Analysis 2017 vs 2014

[RussellEbertHandball]

In 2017 we achieved
* Won 14 games lost 8
* kicked 313.290 = 2,168 let oppo score 239.237 =1,671
* 2nd highest points for, equal 2nd highest goals kicked, 2nd lowest points against and goals against
* percentage 129.74%
* Highest % 1st Adelaide 135.98%, then Port, then Sydney 126.77%, no one else got 120%+
* teams above us, Adelaide and Geelong 15 wins 1 draw, Richmond 15 wins, GWS 14 wins 2 draws
* Results at Adelaide Oval 8 wins 4 losses inc both showdowns
* Results on the road 6 wins 4 losses


In 2014 we achieved
* Won 14 games lost 8
* kicked 314.296 = 2,180 let oppo score 243.220 =1,678
* 2nd highest points for, 2nd highest goals kicked, 3rd lowest points against and goals against
* percentage 129.92%
* Highest % Sydney 142.88%, Hawthorn 140.78, Freo 130.40% then Port no one else got 120%+
* teams above us Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong (113.77%) 17 wins and Freo 16 wins
Geelong and Freo went out in straight sets. North Melbourne, like Sydney this year, also had 14 wins.
* Results at Adelaide Oval 9 wins 3 losses inc away showdown
* Results on the road 5 wins 5 losses

2017 Results against top 4 Adelaide, Geelong, GWS and Richmond
Home Adel -17, Rich -13 Adel -84* away showdown
Away GWS -31, Gee -2,

2017 Results against the middle class Sydney, Essendon, West Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda, Bulldogs, Hawthorn
Home WCE -10, Haw +51, StK +2
Away Syd +28, Ess -70, WCE +32, Melb -28, WB +17

2017 Results against cellar dewellers Collingwood, Fremantle, North, Carlton, Gold Coast, Brisbane
Home Freo +89, Carl +90, Bris +40, NM +70, Coll +27, GC +115
Away Bris +83, GC +72, Coll +31


2014 Results against top 4 Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong, and Freo
Home Freo +18, Haw +14, Syd -26
Away Syd -4, Freo -8

2014 Results against the middle class North, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast
Home Adel +54, Gee +40, Adel -23* Ess -2
Away North -7, WCE +14, Rich -20, Coll -6, GC +9

2014 Results against cellar dwellers Carlton, Bulldogs, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda
Home Bris +113, StK +70 WB +72, Melb +3 Carl +103
Away Carl +33, GWS +35, Melb +20,


The big obvious difference between the 2 years is the streak at the start of the year in 2014. We went win on road v Carlton, win first showdown at new AO, then lose to North at Docklands just by 7pts, and then win 8 straight to go to a 10-1 record. This year our streaks have been 2,2,2,2 and 3. But we have only lost 2 in a row once to Adel rd 3 and GWS in rd 4. And only twice when you looked at our last 5 games would you see only 2 wins in that streak of 5, the other time because of the bye effect.

In 2014 we lost 3 in a row Rd's 15,16,17 and between Rd's 15 to 20 inclusive we lost 5 of the 6 and we only beat Melbourne by 3 pts thanks to a great set shot from Schulz on the boundary line 50m out very late in the game.

In 2014 apart from the massive win against Carlton in Rd 22, we limped into finals winning only 3 of the last 8 games Melbourne per above and GC in the storm by 9 pts in Rd 21. This year after Rd 17, the early bye caught up with us and our contested ball and clearance numbers dropped away but we have won 4 of the last 6 games and 6 of the last 8.

The other big difference is we didn't get smashed in 2014 like the 2 games against Essendon and away Showdown in 2017. In 2014 our biggest loss was to 26 pts to Sydney at AO in rd 20. In 2017 after the 2 shellacking mentioned above our next biggest loss has been 31 pts to GWS in canberra when we ran completey out of gas in the last quarter when we lead by 4pts at 3/4 time and only kicked 1 pt in the last quarter.

The rest of the results are similar.

In 2014 we won 2 close games against top 4 sides at home, Freo we got on top of in the last quarter and the Hawks we had that big 1st quarter but they came hard at us after half time and we hung. This year bad goal kicking at critical moments saw us lose two close games to the top 4 sides of Adelaide and Richmond.

