AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

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NYRB said:
TAB allow parlaying up to 5 Team Handicap votes




Highlighted in yellow are the ones in yellow I like and odds.


View attachment 1811965


Done a treble, four-fold and five-fold for : Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, GWS. Five fold pays for those 5 pays 3253.25


Done a treble, four-fold, and five-fold for: Gold Coast , Melbourne, Richmond, St.Kilda, West Coast. Five fold for those 5 pays 6142.50
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Just a bit of outcome , it ended up i won on the 2nd group.

But overall:

Adelaide
Matt Crouch +17.5 Handicap LOSS (a stupid bet on my behalf. He played limited games and even though he came back and played very well in the 2nd half of the season in his 7 games, clearly the best 3 Crows had already been in the umps minds even before a footy game had kicked off. Lesson learnt from my side)

Brisbane
Dunkley +18.5 Handicap LOSS (he seemed to underpoll on the night. Neale being a beneficiary of that)

Carlton
Docherty +15.5 Handicap WON (Felt like Cripps wasnt going to be his night and a 15.5 handicap was a big line against Docherty alone. In the end he ended up winning by 0.5 a vote)

Essendon
Langford +16.5 Handicap LOSS (Nic Martin may be to watch in the future)

GWS
Coniglio +1.5 Handicap LOSS (I keep chasing this guy for the last 2-3 years. He just doesnt get the same attention as Toby Greene and is not as flashy. Ill probably look to steer away from him in future)

Gold Coast
Ben King +15.5 Handicap WIN (throughout the night , I thought Anderson had run away with this group......I was writing it off as a lost bet. But again a 15.5 handicap like the Docherty line is a big line to cover)

Melbourne
Viney +13.5 Handicap WIN (I thought him winning a few medals i think the Kings Clash stood out. He had 2 clear BOGs for me . Not sure if he will get closer to the other two in Petracca and Oliver in future but when Oliver went down this season, he was going to be a clear vote picker)

Richmond
Bolton +13.5 Handicap LOSS (throughout the night I was feeling fuzzy about this one. It ended up losing by 1 vote. I didnt think Prestia would be much chance to get up in it.)

St.Kilda
Brad Crouch +5.5 Handicap WIN (He was one of the guys that polled better than expected. I didnt expect Steele to poll as well as he did. Some players are just vote pigs when it comes to Brownlows even when they dont look their best: P Cripps, Steele, Newcombe, Tom Mitchell) In the end , Steele and Brad Crouch tied on the handicap, which means its a dead-heat rule which applies.

West Coast
Tim Kelly +0 Handicap LOSS (Jamaine Jones polling 3 was a shock. But thinking about it now Jamie Cripps 3 votes against the Bulldogs - a game I watched closely , should have been a warning sign to stay away from this low handicap)

So in the 2nd Group I ended up winning: $6.50 Ben King x $10 Viney x ($9.00 x 1/2) Brad Crouch = $292.50 odds. Had the Shai Bolton Handicap got up at $3.50, the four-fold would have paid odds of 1022/1. (taking into account the Saints tie on the Handicap line)

Attached is the Handicaps and their winners, dead-heats. Green is the winning line, orange are the 'dead heats':

Screen Shot 2023-09-25 at 10.15.44 pm.png
 
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Big WTF moments on Brownlow night.

R2: Jeremy Cameron's 25 disposal, 6 goal effort in an 8 point defeat receives one vote. Is overshadowed by Curnow's 11 touch 5 goal game (2) and Saad's 25 possession game (3).

R2: Joel Amartey clocks up 3 votes in 50% game time. Granted he kicked 4 goals, but Mills had 28 and kicked 2 for no votes and his forward partner McDonald who booted 5 polled the 1.

R3: Jordan De Goey ignored completely for his 35 touch, 9 clearance and 8 inside 50's game, while Adams earns 3 for 20 disposals, 3 contested possessions and no clearances.

