Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[HereComesJuddy]

Caddy, Prestia, Townsend, Houli, Grimes, Nankervis.. All Richmond premiership players who were traded into the club, more than 1/4 of the team. Premiership teams are not built 'growing your own'

Geelong disagree

 

[HarryFlashman]

I have never understood this, why would you want to weaken your new clubs chance of success by ensuring they give away picks to compensate fairly for your loss. US sports would laugh at this, you wont see Lebron demanding Cleveland get looked after when he leaves.

The other thing that annoys me about AFL is that we are so reluctant to use the preseason draft, because its not the polite thing to do.. F@rk it, we finish last thats the one advantage we have... why wouldnt we tell Gaff, Dalhouse or who ever is the best uncontracted player to not sign and go into the pre season draft, it would be worth an extra $200k to his salary if we didnt have to give up anything for them.

It shits me as well.
Problem is the AFL is a Mickey Mouse competition, what should be happening is that players get there free agency & clubs get to trade whoever they want, where ever they want to. It’s bullshit that the players get to dictate terms so much, it’s a job. All parties need to be way more cutthroat, it would make it all a lot easier & cleaner.

 

[BluesRule]

Giving up pick one is lazy recruiting in my opinion and they don't want to create another hole in the list by filling the one they inherited.

Instead work hard and get Gaff (A Grader) as FA and then next year get Shiel (A Grader) as a FA. Hold onto their firsts and use their second rounders to trade for more mature talent.

Let's look at the type of players they could potentially get with their second round picks, based on what clubs have already done.

Prestia (Rich)
Caddy (Rich)
Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Hoskin-Elliott (Col)
Matt Kennedy (Car)
Marchbank (Car) etc, etc

I could easily go on to name 20-30 really good players that are still in the game.

No doubt you will point out the trades that haven't worked and my response to that is pick one is already going to land a gun that's ready to play. There is no advantage of trading a gun for a gun. Use the second rounders wisely and bring in really good players that are AFL ready, rather than wasting the 2-3 years needed to develop an 18 year old.

Agree it should require a super deal to trade pick #1. Would want Massive overs!

If we have pick #1 we should draft (42 Jack Lukosius 9/8/00 193.5cm 84.5kg Woodville West Torrens) as he is quite simply the best prospect most have seen and suits the modern game brilliantly. Already playing against men in SA and dominating the u18 carnival. Can run, can kick, can tackle, etc. Team looks better just adding him in (and having everybody else back).

But we are not getting spoon #5 or #1.

 

[SOSforPM]

Lukosius, Charlie and Mckay would be lethal!

Two lead up forwards that can run and jump all day would be priceless. How many times on the weekend did we need another option after Charlie led up and took a mark at half back? Imagine having a clone that can be the next option or take turns when the other needs a spell?

Then have McKay play out of the square while relieving the ruck every now and then. McKay is still a serious talent with decent mobility for his height.

Another reason that hasn’t been mentioned heaps and I’m sure the club would have a fair understanding is the rule changes that are going to take place over the next couple of years... no idea what they are but mention of reduced interchanges and zones will no doubt benefit forwards as the afl hates low scoring.

I’d keep pick one if we get it all day long. Use free agencies and all picks over the next couple of years to get midfielders and we’d have one hell of a team going forward.

 

[Blue__Balls]

One element of this I definitely do not accept is that Lukosius IN means McKay OUT. It does not and should not.

McKay - should he continue to develop - is a sensational forward/ruck option, which means we would only need to play one specialist ruckman for the foreseeable future.

Curnow - and from all reports Lukosius - are very mobile forwards who have the flex to play flanks, start on a wing, etc. Should it eventuate that we wind up with all those players on our list, that puts us in a sensational position from a gameday flexibility and match-ups point of view, not in a over-loaded position where we have too much of something.

Multiple match-up options? The ability to expose opposition weaknesses? Viable alternatives should injury strike? Can you IMAGINE having these things?!!?

Good point. I reckon you can comfortably make a tall forward line work if you have the right players - not just in that forward line, but around the ground. Good ball use, plenty of pressure, and nobody who's gonna blow up after three quarters and start turning the ball over.

Come 2020 when we reckon we should be nudging the top 8, how does the side look?

Plowman, Marchbank, ?????
Williamson, Weitering, Docherty
O'Brien, Kennedy, Fisher
Kreuzer, Cripps, Dow
SPS, C. Curnow, Lukosius
Pickett, McKay, ?????
I/C: E. Curnow, ?????, ?????, ?????

Options to fill those spots:
Small defender - need to find one, unless McDaid kicks on
Small forward - Lebois or Polson, potentially
Bench: Silvagni, Cuningham, Lang, Byrne, Macreadie, Schumacher, Garlett - maybe Murphy if he can last that long

None of those bench options fill me with heaps of confidence at this stage, so securing someone like Shiel or Neale as a Free Agent in 2019 is going to be really important. Find a small mid/fwd like Dahlhaus via free agency this year. Trade hard for a dour small defender, I'd throw both our second rounders at Lloyd with a future second coming back. Go hard at Cerra in 2019 as well.

