Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[F_therest]

If we are optimistic and say we will win a flag in 2 years I don't think we need Plowman. Weitering, Jones, Marchbank, Casboult, + McGovern should go down there plus the younger key backs seem cover enough. If we go long term and say flag in 6 years we will have Weitering, Marchbank, McGovern plus the young guys we have now will be at their peak. Silvagni or Kennedy can play 3rd tall to support McKay and Curnow if need be but no reason those two aren't enough on their own. We should be doing something about getting value for Plowman while we can.
Same with SPS, Fisher and Dow. I don't know whether 3 guys who are so small by AFL standards can be in a 22 that wins a flag. All three are AFL standard but all 3 together do hurt in finals intensity games. Fisher is the one I would be looking at trading, Dow #2 pick and been ordinary this year but has great upside and SPS can do silky things other footballers can't.

Wowee

 

[thylacine60]

some people really need to be taken back to 2010-2015 and have their noses rubbed in it like naughty puppies..........

 

[F_therest]

Look, I don't have to understand and I don't care what the trade value of a player is. That is the domain of, not just our list managers, but also those who we may wish to deal with.

All I've been trying to say is that trading out one or more of our players to get someone who ticks a box with us has to be an option for our list management team and few on this board are prepared to recognise this. Too many think we'll change the world by just using draft picks and FA and totally dismiss the other option because "they're all going to be guns".

Put simply I am just expecting a wholistic approach on the trade table. Whether we can trade players or not is academic as long as all avenues are examined.

All avenues are examined, but none involving the likes of Fisher will even come close to eventuating so yeah...

And actually it's very possible we'll 'change the world' by using draft picks and FA acquisitions.

Yes we may need to trade a good player soon, but not yet. It will be because the players wants out to go back home or due to lack of opportunity.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Think it's been mentioned before but Fish and Crippa are best mates and living together. Just asking for trouble if we even raise the idea.

We've done so well to create a seemingly tight nit culture through some tough times, lets not compromise that just as the on field stuff starts to switch.

 

[Doro]

We have absolutely no need for someone like Bonar right now

I don't think that's an absolute. Pace, size and a lot of ability, just not getting games. Versatile enough to play in multiple spots.

 

[blue healer]

All avenues are examined, but none involving the likes of Fisher will even come close to eventuating so yeah...

And actually it's very possible we'll 'change the world' by using draft picks and FA acquisitions.

Yes we may need to trade a good player soon, but not yet. It will be because the players wants out to go back home or due to lack of opportunity.

Well let's just wait and see what happens shall we?

And I have never said anything about trading Fisher so yeah....

 

[F_therest]

I don't think that's an absolute. Pace, size and a lot of ability, just not getting games. Versatile enough to play in multiple spots.

Probably right, it's not.

But he's a pretty low priority i would have thought...another young player who hasn't played a game and coming off an ACL. We have plenty of young players coming through to get games into.

Given the trade assets and $$$ it would take to get him across (approx early second rounder + $350k), that could be better spent acquiring a mature player to fill a specific hole in our team.

 

[Doro]

Probably right, it's not.

But he's a pretty low priority i would have thought...another young player who hasn't played a game and coming off an ACL. We have plenty of young players coming through to get games into.

Given the trade assets and $$$ it would take to get him across (approx early second rounder + $350k), that could be better spent acquiring a mature player to fill a specific hole in our team.

The little of seen of him I'd be happy if we got him across. The knee concern will always be hanging over him though.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

We have absolutely no need for someone like Bonar right now

I’d argue that every side needs a player like Bonar on their list but he shouldn’t be in our top 20 targets. I’m more talking about trying to exploit other trades and get Bonar as somewhat steak knives if an opportunity arises. We shouldn’t be targeting him.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Well let's just wait and see what happens shall we?

And I have never said anything about trading Fisher so yeah....

I do understand where you are coming from and if we are truly chasing Hill and Papley than their is a very strong likelihood that they are going to demand a young player over draft picks and unfortunately for us we may have to choose to either let them go or pass on Papley and Hill. This is the problem when going after contracted players especially when they are both stars and in the top few players in their position in the AFL.

 

[Manhattanite]

I do understand where you are coming from and if we are truly chasing Hill and Papley than their is a very strong likelihood that they are going to demand a young player over draft picks and unfortunately for us we may have to choose to either let them go or pass on Papley and Hill. This is the problem when going after contracted players especially when they are both stars and in the top few players in their position in the AFL.

Not sure that’s true - the trend has been towards players for draft picks and then using those draft picks to get another player or better draft picks - two players being involved in a trade is less common now. Sure it can be a win win like the Wingard Burton trade but it’s cleaner and more common to get draft picks as currency and use that how you want. And with future picks there’s more currency available.




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[windows1]

Easily replaced. I mean kids like him come around every couple of .... Generations....

No. No they ****ing don’t.

 

[windows1]

Agree. I can't tell you how unfit and under developed this young group this. Think of any player we have drafted since the start of the rebuild and they all have massive improvement in them. Plus they are all growing together. That is what is exciting.

Speaking of Walsh....

Can he win the B+F?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Not sure that’s true - the trend has been towards players for draft picks and then using those draft picks to get another player or better draft picks - two players being involved in a trade is less common now. Sure it can be a win win like the Wingard Burton trade but it’s cleaner and more common to get draft picks as currency and use that how you want. And with future picks there’s more currency available.




