Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[Aphrodite]

Anybody who believes Gibbs wouldnt be best 22 for Carlton is delusional , He is still a quality player with a good injury record and if simmo retires then he could be the perfect replacement and provide quality across the backline.

3rd rounder Carlton should snap him up 100%

We have moved on way past Gibbs.


Next .......

 

[RAPPA]

We have moved on way past Gibbs.


Next .......

Still best 22 though, assuming he overcomes the mental demons

 

[Iamcarlton]

Unload Lobbe and Phillips.
Adelaide pick for Papley and Cameron.
Cameron serves as Kreuzer backup until TDK is ready or he indeed grabs the position in his own right.
Casboult isn’t needed, an occasional run in the ruck to chop out Kreuzer will do McKay the world of good.
If Casboult can help deliver Martin it’s good for Carlton.

Know your not a fan of Cas RB but I think your going to be disappointed .
Given Casboults form this year and adding the defensive layer to his game this year id expect the club to now be looking at Casboult as a valuable player in a push into finals as early as next year .

His form has been undeniable to have a swingman like he's shown to be this year is invaluable .
Keeps this form going into next year and I don't see why he won't its players such as McGovern Marchbank and McKay that will have to lift their standards and improve to displace Casboult in the team imo .

 

[Bluey19]

Wonder what’s the guts of this trigger clause business re Casboult ?
If he triggers a clause does that make him automatically contracted for next season and thus tradeable ?
Maybe we could work him into a Martin trade with GC ...

Casboult absolutely stays

 

[Red Bull]

Know your not a fan of Cas RB but I think your going to be disappointed .
Given Casboults form this year and adding the defensive layer to his game this year id expect the club to now be looking at Casboult as a valuable player in a push into finals as early as next year .

His form has been undeniable to have a swingman like he's shown to be this year is invaluable .
Keeps this form going into next year and I don't see why he won't its players such as McGovern Marchbank and McKay that will have to lift their standards and improve to displace Casboult in the team imo .

Casboult has lifted his rating this year no doubt and that’s good for Levi and good for Carlton.
There is no way known however that Casboult rates ahead of Marchbank McGovern and McKay in Carlton’s list management planning going forward.
Age and ability just dictate that.
If the trigger clause status enables Carlton to enforce an automatic contract extension for next season, it is the best result for the club as it allows us to trade him for best return as opposed to minimum compensation via UFA departure.
Should GC make Casboult an attractive offer, I’m sure Carlton would assist Levi in cashing in at this point of his career via a trade.
Win for Casboult.
Win for Carlton.

 

[HARKER]

Controversial but would rather keep him and trade Mitch

It is our call but it also may not be our call in regards to Casboult.
We offer him another year as we have done so the past couple, or does he take a better offer elsewhere?
Levi is on very small contract this year and would well demand more and fair enough....but are we going to accomodate this?
Even if we 'had' Casboult for another year for triggering games played, he'd still be entitled to ask to be released and I feel we'd have to let him go.
I'm happy if Levi stays and happy for the club to let him go should he ask for too much by way of contract. No problem either way.

As for selling off McGovern - That's just not going to happen, therefore little point even speculating.

 

[Soapy V]

I’m super impressed with how Setterfield has changed body shape and fitness levels DURING the season.

We’ve been told for years that this can only be done pre-season - in season is only maintenance.

Clearly not true.

Imagine after a full pre-season.

Most clubs wouldn't change much during the season. Given our position and Russell taking over there has been a huge emphasis on getting players in better condition, developing them, setting standards etc. from day one

 

[Juddernaut08]

Most clubs wouldn't change much during the season. Given our position and Russell taking over there has been a huge emphasis on getting players in better condition, developing them, setting standards etc. from day one

I read an opinion that Pies tried to do this during their bye month and its backfired with fatigue and injurys

 

[Soapy V]

Analysis of the Carlton Oldies

Let's look at the possible net effect on the team as a whole from the oldies...positive/negative/neutral. Look at how important they are and what direct replacements we have waiting.

Murphy - The hardest to replace. He has been a gun and has suddenly stepped up to be an elite distributor of the ball. Unless we land someone like Coniglio, he will be hard to replace by say, 2021/2022. (-negative)

Simpson - Simpson has been a gun for many years, but if we do get Dochertyback (fingers crossed), that's still an upgrade. Simpson has been a little inconsistent this year and despite playing some great games, we can manage. Newman has been instrumental in this regard. (~neutral)

Thomas - DThomas has had his best year in awhile. Still, he is not in our best 10 players, and probably still considered in our bottom six as a back pocket/half back flank. I am of the view that someone like Stocker or SPS can fill his role in the medium term, and then exceed it (-minor negative/~neutral)

