the majority of the second half just coaching Ben by pointing out what the players on the ground were doing wrong/right.

Also sat a couple of seats away from SOS and his recruiting entourage in the first half of Country vs WA.
Wasn't much chatter as you'd expect while watching what was a pretty uninspiring and at times boring game. SOS wasn't taking any notes, just stared pretty blankly at the game.
Two things that I did pick up however:
Every time bottom-ager Ian Hill picked up the ball there was a sense of excitement amongst the group. Tags such as "gun" and "potential pick one next year" were thrown around.
Every time Uniacke made a mistake SOS shook his head. This suggests he's interested but disappointed(?).
Doubt we'll have our first pick anyway if the Kelly rumours are true.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Vic Metro V South Australia
Must admit the boys from SA have been a real disappointment in this Carnival. The Croweaters were left to look like unwilling participants in this one and the result showed accordingly. While its tempting not to place too much emphasis on individual performances when one team is so dominant, this can also seen as being unfair to those who worked their butts off achieve those good accolades. To give you an idea of Metros dominance they used a second string midfield against a hapless Crows outfit to devastating effect.

Vic Metro Players.

• Cameron Rayner - Was in another stratosphere compared to the poor Crows defenders who were left shellshocked by the power and ferocity of his attack on the ball in the air and the man on the ground. His tackling was particularly forceful and you could hear the smack of bodies 50m away in the cold night air whenever he wrapped up a helpless Crows victim. While 5 goals showcased his accurate kicking, it was his overhead marking and fast hard leading that really stood out in a very powerful display. Once again his leadership qualities were on display as he called in the troops into a close-knit huddle at QT, HT & 3QT. Probably spent 60% of game time up forward, 10% in the middle and 30% on the bench. If he wasn't the favourite to be picked up with the coveted No.1 pick before then he certainly is now.
• Will Sutherland - Played a much better game this week and was solid in the air, but just as importantly, showed some real skill in gathering the ball off the deck. Kicked a couple of nice early goals, but thereafter became somewhat preoccupied pushing and shoving against opponents half his size rather than capitalising on his early good work. Is he a better prospect as a tall forward than say Oscar Allen??? Dunno, but he's more raw than sushi and his lack of exposure to a more regimented system such as TAC Cup shows, whereas Allen's time in the WA underage system means his understanding of the game at this level is a little better and his skills have been further developed. The advantage Sutherland has is that he's genuine KPF size. One thing Sutherland did highlight in this game was his class with his overhead marking and kicking, which was something Arr0w made mention of in his game against Country last week.
• Sam Hayes - Can be very frustrating watching him play at times, because he all the tools, but lacks intent. He covers the ground extraordinarily well for someone his size, can take a mark, kick a goal, jump.......but he always leaves you feeling like he hasn't left everything he's got to give out on the ground. Yes he will get drafted, but based upon what I've seen a late 2nd/early 3rd Rounder would be the most you'd want to part with for him at this stage.
• Jack Petruccelli - Started off like a house on fire with a couple of early goals, but his ball handling often let him down for large parts of this game. Often had it spent before he'd properly secured the ball resulting in the ball ending up being spilt onto the ground where he'd have to contest for it all over again. Want to emphasise here that these ball handling errors were different from fumbling.
• Jaidyn Stephenson - Enjoyed the freedom of being unshackled from the forward line and let loose on the wing where he was able to put on a display that showcased his height, speed, aggression at the ball and generally very good disposal. Very hard to believe this was the same inconspicuous kid who was well contained by WA and Vic Country. I don't know what his reputation for endurance is like, but he didn't seem to spend much time on the bench and he covered an enormous amount of ground. Then again if you're in the zone and slamming through goal after goal then why would you want to come off. His work-rate and speed while covering significant territory would've really stood out to recruiters and I dare say pushed him right back up into top 10 calculations. BOG for mine.
• Adam Cerra - Spent a minimum of 50-60% of game time on the bench while others were given an opportunity to tear it up in the midfield. Both he and Rayner spent the entire first half of the 3rd Qtr on the bench. So if you were thinking he'd had a quiet night you were correct, but it's difficult to impact the game from the bench. Whenever he did come onto the ground he did some nice things and one of 40m passes he let rip to Rayner was a highlight. Overall he probably spent about 60% of game time on the bench, 20% in the middle and 20% up forward. Fair to say List Managers, Recruiters, Scouts, Spies and ASIO already know what Cerra brings to the table so no damage done here.
• Jack Higgins - Finds a lot of the ball and got a few clearances, but its hard to say how much impact he imparts on a game. He obviously has some simply due to the weight of numbers of possessions he acquires, but a lot of them don't take ground off the opposition. Irrespective of all that, the kid does work his backside off and leaves it all out on the field and the consistency of his effort is hard to question. His disposal is neat rather than telling, but he does have a second position he can play as an effective small forward that "knows where they are" which works in his favour. I have little doubt he'll get drafted in the 1st Round, but I don't see him as top 10 due to there being others available with a much larger hurt factor.
• Charlie Constable - Got to spend more time as a midfielder in this game with Rayner and Cerra being rested from midfield duties for much of the night. Played a solid game without ever dominating, but nevertheless is was a good game to back up his excellent performance last week.
• Lachlan Fogarty - I swear this kid flies underneath everyones radar or maybe its just me seeing stuff. This small/medium mid finds it both on the inside and the outside, but with Cerra being rested for much of the match he got the opportunity to play a little more of an inside role on Friday. Like Constable, Fogarty played a solid game without ever really dominating, but it was more than serviceable showing to back up his good performance from the week before. Would be extremely surprised if he hasn't found an AFL club to call home by the end of the second round of picks.
• Ethan Penrith - Tries hard within his capabilities, but I just don't see how he develops the weaponry to make it at AFL level. Really hasn't shown he has the ability to win his own ball in the contest during the Carnival to this point. Has good pace and his tackling is great, but that's about it.
• Joel Garner - Fair to say he found the matchup against the much taller Nathan Kreuger much more of a challenge this week. Competed hard until suffering an ankle injury in a marking contest late in the 1st Qtr. Was never really a factor after that as he hobbled around the field until 3 Qtr time before succumbing to a lack of mobility.

