AFL 2020 - AFL Round 11 (no aftertiming allowed)

[mookieb]

All sh*t aside this is the worst Pies side I've seen in more than 15 years, Crows at the line is a gift.

I thought this might have been a stupid off the cuff comment, but I just checked the teams and that Collingwood team is indeed horrific. If Crouch and Sloane were playing they should probably win. If I were Ade i'd tag Sidebottom with Keays - he's the danger to tear them apart.

Ade have only covered once this season so I won't be betting but they really should be able to get within 3+ goals.

 

[BloodRet]

Fogarty, Mihocek, Thomas ags @3.75

Think it's gonna be wet so betting with caution on the goal scorers. Thomas should be due to snag one or two in slippery conditions with Elliot and WHA both out.

6.50, 26, 101 for Thomas multiples which I'm liking.

 

[NYRB]

Collingwood without: Treloar, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Quaynor, Howe, De Goey, Pendlebury for tomorrow fixture on top of having a day less rest compared to Adelaide.Adelaide with 5 full days recover versus Pies with 4 full days to recover coming from Brisbane.

Adelaide were terrible in the 2nd half last Wednesday after a fairly competitive effort in the 1st half against the Dees and look fatigued.

Adelaide are 0 wins and 9 losses (from Rounds 2 to 10) in 1st halves this season losing the 1st half on average by 22.33 pts and losing 2nd halves by an average of 18.22 pts(from Rounds 2 to 10). I guess it also shows how bad this Adelaide outfit, if you lose by average around 40 points per match after the Covid restart. There is rain predicted for tomorrow night as well, which will make the ground dewy, wet and slippery. The handicap for tomorrow night is Collingwood -16.5 $1.90 v $1.90 Adelaide +16.5 pts.

last 2 matches for Adelaide the 2nd half aggregate:
Adelaide FOR : 31 points
Adelaide AGAINST: 118 points

Think this young Adelaide team could get exposed in the 2nd half, as I have a bit of doubt on their fitness and ability to run out games. Conceding 54 and 64 points in the 2nd half respectively in the last 2 weeks is concerning.

 

[Prochard123]

Is it just me or was Worpel ripped off a handball..?

This happens every game now, ChampionData's stats extremely inaccurate recently I can probably point to you 3-5 mistakes every game only basing on the few players I follow myself.

They are probably extremely understaffed, stat accuracy been shocking this year

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Think this young Adelaide team could get exposed in the 2nd half, as I have a bit of doubt on their fitness and ability to run out games. Conceding 54 and 64 points in the 2nd half respectively in the last 2 weeks is concerning.

Especially when one of those second halves was against North who are A-grade trash right now.

 

[NYRB]

Taken a bit of a play on

SGM: Over 112.5 points & 2nd Half to be Higher scoring half at $3.75 on Sportsbet with the Boost.


SGM: Collingwood To score 20 points first in 3rd Qtr & Collingwood to score 20 points first in 4th Qtr @ $9.80 boosted to $11.38 (with the boost)

 

[Robo87]

No Ben Reid in the team, Darcy Cameron should get Doedee, leaving Mihocek and Ruscoe to run riot.

i agree.
i only just saw Talia was out "managed". & means crows have an even weaker defence imo..
So yes liking Mihocek and Ruscoe..
I rekon 2 players could get 2g+ for the pies
tailing the Ruscoe and Thomas goals.

i also wonder if stephenson plays down back or forward or both?
( i saw 'Walker VS Stephenson h2h goals' has 'walker to win' @2.40 lads)

 

[ShaunWDT]

Especially when one of those second halves was against North who are A-grade trash right now.

Ill be all over their line if it keeps shortening, still think they'll get smashed.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Don't mind Grundy AGS, think hell rest forward with Cameron coming back, can get $4 if you shop around.

 

[NYRB]

I get this weird feeling this game could follow a similar pattern to the game against the Dees. Feel the Crows will be competitive for the 1st half but drop off in 2nd half. Home crowd, home ground, knowing the local conditions usually helps you out but it can only help you out so much. After 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter in the Dees v Crows game, I could see Adelaide run out of gas.

