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2018 Draft thread

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TheBrownDog said:
I get that you feel under attack a bit, but in your last few posts you seem to imply that anyone who disagrees with your logic is blind and/or a sycophant. That’s a pretty broad brush to swing around.

Your arguments tend to be well written and give the impression that they are well reasoned but on closer look they do seem to hinge on a lot of negative assumptions and guesswork that tends to assume that our recruiting team aren’t thinking strategically and aren’t attempting to get deals done in private. You also seem to put a lot of stock in the internet groupthink about where players are likely to be taken.

My observation is that you have a pretty concrete negative impression about the strategic nous of our recruiters and are putting 2 + 2 together to get 5 in your analysis of how they have gone in this draft. A lot of assumptions that can’t be proven or disproven with the information available to any of us.
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Fair enough - I don't agree with you, but I can see where you're coming from.

I don't believe anyone who disagrees with me is a blind sycophant, however I do get irked when I we draft someone like Ely Smith and I read things like "awesome pick", "total gun", and "going to smash everyone". A year on, we can congratulate the recruiters on picks like Bailey and Rayner - they have probably got them right. Starce, Wooller and Ballenden, we still don't know (in my opinion). Smith? Just a tad too early to call. I probably went a bit contrarian after that, and while I've no idea whether Smith will be a good player (I definitely hope he will), I do think we went a bit early on him. Given the GC/WC trade, I can see a missed opportunity. But still, you're right - there's definitely a lot of guesswork there. Quite possible it wasn't an option last night, and was only an option this morning.

I'm aware there's a definite margin for error in my posts over the last 24 hours. I've posited a few things, and there's no guarantee I'm right at all. I've tried to apply logic and reason to the situation, and I'm happy to admit that there's an element of guesswork there. However this is a chat forum, not influencing the world or anything. I don't have a problem with offering an opinion which is backed by some logic and some guesswork. Others disagree, and where they've offered their opinion and reasoning, I've been fine with it. I've also been deliberate that, when something I've said is disproven, I've put my hand up and admitted it, without needing to be prompted.

I don't believe our recruiters aren't thinking strategically. But I think I've made my thoughts on Noble's trade/draft philosophy clear, and it's more a philosophical difference than "I'm right, he's wrong". Even then, as I've stated, I reckon he's been amazing for our club and even if he were absolute rubbish at this bit (which he isn't), i still think his overall contribution to the club is huge.
 
One of the best things about our picks is that we have met the inside mid need but none of them are what you would call slow. Perhaps McFadyen is the slowest but then he could easily make it as a small marking forward. And a guy like Answerth could easily fill a spot in defence.
 
jackess said:
Also do know where in the draft players like Lloyd, Laird and Stewart were taken?
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Survivorship bias.

I never said Answerth/Madden would not make it at an AFL level. Why would I say that?

I said it's too early to tell, and it very much is. I could pull out names of players selected at pick 50 onwards who never played a game, but what's the point of that? You know perfectly well that early draft picks have a higher chance of being stars than late picks.

I hope Answerth and Madden make it at AFL level. I really do. But we're probably a couple of years away from even having the slightest idea whether they will or not.
 
Teams loading up on mature agers.

Clearly no depth in this draft.
 
WhiteLionFeva said:
One of the best things about our picks is that we have met the inside mid need but none of them are what you would call slow. Perhaps McFadyen is the slowest but then he could easily make it as a small marking forward. And a guy like Answerth could easily fill a spot in defence.
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This is how I feel too. Was keen on mids but wanted to make sure we werent adding similar types to Matho, Keays, Lyons (both really) Lester. Really felt our next group of mids was a bit one dimensional. Seems to be a nice blend of size and pace in this new group. Fairly happy to be honest.
 
jackess said:
Anyone know anything about this Ryan Bastinac?
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Interesting first choice. Leaving the door open for Geelong to take Allison?
 
spotthedog1 said:
Survivorship bias.

I never said Answerth/Madden would not make it at an AFL level. Why would I say that?

I said it's too early to tell, and it very much is. I could pull out names of players selected at pick 50 onwards who never played a game, but what's the point of that? You know perfectly well that early draft picks have a higher chance of being stars than late picks.

