AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

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Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
832
974
AFL Club
Adelaide
1u Simpkin most disposals (group b) @ $5.75 (lads)

Considering he was close to favourite in group A earlier in the season(think he started favourite at least once), this is a bit of a fall. He has battled for and injuries but this is a good price for someone who will still have a solid role in tonight’s game. WCE a bit lighter on personal than usual in the midfield, hopefully he sees this as a chance to end the season on a positive note. $3.60 on Sportsbet probably a fairer spot.
 

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
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they will flag your account and good chance they will ban you on these promos
The bookies logic is that a good customer is one that continually loses. Otherwise they dont want to know you, unless of course you take bets in markets that are against the public which helps them balance their books.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
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they will flag your account and good chance they will ban you on these promos
Maybe but I'm not a big betting man so I'm not terribly fussed if that happens.

I just put $50 on:

JJK anytime goalscorer
JJK kick 5 or more
WC win

Paying 11.25 boosted on sportsbet.

Those odds aren't as juicy as those posted earlier on JJK kicking 5+ i know.

But given WC winning by any margin and JJK kicking at least 1 goal are a fairly sure thing, and it's covered by the bonus bet- I think it's not far off a free swing at some cash if JJK goes nuts.
 

GROTTO

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WC to kick 3 or more goals in every quarter $13 SB special

can someone give me a good reason not to start obtaining as many accounts as possible to load up on this?
fremantle did this last week against North
Ideally you want to have as many relatives as you can find and set up an account and credit card number with them.

There is always an uncle or aunt floating around that can help you. :drunk:

Books probably get a bit suspicious when your 80 year old aunt is cleaning up and placing astute bets on SGM.:think:
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
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WC to kick 3 or more goals in every quarter $13 SB special

can someone give me a good reason not to start obtaining as many accounts as possible to load up on this?
fremantle did this last week against North
Which cockroach bashed this into $9 Glory be. I wanted a piece of action at $13.
 

demon_fanatic

Club Legend
May 8, 2006
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bayswater
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Melbourne
Anyone think the dead rubber hawks gold coast Match could take after last round matches of previous years and be an end to end shootout, both defences can leak at times and a few hawks farewells could give this an exhibition type feel to it.liking the 125.5 total considering pies gold coast played in dew and it Was pretty tight and contested and that still went 120ish,any other matches actual dead rubbers? Carlton Brisbane still has something to it yeh if Bris want to hold top 2 or have a shot at minor premiership if Port lose
 

GROTTO

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Anyone think the dead rubber hawks gold coast Match could take after last round matches of previous years and be an end to end shootout, both defences can leak at times and a few hawks farewells could give this an exhibition type feel to it.liking the 125.5 total considering pies gold coast played in dew and it Was pretty tight and contested and that still went 120ish
Assuming the thunderstorms dont tear the place down on AO, you would be onto something.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
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Hawthorn
Final round is normally the best betting round of the year, but the fixtures aren't great to be honest and it's very difficult to ascertain the motivation of some clubs. There is also some rain about and technically only 1 dead rubber I believe (Hawks vs GC). Bets I like:

2u WB -12.5 - WB have been dispatching the average to weaker teams with little problems. Plenty of motivation to win vs Freo who have had a great season. Can see Freo just playing out the game.

2u Rich SH margin - Can see Ade getting pumped here, having a flat spot after 3 great wins or alternatively can see them starting strong giving it a real crack then fading. Forecast to be wet so i'll wait to see if the line drops before betting. Ade faded in a few of their wins and the rain will certainly help Rich who are near unbeatable in these conditions and also need to win for top 4.

2u Geel spread across 3rd and 4th qtr lines and SH margin - again Geel have to win for top 4 vs a dead rubber for Syd. Geel are a good SH team and Syd are terrible (18th in 4th qtrs).

1u Melb -2.5 4th qtr - Must win game for Melb. They're the top ranked 4th qtr team. Ess currently a rabble.

1u Carl +26.5 - Dead rubber for Carl but they were embarrassed last week and I think they'll be keen to atone and finish the season on a high. Line seems quite high and Carl are normally pretty decent as an underdog.

Normally I would expect weaker teams like Ess, Ade, NM or Freo to be up and down at this stage of the season, but these teams of late have been in trend so i'm not super keen on betting that Ess or NM bounce back this week to salvage something from the season. Probably be better to bet on these teams live to get a look at what sort of pressure they are putting on.