Adelaides named back 6: Brown, Hartigan, Laird, McPherson, McAsey, Doedee. Doedeee I think gets Mihocek as I see him being the best defender. McAsey is a bit inexperienced at this level, so he probaly gets Moore.

 

[Robo87]

McAsey is a bit inexperienced at this level, so he probaly gets Moore.

well learning from previous games... whoever gets mcAsey on them seems to have a field day...

 

[NYRB]

As i posted that last post, the spread for Collingwood Line has gone from -16.5 to -17.5 points at Sportsbet.

 

[OffTheBit]

I get this weird feeling this game could follow a similar pattern to the game against the Dees. Feel the Crows will be competitive for the 1st half but drop off in 2nd half. Home crowd, home ground, knowing the local conditions usually helps you out but it can only help you out so much. After 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter in the Dees v Crows game, I could see Adelaide run out of gas.

Adelaides named back 6: Brown, Hartigan, Laird, McPherson, McAsey, Doedee. Doedeee I think gets Mihocek as I see him being the best defender. McAsey is a bit inexperienced at this level, so he probaly gets Moore.

Are you talking about Darcy Moore? He's not even playing

 

[NYRB]

well learning from previous games... whoever gets mcAsey on them seems to have a field day...

To be fair, McAsey

Are you talking about Darcy Moore? He's not even playing

I should have said Darcy Cameron. My bad.

 

[Atavistic]

I'll get on Ruscoe for 1, 2, 3 and 4 goals at SB. Tailing Mounce and NP.

 

[Robo87]

1u SGM- ruscoe ags, Thomas ags , Laird15+ @4 lads
0.5u SGM- ruscoe 2g+, Thomas 2g+ , Laird15+ @45 sb powered

 

[Unknown Identity]

I wouldn't be taking the total points overs in any game featuring us.

Top score of 59 in our last 6 games.

 

[iluvparis]

Which of you guys abused the players lol?

View attachment 932360

Obviously didn't see the turd of a performance from Jageer O(verated) Meara last night - the AFLPA should disbarr him.

 

[md20]

I can only access Ladbrokes atm so the odds might be different elsewhere.
But Sier is $1.68 for 15+.
I know thats pretty short odds but I still feel like its overs (should be around $1.15/$1.20 IMO) and would work well in a multi.
Had 23 last game and I see him getting the ball a fair bit again.
Is there any insight I might be missing that could see him not hitting 15?

 

[squeaky1000]

I can only access Ladbrokes atm so the odds might be different elsewhere.
But Sier is $1.68 for 15+.
I know thats pretty short odds but I still feel like its overs (should be around $1.15/$1.20 IMO) and would work well in a multi.
Had 23 last game and I see him getting the ball a fair bit again.
Is there any insight I might be missing that could see him not hitting 15?

Yeah it’s great value, I was going to post it too. Solid multi filler as well. He’ll be one of their primary mids tonight

 

[NonPhixion]

Coll qtr time leader, MCrouch most disp Gr A, Sier 20+ $10.60 -SB

pies are yet to lose a 1st qtr,Crouch will run wild & Sier gathered 23 last week, no Treloar he will spend even more TOG

 

[Hellboy101]

Coll qtr time leader, MCrouch most disp Gr A, Sier 20+ $10.60 -SB

pies are yet to lose a 1st qtr,Crouch will run wild & Sier gathered 23 last week, no Treloar he will spend even more TOG

Sier most disposals group D - PB. @3.80
Up against Maynard, Crisp, Keays, Daicos.

SGM: Sier 15+, pies 3rd qtr & 4th qtr race to 20@ 16 Lads

 

[tangolikelama]

Coll qtr time leader, MCrouch most disp Gr A, Sier 20+ $10.60 -SB

pies are yet to lose a 1st qtr,Crouch will run wild & Sier gathered 23 last week, no Treloar he will spend even more TOG

Tailed

 

[JuniorWatch]

Sidebum/Adams 20+, Sier 15+. Stephenson AGS = $5.50 Lads
Lots of touches to be had at the pies in a small mid group. Feel like Stepho might find some form in this one.

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM Sier, Adams, Laird 15+ $1.95 lads