AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

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demon_fanatic said:
Oh wow the PC police in Force,didn't know a like reflected that:) mayb i like the opinion he will poll well
Click to expand...
But you just said you didn’t think he would get 24... why would you like someone’s opinion that he will poll 25+? You wouldn’t be back peddling now because his odds have massively blown out, would you?
 
demon_fanatic said:
Just what I think will happen due to cripps being such a one man show and around the ball constantly
Click to expand...

But why does that mean the umpires will suddenly start rewarding good players in bad teams?
 

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Sabbathen said:
But you just said you didn’t think he would get 24... why would you like someone’s opinion that he will poll 25+? You wouldn’t be back peddling now because his odds have massively blown out, would you?
Click to expand...
wow so petty, i dont think he will get 24-25 just under but i like the opinions of people who think he will do well... i just cant see him going under 18-19 like people think. hope i am wrong as i said.. got loads on dusty to top 3 it
 
Here are my numbers....

Top 20:

1 Mitchell 28.6
2 Gawn 24.3
3-5 Cripps, Grundy, Martin 21.9
6 Beams 20.0
7 Yeo 19.4
8 Oliver 18.9
9 Macrae 18.6
10 Fyfe 18.1
11 Dangerfield 18.0
12 Gaff 17.7
13 Sidebottom 16.8
14 Heppell 16.4
15 Higgins 16.2
16 Laird 15.9
17 Ablett 15.0
18 Whitfield 14.2
19 Brayshaw 14.0
20 Coniglio 13.8


Teams:

Adelaide: Laird 15.9, Crouch 11.5, Gibbs 7.6
Brisbane: Beams 20.0, Zorko 7.4
Carlton: Cripps 21.9, Simpson 5.3
Collingwood: Grundy 21.9, Sidebottom 16.8, Pendlebury 13.7, De Goey 12.2
Essendon: Heppell 16.4, Merrett 13.0, Smith 10.9
Fremantle: Fyfe 18.1, Neale 13.1
Geelong: Dangerfield 18.0, Ablett 15.0, Selwood 13.7
Gold Coast: Young 4.0, Lyons 3.2, Swallow 3.1, Lynch 3.0
GWS: Whitfield 14.2, Coniglio 13.8, Kelly 13.5, Ward 10.9
Hawthorn: Mitchell 28.6, Breust 8.7, Sicily 8.3, Gunston 8.1, O'Meara 8.0
Melbourne: Gawn 24.3, Oliver 18.9, Brayshaw 14.0
North Melbourne: Higgins 16.2, Cunnington 11.7
Port Adelaide: Gray 12.6, Wines 11.7
Richmond: Martin 21.9, Cotching 10.6, Caddy 8.6, Lambert 8.5, Riewoldt 8.4
St Kilda: Steven 12.5, Ross 7.5
Sydney: Kennedy 13.0, Franklin 12.2, Heeney 11.4, Parker 9.9, Lloyd 9.1
West Coast: Yeo 19.4, Gaff 17.7
Western Bulldogs: Macrae 18.6, Bontempelli 11.1
 
May as well chuck my count in here! Completed week by week as the season went on

Top 20 Leaderboard:
32 - Mitchell
24 - Beams
23 - Gawn, Gaff*
22 - Macrae
21 - Martin, Yeo, Oliver
20 - Cripps
19 - Fyfe*, Dangerfield, Coniglio
18 - Grundy, Sidebottom, Heppell, Merrett
17 - JPK, Selwood, Brayshaw
16 - Laird

Round 5 leader:
9 - Coniglio, Sidebottom, Fyfe
8 - Mitchell, Martin, Laird

Round 10 leader:
17 - Fyfe, Macrae
14 - Mitchell
13 - Gaff


Teams:

Adelaide - 65 votes
16 - Laird
11 - Crouch
9 - Gibbs

Brisbane - 51 votes
24 - Beams
10 - Zorko
6 - Martin

Carlton - 35 votes
20 - Cripps
6 - Simpson
4 - E.Curnow

Collingwood - 92 votes
18 - Sidebottom, Grundy
13 - Pendlebury
11 - De Goey, Treloar

