AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

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Geeves Train said:
Heart skipped a beat when I read this!! Can you remember where these markets were located, eg: same place as Team votes, head to heads, etc??
Click to expand...
Yeah it was just below Brownlow and then Brownlow teams. You need to click 'Brownlow Medal' to get Head to heads and groups, but then there was a separate heading below for teams and then 3 vote games. Some interesting odds on there, only rounds 1 and 2 but you could get Buddy's 8 goal game for $1.25, if they allow multis then there could be some pretty generous bets in there. Hope it's back up tomorrow
 
For you psychos saying crippps will get 15 votes or even 19 or less I question your sanity and whether you've watched him play this year. If you're relying on history you will lose a lot of money
 
I think votes towards players in losing sides has been an every growing development over the past few years.

Mark coughlan polled 3 in a big loss from memory and since have been becoming more prevelant.
 
Josh Kelly v Luke Parker- Kelly @ $1.70 2U Tab Touch

Have Kelly with 3 clear BOG’s and a close second plus a couple of potential vote games. Parker 4.5 Votes behind on my count.

Let me know what you think all.
 
VK92 said:
Josh Kelly v Luke Parker- Kelly @ $1.70 2U Tab Touch

Have Kelly with 3 clear BOG’s and a close second plus a couple of potential vote games. Parker 4.5 Votes behind on my count.

Let me know what you think all.
Click to expand...
Kelly by 1 for me so its a no bet
 
You can go through the top 12 players at every agency and none of them will miss the top 20.
Obviously most of them will make up the top 10.
Mix and match a few combos.
It’s the best option at the moment
 

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Keystone agony said:
I think votes towards players in losing sides has been an every growing development over the past few years.

Mark coughlan polled 3 in a big loss from memory and since have been becoming more prevelant.
Click to expand...

There are plenty of people saying this but so far the only one that has posted hard data (Sab) shows that the exact opposite is the case. Players just DO NOT POLL when their side gets flogged.
 
Keystone agony said:
I think votes towards players in losing sides has been an every growing development over the past few years.

Mark coughlan polled 3 in a big loss from memory and since have been becoming more prevelant.
Click to expand...
Mark Coughlan polled 3 votes in a 39 point loss, I’m assuming that’s what you are referring to. Far cry from the 9x 50+ point losses Carlton have had this year.

It would be boring if we all thought the same way. I’ve shared my reasons extensively in the thread as to why I am low on Cripps, Gawn and Grundy. I’m happy with the amount of time I’ve put into researching this and haven’t seen anything yet that makes me think otherwise.
 
There were only 11 examples of players polling votes last year in matches that were lost by 40+ points.

My evidence from last year shows that Brisbane players received the most amount of votes in big losses. In fact, six of the 11 examples of players polling votes in 40+ losses were Brisbane players. Beams polled three votes from those matches.

My evidence also shows that Sam Hay (3), Curtis Deboy (3), Matt Nicholls (2), Andrew Stephens (2), Rob O'Gorman (2) and Hayden Gavine (2) umpired in matches multiple times where players in these losses were awarded votes. Hay, Deboy, Nicholls and Stephens seem to be the umpires responsible for this more than O'Gorman and Gavine, as the latter two umpired both of their games with one of the other four.

2017:
Round 1:
Murphy 1 vote - Carlton lose by 43 (Hay, Nicolls, Stevic)

Round 4:
Martin 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 52 (Mollison, Ryan, Ryan)

Round 10:
Newnes 1 vote - St Kilda lose by 40 (Hay, Meridith, Findlay)
Beams 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 45 (O'Gorman, Stephens, Chamberlain)

Round 13:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 40 (Margetts, Deboy, Stephens, Hay)

Round 16:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 85 (Gavine, Hay, McInerney)

Round 19:
Beams 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 68 (O'Gorman, Dalgleish, Deboy)

Round 20:
Menegola 1 vote - Geelong lose by 46 (Donlon, Nicholls, Hosking)
Ziebell 1 vote - North lose by 64 (Deboy, Gavine, Pannell)

Round 23:
Rich 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 51 (Foot, Jeffery, Wallace)
Ward 1 vote - GWS lose by 55 (Meredith, Schmitt, McInerney)

So where does Cripps fit into all of this?

Round 5: I predicted him to poll three votes in a 10-point loss. Sam Hay and Rob O'Gorman umpired in this match.
Round 6: I predicted him to poll two votes in a 21-point loss. Matt Nicholls umpired in this match.
Round 23: Stephens umpired in this match.