R4: Nick Daicos' 36 possession, 2 goal game (12 score involvements) earns nothing while Neale's ordinary 22 touch game gets a vote.

R5: Caleb Serong's highly efficient 37 disposals and 8 clearances in a win earns him nothing. Brayshaw has 18 and a goal and gets one.

R5: Umpires reward Rayner's 16 touch, 2 goal game with 2 votes over Joe Daniher who took 13 marks, and booted 5.3 with his 18 kicks (1 vote)

R5: Andrew Phillips earns 3 votes for 12 touches, 2 goals and 21 hit outs. He wasn't even Essendon's best ruck with Draper booting three. There were several strong midfield performances to choose from too.

R6: were Neale's 7 kicks worth more than Cameron's 7 goals? Apparently, according to the officials. Neale didn't deserve one.

R6: Mattaes Philippou somehow walks away with one vote for his 13 disposal game where he didn't trouble the scoreboard.

R7: in a game he was shown up in the ruck by Ned Reeves, Tim English polled 3.

R9: Taylor Adams rips off Jordan De Goey again, earning 2 for an ordinary 20 disposal game. De Goey's outsnading midfielder's game earns nothing.

R10: no room for Mitch Lewis' 24 disposal, 6 goal effort against West Coast

R10: Jack Steele plays an unremarkable 25 disposal game and gets 3 votes. No room for Jack Sinclair who had 37 disposals, 2 goals and lots of metres gained.

R14: Jason Horne-Francis' 13 disposal, 7 clanger game earning 3 votes becomes arguably the biggest blunder in Brownlow history. Bergman didn't even play well that night.

R21: nitpicking, but James Sicily only polled 2 against Collingwood. He was priced $1.01 to collect the three.

R23: Tarryn Thomas earns a strange 3 votes while Martin and Bolton dominate in a win. Sheezel and Larkey were arguably better on his side.

R24: another BOG effort by De Goey earns donuts. Crisp plays ordinary 21 touch game and gets 2.

Collective: the umpires don't know who Jordan De Goey, Adam Cerra and Rowan Marshall are, combining for 13 votes in great individual seasons. Cripps, Mitchell and Viney continuously rewarded in a number of games they shouldn't have been.
 

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Excellent writeup adammania9

One thing though, do you expect the umpires to get it right?

I used to, until I did some umpiring back in the day at local level.

It only took me a few weeks to realise that asking umpires to award votes is inherently problematic, it will never be 'right'.

Yes, in some games it was clear who was BOG, on rare occasions the 3-2-1 (or 5-4-3-2-1) would basically write itself.

But most of the time, it was like throwing darts.

Old mate got a few clearances and kicked a couple, he can have 3.
The forward on the losing team kept them in the game, he can have 2.
That kid with the helmet seemed to be everywhere, he can 1.

I'm telling you, that's how it is, a lot of the time.

You're too busy actually umpiring the game to be keeping a running tally of who is doing what.

In matches where I was umpiring with a partner, it was a little better, because we could combine our perspectives to come up with something which was (hopefully) fair.

Sometimes he would have similar thoughts to me, sometimes not.

And this only further reinforces the main point: the umpires are not the ideal candidates to determine who was 'best' on ground.

Fairest, yes. Best, no.

Obviously the AFL umpires are professionals and have access to stats (whether or not they admit to using them).

But I still don't expect them to give votes 'correctly'.

By the way, isn't that meant to be part of the fun of the Brownlow?

I get that it would piss you off if you put down some cash and felt like your analysis was stooged by bullshit umpire votes, but you are choosing to bet on an umpire-decided award, and you know full well it has these weird results every year (on the micro if not on the macro), that's the risk you're taking.

