AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

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mac23

Debutant
Aug 11, 2018
122
146
AFL Club
Melbourne
Different route tonight;

4u First half highest scoring half @ $2.02 (lads)

Love hitting up some statistic based bets. Still priced for something that is traditionally more common to happen in the second half. At the Gabba we’re 19-10 (65%) on first half being the highest scoring half this season. Digging deeper, Port have kicked 55% (2nd ranked) of their points in the first half and Collingwood have gone at 54% (3rd ranked - tied). No rain predicted tonight, but expect the dew to make the game more difficult as it progresses. Depending on how the game plays out, possession may be held for longer period later in the second half too.
Rode this one home with you mate, great shout
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,457
1,436
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
my thoughts for Port v Collingwood:
short summary-
Port has had the least points scored against them this year. #1 defence
Collingwood have struggled to post higher scores- They have only scored over 60pts in 7/16 games. port are 12/16 for 60pts for.
=
my prediction -collingwood to be held to a lower score and port to probably win.
1u pies under 55.5 @1.87 tab
1u port -6.5 @1.91 sb
0.5u sgm- pies under 55.5 & power -7.5 @2.48 lads
✅ and ✅
 

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Checkered

Club Legend
Oct 21, 2015
2,318
4,531
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Dockers & Eagles
First active post basically ever. Sportsbet punter. Have been riding the 3 leg SGM for the season. Have a system, whereby find 4 or 5 things and mix them and match them to around 5 or 6 bucks odds. Have done reasonably well. Rarely look at the goal kickers, find there is usually a few on the 15+ line that appeal. Anyway, tonight Rozee is the anchor for 15, along with the pig. Buckley never tags blokes who don’t damage. See the history with him letting Mitchell go for 50 possession games back to back. And then because it’s a good weekend I’m looking for the Hail Mary. So throw in other legs like Rockliff disposal line, and maybe bonner for 15+, but the one that might make you rich is:

Rozee 15+
Rockliff most touches grp A
Hoskins Elliott 2+ goals.

Boosted on SB to $101.
Thanks for the Rocky tip love your work
 

LukeParkerno1

Premium Platinum
Sep 23, 2005
117,465
46,194
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Sydney Swans
5.50 on Sportsbet i think it was.

That first time poster brought it up in his post before the game as part of his multi. I didn't copy his multi but it stole that leg and it worked out so shouts out that dude.
Put Treloar as a Group A in my multi, had Rockliff as the danger...Treloar just didn't stat pad as usual...

Power Pepper is dead to me, the only leg that couldn't get 15 disposals least I would have got a bonus bet back!
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,668
16,119
AFL Club
St Kilda
What if a player is shoe in for 2+?

Using your logic, you get a free hit for 3+, by backing AGS and 2+ when the promos are available.

Keep doing it.
See what I meant about no one ever really being a 'shoe in' for kicking multiple goals.

FYI, last night's 3 multis resulted in 1 outright win and 2 losses, but both losses snagged bonus bets back.

This means that all 6 of my 'sure thing' legs got up last night.

That meant that all up, after 8 multis for the round the scoreboard reads:
4 outright wins,
4 losses- 3 of the losses got bonus bets back.
So only 1 multi out of 8 where at least 2 legs didn't get up.

Can you see how that would very quickly change if you go chasing too much value in the 'sure thing' legs?
 
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