Our nemesis sides since the flag have been Sydney and Geelong. In 2014 at the SCG we played some magnificent footy and it took Buddy's most brilliant to beat us kicking the only 3 goals the swans kicked in the last quarter and one was a from 75m out that bounced just in front of the goal square and bounced thru. This year it was bloody Dangerfield at Kardinia Park kicked that goal but had a brilliant last quarter, racked up 66 or so super coach points. Plus the bloody Dixon play on set shot for goal fiasco. Away from home against the top 4 sides its been 1 poor quarter. In 2014 a very tired Lobbe in Rd 23 was smashed by Sandilands in the 3rd quarter and saw them kick 9 in a row during the 3rd and 4th quarter then we rallied to lose by 8 pts. Against GWS with no Ryder, Mumford smashed Jacko and they scored 5 unanswered goals as Patton dominated up forward in the last quarter when we only kicked a point. The only real difference has been the shellacking Adelaide gave us in the away showdown a few weeks ago

The results against the middle class sides have been familiar. The only real difference was the shellacking Essendon gave us in the middle of this season. However, we had one extra win on the road and I reckon we played better quality sides in that group including Sydney and the defending premiers.

The results against the cellar dwellers have also been very familiar. We smashed everyone at home both years, except for Melbourne in 2014 when we were in the middle of a slump and just got up by 3 pts. Away from home we had two games we smashed the cellar dwellers and a mid sized win in 2017 compared to 3 mid size wins in 2014.

I reckon we go into this years finals relatively in better shape than 2014 and probably facing a bit less opposition. We had plenty of young kids playing in 2014 just like we will in 2017.

Play a proper tall forward line of Dixon, Marshall and Trengove with Ryder spending some time up there ( as opposed to Schulz and Hoff + Lobbe the lone ruck in 2014) and I can see us making it to the last Saturday in September, especially if we avoid both Adelaide and Sydney until the GF.

 

[Coobk001]

Without much statistical backing I feel like the major difference between 2014 & 2017 is the precision we move the ball with and execute in front of goal. Pretty sure in 2014 we were in the top 2 for goals scored from D50. I highly doubt we'd be in the top 10 now.

I feel we miss a deadly sharpshooter like Schulz who helped us get a lot of reward for effort. When he converted unexpected chances.
Our rebound from defence was crisp and clean more often than not, some of our ball movement chains were just brilliant, and ultimately our ability to punish the opposition on the counter was outstanding.

Now we just dont seem extremely efficient in front of goal at all.
We are generally extremely scrappy with our ball movement, we rarely punish teams on the counter, and the inability to hurt teams on the counter means our ability to turn the tide in games, or keep scoreboard pressure on the opposition when they're on top, is greatly diminished.

Inside 50's Average
2014 - 56.2
2017 - 59.1

Scoring Average
2014 - 14.5 G, 13.6 B
2017 - 14.2 G, 13.2 B

So for more entries we score less. A simple stat but does seem to indicate we aren't as efficient.

I see our trend line as having been-
In first half of 2014 we were a side that was a counter attack and elite transition footy team. We were then slowed up and games turned into a clearance and contested ball slog, where we weren't that great. It took nearly 3 years to finally address that contested ball/clearance issue and once again in 2017 we're back in the top half of the comp in those areas. However in the mean time, whilst we've battled in that area we have ended up turning our gameplan into more of a territory battle, and as a repercussion I believe we've lost our ability to transition with speed and effective ball use.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Without much statistical backing I feel like the major difference between 2014 & 2017 is the precision we move the ball with and execute in front of goal. Pretty sure in 2014 we were in the top 2 for goals scored from D50. I highly doubt we'd be in the top 10 now.

I feel we miss a deadly sharpshooter like Schulz who helped us get a lot of reward for effort. When he converted unexpected chances.
Our rebound from defence was crisp and clean more often than not, some of our ball movement chains were just brilliant, and ultimately our ability to punish the opposition on the counter was outstanding.

Now we just dont seem extremely efficient in front of goal at all.
We are generally extremely scrappy with our ball movement, we rarely punish teams on the counter, and the inability to hurt teams on the counter means our ability to turn the tide in games, or keep scoreboard pressure on the opposition when they're on top, is greatly diminished.

Inside 50's Average
2014 - 56.2
2017 - 59.1

Scoring Average
2014 - 14.5 G, 13.6 B
2017 - 14.2 G, 13.2 B

So for more entries we score less. A simple stat but does seem to indicate we aren't as efficient.