Ed - Ed is a beast. We are of the view that his gamestyle will hold up for at least 2-3 more seasons. He will be a big loss as our second best contested ball winner. There is no direct replacement who is not currently playing, but then again he's not that old(~short term neutral) (-long term negative)

Kreuzer - Kreuzer is a beast but we look to have him covered by the time he finishes up. He has been inconsistent both in form and missing games, so we are not reliant on him (see Phillips' destruction of the old-farts from South Australia last weekend). I think we have enough to cover him between Phillips and TDK by the time we need to move him on. I think he has a few years left though. (~neutral)

Casboult - Casboult is in my opinion the least of our worries. He is only 29 and appears to be peaking now. Probably holds this peak for 2-3 seasons. Nevertheless, we have such depth in the KPF position in McKay, McGovern and Charlie Curnow! Charlie has not been playing during this revival and most would say he's an upgrade on Casboult for the long term (~neutral)

Moving Forward/Conclusion

So what do we learn? We learn that from the old brigade, Murphy will be hard to replace in the next 2 years. We learn that Ed in a couple of years after Murphy will also be hard to replace. The rest should not affect us in the long run as we have ready made replacements/upgrades.

Essentially this means the rest of our youth needs to improve more than the negatives that losing Murphy and Curnow will have. You will note that our Forwards and Backs are largely unscathed due to the ready replacements.

It will all come down to the midfield. Can we match the output of Murphy and Ed once some of the youngsters improve:

Walsh
Dow
SPS
Fisher
LOB
Kennedy
Stocker
Cuningham

If the answer from this promising but unproven (except Walsh) is yes, Blues will be fine. If the answer is no, then you are right we will dip. Or we can just give a bunch of brown paper bags to Coniglio.

My opinion is always players over 30 don't improve and when they start to fade it happens quickly. A 32-33 year old may have a good year but they rarely back it up. Champions should always retire on a high or when they are still playing well.

I'm probably in the minority but I still believe we need to go past some of them asap. Not all at once but it needs to start happening. This is about flags NOT being okay.

People will be very surprised how others step up. Always happens and with the talent we have I have no doubt.

Stocker Gibbons will replace Murphy
Docherty SPS Williamson will replace Thomas & Simmo.
TDK and another recruit will replace Kruezer

IMO tough decisions need to be made this year and in 2020.

 

[Accidental genius]

we need to keep cas...he should be offerred a 2 year deal on a fair salary to keep him. i really doubt he would want to leave blues and he definitely would not want to go interstate to chase a 3 year deal. he plays in multiple positions and plays well, one of the best pack marks in the afl and is very durable. it would be crazy to off load him.

 

[Aphrodite]

Still best 22 though, assuming he overcomes the mental demons

Respectfully disagree.

 

[Juddernaut08]

My opinion is always players over 30 don't improve and when they start to fade it happens quickly. A 32-33 year old may have a good year but they rarely back it up. Champions always retire on a high or when they are still playing well.

I'm probably in the minority but I still believe we need to go past some of them asap. Not all at once but it needs to start happening. This is about flags NOT being okay.

People will be very surprised how others step up. Always happens and with the talent we have I have no doubt.

Stocker Gibbons will replace Murphy
Docherty SPS Williamson will replace Thomas & Simmo.
TDK and another recruit will replace Kruezer

IMO tough decisions need to be made this year and in 2020.

Murphy has been incredible though. As high as I am on Stocker SPS Dow LOB Fisher ... I am not sure there is a Murphy level player in those 5.

We need a 3rd A-Grader next to Cripps and Walsh. For me my hopes are in Setters

 

[Soapy V]

Murphy has been incredible though. As high as I am on Stocker SPS Dow LOB Fisher ... I am not sure there is a Murphy level player in those 5.

We need a 3rd A-Grader next to Cripps and Walsh. For me my hopes are in Setters

He has. I love Murphy. Been a great clubman. My question is always will he take us to the next level at 33? He should play on in 2020 but I hope they start to lessen his involvement in the middle and let players like Setterfield Fisher Dow Stocker Walsh Gibbons Cuningham etc take over especially if we land Coniglio. Not only for their own improvement but to develop as a group. IMO it's vital

I also expect significant improvement in our young group in 2020.

I don't want to see us winning in 2020 and our best players are always Murphy Thomas Curnow etc. We need to start seeing others being our consistent match winners.

 

[Healer]

Still best 22 though, assuming he overcomes the mental demons

On his day, best 22, not consistently best 22, and certainly not within the next 1-2 years.
How much risk do we want to take on the mental demons assumption ?
I'd be going thanks for the memories... at least the better ones.