Not keen on backing jekyl and hyde teams especially when they are playing each other (StK vs GWS).

Like the option of betting on a team with the chance the other team doesn't turn up or alternatively both teams turn up and the team I bet on covers anyway.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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Feel like the total match points line is about right for Kangaroos v West Coast. Will just sit back and watch for a bit of enjoyment tonight. The weather conditions without the rain should be as good as it gets for night footy. The match also starts a tad earlier at 7:10 PM, which has less dew than if it were to start at a 7:30 Pm or 7:50 PM bouncedown.
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
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PSA: Bet365 finally have their disposal markets back.

Also if you’re keen there’s an Arb opportunity available at the moment.

Tim Kelly 25+ @ bet365 $2.40
Tim Kelly Under 24.5 @ lads/neds $1.90

An example:
100 x 2.40 = $240
126 x 1.90 = $239.4

Guaranteed $14 - I’m limited too much with Ladbrokes to bother trying any amount, but thought it might interest a few.
 

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GROTTO

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1u Melb -2.5 4th qtr - Must win game for Melb. They're the top ranked 4th qtr team. Ess currently a rabble.

Not keen on backing jekyl and hyde teams especially when they are playing each other (StK vs GWS).
F**k me the four most shitty and unreliable teams here with Dees, Dons, Saints and GWS.

Its incredible that a team like GWS that is so flakey that IMO could win a flag with the quality and strength of their squad and yet be underdogs against a team that loses games against bottom 8 teams like Freo, Dees, Roos and really should have lost to Carlton as well.
 

NYRB

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West Coast play Metricon Stadium not so good in 2020. Won 4 quarters, Lost 16 Quarters.

Good luck to anyone on goals, or the line for West Coast. Fancy the Roos to snag at least a quarter or two.

Get this weird feeling the West Coast Eagles are thinking about 'what they will do in Perth tomorrow' once they arrive back and may be thinking about their mini break before the Finals.
 

GROTTO

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The weather looks ok for adelaide when hawks play gc?? 1:10 start , partly cloudy with a shower or two possible only 0-3mm rain,the storms are for sat morning and arvo
Im no meteorologist, but its raining heavily the day before and the day after and even on the day of the game itself.

Mind you you shouldnt be relying on the weather to miss or hit a bet. Im saying that for me here, not you.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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The value bets for North v Eagles

1) North to win 1st Qtr @ $3.75
2) West Coast to score between 0-60 points @ $3.75
3) North to cover the +7.5 1st Qtr Handicap and be the first to get to 10 pts in 2nd qtr paying $7.80

If West Coast want to smash the Roos, they could do it but don't think they feel the need to do it . They have a horror injury list and will just want to get out of this game unscathed. A full 2 week recovery should be plenty of time to get their major stars back. No Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Jamie Cripps and McGovern for this game . I reckon they get them back for the first week of finals.

They won't overtake Geelong on percentage, and will rely on Richmond losing to get a Top 4 spot or Geelong to lose. ( I personally can't see both happening). A 10 goal win is just as good as 1 goal win tonight. I just beware of backing the margins for a team that doesn't really need to win big.
 
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NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,880
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
West Coast play Metricon Stadium not so good in 2020. Won 4 quarters, Lost 16 Quarters.

Good luck to anyone on goals, or the line for West Coast. Fancy the Roos to snag at least a quarter or two.

Get this weird feeling the West Coast Eagles are thinking about 'what they will do in Perth tomorrow' once they arrive back and may be thinking about their mini break before the Finals.

As a neutral spectator, I think we would all love to see goals, possies and an exciting match. I mean its Thursday night football. I just not sure where will see it tonight.
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
832
974
AFL Club
Adelaide
1u Simpkin most disposals (group b) @ $5.75 (lads)

Considering he was close to favourite in group A earlier in the season(think he started favourite at least once), this is a bit of a fall. He has battled for and injuries but this is a good price for someone who will still have a solid role in tonight’s game. WCE a bit lighter on personal than usual in the midfield, hopefully he sees this as a chance to end the season on a positive note. $3.60 on Sportsbet probably a fairer spot.
Adding 2.5u to over 17.5 disposals @ $1.70 (PointsBet)

Most CBAs last week too may I add to this. Role still there, output coming tonight 🤞
 

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