2019 Analysis

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Norm Smith Medallist
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#27
As mentioned previously we are #2 for total turn overs (thanks Melbourne) but only #10 for turn over differential (turn overs - intercepts).

A more useful/important stat is we have given up the second least points from turn overs after Geelong.

The Cats are conceding just 30.2 points per game off turnovers, with the next-stingiest side, Fremantle (41.7), coughing up more than 10 extra points.

The competition average is 48.8 points against on turnover, as a further indication of how impressive their efforts so far are.

I read this as supporting that we are turning the ball over a lot but doing so in our forward half (as opposed to in our back line). So we are not getting scored against as much from our turn overs but we are also giving up lots of opportunities to score ourselves.

Think it may have been Hughes (worth a listen if you haven't) who highlighted it in his post game presser on the weekend... We still need better composure when we are 60-70m out from goal. Do that and we not only drop our turn overs right down but we create a heap more scoring shots - more scoring shots means much higher scores and also more centre bounces where we have the #1 centre clearance differential in the AFL ;) There is a perfect storm brewing, and it all comes down to how we use the ball at half forward. Watch our ball use at half forward against GWS if you want evidence - we had 20 marks i50 against one of the best teams in the comp! Because we lowered our eyes heading i50. The other games (except against North) we haven't been nearly as composed imo.
 
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#28
Some fixture analysis:

I assess relative team strengths as: top5 (in no particular order) of Geelong, GWS, Eagles, Collingwood and Richmond, bottom 6 (in no particular order) Sydney, Carlton, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Gold Coast and Bulldogs.

Squiggle https://live.squiggle.com.au/# assesses the same as me except Port replaces Eagles in the top 5.

By both assessments we play 6 games against top 5 teams, 7 games against bottom 6 teams and 9 games against middle teams.

To date by my assessment we have played 2 games against top 5 teams, 1 game against a middle team and 3 games against bottom 6 teams. By squiggle assessment we have played 1 game against a top 5 team, 2 games against middle teams and 3 games against bottom 6 teams. So the fixture to date has been relatively easy.

After 11 games when we get to the bye, by my assessment we will have played 4 games against top 5 teams, 4 games against middle teams and 3 games against bottom 6 teams. By squiggle assessment we will have played 3 games against top 5 teams, 5 games against middle teams and 3 games against bottom 6 teams.

So at the bye my assessment says the worst of the fixture is done and the second half of the fixture is somewhat easier. The squiggle assessment is that the second half is a little easier than the first half.

Either way, if we can get to the bye at 6 and 5 (or better) without too much damage to the percentage, we are certainly in with a chance of finals.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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#29
To date by my assessment we have played 2 games against top 5 teams, 1 game against a middle team and 3 games against bottom 6 teams. By squiggle assessment we have played 1 game against a top 5 team, 2 games against middle teams and 3 games against bottom 6 teams. So the fixture to date has been relatively easy.
I'd suggest adding the home vs away to your analysis as well. In the first half of the season our away games are against better teams - the next patch of games seemed brutal prior to the season beginning. In the second half we play most of the bottom teams away and better teams at home. The squiggle has been a bit of a disaster this year so far - wouldn't be using it as a guide to anything personally. People mistakingly think it predicts the future whereas it only visualises the past.
 

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#31
AFL Player Ratings update as at end of Rd 6

Michael Walters #2 ranked in 2019, reclassified a MID/FWD from GEN FWD, #1 ranked MID/FWD
Brandon Matera #6 ranked in 2019, #1 ranked GEN FWD
Nathan Fyfe #11 ranked in 2019, #5 ranked MID
David Mundy #18 ranked in 2019, #9 ranked MID
Rory Lobb #46 ranked in 2019, reclassified a RUC from KEY FWD, #6 ranked RUC
Bradley Hill #68 ranked in 2019, #4 ranked WING
Luke Ryan #110 ranked in 2019, #16 ranked GEN DEF
Cam McCarthy #136 ranked in 2019, #7 ranked KEY FWD
Joel Hamling #156 ranked in 2019, #12 ranked KEY DEF
Matthew Taberner #239 ranked in 2019, #20 ranked KEY FWD

Take it all with a pinch of salt (it is just an algorithm that tries to summarise something very complex into a single value, so has plenty of flaws) but it's still pretty clear almost all our players are improving this year. Tucker, Langdon, Hughes, Nyhuis all heading in the right direction as well and could all easily break into the top players list for their position with a bit more consistency over the coming rounds. Wilson's best game by a mile against WB - hoping he can continue that form line from now on.
 