SA Players

• Bryce Denham - Unable to acquire many possessions up forward as the ball rarely found its way down there, Denham often found himself in the ruck against the much taller Sam Hayes where he acquitted himself quite well using his leap to great effect. Hard to make any definitive calls regarding Denham's talent as SA just don't have the fire power in the middle of the ground to get it down to him enough so he can display his wares.
• Izak Rankine - Underage small midfielder who you can add to Hill and Walsh as ones to keep an eye on for next year. Unfazed by the maelstrom going on around him, Rankine found plenty of the ball which he then distributed among his team mates with some excellent disposal. Is one of those players who seems to make time slow down when he has the ball in hand summing up his options. Has very good pace and has a Greshamesque step he uses to good effect.
• Nathan Kreuger - Surprised SA hadn't used him before this game. Very mobile KPF who has strong hands, a good leap and presents up at the ball carrier. Found himself matched up on the much shorter Garner which he exploited to good effect by taking some strong overhead marks on the lead where his opponent didn't have reach to effect the outcome. Kicked a nice goal, but like all of SA forwards the lack of supply provided him with limited opportunity to display his talents. Plays with plenty of spirit and wasn't afraid to dish it back at any of the opposition who wanted to test his mettle.
• Darcy Fogarty - Not really sure as what's going on, but something is not right here. Whether his knee is giving him issues or he's suffering from something unseen, such as OP or depression, I don't know, but I find hard to believe that a kid who's been selected to play SANFL in the seniors can't impact a game at this level. Wasn't used in the midfield at all during this game despite SA's obvious weakness in this area, which only elevates my suspicions regarding his fitness.
• Stefan Giro - Small hard-working 175cm midfielder who is just an honest toiler that gives his all, but the poor bastard must have wondered what he'd done wrong in another life after Friday's game. Initially found himself matched up against the 189cm Stephenson who was just too tall, too fast, too talented, too big, too strong and too everything else for him compete against. The coaching staff showed him some mercy by shifting him onto a HBF only find that Rayner took it upon himself swap the matchups around so that he was on Giro and then proceeded to tear him a new arseh*le as well.

A Metro Player To Keep An Eye On.