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That’s the most likely scenario but it doesn’t take much for that to change. If Freo lose Langdon aswell no doubt they would ask for LOB for Hill. They then play hard ball and say a first and future second (which is likely if Adelaide beat us today).
Papley is the same, he is probably a top 3 small forward in the comp. it’s not hard to see them demanding a good young player and a pick. Sure if they have someone like Baker lined up to take Papley’s spot then if helps us.
What I’m really saying is these clubs have the whipping hand and it’s not that unlikely they demand a player or big overs in terms of draft picks. Maybe a player is the cheaper option.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Speaking of Walsh....

Can he win the B+F?

I’m not sure how our voting system works but if it’s one the rewards consistency over domination it’s not out of the question.

 

[Juddernaut08]

No. No they ******* don’t.

They do.

 

[Juddernaut08]

That’s the most likely scenario but it doesn’t take much for that to change. If Freo lose Langdon aswell no doubt they would ask for LOB for Hill. They then play hard ball and say a first and future second (which is likely if Adelaide beat us today).
Papley is the same, he is probably a top 3 small forward in the comp. it’s not hard to see them demanding a good young player and a pick. Sure if they have someone like Baker lined up to take Papley’s spot then if helps us.
What I’m really saying is these clubs have the whipping hand and it’s not that unlikely they demand a player or big overs in terms of draft picks. Maybe a player is the cheaper option.

Look at the history of trade values. Those are way overs. Possible? Yes. Likely? No, goes against the historical data.

 

[DangerousD]

I don't think that's an absolute. Pace, size and a lot of ability, just not getting games. Versatile enough to play in multiple spots.

Do you know why he isn't getting games? GWS have been stretched this year injury wise, is it form or is it something else? He is contracted still i believe, but his value would be low.

 

[Doro]

Do you know why he isn't getting games? GWS have been stretched this year injury wise, is it form or is it something else? He is contracted still i believe, but his value would be low.

Haven't been following the NEAFL but it might be a case of second year blues. Been a surprise on what he showed last year.

 

[DangerousD]

That’s the most likely scenario but it doesn’t take much for that to change. If Freo lose Langdon aswell no doubt they would ask for LOB for Hill. They then play hard ball and say a first and future second (which is likely if Adelaide beat us today).
Papley is the same, he is probably a top 3 small forward in the comp. it’s not hard to see them demanding a good young player and a pick. Sure if they have someone like Baker lined up to take Papley’s spot then if helps us.
What I’m really saying is these clubs have the whipping hand and it’s not that unlikely they demand a player or big overs in terms of draft picks. Maybe a player is the cheaper option.

I just don't think thats the landscape anymore, go back and look at the last 5 years of trading, there a very very few player swaps, mostly because a player has to agree to go to that particular club. The player might have been thinking of leaving and not even considered that club. A club also could spend all year identifying targets and have not considered one of ours. This is why its usually picks which are then used to bring in existing targets.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I just don't think thats the landscape anymore, go back and look at the last 5 years of trading, there a very very few player swaps, mostly because a player has to agree to go to that particular club. The player might have been thinking of leaving and not even considered that club. A club also could spend all year identifying targets and have not considered one of ours. This is why its usually picks which are then used to bring in existing targets.

That’s why I mentioned LOB if they lose Hill and Langdon then he is a perfect fit and they will ask the question. We most likely say no and they end up demanding overs to help them fill that gap.

Look at the history of trade values. Those are way overs. Possible? Yes. Likely? No, goes against the historical data.

Players always get asked for in trades. Like we did with Cameron and MM in Gibbs for instance. Didn’t we also try and get Tomlinson instead of pick ~10 for Geelong’s future first.
I’m saying they are going to ask the question than when we say no demand overs in draft picks. A player could end up cheaper than the picks we will be forced to hand over.

If I was Sydney and Carlton wanted Papley I go through and demand pretty much every good young player in return. After Carlton refuse to move you than ask for pick~10 and a future second.
It may then turn out cheaper to trade the player.



Personally I think our biggest problem is we are chasing two of the best players in their position in the entire league. I can’t see them being happy to trade them for just one non top 10 pick as it’s extremely unlikely they find a similar level player to play that position let alone have one available at that pick in the draft.

 

[blue healer]

I just don't think thats the landscape anymore, go back and look at the last 5 years of trading, there a very very few player swaps, mostly because a player has to agree to go to that particular club. The player might have been thinking of leaving and not even considered that club. A club also could spend all year identifying targets and have not considered one of ours. This is why its usually picks which are then used to bring in existing targets.

But if we trade a player to a third club and use the pick we get as part of a trade for the player we want, it is not directly player for player but isn't that exactly the result we may have originally sought?

 

[DangerousD]

f I was Sydney and Carlton wanted Papley I go through and demand pretty much every good young player in return. After Carlton refuse to move you than ask for pick~10 and a future second.
It may then turn out cheaper to trade the player.

This is how i see things playing out and im more than happy and willing to overpay to bring in the right player for our side, hopefully we would get a 3rd back or something.

 

[DangerousD]

But if we trade a player to a third club and use the pick we get as part of a trade for the player we want, it is not directly player for player but isn't that exactly the result we may have originally sought?

Im not sure why we would have to do that, we have 2 first rounders that we can use, 3 third rounders and one second rounder (this years picks and next). we have the currency to use picks only if we choose.

 

[Soapy V]

CLOSE THE THREAD

Our List is fine the way it is. No changes