2019 Analysis

[Unique Name]

So we've beaten 5 of the top 8 sides which is great.
but
We've only beaten 4 of the bottom 10 sides.

Most of our Top 8 victories came when we had a fit Best 22. Injuries have killed the back half of the season for the 3rd year running. Are Brisbane just lucky with their injuries? Or are they managing their players differently to how we manage ours?

 

[eastfreo75]

So we've beaten 5 of the top 8 sides which is great.
but
We've only beaten 4 of the bottom 10 sides.

Most of our Top 8 victories came when we had a fit Best 22. Injuries have killed the back half of the season for the 3rd year running. Are Brisbane just lucky with their injuries? Or are they managing their players differently to how we manage ours?

Game style has something to do with it.

Fremantle has more contested ball and kms in the legs than Brisbane.

Plus, I think the new stadium surface is too hard.

Also, we travel more. West coast do the same amount of travel but are offset by a less contested game plan.

 

[FreoRicci]

Adelaide about to get smashed by Collingwood. Finals window open til the 1.5 round left.
All it needed was win against Carlton, or Gold Coast. 12/13 would've sealed it. A big win against Essendon would be nice.

 

[eastfreo75]

Injuries to key forwards had been our issue.

Look at the below table of wins and losses
Name. With them Without them
Hogan. 6-7 3-5
Lobb. 7-8 2-4
Cox. 4-4 5-8
Taberner. 4-5. 5-7

You could argue that Hogan going down early in the Melbourne is equal to not having him. Makes it 6-6 and 3-6

 

[Unique Name]

Sorry for the rudimentary paint job. Just showing how back to front we have been. For a team likely to finish in the Bottom 6 we shouldn't be beating 5 of the top 8 sides while losing to the bottom 3 sides. Of all our wins only the Brisbane win would be considered a lucky win, the rest were fairly comfortable. Our KPP injury crisis killed our season IMO. We had no tall players and were forced to play some barely WAFL standard players.

 

[PapaJ]

As this season comes to a close, was thinking about our more extended W-L record recognising that it's been 4 years since our last winning season.

Did a bit of extra maths and, win or lose next week, it will be our worst 4 year period in terms of W-L since 2002 (i.e. years 1999-02) ... that's a pretty miserable period. If we lose next week it will be our equal 3rd worst 4 year period matching the 1996-'99 seasons. The only worse 4 year periods are 98-01 & the 99-02 mentioned.

That's a sad few years either way you look at it. Perhaps the main reason some don't feel it as badly (at least I don't) is that these four years come after easily the most successful 4 year period ('12-'15) where we won over 72% of our games and the club is now relatively stable ... but that after glow is starting to fade even for an old timer like me

Here's breakdown with the one game to go:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]

[TH]4 Yr
Period[/TH]
[TH]% Games
Won[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]2012-2015[/TD]
[TD]72.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]2011-2014[/TD]
[TD]63.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]2013-2016[/TD]
[TD]60.92%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]2010-2013[/TD]
[TD]59.77%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]2003-2006[/TD]
[TD]57.95%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]2004-2007[/TD]
[TD]53.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]2014-2017[/TD]
[TD]51.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]2002-2005[/TD]
[TD]51.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]2009-2012[/TD]
[TD]47.73%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]2005-2008[/TD]
[TD]47.73%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]2015-2018[/TD]
[TD]42.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]2006-2009[/TD]
[TD]42.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

13​

[/TD]

[TD]2001-2004[/TD]
[TD]40.91%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]2007-2010[/TD]
[TD]39.77%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]2008-2011[/TD]
[TD]38.64%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]2000-2003[/TD]
[TD]37.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

17​

[/TD]

[TD]1995-1998[/TD]
[TD]36.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

18​

[/TD]

[TD]1997-2000[/TD]
[TD]34.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

19​

[/TD]

[TD]2016-2019[/TD]
[TD]33.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]1996-1999[/TD]
[TD]32.95%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]1999-2002[/TD]
[TD]27.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

22​

[/TD]

[TD]1998-2001[/TD]
[TD]25.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Nothing too advanced about this sort of analysis, I recognise that. And we can see with Unique Name's post above we are beating good teams, so maybe this is the bottom of the curve ... I sure hope so.

 

[Tonga Bob]

free kick table after round 22:



and us:



notes:

- how the heck did we get a +14 free kick differential from a 32 point loss? you guys must have had some last-game-plus-milestone-induced affirmation noise going on!
- this game is one of two outlier results for us, all others are within +/- 7 free kicks;
- people will look at our overall +10 and think we've been looked after (and in a way we have), but our individual free kick results over the year being 7 wins/1 draw/13 losses is more telling imho;
- umpires hate NSW;
- Western Bulldogs back on top, and Richmond finally off the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Tonga Bob]

final free kick table at the end of the home and away season:



how we fared:

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

final free kick table at the end of the home and away season:

View attachment 734129

how we fared:

View attachment 734130

I pointed out on the MB thread RE: free kick differential for the year about the Port game being an outlier, and that we should be on -1 if you removed that result

I only realised the Port game from R13 as being an outlier, however the Essendon game is also in that boat, as the closest is half that (+7). If you remove both of those games we are -15 which is probably about fair in terms of how we see our umpiring in general