Essendon - 70 votes
18 - Heppell, Merrett
13 - Smith

Fremantle - 56 votes
19 - Fyfe
15 - Neale
5 - Walters

Gold Coast - 29 votes
5 - Fiorini
4 - Witts, Lyons, Swallow
3 - Young, Lynch

Geelong - 91 votes
19 - Dangerfield
17 - Selwood
15 - Ablett

GWS - 73 votes
19 - Coniglio
15 - Kelly
13 - Whitfield

Hawthorn - 85 votes
32 - Mitchell
10 - O’Meara
9 - Sicily, Breust

Melbourne - 91 votes
23 - Gawn
21 - Oliver
17 - Brayshaw

North Melbourne - 61 votes
15 - Higgins
11 - Cunnington
8 - Brown

Port Adelaide - 68 votes
14 - Gray
13 - Wines
7 - Westhoff

Richmond - 74 votes
21 - Martin
11 - Lambert
10 - Cotchin

St Kilda - 35
11 - Steven
10 - Ross
5 - Steele

Sydney - 74 votes
17 - JPK
14 - Franklin
11 - Parker

West Coast
23 - Gaff
21 - Yeo
11 - Redden

Western Bulldogs
22 - Macrae
11 - Bontempelli
6 - Hunter
 
jamesmcgee_46 said:
May as well chuck my count in here! Completed week by week as the season went on

Top 20 Leaderboard:
32 - Mitchell
24 - Beams
23 - Gawn, Gaff*
22 - Macrae
21 - Martin, Yeo, Oliver
20 - Cripps
19 - Fyfe*, Dangerfield, Coniglio
18 - Grundy, Sidebottom, Heppell, Merrett
17 - JPK, Selwood, Brayshaw
16 - Laird

Round 5 leader:
9 - Coniglio, Sidebottom, Fyfe
8 - Mitchell, Martin, Laird

Round 10 leader:
17 - Fyfe, Macrae
14 - Mitchell
13 - Gaff


Teams:

Adelaide - 65 votes
16 - Laird
11 - Crouch
9 - Gibbs

Brisbane - 51 votes
24 - Beams
10 - Zorko
6 - Martin

Carlton - 35 votes
20 - Cripps
6 - Simpson
4 - E.Curnow

Collingwood - 92 votes
18 - Sidebottom, Grundy
13 - Pendlebury
11 - De Goey, Treloar

Essendon - 70 votes
18 - Heppell, Merrett
13 - Smith

Fremantle - 56 votes
19 - Fyfe
15 - Neale
5 - Walters

Gold Coast - 29 votes
5 - Fiorini
4 - Witts, Lyons, Swallow
3 - Young, Lynch

Geelong - 91 votes
19 - Dangerfield
17 - Selwood
15 - Ablett

GWS - 73 votes
19 - Coniglio
15 - Kelly
13 - Whitfield

Hawthorn - 85 votes
32 - Mitchell
10 - O’Meara
9 - Sicily, Breust

Melbourne - 91 votes
23 - Gawn
21 - Oliver
17 - Brayshaw

North Melbourne - 61 votes
15 - Higgins
11 - Cunnington
8 - Brown

Port Adelaide - 68 votes
14 - Gray
13 - Wines
7 - Westhoff

Richmond - 74 votes
21 - Martin
11 - Lambert
10 - Cotchin

St Kilda - 35
11 - Steven
10 - Ross
5 - Steele

Sydney - 74 votes
17 - JPK
14 - Franklin
11 - Parker

West Coast
23 - Gaff
21 - Yeo
11 - Redden

Western Bulldogs
22 - Macrae
11 - Bontempelli
6 - Hunter
Click to expand...
This

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
tab have a handicap market

mitchell 0
martin +3
gawn +3
cripps +4
grundy +5
beams +7
oliver +7
dangerfield +8
macrea +8
yeo +8
coniglio +11
higgins +11
heppell +12
kennedy +12
laird +12

all pay $12

oliver +7/heppell +12 are what i would lean to
 
Is a gurantee return of 11% worth putting money on?

I can see a few opportunities to dutch bets across bookies still.

just dont know if $500 down for $55 profit is worth it.

would you guys get on those kind of ROI or not bother
 

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the_big_sav said:
tab have a handicap market

mitchell 0
martin +3
gawn +3
cripps +4
grundy +5
beams +7
oliver +7
dangerfield +8
macrea +8
yeo +8
coniglio +11
higgins +11
heppell +12
kennedy +12
laird +12

all pay $12

oliver +7/heppell +12 are what i would lean to
Click to expand...
Beams the only one with any appeal to me
 
jack 23 said:
thanks

whats lowest you'd go ROI %

found one with 16%
Click to expand...

