- May 20, 2016
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north have deadset given up, adelaide seem to put in a fight just don't have the skills
AFL 2020 - AFL Round 15 (no aftertiming allowed)
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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- Oct 6, 2011
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just noticed a big price difference for a 7 legged SGM multi at TAB paying $10, compared to Sportsbet same 7 legged multi paying $21.25 
for Hawks v Crows.
for Hawks v Crows.
- May 20, 2016
- 7,737
- 11,635
- AFL Club
- GWS
just noticed a big price difference for a 7 legged SGM multi at TAB paying $10, compared to Sportsbet same 7 legged multi paying $21.25
call consumer affairs
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Lewis 2+, M.Crouch most disp Gr1 & Murphy AGS $30.50 SB
Womboksgalore
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Jeepers, what is this on? On Bet Easy - apologies and thank you - value there!
Last edited:
- Oct 6, 2011
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also 0.50 unit SGM
15+ Disposals Keays
15+ Disposals Sloane
15+ Disposals O'Brien
15+ Disposals MacKay
15+ Disposals Schoenberg
Adelaide +12.5 line
Under 124.5 pts
@ $57.41 BetEasy
15+ Disposals Keays
15+ Disposals Sloane
15+ Disposals O'Brien
15+ Disposals MacKay
15+ Disposals Schoenberg
Adelaide +12.5 line
Under 124.5 pts
@ $57.41 BetEasy
Disagree with this. Lot's of variability in team performance and effort across games. Especially towards the backend of the season there's teams with far more to play for than teams with no hope for finals.
If you think teams are machines running at near 100% effort and motivation every game then why does the phrase "finals like pressure" get bandied about in big games? Shouldn't the pressure be the same in all games?
I know eagles like to monopolize the ball but not sure on the push for Merrett under 26.5 into $1.70, are we expecting Nelson to go to him? I don't think Heppell in will affect him,He's gone 36,34,24,30,33 past 5, with Heppell in you'd think Smith stays half back,still good odds 20 plus at pointsbet $2.10 n $6.00 25 some value,had 23 last week and didn't touch it final 5 mins
The players that get picked still put their all in individually. The motivation shifts from finals to keeping your spot/contract etc
North for example, clearly don't want to win as a club hence dropping Polec but the blokes that go out each game are doing their best...
Saying 'xyz' will want to win is just a throw-away line imo. Obviously they're not showing up to kick own goals and leave
- Jun 16, 2018
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Thoughts on behinds markets for the early match?
Word is the wind is picking up in Adelaide.
Can see either team collapsing in a heap and the other getting plenty of shots on goal in the second half.
.3u 13-15
.2u 16-18
.1u 19+
Also put on a heap of small bet multis on 25+ 30+ 35+ disposals for the main midfielders.
Based on you lot talking about it being a high possession match, Hawks leak disposals, etc.
Now watch the highest disposal winner ending on 27, everybody else on <23.
Word is the wind is picking up in Adelaide.
Can see either team collapsing in a heap and the other getting plenty of shots on goal in the second half.
.3u 13-15
.2u 16-18
.1u 19+
Also put on a heap of small bet multis on 25+ 30+ 35+ disposals for the main midfielders.
Based on you lot talking about it being a high possession match, Hawks leak disposals, etc.
Now watch the highest disposal winner ending on 27, everybody else on <23.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
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The point is trying to guess effort levels pre-game is generally complete voodoo
Every player no doubt wants to play well and win but I have no doubt some teams are incentivised more to play well or to win depending on their circumstances.
What I think is that AFL is very much a pressure game. If players efforts are 5% off then pressure drops and their game plan is compromised. Watch the final round with teams that need to win vs teams that have Mad Monday the next day.
Look at Brisbane Broncos in the NRL. I'm sure they aren't running out trying to lose, but they're also playing like they would happily end the season now.
Personally i'll be targeting teams that need to win for finals ramification and also looking for weak teams targeting achievable wins and then backing against them if they do win the following week (ie i'll be against Ade at the line if they win tonight).
Disclaimer: I don't bet on footy very often
But I did have a look at the disposal markets (particularly hawthorn players) for the game tonight
We've got no O'Meara and no Shiels, two players who play the vast majority of their time in the guts. Obviously someone's going to replace their roles. The market seems to have identified Scrimshaw as one who'll have a midfield role, but I'm leaning towards Wingard.
IMO Hawthorn's midfield will consist of - Mitchell, Worpel, Wingard, Cousins, Howe + Scully and probably Scrimshaw on a wing.
I think there is potentially value on Wingard 20+, and definitely think Cousins 20+ is more likely than Scrimshaw 20+.
Wingard 15+ @1.97 on BE, Wingard 20+ @ 4 on SB, James Cousins 15+ @ 1.40 and 20+ @ 2.75 on TAB is what I like from a Hawthorn disposals perspective.
But I did have a look at the disposal markets (particularly hawthorn players) for the game tonight
We've got no O'Meara and no Shiels, two players who play the vast majority of their time in the guts. Obviously someone's going to replace their roles. The market seems to have identified Scrimshaw as one who'll have a midfield role, but I'm leaning towards Wingard.
IMO Hawthorn's midfield will consist of - Mitchell, Worpel, Wingard, Cousins, Howe + Scully and probably Scrimshaw on a wing.
I think there is potentially value on Wingard 20+, and definitely think Cousins 20+ is more likely than Scrimshaw 20+.
Wingard 15+ @1.97 on BE, Wingard 20+ @ 4 on SB, James Cousins 15+ @ 1.40 and 20+ @ 2.75 on TAB is what I like from a Hawthorn disposals perspective.
- Oct 6, 2011
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Last time Mitchell played Adelaide in 2018, he picked up 40 disposals.
Matt Crouch last game in 2019 against the Hawks, he picked up 40 disposals.
So the posters earlier who mentioned these teams have lack of care for protecting in disposals has a point.
Matt Crouch last game in 2019 against the Hawks, he picked up 40 disposals.
So the posters earlier who mentioned these teams have lack of care for protecting in disposals has a point.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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By no means though I would be saying its a lock.
Just look at what the Hawks did to the Eagles in the West last year very late in the year, a 5 goal meaningless win against a team looking to secure a Top 4 finals place, home ground and flag chance.
- Oct 6, 2011
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Find it happens in a lot of sports soccer and basketball in particular. Teams with more motivation or with more up for stakes, often have a higher will to win (even against better opponents). I think Adelaide want to get that first win badly today and this Hawks team I think has put the cue in the rack for 2020. It's a chance to blood their youngsters in and give them a taste of footy this season.
FadingTheFave
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2u - Minchington ATG @ 3.00 (Lads) Good value for anyone who plays as a forward IMO and has hit the scoreboard in all 3 games. I think he will get more opportunity as a forward target with Breust/Wingard getting more midfield time without Shiels while Impey will replace Day at HB.
Would be rude not to include Lewis 2+ in a multi. Gone with Lewis 2+, Murphy AGS & Gunston AGS $12 BE.
For me it's speculating on a likely outcome and trend following. Speculation, however, is an imperfect science and outliers exist so nothings guaranteed or i'd be putting the house on some games. Coll played spoiler against Melb round 23 and nearly against Hawks (saved by Fitzgerald goal) twice but I think Hawks were still finals possible against WC (+ they were in very good form).
Shame this is wrapping up. They're all over Oscar Allen.
Yeah that's too good to ignore, I'm on him at Lads as well. Also think Hanrahan can get scoring opportunities. I've put a sneaky multi on Hanrahan AGS, Minchington AGS & Lewis AGS $14.19 Lads.