There were also a couple of the six umpires I mentioned above who umpired in matches that Cripps played well in big losses, so it will be interesting to see how this stacks up.

I'd be interested in going back a couple of more seasons and analysing this sort of data when I get more time.

Eleni Glouftsis also umpired a couple of Cripps' big matches in big losses (where I have predicted possible votes). She is an untested source, but my gut feel is she may have more of a heart than most male umpires in being fair to dominant players in a side that loses by a large margin.

25+ votes might be a stretch, but there is no way I'd be backing him to poll fewer than 19.5 votes like some are predicting.
 
X_box_X said:
There were only 11 examples of players polling votes last year in matches that were lost by 40+ points.

My evidence from last year shows that Brisbane players received the most amount of votes in big losses. In fact, six of the 11 examples of players polling votes in 40+ losses were Brisbane players. Beams polled three votes from those matches.

My evidence also shows that Sam Hay (3), Curtis Deboy (3), Matt Nicholls (2), Andrew Stephens (2), Rob O'Gorman (2) and Hayden Gavine (2) umpired in matches multiple times where players in these losses were awarded votes. Hay, Deboy, Nicholls and Stephens seem to be the umpires responsible for this more than O'Gorman and Gavine, as the latter two umpired both of their games with one of the other four.

2017:
Round 1:
Murphy 1 vote - Carlton lose by 43 (Hay, Nicolls, Stevic)

Round 4:
Martin 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 52 (Mollison, Ryan, Ryan)

Round 10:
Newnes 1 vote - St Kilda lose by 40 (Hay, Meridith, Findlay)
Beams 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 45 (O'Gorman, Stephens, Chamberlain)

Round 13:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 40 (Margetts, Deboy, Stephens, Hay)

Round 16:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 85 (Gavine, Hay, McInerney)

Round 19:
Beams 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 68 (O'Gorman, Dalgleish, Deboy)

Round 20:
Menegola 1 vote - Geelong lose by 46 (Donlon, Nicholls, Hosking)
Ziebell 1 vote - North lose by 64 (Deboy, Gavine, Pannell)

Round 23:
Rich 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 51 (Foot, Jeffery, Wallace)
Ward 1 vote - GWS lose by 55 (Meredith, Schmitt, McInerney)

So where does Cripps fit into all of this?

Round 5: I predicted him to poll three votes in a 10-point loss. Sam Hay and Rob O'Gorman umpired in this match.
Round 6: I predicted him to poll two votes in a 21-point loss. Matt Nicholls umpired in this match.
Round 23: Stephens umpired in this match.

There were also a couple of the six umpires I mentioned above who umpired in matches that Cripps played well in big losses, so it will be interesting to see how this stacks up.

I'd be interested in going back a couple of more seasons and analysing this sort of data when I get more time.

Eleni Glouftsis also umpired a couple of Cripps' big matches in big losses (where I have predicted possible votes). She is an untested source, but my gut feel is she may have more of a heart than most male umpires in being fair to dominant players in a side that loses by a large margin.

25+ votes might be a stretch, but there is no way I'd be backing him to poll fewer than 19.5 votes like some are predicting.
Click to expand...
I like the in depth analysis.
Though i think anything around 15 votes for a team that won 2 games is a fantastic achievement. Not many players could do that.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Red Dog Styles said:
I like the in depth analysis.
Though i think anything around 15 votes for a team that won 2 games is a fantastic achievement. Not many players could do that.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
I'm well aware of that. A fantastic achievement would be consistent with the fantastic season Cripps had, though.

FWIW:
Beams - 17 votes in 2017 (five wins)
Neale - 20 votes in 2016 (four wins)
Merrett - 19 votes in 2016 (three wins)
Ablett - 24 votes in 2012 (three wins)
Ablett - 23 votes in 2011 (three wins)
 
X_box_X said:
There were only 11 examples of players polling votes last year in matches that were lost by 40+ points.

My evidence from last year shows that Brisbane players received the most amount of votes in big losses. In fact, six of the 11 examples of players polling votes in 40+ losses were Brisbane players. Beams polled three votes from those matches.

My evidence also shows that Sam Hay (3), Curtis Deboy (3), Matt Nicholls (2), Andrew Stephens (2), Rob O'Gorman (2) and Hayden Gavine (2) umpired in matches multiple times where players in these losses were awarded votes. Hay, Deboy, Nicholls and Stephens seem to be the umpires responsible for this more than O'Gorman and Gavine, as the latter two umpired both of their games with one of the other four.