Probably like 20% with a week to wait before settlement. Depends if you are going to use the money for other bets though. If its just extra money that you were never going to turnover in that time anyway then yeah just take 16%
 
My leaderboard after RD 23:

1. Tom Mitchell 30
2. Dustin Martin 23
3. Max Gawn 22
4. Dayne Beams 21
5. Clayton Oliver, Elliot Yeo, Jack Macrae 20
8. Patrick Dangerfield, Patrick Cripps, Zach Merret 18
10. Nat Fyfe, Josh P Kennedy, Andrew Gaff, Angus Brayshaw, Brody Grundy 17
15. Gary Ablett 16
16. Lachie Whitfield, Steele Sidebottom, Dyson Heppel, Josh Kelly, Rory Laird
21. Joel Selwood 14

Leader after ROUND 5:
Mitchell, Fyfe, Martin 8
Sidebottom, Ben Brown 7

Leader after ROUND 10:
Macrae 16
Fyfe 15
Mitchell 14
Cotchin, JPK 10

Team Leaders:
ADEL (60 votes)
Rory Laird 15
Matt Crouch 10
Bryce Gibbs 9

BL (49 votes)
Dayne Beams 21
Dayne Zorko 9
Stefan Martin 6

CARL (33 votes)
Patrick Cripps 18
Kade Simpson 6
Dale Thomas 3

COLL (88 votes)
Brodie Grundy 17
Steele Sidebottom 15
Scott Pendlebury 13
Jordan de Goey 12

ESS (69 votes)
Zach Merrett 18
Dyson Heppell 15
Devon Smith 12

FRE (54 votes)
Nat Fyfe 17
Lachie Neale 11
David Mundy 7

GCFC (30 votes)
David Swallow 6
Brayden Fiorini 5
Jarryd Lyons 4

GEEL (92 votes)
Patrick Dangerfield 18
Gary Ablett 16
Joel Selwood 14
Tim Kelly 10
Tom Hawkins 10

GWS (72 votes)
Lachie Whitfield 15
Josh Kelly 15
Stephen Coniglio 12
Callan Ward 9

HAW (89 votes)
Tom Mitchell 30
Jack Gunston 11
Luke Breust 10
Jaeger O'Meara 9

MELB (90 votes)
Max Gawn 22
Clayton Oliver 20
Angus Brayshaw 17
Jesse Hogan 12

NMFC (68 votes)
Shaun Higgins 13
Ben Brown 11
Ben Cunnington 9
Jack Ziebell 7
Jarrad Waite 7

PORT (66 votes)
Ollie Wines 12
Robbie Gray 12
Chad Wingard 7
Justin Westhoff 6
Jared Polec 6

RICH (79 votes)
Dustin Martin 23
Trent Cotchin 10
Jack Riewoldt 9
Kane Lambert 9
Josh Caddy 8

STK (33 votes)
Jack Steven 10
Sebastian Ross 5
Jade Gresham 5
Jack Steele 5

SYD (75 votes)
Josh P. Kennedy 17
Lance Franklin 13
Jake Lloyd 11
Luke Parker 10
Isaac Heeney 9

WB (54 votes)
Jack Macrae 20
Marcus Bontempelli 10
Lachie Hunter 9
Josh Dunkley 5

WCE (87 votes)
Elliot Yeo 20
Andrew Gaff 17
Jack Darling 10
Jack Redden 10
Shannon Hurn 7
 
seppo_222 said:
My leaderboard after RD 23:

1. Tom Mitchell 30
2. Dustin Martin 23
3. Max Gawn 22
4. Dayne Beams 21
5. Clayton Oliver, Elliot Yeo, Jack Macrae 20
8. Patrick Dangerfield, Patrick Cripps, Zach Merret 18
10. Nat Fyfe, Josh P Kennedy, Andrew Gaff, Angus Brayshaw, Brody Grundy 17
15. Gary Ablett 16
16. Lachie Whitfield, Steele Sidebottom, Dyson Heppel, Josh Kelly, Rory Laird
21. Joel Selwood 14

