AFLW 2023

[fpm84]

Scheer 4+ @10 (PB) looks good to me.
She’s paying $3.50 for 3+ at most places.

 

[HTPunter]

96 is the biggest ever margin.

can't imagine much value in these alternate margins for AFLW unlike the men where they can offer better value than the 1-24 or 1/39 stuff.

There was some value in 50 & 60 markets v West Coast & GWS this year. The top teams capable of flogging those sides though are starting to look to finals now past couple of weeks and aren’t really putting the throttle down

 

[Areyoufireal]

I wasn't aware it included AFLW but B365 do bet credits if your player is ruled out before halftime.

 

[Areyoufireal]

Scheer/Parry 2 each @ 6
Antonio 2 @ 8
Three above 2 each @ 46

 

[HTPunter]

Shierlaw 3 Randall 2 Garner, Eddey 1 @ $10.50

Randall 3 Shierlaw, O’Loughlin 2 Bruton 1 @ $78

FGS
O’Loughlin $21
Shierlaw $7.50

O’Loughlin $2.50/$10.50 1/2
Bruton $2.12 for 1
Eddey $2.50 for 2
Shierlaw $2/$4.50 for 2/3
Randall $2.20 for 3

Didn’t bother odds shopping, Sportsbet

 

[HTPunter]

Shierlaw 3 Randall 2 Garner, Eddey 1 @ $10.50

Randall 3 Shierlaw, O’Loughlin 2 Bruton 1 @ $78

Randall 2.2 Shierlaw 1.2

 

[NonPhixion]

Melb -42.5 live on TAB

They will run all over WCE in the 2nd half

 

[X_box_X]

Sports with little care factor creates a really interesting case study from a betting perspective. The AFLW is a perfect example of this.

Four of Melbourne's best players all face fitness tests this week... Paxman, Harris, Pearce and Gay combined would all be worth about 10-12 points to the line. If you follow the AFLW like I do, you'd know there's not enough care factor for the line to move that much. It simply does not happen.

This allows sharps to take advantage when they identify a weak line and you'll find there's no mad rush to get your bets on. Often you'll see some handicaps remain stale up until the opening bounce. This simply does not happen in popular sports where more energy is put into framing markets, and the weight of money invested is a lot higher. Lines obviously move a lot quicker in the AFL, for example, and you're less likely to find a stale line.

As a fair comparison:

Paxman = Viney
Gay = Brayshaw
Pearce = Jolly (circa 2004)
Harris = Fritsch

Pearce is Melbourne's number one ruckman but to create a fair comparison, I cannot compare her to Gawn, so I've settled for a previous Melbourne ruckman (Jolly) to show her true worth.

Paxman and Gay are very good midfielders who I'd rate #3 and #5 in their incredibly strong midfield. While Harris is clearly Melbourne's second best forward and a gun in her own right.

If they all play, Melbourne's line should go from -7.5 to at least -15.5... But it won't. You'll be able to get yourself a very strong position right up until game time.

This is one of many examples I could use, but the line for Brisbane v GCS last week should have been -19.5. It opened at -7.5 and staggered between -12.5 to -14.5 between Tuesday and Saturday. It was only ten minutes before the game that TAB moved the line to -17.5. Obviously due to some sharps getting on the weak line. Most books like Topsport had the line at -14.5 right up until the opening bounce.


OPENING PRICES


CLOSING PRICES




I'll finish off by saying that Essendon's best player (Prespakis) had her suspension overturned last night. That was very much unexpected. It has done absolutely nothing to the line. If it was Zac Merrett who had his suspension overturned, that line would go from -39.5 to -42.5...

I'm not suggesting to get on Essendon (-37.5 w SB for those who are keen), but if you believe that line was a fair price for a team playing without Prespakis, you might suddenly think that represents value. My point is, from experience, you'll probably still be able to get that line for a few more days. Perhaps even on the morning of the game.

 

[Areyoufireal]

Syd +3.5 @ 1.88 PB
M Ham 1/2 @ 4/29s B365

 

[Areyoufireal]

Syd +3.5 @ 1.88 PB
M Ham 1/2 @ 4/29s B365

Easy Syd win and Ham 1.1 So a win but not what it could have been.