 

[Soapy V]

Still best 22 though, assuming he overcomes the mental demons

Nope especially in 2020

 

[Juddernaut08]

He has. I love Murphy. Been a great clubman. My question is always will he take us to the next level at 33? He should play on in 2020 but I hope they start to lessen his involvement in the middle and let players like Setterfield Fisher Dow Stocker Walsh Gibbons Cuningham etc take over especially if we land Coniglio. Not only for their own improvement but to develop as a group. IMO it's vital

I also expect significant improvement in our young group in 2020.

If we get Coniglio we have to rethink and reshuffle everything.

He is a GAMECHANGER.

IMO if we get him Finals are a must and I'd say given such an even comp we should be looking to stay healthy and be a smoky contender.

Id then move Murphy to 70% forward/winger and 30% impact mid.

Kreuzer/Cripps/Walsh/Cogs as our main rotation supported by Curnow Murphy Setterfield Fisher SPS Dow LOB is right up there

 

[Soapy V]

If we get Coniglio we have to rethink and reshuffle everything.

He is a GAMECHANGER.

IMO if we get him Finals are a must and I'd say given such an even comp we should be looking to stay healthy and be a smoky contender.

Id then move Murphy to 70% forward/winger and 30% impact mid.

Kreuzer/Cripps/Walsh/Cogs as our main rotation supported by Curnow Murphy Setterfield Fisher SPS Dow LOB is right up there

Agree. Look at our side from last week and who is missing. Then add Coniglio Martin Papley and maybe 2-3 more players.

I am not trying to be disrespectful to any of these players and they have been great but IMO we certainly can't keep them or play them all and we need to move forward to be successful.

I also see Casboult Curnow Jones and to a lesser extent Kruezer and still important players for the next 2-3 years

 

[Tazblue]

I think it's time for Levi to go and possibly get himself a three year contract elsewhere, taking him to playing at 32 years of age.
I don't know as fact, but understand he's not keen on moving interstate and someone like The Bulldogs may suit him well.

Reason: Opportunities down back may close up and then things may get tight, up forward also.
We have our two key back posts largely locked down with Jones & Weitering now.
Casboult won't usurp McKay and CCurnow either and McGovern will also likely be favoured for his versatility.
I foresee TDK being weened into our 'system' soon enough also as a ruck/forward, so where does that leave Casboult?

I don't think the CFC will offer Casboult two years let alone three, so if he gets it elsewhere and stays in Victoria......It just seems right.


EDIT: There you go. I didn't read your whole post. Never mind....and I agree with you.

For various reasons Levi has been our most reliable forward this year and subsequently I’d be very reluctant to trade him.

 

[Keyza]

If we had some certain clarification on Casboult’s trigger clause status it would help discussion.

It has been reported that the clause is game based.
If he plays every game this year he reaches this.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Casboult has lifted his rating this year no doubt and that’s good for Levi and good for Carlton.
There is no way known however that Casboult rates ahead of Marchbank McGovern and McKay in Carlton’s list management planning going forward.
Age and ability just dictate that.
If the trigger clause status enables Carlton to enforce an automatic contract extension for next season, it is the best result for the club as it allows us to trade him for best return as opposed to minimum compensation via UFA departure.
Should GC make Casboult an attractive offer, I’m sure Carlton would assist Levi in cashing in at this point of his career via a trade.
Win for Casboult.
Win for Carlton.

Just don't agree that Casboult now will be used as trade collateral even if it were possible .
Form will start to dictate who's in and who's out as of next year imo rather than age has relatively dictated selection over the past 4 years .
We'll add some nice pieces at the end of the year get some players back and the squeeze for spots will be on .
McGovern will be 25 years old Marchbank will be into his sixth year on a list and McKay 5 if they don't perform they'll be playing seconds .
If Casboult keeps performing his swingman duties as well as he has been he'll be in
All about form now RB .

 

[RAPPA]

Will TDK be ready to play consistently as number 1 ruck next year? Can’t bank on 22 games from Kreuzer and I can’t see Phillips playing like he did vs the Crows in every game.

 

[Soapy V]

For various reasons Levi has been our most reliable forward this year and subsequently I’d be very reluctant to trade him.

Casboult can't go anywhere. We need him.

Playing great football, has minimum 2-3 years in him and can play KPF, KPB and Ruck.

Such a great player to have on our list and a great story. Must keep.

 

[Soapy V]

Will TDK be ready to play consistently as number 1 ruck next year? Can’t bank on 22 games from Kreuzer and I can’t see Phillips playing like he did vs the Crows in every game.

NO

I think we will have Kruezer, Phillips & D.Cameron as our Rucks in 2020 and TDK as a developing Fwd/Ruck

 

[Juice030103]

How we all feel about Kade...

 

[Red Bull]

It has been reported that the clause is game based.
If he plays every game this year he reaches this.

I understand this Keyza.
My question is, who has the ability to trigger the clause and extend the contract.
Player or club ... or both ?