Leader after ROUND 5:
Mitchell, Fyfe, Martin 8
Sidebottom, Ben Brown 7

Leader after ROUND 10:
Macrae 16
Fyfe 15
Mitchell 14
Cotchin, JPK 10

Team Leaders:
ADEL (60 votes)
Rory Laird 15
Matt Crouch 10
Bryce Gibbs 9

BL (49 votes)
Dayne Beams 21
Dayne Zorko 9
Stefan Martin 6

CARL (33 votes)
Patrick Cripps 18
Kade Simpson 6
Dale Thomas 3

COLL (88 votes)
Brodie Grundy 17
Steele Sidebottom 15
Scott Pendlebury 13
Jordan de Goey 12

ESS (69 votes)
Zach Merrett 18
Dyson Heppell 15
Devon Smith 12

FRE (54 votes)
Nat Fyfe 17
Lachie Neale 11
David Mundy 7

GCFC (30 votes)
David Swallow 6
Brayden Fiorini 5
Jarryd Lyons 4

GEEL (92 votes)
Patrick Dangerfield 18
Gary Ablett 16
Joel Selwood 14
Tim Kelly 10
Tom Hawkins 10

GWS (72 votes)
Lachie Whitfield 15
Josh Kelly 15
Stephen Coniglio 12
Callan Ward 9

HAW (89 votes)
Tom Mitchell 30
Jack Gunston 11
Luke Breust 10
Jaeger O'Meara 9

MELB (90 votes)
Max Gawn 22
Clayton Oliver 20
Angus Brayshaw 17
Jesse Hogan 12

NMFC (68 votes)
Shaun Higgins 13
Ben Brown 11
Ben Cunnington 9
Jack Ziebell 7
Jarrad Waite 7

PORT (66 votes)
Ollie Wines 12
Robbie Gray 12
Chad Wingard 7
Justin Westhoff 6
Jared Polec 6

RICH (79 votes)
Dustin Martin 23
Trent Cotchin 10
Jack Riewoldt 9
Kane Lambert 9
Josh Caddy 8

STK (33 votes)
Jack Steven 10
Sebastian Ross 5
Jade Gresham 5
Jack Steele 5

SYD (75 votes)
Josh P. Kennedy 17
Lance Franklin 13
Jake Lloyd 11
Luke Parker 10
Isaac Heeney 9

WB (54 votes)
Jack Macrae 20
Marcus Bontempelli 10
Lachie Hunter 9
Josh Dunkley 5

WCE (87 votes)
Elliot Yeo 20
Andrew Gaff 17
Jack Darling 10
Jack Redden 10
Shannon Hurn 7
Click to expand...
Nice work. Only queries from me are on Beams, Coniglio, Neale and Gaff, I feel youve underpolled them a touch, Coniglio in particular.
 
My numbers:

1. Tom Mitchell - 29
2. Jack Macrae/Dustin Martin - 25
3. Elliot Yeo/Dayne Beams - 24
4. Cripps/Oliver/Gaff - 23
6. Max Gawn - 21
7. Nathan Fyfe - 20
8. Zach Merrett - 19
9. Sidebottom/Coniglio/Heppell - 18
10. Selwood/Laird - 17
11. Kennedy/Brayshaw - 16
12. Neale/Ablett/Kelly/Higgins - 15
 
demon_fanatic said:
wow so petty, i dont think he will get 24-25 just under but i like the opinions of people who think he will do well... i just cant see him going under 18-19 like people think. hope i am wrong as i said.. got loads on dusty to top 3 it
Click to expand...
Don't be so precious when someone disagrees with you.

Here you go, Cripps over 21.5 votes is now $2.45 on TopSport... put your house on it.
it was $1.90 early last week...
 
X_box_X said:
There were only 11 examples of players polling votes last year in matches that were lost by 40+ points.

My evidence from last year shows that Brisbane players received the most amount of votes in big losses. In fact, six of the 11 examples of players polling votes in 40+ losses were Brisbane players. Beams polled three votes from those matches.

My evidence also shows that Sam Hay (3), Curtis Deboy (3), Matt Nicholls (2), Andrew Stephens (2), Rob O'Gorman (2) and Hayden Gavine (2) umpired in matches multiple times where players in these losses were awarded votes. Hay, Deboy, Nicholls and Stephens seem to be the umpires responsible for this more than O'Gorman and Gavine, as the latter two umpired both of their games with one of the other four.