Melb vs North
Shierlaw 2/3 @ 5/19
Eddey 2 @ 8.5

Bannan / Shierlaw 2 each @ 17
Bannan / Hore / Sheirlaw / Eddey 2 each @ 300

 

[HTPunter]

B365:
Toogood 3 - $2.10

SB:
Clarke 2/3 - $3.30/8.75

Tierney 2/3 - $6.25/26

Scott 2/3 - $7/31

Prespakis 1 - $2.10

Wales 1 - $4.70

Alexander 1 - $2.65

 

[HTPunter]

Beating up on s**t sides has been where the goalkickers money has been at this year

 

[Areyoufireal]

StK vs Bris
Hodder 2/3 @ 5/19
Hodder/Smith 2 each @ 21

Ess Vs Carl
Alexander 2 @ 15
Scott 2 @ 8
Jaques 1/2 @ 7/29

Alexander/Scott 2 each @ 121
Alexander/Scott/Jaques 1 each @ 41
Alexander/Scott/Jaques 2 @1001

 

[Areyoufireal]

WC vs WB
Woodley 2 @ 17
Hooker 1.2 @ 3.50/29
Woodley/Hooker combos of 1/2 @ 10/51/81/501

 

[Areyoufireal]

StK vs Bris
Hodder 2/3 @ 5/19
Hodder/Smith 2 each @ 21

Ess Vs Carl
Alexander 2 @ 15
Scott 2 @ 8
Jaques 1/2 @ 7/29

Alexander/Scott 2 each @ 121
Alexander/Scott/Jaques 1 each @ 41
Alexander/Scott/Jaques 2 @1001

Last game for the day; Tigs vs Cats

Scheer/Parry/Brennan/Yassir 1/2 @ 7.50/191
Woods 1/2 @ 5.50/29
Moloney/Surman 1/2 combos @ 8/36/46/191

 

[X_box_X]

I like the Saints in this spot...


CARLTON V ST K
On a neutral venue through nine rounds, St Kilda have been 3.1 points better than Carlton. With Carlton having a slight home ground advantage, it would be easy to fall into a trap and have this game as a Pick 'Em. That would be dangerous territory. The facts are the Saints have won five of their last six matches, which included scalps against Brisbane and Collingwood. Meanwhile, the Blues have lost their previous three matches, which included a loss to a dismal GWS outfit without their best player. Let's have a look at the opponents both teams have played this year and their respective results:

Saints lost to Norf 56-16
Blues lost to Norf 66-6
SAINTS +20

Blues beat Dogs 53-34
Saints beat Dogs 54-36
BLUES +1

Blues lost to Pies 27-10
Saints beat Pies 47-35
SAINTS +29

Blues lost to Giants 47-49
Saints beat Giants 48-35
SAINTS +15

Blues lost to Bombers 56-24
Saints lost to Bombers 40-28
SAINTS +20

Apart from the Bulldogs game (practically even results), the Saints have clearly performed better against the same opposition.

 

[HTPunter]

Saints should definitely win. Finals on the line too v giving up for the season. $1.65-1.70 is a great spot

 

[X_box_X]

SB opened the Saints at -1.5 on Monday.

 

[Robo87]

peck making her tigers debut today named fwd, it seems her teammates love her from the announcement video, so...
1u peck ags @4.50 ts.

 

[Areyoufireal]

Randall 1/2 @ 6/29
Ponter/Gould 2 each@ 5.50
Randall 1 / Ponter/Gould 2 @36
All three above 2 each @171

 

[Areyoufireal]

Back for more punishment;

Waterhouse 1/2 @ 3/23
Ponter/Gould 2 each / Crows -15.5 @4.60
Ponter/Jones/Gould 2 each / Crows -15.5 @8.20
Ponter/Jones/Hamilton 2 each @ 26

 

[Areyoufireal]

Back for more punishment;

Waterhouse 1/2 @ 3/23
Ponter/Gould 2 each / Crows -15.5 @4.60
Ponter/Jones/Gould 2 each / Crows -15.5 @8.20
Ponter/Jones/Hamilton 2 each @ 26

C Randall 1/2 @ 4.50/29
Shierlaw / Jones 2 each @ 21
T Randall / Shierlaw / Jones / Ponter 1/2 Each @ 8/201

 

[X_box_X]

How bizarre is this?

On BF in the margin markets (I.e. 24.5 & 39.5), draw is an option. However, if the match is a draw at the end of regulation time, your bet still loses given a winner will be determined in extra time