For all I know, some dude missed out on a league B&F because I gave the maximum votes to a kid who had 20 touches and kicked 1, instead of old mate who had 25 and kicked 2, because when old mate kicked his second, I was too busy explaining to the captain why his ruckman can't knee his opponent like that, and that's why I paid the free, or maybe I was too busy checking my watch to see how much time was left, or maybe I was tying up my shoelaces, or whatever; maybe my attention was on something else instead of 'hey that's the kid who kicked one earlier, he was two goals now, also got a lot of the pill, might award him some votes'.

Umps do their best to award votes fairly but as I hopefully have explained here, there's only so much they / we can do.
 
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mouncey2franklin said:
Excellent writeup adammania9

One thing though, do you expect the umpires to get it right?

I used to, until I did some umpiring back in the day at local level.

It only took me a few weeks to realise that asking umpires to award votes is inherently problematic, it will never be 'right'.

Yes, in some games it was clear who was BOG, on rare occasions the 3-2-1 (or 5-4-3-2-1) would basically write itself.

But most of the time, it was like throwing darts.

Old mate got a few clearances and kicked a couple, he can have 3.
The forward on the losing team kept them in the game, he can have 2.
That kid with the helmet seemed to be everywhere, he can 1.

I'm telling you, that's how it is, a lot of the time.

You're too busy actually umpiring the game to be keeping a running tally of who is doing what.

In matches where I was umpiring with a partner, it was a little better, because we could combine our perspectives to come up with something which was (hopefully) fair.

Sometimes he would have similar thoughts to me, sometimes not.

And this only further reinforces the main point: the umpires are not the ideal candidates to determine who was 'best' on ground.

Fairest, yes. Best, no.

Obviously the AFL umpires are professionals and have access to stats (whether or not they admit to using them).

But I still don't expect them to give votes 'correctly'.

By the way, isn't that meant to be part of the fun of the Brownlow?

I get that it would piss you off if you put down some cash and felt like your analysis was stooged by bullshit umpire votes, but you are choosing to bet on an umpire-decided award, and you know full well it has these weird results every year (on the micro if not on the macro), that's the risk you're taking.

For all I know, some dude missed out on a league B&F because I gave the maximum votes to a kid who had 20 touches and kicked 1, instead of old mate who had 25 and kicked 2, because when old mate kicked his second, I was too busy explaining to the captain why his ruckman can't knee his opponent like that, and that's why I paid the free, or maybe I was too busy checking my watch to see how much time was left, or maybe I was tying up my shoelaces, or whatever; maybe my attention was on something esle instead of 'hey that's the kid who kicked one earlier, he was two goals now'.

Umps do their best to award votes fairly but as I hopefully have explained here, there's only so much they / we can do.
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Great post, and I completely agree that it's a hard task to get right consistently. My post was more in the sense that there were some real head-scratchers that just didn't make much sense at all, not that they were iffy and I went otherwise. Not like it'll be available for the public to view, but it'd be handy if the umpires wrote a short explanation for the votes they distributed after each games. Would prevent a potential scandal like with what occurred last year.

In terms of comparing giving votes at this level vs. what you did at local level. The umpires know close to if not every plyer in the game. They aren't rewarding the votes to the little dude in the helmet they saw on a number of occasions, they're rewarding the highly known half-back Caleb Daniel who has played 150 televised games, for example.

I love the quirks of the uncertainties of Brownlow night, but some decisions are so far-fetched that they can partially ruin a great night.
 
dontlimitme said:
some really head scratching votes, to me the worst has to be jezza getting 1 for the cats round 2 loss vs carlton.

25 disposals, 6 inside 50s, 600 metres gained, 6 goals ******* 1. for one vote?! my god that's ******* wild to me
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That game by Jezza was in the best five individual performances of the season, one of the best games of his career. He was paying $1.01 for the three votes…
 
fpm84 said:
That game by Jezza was in the best five individual performances of the season, one of the best games of his career. He was paying $1.01 for the three votes…
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i remember watching it live and thought it was genuinely one of the best games i've ever seen a forward play, single handedly nearly carried them over the line playing all over the ******* ground as a forward lol
 
every year there are some WTF votes but overall you can't say they don't do a fairly good job all things considered.