• Joel Grace - A real big lump of a lad who stands at 199cm and represents Northern Knights at TAC Cup level. Played as a 2nd ruck against Vic Country at Punt Rd and both Arr0w and I really liked some of the things this kid did, particularly his marking. Gets to the right positions and his kicking seemed sound. Was quite surprised he wasn't given another game this week based upon that effort, especially given the omission of the King Bros for this game. Will be interesting to see if he gets recalled for the game against the Allies at Skilled Stadium. If SOS wanted to spend a later pick on a project ruck this kid could be an option, but for now, lets just see how he progresses through the rest of the TAC Cup season.

Note: Will fix any typos later - cheers.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Do you think we'd be a chance of drafting Charlie Drake if we keep our pick?

Your profile picture disturbs me!

 

[ParapMarkets]

So if we had pick 3 and Stephenson was available you'd be happy to take him? I really like him because he has that mecurial talent/x factor that we lack, besides Curnow and SPS in the future, however we also need in build a solid midfield brigade of elite talent, which I can't see Stephenson playing that role. He strikes me as more a half forward or wingman who will flash in and out the game. In other words do we go the reliable accumulator midfielder or the highly talented outside jet?

There is a very real chance we won't be bottom 4.

We have quite a few winnable games ahead

we will be bottom 4

 

[ParapMarkets]

Well happy to go out on a limb, I think LDU might drop out of the top 6

Disposal is poor, work-rate is only average.

Who do you see as top 3 at the moment?

 

[katmanblue]

Commentators were saying we had Penrith in one our development squads. Dunno his age.

Played as a permanent back pocket. Tackles well, gets it often enough, lacks footskills .......

We already have a bloke named Buckley

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Arr0w]

Who do you see as top 3 at the moment?

Really way too early to tell, especially this year. Anyone that has completed a phantom draft, would be constantly amending the rankings over the next 2 months.

The 3 that I believe will continue to improve and press their claims are Cerra, O'Brien, Constable

Sutherland would be up there if he chooses AFL

Others in contentions, would be considered flankers unless they have sustained output in the midfield, such as Rayner & Stephenson

 

[Blue__Balls]

we will be bottom 4

Had a play around with the Ladder Predictor this morning, and I've got us finishing around 13-14th with three or four wins to come (Bulldogs, Brisbane, Essendon, Hawthorn).

Could just as easily lose those four games of course, but 3 out of the 4 seems achievable. Doggies are well of their previous form and are bringing nowhere near the pressure they were known for last season. Brisbane are always a tough matchup for us (especially up there), but we should be in that game up to our necks. Essendon are starting to slow down, which is natural given the year off half their players had - and Jones is going to shit all over Daniher. Hawthorn look good in patches, but I think we're playing their possession gamestyle better than they are this year.

 

[Arr0w]

Had a play around with the Ladder Predictor this morning, and I've got us finishing around 13-14th with three or four wins to come (Bulldogs, Brisbane, Essendon, Hawthorn).

Could just as easily lose those four games of course, but 3 out of the 4 seems achievable. Doggies are well of their previous form and are bringing nowhere near the pressure they were known for last season. Brisbane are always a tough matchup for us (especially up there), but we should be in that game up to our necks. Essendon are starting to slow down, which is natural given the year off half their players had - and Jones is going to shit all over Daniher. Hawthorn look good in patches, but I think we're playing their possession gamestyle better than they are this year.

Your predictions are fair and reasonable given current circumstances, especially with the inequality of the draw. The rule of thumb I generally use, around this time of the year, to determine bottom 4 sides, is the amount of % each side has. That being the case, I believe we will comfortably finish in the bottom 4

 

[HBF]

Leaning towards Rayner now.
I'm flip flopping more than ever, which I think represents such an even spread inside the top 10.
Still wouldn't say no to LDU though.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Leaning towards Rayner now.
I'm flip flopping more than ever, which I think represents such an even spread inside the top 10.
Still wouldn't say no to LDU though.

If it is an even spread, then the player we might get at 3 may be as good as the player we get at 8 ... i.e no standout. In that case I'd probably use that pick in a Kelly trade.

Rayner does look good. Will he be gone though?

 

[HBF]

If it is an even spread, then the player we might get at 3 may be as good as the player we get at 8 ... i.e no standout. In that case I'd probably use that pick in a Kelly trade.

Rayner does look good. Will he be gone though?

Hard to know, although I expect us to have pick 2-3 by the end of round 23.

 

[Pafloyul]

Your profile picture disturbs me!

It was a joke after Donald █████ 'triggered' another poster. Just call it another chapter in the Andrew Bolt Saga. I'll change it again.