I hope Answerth and Madden make it at AFL level. I really do. But we're probably a couple of years away from even having the slightest idea whether they will or not.
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It shows where good small backs are often taken in he draft. You could say Whitfield was drafted early in the draft but he was also drafted as a midfielder. Which shows how things can change

And we’re a couple of years away from knowi about most of the draftees.
 

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spotthedog1 said:
Fair enough. I can understand that, but there's a flipside as well. He's a big, mature body, and he's been playing against skinny kids. He's no longer the big kid on the field. He's the whelk on the field surrounded by battle hardened men. Wouldn't be the first to struggle now that his size isn't a point of difference.

Not saying he won't be top 10 in the draft, I'd love him to be. I think if it were that simple though, he wouldn't have gone in the 20s.
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Meh, he's still a boy, hasn't even started putting on muscle yet. Once he hits the weight room he'll make Mick Conlan look like Bob Murphy.
 
spotthedog1 said:
I don't believe anyone who disagrees with me is a blind sycophant, however I do get irked when I we draft someone like Ely Smith and I read things like "awesome pick", "total gun", and "going to smash everyone".
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That bugs many of us, myself included. I don't deal in absolutes - "spud" or "gun". Unabashed positivity is as annoying as persistent negativity.
 
The rookie list seems to have turned into a ‘break glass in case of an emergency’ list
 

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No Sydney Stack. Must have some serious off field issues.
 
And that's it. Just Allison & Bastinac re-rookied for us in the rookie draft. Nothing unexpected for us. Only 18 fresh faces in the rookie draft, 4 former players found new homes and the rest were just redraftings. None of our other academy players have been selected elsewhere either.
 
jackess said:
It shows where good small backs are often taken in he draft. You could say Whitfield was drafted early in the draft but he was also drafted as a midfielder. Which shows how things can change

And we’re a couple of years away from knowi about most of the draftees.
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I don't have the stats (so talking out of my backside here), but I'd imagine that you'd find that even for small backs, the higher average games would be taken earlier in the draft, and you'd still have plenty of busts late in the draft... Much as I'm loathe to use Sam Docherty as an example... compared to someone like Josh Mcguiness.

Completely agree that we're a couple of years away from knowing about most of the draftees. Probably safe to say Sam Walsh will be a player of reasonable or higher quality, but even then, wouldn't be the first time a pick 1 has flopped.
 
I’m really happy with our draft haul with the limited knowledge I have.

Smith impresses me immensely. I love those hard but bulls and Smith is every bit of it from what I’ve seen both footage and in person (wasn’t that much smaller than Jono Brown for an 18 year old).

Berry Jr was the one I really wanted (purely romantic reasons which I admitted weeks ago) and I’m glad the club grabbed him when they did.

McFadyen was the other for obvious reasons.

Would’ve loved McLennan (no chance of getting him with our second) and Cameron (again no chance given WCE could match).

I don’t know much about Joyce and Answerth, but both sound interesting prospects the club rated and it was a shrewd bit of trading to get up the order to get the latter.

I would’ve loved Coleman based on a recent article I read and given we have no rookie spots, hopefully he is selected as a one of the six top agers we can keep in the NEAFL for next year.

All up, I’m really stoked with what our club accomplished; looking forward to hearing why tonight and meeting a couple of you lads if I know who you are.
 
spotthedog1 said:
Whereas you continue to take cheap shots and not bother backing it up. Give it a rest, it's getting old.

I can be negative - yes, it's been a long road as a Lions supporter. And no, I don't just follow along blindly. I'm fine with that. That said, I think if you read my review of the draft in the last page, it was mostly positive. What's the problem? I thought our first pick was going too early, but had only compliments for 3 other picks (the Answerth trade and pick I have no opinion on at all - don't know much about him).
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Again, not having a go, but you keep on about going too early on Ely Smith. What were we supposed to do? Our pick was where it was. He was the player we wanted. We did not have a pick 5 spots later. We went with who we rated highest at our pick. We also wanted Tom Berry with our next pick. Again, what else were we supposed to do?
 

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