I see our trend line as having been-
In first half of 2014 we were a side that was a counter attack and elite transition footy team. We were then slowed up and games turned into a clearance and contested ball slog, where we weren't that great. It took nearly 3 years to finally address that contested ball/clearance issue and once again in 2017 we're back in the top half of the comp in those areas. However in the mean time, whilst we've battled in that area we have ended up turning our gameplan into more of a territory battle, and as a repercussion I believe we've lost our ability to transition with speed and effective ball use.

When we were 10-1 or 10-2 in 2014 I can't remember which one, the AFL put up mid season graphics and I remember posting them into a thread and those graphics showed we had the most inside 50's up to that part of the season and we had the 8th highest conversion of inside 50's to goal. Its always been a problem since 2014.

Dixon is a sharp shooter but he had some iffy games up to China with his set shots. He has fixed that up. Wingard has dropped off since 2015 when between 2013-15 he was going at 75% conversion for set shots. Sam Gray and Robbie Gray probably make up the majority of the difference over the 2 years.

 

[Coobk001]

I really look forward to Marshall developing, he is an elite shot on goal and will be supremely handy in a couple years.

 

[Interstater]

More numbers to add to the pot.
I50 - ours
R50 - opponents
Goals and Behinds are the integer, i.e. not rounded.

One observation: Eagles average 9 less I50's than us and average 1 less goal.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

View attachment 409037

More numbers to add to the pot.
Goals and Behinds are the integer, i.e. not rounded.

What is R50 made up of? Is it as simple as the # times the oppo go inside 50 less number of scoring shots? If so it doesn't really indicate if the oppo get a lot of inside 50's and we are good at getting it out or they get a normal number of times and we do a good job of limiting their scoring .

If its the simple calculation per above, then our oppo R50 average against us is 59.1-14.2-13.2 = 31.7

 

[Interstater]

I interpret Opponents R50 as the number of times the opposition takes the ball out of our 50.

I cant find the details on footywire though.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2017&type=OA&sby=30

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

View attachment 409037

More numbers to add to the pot.
I50 - ours
R50 - opponents
Goals and Behinds are the integer, i.e. not rounded.

One observation: Eagles average 9 less I50's than us and average 1 less goal.

They have Kennedy - a great leading forward - we have nothing like him.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Our gameplan is quite different really.

Both plans rely on turnovers, but in 2014 we let the opponents enter their forward 50, won the ball there then used our superior speed and fitness (as well as the overhead marking of Brad Ebert) to slingshot over the top and take easy shots. When we moved the ball slowly we tended to get caught in low percentage positions, but Wingard and Schulz just nailed every bloody shot anyway.

That gameplan became obsolete in early 2015 when teams just started sitting 2 loose intercept markers behind the ball at all times so we couldn't slingshot over the top every time.

In 2017 we play a manic high press and force turnovers inside our forward half to generate repeat forward entries. We topped the league in I50s this year. Our issue has been turning those forward entries into scores, predominantly because our forwardline has, as usual, been a hot mess where we rely too much on individual brilliance and not enough on a solid system.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Our gameplan is quite different really.

Both plans rely on turnovers, but in 2014 we let the opponents enter their forward 50, won the ball there then used our superior speed and fitness (as well as the overhead marking of Brad Ebert) to slingshot over the top and take easy shots. When we moved the ball slowly we tended to get caught in low percentage positions, but Wingard and Schulz just nailed every bloody shot anyway.

That gameplan became obsolete in early 2015 when teams just started sitting 2 loose intercept markers behind the ball at all times so we couldn't slingshot over the top every time.

In 2017 we play a manic high press and force turnovers inside our forward half to generate repeat forward entries. We topped the league in I50s this year. Our issue has been turning those forward entries into scores, predominantly because our forwardline has, as usual, been a hot mess where we rely too much on individual brilliance and not enough on a solid system.

Different game plan, but same net result.

 

[Interstater]

Some numbers taken from the OP

Average Margin per game

Against Top 4
2014: -1 (-6 from 5 games)
2017: -29 (-147 from 5 games)

Middle Class
2014: +7 (+59 from 9 games)
2017: +3 (+22 from 8 games)

Cellar Dwellers
2014: +56 (+449 from 8 games)
2017: +69 (+617 from 9 games)

 

[TeeKray]

Funny how our for and against numbers are almost identical to 2014 - +12 on the offence and -7 on the defence (ie a tiny difference in the context of a 22 game season).