2017:
Round 1:
Murphy 1 vote - Carlton lose by 43 (Hay, Nicolls, Stevic)

Round 4:
Martin 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 52 (Mollison, Ryan, Ryan)

Round 10:
Newnes 1 vote - St Kilda lose by 40 (Hay, Meridith, Findlay)
Beams 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 45 (O'Gorman, Stephens, Chamberlain)

Round 13:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 40 (Margetts, Deboy, Stephens, Hay)

Round 16:
Zorko 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 85 (Gavine, Hay, McInerney)

Round 19:
Beams 2 votes - Brisbane lose by 68 (O'Gorman, Dalgleish, Deboy)

Round 20:
Menegola 1 vote - Geelong lose by 46 (Donlon, Nicholls, Hosking)
Ziebell 1 vote - North lose by 64 (Deboy, Gavine, Pannell)

Round 23:
Rich 1 vote - Brisbane lose by 51 (Foot, Jeffery, Wallace)
Ward 1 vote - GWS lose by 55 (Meredith, Schmitt, McInerney)

So where does Cripps fit into all of this?

Round 5: I predicted him to poll three votes in a 10-point loss. Sam Hay and Rob O'Gorman umpired in this match.
Round 6: I predicted him to poll two votes in a 21-point loss. Matt Nicholls umpired in this match.
Round 23: Stephens umpired in this match.

There were also a couple of the six umpires I mentioned above who umpired in matches that Cripps played well in big losses, so it will be interesting to see how this stacks up.

I'd be interested in going back a couple of more seasons and analysing this sort of data when I get more time.

Eleni Glouftsis also umpired a couple of Cripps' big matches in big losses (where I have predicted possible votes). She is an untested source, but my gut feel is she may have more of a heart than most male umpires in being fair to dominant players in a side that loses by a large margin.

25+ votes might be a stretch, but there is no way I'd be backing him to poll fewer than 19.5 votes like some are predicting.
Click to expand...
That’s a really interesting angle and something the model I’m using hasn’t considered(I suspect because the sample size is relatively small) but I’d be keen to hear what you come up with if you look further into it.
 
Lol now we are using blatant sexism to boost Crips vote tally (female umpire will be more caring on the losing players)

Give me a spell.

I noted none of the vote tallies Xbox listed above came in 2 win seasons though - what is the greatest amount of votes polled by a player in a 2 win season?
 
X_box_X said:
There were only 11 examples of players polling votes last year in matches that were lost by 40+ points.

My evidence from last year shows that Brisbane players received the most amount of votes in big losses. In fact, six of the 11 examples of players polling votes in 40+ losses were Brisbane players. Beams polled three votes from those matches.
Click to expand...

Adding to your analysis:
There were 63 40+ point losses in 2017 in which 13 votes were awarded. If your team gets thumped, it is hard to get votes. And if you do poll votes, it is likely to be only 1.

Maybe Cripps can buck this trend? And if you think he can, then I am sure he presents some value bets because the market seems to be swaying the other way.
 
demon_fanatic said:
yeh cripps will clear 19.5 you watch... he doesn;t have to poll 3's in the losses guys... plenty of 2's and he will clear 19.5 easily...
Click to expand...
Going by that he would have to poll in around 10 games. Do you realistically expect that? There wouldn't be many players in the Afl getting votes in over 10 games right?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
ok so to me the whole Cripps thing sounds very much like the old "it's different this time" phrase.

Firstly to get brownlow votes you need to 1. be a very good player and 2. be a very good player that is noticed by umpires and 3. preferably have a winning team as historically more likely to get votes.

Now Cripps is very good and Carlton are very bad so he's pushing sh*t up hill on the 3rd point. Also they aren't just bad they were atrocious so the majority of these losses were thrashings.

My 2nd point would also to me to be a disadvantage to Cripps. While he stands out for being a competitive ball beast, he didn't kick alot of goals at all. He handballs far more than he kicks and he's more an inside player rather than inside - outside. He's more workmanlike than flashy. All the recent players that get as many (or even more) votes than they deserve are players like Dusty, Danger, Ablett, Fyfe, Swan, Judd - all these players kick goals, play inside - outside, are highly noticable (tatts, bald head, good speed) and I assume kick the ball far more than handball (not fact checked) - Cripps handballs far more than he kicks.

There have been a million fantastic players who have dominated games and not got a brownlow vote in games their team got thrashed in so what makes Cripps so different?
 
Plenty of options out there boys. If ur unsure about cripps, back one of the other 5000 markets.

I like sportsbet. Oliver last 8 rounds. 9 bucks.

By the way. Cripps 22
 
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