2018
Pick 1 - Lukosius
Picks 23 and 26 - Lloyd and 2019 second rounder
Free agent - Dahlhaus

2019
Pick 8 - Adam Cerra
Pick 26 - ????
Pick 33 - ????
Pick 44 - ????
Free agent (2019) - Shiel

Plowman, Marchbank, Lloyd
Williamson, Weitering, Docherty
O'Brien, Dow, Fisher
Kreuzer/TDK, Cripps, Shiel
SPS, C. Curnow, Lukosius
Pickett, McKay, Dahlhaus
I/C: E. Curnow, Kennedy, Cerra, Murphy
Emg: Polson, Silvagni, Macreadie, Cuningham​

 

[Arr0w]

I am warming to the idea.
How about Shiel for a swap of our first for GWS’ first (currently pick 9)?
Instantly bolsters our midfield, support for Cripps.
Maybe a year early, but perhaps best meets our needs.

Certainly a starting point and immediate assistance to Cripps and the team. I would only consider a trade for Shiel if he announced he wanted out end of this year. Rather than some of the more bizarre suggestions of a trade scenario, such as Shiel & Kelly or Taranto, for pick 1, I believe we and other sides could still benefit

Example trade ONLY, if the deal was happening now.

3 Way Deal

Lions lose pick 2, 38 - Gain pick 9, 43, Lobb
GWS lose pick 9, 43, Shiel, Lobb, 2019 1st - Gain pick 1, 26, 38, Carton 2019 1st,
Carlton lose pick 1, 26, 2019 1st- Gain Shiel, pick 2, GWS 2019 1st

Lions - Get an immediate replacement for an aging Martin and still go to the draft to get a top 10 mid
GWS - While losing 2 good players, get pick 1 and an earlier pick in 2019
Carlton - Will either get Lukosius or Walsh, while adding Shiel. If we add other FA such as a Wallis etc and natural improvement in the squad, we could end up mid table in 2019, with GWS having to improve there position in 2019, losing 2 x best 22

 

[Tushay]

A forward line that includes C Curnow, Lukosius & McKay will win games with 30 forward entries.

 

[branedotorg]

TL;DR. The 2 rebuilds are actually VERY different. Melbourne had a balanced list turnover and recruited very cleverly to get better in year 1, then better again in year 2, then year 3 and so on. Actually quite a traditional (and impressive) rebuild, and net they traded OUT of the draft slightly to get better. Carlton's rebuild (by trading out talent to aggressively get more draft picks and young players in trades) recruited to get worse in the short-term and much better in the long run.

incremental vs hockey stick

 

[HarryFlashman]

It's very unlikely we get pick one - check out the draws as follows
Brisbane have- Freo, Us, Hawks, Crows, Cats, North, Pies, Suns, Eagles
We have - Port, Lions, Saints, Hawks, Sun, Giants, Freo, Doggies, Crows.
If we want pick one, we best be lining up against Lions with Crippa, Fish, Dow, Charlie, SPS, Simmo, all out with of the Flu or Gastro that week.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Certainly a starting point and immediate assistance to Cripps and the team. I would only consider a trade for Shiel if he announced he wanted out end of this year. Rather than some of the more bizarre suggestions of a trade scenario, such as Shiel & Kelly or Taranto, for pick 1, I believe we and other sides could still benefit

Example trade ONLY, if the deal was happening now.

3 Way Deal

Lions lose pick 2, 38 - Gain pick 9, 43, Lobb
GWS lose pick 9, 43, Shiel, Lobb, 2019 1st - Gain pick 1, 26, 38, Carton 2019 1st,
Carlton lose pick 1, 26, 2019 1st- Gain Shiel, pick 2, GWS 2019 1st

Lions - Get an immediate replacement for an aging Martin and still go to the draft to get a top 10 mid
GWS - While losing 2 good players, get pick 1 and an earlier pick in 2019
Carlton - Will either get Lukosius or Walsh, while adding Shiel. If we add other FA such as a Wallis etc and natural improvement in the squad, we could end up mid table in 2019, with GWS having to improve there position in 2019, losing 2 x best 22

Would take that very happily and skip off into the sunset

 

[NumberEight]

Would take that very happily and skip off into the sunset

hahaha there is NO way we could ever get a deal that good.

 

[BluesRule]

It's very unlikely we get pick one - check out the draws as follows
Brisbane have- Freo, Us, Hawks, Crows, Cats, North, Pies, Suns, Eagles
We have - Port, Lions, Saints, Hawks, Sun, Giants, Freo, Doggies, Crows.
If we want pick one, we best be lining up against Lions with Crippa, Fish, Dow, Charlie, SPS, Simmo, all out with of the Flu or Gastro that week.

Can we skate past STK also and get pick #3?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

One element of this I definitely do not accept is that Lukosius IN means McKay OUT. It does not and should not.