Neale a fine winner, polled 5th most coaches votes and was consistent across most the year, the fact his team mates don't accumulate a heap of the ball is a big plus for him obviously.
 
Random thought but is being a left footer a disadvantge? Umpire is always likely to be in the circle, if a left footer is on the left wing he will be running to the boundary line more then a right footer would, especially true given left footers lack a right foot more then the other so end up on the left sided wing more times then not. Harder to notice someone who has the back turned to you and is running away from you in that way


I feel like the true howlers belonged to left footers mostly (Cameron, Gulden, Kelly)
 
GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Random thought but is being a left footer a disadvantge? Umpire is always likely to be in the circle, if a left footer is on the left wing he will be running to the boundary line more then a right footer would, especially true given left footers lack a right foot more then the other so end up on the left sided wing more times then not. Harder to notice someone who has the back turned to you and is running away from you in that way


I feel like the true howlers belonged to left footers mostly (Cameron, Gulden, Kelly)
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how is Gulden a howler when he has polled about 5 above expected?
You can't just look at the game he missed on (which they lost) and not look at the games he has polled more in than expected.

The forwards are very hard to assess and no doubt certain umps would be more prone to looking away from midfielders, 4 umps this year too makes any analysis of this difficult though
 

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sohohoho said:
how is Gulden a howler when he has polled about 5 above expected?
You can't just look at the game he missed on (which they lost) and not look at the games he has polled more in than expected.

The forwards are very hard to assess and no doubt certain umps would be more prone to looking away from midfielders, 4 umps this year too makes any analysis of this difficult thoug
Click to expand...

Im talking more the individual games when you just miss it completely. Are you more likely to miss the influence of a player completely in a single game as a left footer is what im saying?
 
GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Im talking more the individual games when you just miss it completely. Are you more likely to miss the influence of a player completely in a single game as a left footer is what im saying?
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I know that but when they also poll well in games they aren't expected then I am not sure how that can be a thing?

more players are right footers which is all this is I think.
 
Instead of 4 field umpires which offered zero improvement, and you could argue was actually worse, 3 field umps and the 4th in the stands doing the 3-2-1 votes.

Brownlow still an umpire award for prestige
Umpires concentrate on umpiring

Semi easy fix?
 
GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Random thought but is being a left footer a disadvantge? Umpire is always likely to be in the circle, if a left footer is on the left wing he will be running to the boundary line more then a right footer would, especially true given left footers lack a right foot more then the other so end up on the left sided wing more times then not. Harder to notice someone who has the back turned to you and is running away from you in that way


I feel like the true howlers belonged to left footers mostly (Cameron, Gulden, Kelly)
Click to expand...

~20% of the league are left footers, so they'd only be expected to win a Brownlow twice a decade. Unsure if that's been the case or not as there's not really a lift of left foot AFL players floating around.
 
gillon said:
Some Essendon 3 vote bets I like

Draper round 5 - $6 365 and Lads
Was a scrappy game and he had equal top coaches votes. Was most influential based on the eye test and had 3 goals.

Rozee round 8 - $5 Lads
Second best on per AFLCA and had a goal in the last quarter to go with it. Butters was probably best on but good value here with Rozee

Bolton round 10 - $9 365
I had him best on until the last few minutes where we stole a game we should have lost. Merrett won the medal though so it’s a long shot especially if the umps vote after the presentation

Caldwell round 13 - $13 PB
16 and a goal in the second half. We won the game in the third quarter and the first half was a boring slog
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unlucky on this one,, rozee,bolton got the 2 and caldwell the 1
 
ash_1050 said:
~20% of the league are left footers, so they'd only be expected to win a Brownlow twice a decade. Unsure if that's been the case or not as there's not really a lift of left foot AFL players floating around.
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Man Im way off base then

Tom Mitchell, Matt Priddis, Simon Black and Shane Woewoedin over the last 23 years are left footed brownlow winners
 
Looked at the odds for the 3 Vote Markets from Dabble prior game. Think with the voting panel consisting of 4 umpires, quite alot of underdogs got up.There was one round on quick inspection where 4 double digit odds got up. Also had a round where two 40/1 shots on the Round 5 markets got up.