2017:
Round 1:
Murphy 1 vote - Carlton lose by 43 (Hay, Nicolls, Stevic)

Round 4:
Martin 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 52 (Mollison, Ryan, Ryan)

Round 10:
Newnes 1 vote - St Kilda lose by 40 (Hay, Meridith, Findlay)
Beams 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 45 (O'Gorman, Stephens, Chamberlain)

Round 13:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 40 (Margetts, Deboy, Stephens, Hay)

Round 16:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 85 (Gavine, Hay, McInerney)

Round 19:
Beams 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 68 (O'Gorman, Dalgleish, Deboy)

Round 20:
Menegola 1 vote - Geelong lose by 46 (Donlon, Nicholls, Hosking)
Ziebell 1 vote - North lose by 64 (Deboy, Gavine, Pannell)

Round 23:
Rich 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 51 (Foot, Jeffery, Wallace)
Ward 1 vote - GWS lose by 55 (Meredith, Schmitt, McInerney)

So where does Cripps fit into all of this?

Round 5: I predicted him to poll three votes in a 10-point loss. Sam Hay and Rob O'Gorman umpired in this match.
Round 6: I predicted him to poll two votes in a 21-point loss. Matt Nicholls umpired in this match.
Round 23: Stephens umpired in this match.

There were also a couple of the six umpires I mentioned above who umpired in matches that Cripps played well in big losses, so it will be interesting to see how this stacks up.

I'd be interested in going back a couple of more seasons and analysing this sort of data when I get more time.

Eleni Glouftsis also umpired a couple of Cripps' big matches in big losses (where I have predicted possible votes). She is an untested source, but my gut feel is she may have more of a heart than most male umpires in being fair to dominant players in a side that loses by a large margin.

25+ votes might be a stretch, but there is no way I'd be backing him to poll fewer than 19.5 votes like some are predicting.
Click to expand...
2016

ROUND 2:
Gray 1 vote - Port lose by 58 (Donlon, Chamberlain, Wallace)

ROUND 4:
Cotchin 1 vote - Richmond lose by 68 (Stevic, Hosking, Fleer)

ROUND 5:
Wines 1 vote - Port lose by 48 (Dalgleish, Hosking, Kamolins)
Riewoldt 1 vote - St Kilda lose by 47 (Harris, Fleer, McInerney)

ROUND 6:
Treloar 2 votes - Pies lose by 62 (Dalgleish, O'Gorman, Jeffery)

ROUND 8:
Neale 3 votes - Freo lose by 41 (Edwards, Pannell, Mollison)

ROUND 13:
Robinson 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 49 (Hay, Schmitt, Meredith, Harris)

ROUND 18:
Martin 1 vote - Richmond lose by 70 (Brown, Hay, Kamolins)

ROUND 21:
Walters 1 vote - Freo lose by 72 (Farmer, Dalgleish, Stephens)

ROUND 22:
Neale 1 vote - Freo lose by 92 (O'Gorman, Fleer, Jeffery, Rowe)

Fleer x3 games
Dalgleish x3 games
Jeffery x2 games
Hay x2 games
Kamolins x2 games
Hosking x2 games
Harris x2 games
O'Gorman x2 games
 
X_box_X said:
2016

ROUND 2:
Gray 1 vote - Port lose by 58 (Donlon, Chamberlain, Wallace)

ROUND 4:
Cotchin 1 vote - Richmond lose by 68 (Stevic, Hosking, Fleer)

ROUND 5:
Wines 1 vote - Port lose by 48 (Dalgleish, Hosking, Kamolins)
Riewoldt 1 vote - St Kilda lose by 47 (Harris, Fleer, McInerney)

ROUND 6:
Treloar 2 votes - Pies lose by 62 (Dalgleish, O'Gorman, Jeffery)

ROUND 8:
Neale 3 votes - Freo lose by 41 (Edwards, Pannell, Mollison)

ROUND 13:
Robinson 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 49 (Hay, Schmitt, Meredith, Harris)

ROUND 18:
Martin 1 vote - Richmond lose by 70 (Brown, Hay, Kamolins)

ROUND 21:
Walters 1 vote - Freo lose by 72 (Farmer, Dalgleish, Stephens)

ROUND 22:
Neale 1 vote - Freo lose by 92 (O'Gorman, Fleer, Jeffery, Rowe)

Fleer x3 games
Dalgleish x3 games
Jeffery x2 games
Hay x2 games
Kamolins x2 games
Hosking x2 games
Harris x2 games
O'Gorman x2 games
Click to expand...

Good trends for my bet of Cripps to poll the most 1s :thumbsu:
 
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