McKay - should he continue to develop - is a sensational forward/ruck option, which means we would only need to play one specialist ruckman for the foreseeable future.

Curnow - and from all reports Lukosius - are very mobile forwards who have the flex to play flanks, start on a wing, etc. Should it eventuate that we wind up with all those players on our list, that puts us in a sensational position from a gameday flexibility and match-ups point of view, not in a over-loaded position where we have too much of something.

Multiple match-up options? The ability to expose opposition weaknesses? Viable alternatives should injury strike? Can you IMAGINE having these things?!!?

But what if Mckay out meant Shiel in?? Does that change your view?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Geelong disagree

Brad Ottens says hiiii.

 

[ShanDog]

I like Shiel but I just don't see the point in this. Why not keep pick 1 and draft the best available, then throw the kitchen sink at a free agent like Gaff. Surely we have the salary cap room to front load a lucrative contract. We can then go after Shiel the year after when he becomes a FA. If Lukosius in the new Nick Riewoldt, you don't give away access to someone like that.

I suspect we'll have to trade for Sheil in the end anyway. Unless we wait for him to be an unrestricted FA.

 

[Arr0w]

hahaha there is NO way we could ever get a deal that good.

Not as one sided as pick 1 for Shiel and pick 9

Have another look

 

[footyfan1978]

It's very unlikely we get pick one - check out the draws as follows
Brisbane have- Freo, Us, Hawks, Crows, Cats, North, Pies, Suns, Eagles
We have - Port, Lions, Saints, Hawks, Sun, Giants, Freo, Doggies, Crows.
If we want pick one, we best be lining up against Lions with Crippa, Fish, Dow, Charlie, SPS, Simmo, all out with of the Flu or Gastro that week.

Gold Coast too, likely to not win another game, If we win 4 more games when Murphy, Marchbank and Pickett back probably pick 3 is our start in draft.

 

[Arr0w]

I suspect we'll have to trade for Sheil in the end anyway. Unless we wait for him to be an unrestricted FA.

Doubt GWS would be able to match some of the offers that would be tabled. If they did, they would have to cut other players

 

[BluesRule]

Not as one sided as pick 1 for Shiel and pick 9

Have another look

Good deal for Brisbane (if they need Lobb) and Carlton (if we do not rate Lukosius) - but will GWS really accept losing Lobb and Shiel? Salary Cap pressure would have to be very high to give up best 22 players while in the window.

 

[Nori]

Carlton lose pick 1, 26, 2019 1st- Gain Shiel, pick 2, GWS 2019 1st

Dylan Shiel is probably not worth what Collingwood paid for Treloar (picks 7, 7 and 65), but you'd have to think that he would be worth a top 10 and maybe a second rounder.

I haven't done the points but I reckon this deal would come up a bit short for GWS or one of the other parties.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Brad Ottens says hiiii.

I know right... but they did build a premiership via the draft. And it created them to stay so dominant for so long. What they did 15 or so years ago has held them in good sted. Pick best available each time. Create a strong team alliance. Do a trade if NEED be. We aren't at the need stage yet.

 

[Faz 2000]

But what if Mckay out meant Shiel in?? Does that change your view?

No it doesn't. Shiel is great and I want him, but midfielders are easier to come by. I think the right approach has been to build around the spine, and we've done that. OK, it means we suck this year, but it means we can find what we need over the next several years.

What I would NOT be in favour of is adding a King brother (200cm+) to McKay up forward. I think that makes it too top heavy. Curnow is a different cat and can coexist, as is Lukosius. Not that we're any lock to get him, either. It's all moot if we have pick 2.

 

[Big Red is back]

It's very unlikely we get pick one - check out the draws as follows
Brisbane have- Freo, Us, Hawks, Crows, Cats, North, Pies, Suns, Eagles
We have - Port, Lions, Saints, Hawks, Sun, Giants, Freo, Doggies, Crows.
If we want pick one, we best be lining up against Lions with Crippa, Fish, Dow, Charlie, SPS, Simmo, all out with of the Flu or Gastro that week.

Be surprised if we win a game so every chance we get pick 1

 

[Big Red is back]

Dylan Shiel is probably not worth what Collingwood paid for Treloar (picks 7, 7 and 65), but you'd have to think that he would be worth a top 10 and maybe a second rounder.

I haven't done the points but I reckon this deal would come up a bit short for GWS or one of the other parties.

prefer to take him a year later for free - if he wants to come surely better he leaves us with pick 1 or 2

 

[Arr0w]

Good deal for Brisbane (if they need Lobb) and Carlton (if we do not rate Lukosius) - but will GWS really accept losing Lobb and Shiel? Salary Cap pressure would have to be very high to give up best 22 players while in the window.

GWS lose pick 9, 43, Shiel, Lobb, 2019 1st - Gain pick 1, 26, 38, Carton 2019 1st

Basically rating the loss of both players for pick 1 compensation. Yet they have a crack at the best kid in the land this year and a top 5 - 8 next year