Dabble 3 Vote Markets

Favourites Won: 118
Underdog Won: 85
Unquoted Players from Dabble Getting Up: 5

The unquoted games where Players got up:

Rd 1 Shai Bolton (10 players listed)

Rd 3 Taylor Adams (11 players listed)

Rd 6 Neale (12 players listed)

Rd 9 Dion Prestia (12 players listed)

Rd 14 Jason Horne-Francis (10 players listed)

That Prestia Handicap stings a bit more now.
 
NYRB said:
Looked at the odds for the 3 Vote Markets from Dabble prior game. Think with the voting panel consisting of 4 umpires, quite alot of underdogs got up.There was one round on quick inspection where 4 double digit odds got up. Also had a round where two 40/1 shots on the Round 5 markets got up.




Dabble 3 Vote Markets

Favourites Won: 118
Underdog Won: 85
Unquoted Players from Dabble Getting Up: 5

The unquoted games where Players got up:

Rd 1 Shai Bolton (10 players listed)

Rd 3 Taylor Adams (11 players listed)

Rd 6 Neale (12 players listed)

Rd 9 Dion Prestia (12 players listed)

Rd 14 Jason Horne-Francis (10 players listed)

That Prestia Handicap stings a bit more now.
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do you have the performance of games where there was a <$1.20 favourite?
 
sohohoho said:
do you have the performance of games where there was a <$1.20 favourite?
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Alot of $1.20 or less favourites lost.

62 of the 82 where the favourite was $1.20 or less , got up. (75.61%). Im thinking for the guys that like the short odds or look for the multis- its probably more riskier now for those short odds. More minds, probably means more opinions and varying opinions. Some grounds from memory have visual scoreboards showcasing stats, im pretty Marvel and MCG have stats in front of the umpires throughout the game. (on electronic boards) Whereas a country or lesser used ground dont have stats. Might be something to factor into account in future.

20 of those underdogs/unquoted came through.
 
NYRB said:
Alot of $1.20 or less favourites lost.

62 of the 82 where the favourite was $1.20 or less , got up. (75.61%). Im thinking for the guys that like the short odds or look for the multis- its probably more riskier now for those short odds. More minds, probably means more opinions and varying opinions. Some grounds from memory have visual scoreboards showcasing stats, im pretty Marvel and MCG have stats in front of the umpires throughout the game. (on electronic boards) Whereas a country or lesser used ground dont have stats. Might be something to factor into account in future.

20 of those underdogs/unquoted came through.
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there is less money placed in these markets too now, due to the $250 limit and also TAB's reluctance to even offer and Sportsbet pulled the plug, so they are probably less efficient also.
 
sohohoho said:
there is less money placed in these markets too now, due to the $250 limit and also TAB's reluctance to even offer and Sportsbet pulled the plug, so they are probably less efficient also.
Click to expand...
If I read correctly from this thread , only 4 places were offering it:

Sportsbet (they put the market up for 1 day before pulling it off), Dabble , Pointsbet (on Brownlow Day), Topsport (on Brownlow day). TAB last year had it but not this year.

The fact that these markets are 'capped' tells you all you need to know about the whole betting event. In what world, do you limit punters on something? In restricting , what purpose does it serve? I feel like the AFL are denying there is anything wrong with their product from a betting perspective. (when we all know there is a likelihood of some passing of Chinese whispers to their families and friends)

PS: And if you dont think there is Chinese Whispers going on from their umpires to their friends and families- your living in your own bubble. There are other ways you can clearly take advantage of the markets without the 3 Vote Game Markets.
 
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