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#34
The round 7 free kick table:

table r7.JPG


Our progress:

frees r7.JPG


Points of note:

- we drew with Adelaide (first draw of the year),
- we've stayed on the same ladder position, with the same percentage (100%),
- we've received the fewest free kicks of any team so far, yet have conceded the equal second fewest free kicks
 

Tonga Bob

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#35
Round 8 table:

table r8.JPG


and us:

frees r8.JPG


Points of note:

- we rose four places on the ladder thanks to a one-kick win,
- we have still received the fewest free kicks of all teams despite receiving twice as many as Carlton (seriously though how does a relatively close game with no local bias end up with a 24-8 free kick count??)
- we've now conceded the fewest free kick, one fewer than the undefeated Western Bulldogs
- overall ladder variance (which measures the variance between game result ladder positions & free kick result ladder positions) is below 5. still trying to work out what this proves... maybe the lower the variance, the higher the correlation between winning free kicks & winning games of football? happy for someone to explain this more
 
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#36
Darcy tucker had 16 and 17 kicks in our 2 best performances of the year - North and GWS. He averages 6.5 kicks for all other games - i don't think this is a coincidence. We need to inject more class into the midfield.
 

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Tonga Bob

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#37
Round 9 table:

table r9.JPG


and us:

frees r9.JPG


Points of note:

- dropped from 10th to 15th on the ladder after losing to Essendon 16 frees to 18 (despite the lamentations of the Essendon supporters),
- still ranked 18th for both frees for and against,
- there's no more unbeaten teams after Geelong defeated Western Bulldogs 24 frees to 22,
- ladder variance rose from 4.77 to 5.77,
- Carlton lost by almost 100 points yet won the free kick count by 5
- West Coast lost a free kick count at home for the third time this year (admittedly one of those was against us), maybe umpires are developing an immunity to affirmation noises?
 
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Moderator #38
Darcy tucker had 16 and 17 kicks in our 2 best performances of the year - North and GWS. He averages 6.5 kicks for all other games - i don't think this is a coincidence. We need to inject more class into the midfield.
If you're defending Freo stoppages then you closely man Tucker and let Fyfe walk it out to kick. He will predictably kick to a contest inside fifty, I'm not sure I've seen him take a bounce and drive it really long.
 

Joao

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#39
- West Coast lost a free kick count at home for the third time this year (admittedly one of those was against us), maybe umpires are developing an immunity to affirmation noises?
I mentioned this on the main board earlier in the year. I actually think the umps have been instructed to be more aware of the Eagles crowd and if anything this year, they are overdoing it in the oppos favour. I have seen a few games where objectively, the Eagles got the raw end.
 

Tonga Bob

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#40
I mentioned this on the main board earlier in the year. I actually think the umps have been instructed to be more aware of the Eagles crowd and if anything this year, they are overdoing it in the oppos favour. I have seen a few games where objectively, the Eagles got the raw end.
Seems that way - West Coast are -2 for free kicks at home this year (we're -1). Looks like the affirmation noise effect is moving east: Western Bulldogs are +32, Geelong are +20, Collingwood are +11 and North & Gold Coast are +10. Richmond are worst off for home ground frees though at -18. Think I'll add this to the table for future weeks.
 
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#42
This season is far from over in my opinion. We still have the list and caliber of players to play finals and if these blokes actually pull their fingers out they can do just that. Still reckon we're a good chance at finals.
 

apuchar

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#45
I'm not sure whether to be happy or sad about our good ratings. We are supposedly doing all these things well and we still are not scoring and are beginning to lose winnable games again.
As for waiting for the forward line to start functioning well. There is a question mark as to how much it is likely to improve with the gameplan we are using. Certainly adding better kicks like Hill and Bennell would help a bit, but would it improve us enough for us to become one of the top sides in the comp. i.e. to be able to consistently kick a comfortably winning score.
 

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#47
Round 9 table:

View attachment 677268

and us:

View attachment 677269

Points of note:

- dropped from 10th to 15th on the ladder after losing to Essendon 16 frees to 18 (despite the lamentations of the Essendon supporters),
- still ranked 18th for both frees for and against,
- there's no more unbeaten teams after Geelong defeated Western Bulldogs 24 frees to 22,
- ladder variance rose from 4.77 to 5.77,
- Carlton lost by almost 100 points yet won the free kick count by 5
- West Coast lost a free kick count at home for the third time this year (admittedly one of those was against us), maybe umpires are developing an immunity to affirmation noises?
another interesting fact (to me at least) - this weekend's game between us & Brisbane sees the team which has been awarded the most free kicks this season play the team which has conceded the fewest free kicks this season, and the team which has conceded the second most free kicks this season play the team which has been awarded the fewest free kicks this season. classic 'irresistible force vs immovable object' stuff
 
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#48
Stats article on the AFL app for goal kicking percentages across different types of shots.

Was surprised to see we have one of the better set shot %s. Which makes it Disappointing to see the mark and play on stats. Wish people would back them self in and have a shot more often.



g



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Scham

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#50
Stats article on the AFL app for goal kicking percentages across different types of shots.

Was surprised to see we have one of the better set shot %s. Which makes it Disappointing to see the mark and play on stats. Wish people would back them self in and have a shot more often.



g



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pretty sure those stats don’t include shots that don’t result in a score i.e. fall short, out on full, out of bounds. We seem to have a lot of shots that should result in a score but don’t. It also wouldn’t account for the times a shot should be taken but the player tries a pass instead.
 
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