AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

[balmainforever]

 

[GROTTO]

I think Eagles will win because they will kick more goals than the Kangaroos.

Roos players, may come out at the first bounce with thongs, tshirt, towels, chairs, cigars and cocktails for this match.

Pick 1 is absolutely gone if they win tonight.

Tigers should break the Crows on Saturday, but hey the pressure is real for some players to not get injured and risk not playing finals. Crows at home too.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Probably the worst round of the year to bet on historically, likely to have a spell this round.

 

[langdon19]

Probably the worst round of the year to bet on historically, likely to have a spell this round.

Best round to fill your boots imo

 

[md20]

J. Waterman 2+ $3.30
O. Allen 2+ $3.25

Coming up against North those prices should be around $1.10

WCE - 36.5
J. Waterman 2+
O. Allen 2+
$16.75

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[NYRB]

North at the line look a bit big to me at +36.5 points

West Coast haven't blown teams away in QLD and Metricon tends to be dewy at night. Eagles to win but keep it under the line.

 

[NonPhixion]

North at the line look a bit big to me at +36.5 points

West Coast haven't blown teams away in QLD and Metricon tends to be dewy at night. Eagles to win but keep it under the line.

North Melbourne represent blue & white striped witches hats and some of the coaching tactics are very questionable. I think they will get completely blown off the park.

 

[GROTTO]

North Melbourne represent blue & white striped witches hats and some of the coaching tactics are very questionable. I think they will get completely blown off the park.

The only concern I have is whether the Eagles can cover the line.


By quarter time.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Richmond and Geelong to win @1.50 on Lads, free money? Both have to win to secure top 4, playing ordinary teams. Throw in West Coast for $1.62.

 

[5 Bucks]

Richmond and Geelong to win @1.50 on Lads, free money? Both have to win to secure top 4, playing ordinary teams. Throw in West Coast for $1.62.

Throw in Brisbane to beat the team that just got pulverised by Adelaide. Bris can put the pressure on Port to beat Collingwood and potentially claim top spot.

Prize for top spot looks to be not having to play Richmond first up.

 

[GROTTO]

Throw in Brisbane to beat the team that just got pulverised by Adelaide. Bris can put the pressure on Port and potentially claim top spot if they do a real number on Carlton.

Bris at the line absolute certainty.

Port have nothing to gain from winning or losing v Pies. Well aside from momentum.

There have been teams that have performed poorly in the final round to go on and win in Week 1.

 

[5 Bucks]

Port have nothing to gain from winning or losing v Pies. Well aside from momentum.

There have been teams that have performed poorly in the final round to go on and win in Week 1.

I think Port are the kind of club that wants all the accolades it can manage so minor premier might seduce them.

Although maybe it's better to finish 2nd and play Richmond while Lynch is out with his hamstring?

 

[iluvparis]

I think Port are the kind of club that wants all the accolades it can manage so minor premier might seduce them.

Although maybe it's better to finish 2nd and play Richmond while Lynch is out with his hamstring?

I'd be trying to avoid the best side in the league for as long as possible and hope someone else beats them.

 

[GROTTO]

I think Port are the kind of club that wants all the accolades it can manage so minor premier might seduce them.

Although maybe it's better to finish 2nd and play Richmond while Lynch is out with his hamstring?

I'd be trying to avoid the best side in the league for as long as possible and hope someone else beats them.

Port supporters would rather play the Tigers, because you know they think they beat them earlier this year at AO.

I definitely think Port beating the Cats is more doable than the Tigers in 2020.

Ironically there is a final 8 permutation, where a scenario exists that Port can win the flag without have to play either team to win it.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u North Melbourne +36.5 $1.90 (SB)

Missed the +38.5 (biggest opening line of the season) flying around earlier, and into 34.5 most places now.
Dewy conditions in play up at Metricon which should bring these two sides closer together.
Percentage not in play for the eagles, so for them it’ll be a get the job done and put the stars on ice operation. Definitely no risks to be taken with the large injury list and guys like Nic Nat needing to be managed.
Pick 1 is the crows’ and I don’t buy into the whole “tank for pick 1” arguments. Shaw will be giving the boys a big gee up this week and try take something away from the final game of the season. Pressure on a few guys who’s form has been far from their best. A positive performance is a must.
Eagles 1/6 record away from home is also to be noted, and going back through the archives you need to go back to round 2, 2018 to find a WCE covering this line away from home.

 

[GROTTO]

2.5u North Melbourne +36.5 $1.90 (SB)

Missed the +38.5 (biggest opening line of the season) flying around earlier, and into 34.5 most places now.
Dewy conditions in play up at Metricon which should bring these two sides closer together.
Percentage not in play for the eagles, so for them it’ll be a get the job done and put the stars on ice operation. Definitely no risks to be taken with the large injury list and guys like Nic Nat needing to be managed.
Pick 1 is the crows’ and I don’t buy into the whole “tank for pick 1” arguments. Shaw will be giving the boys a big gee up this week and try take something away from the final game of the season. Pressure on a few guys who’s form has been far from their best. A positive performance is a must.
Eagles 1/6 record away from home is also to be noted, and going back through the archives you need to go back to round 2, 2018 to find a WCE covering this line away from home.

The thing with those conditions we saw on Monday night, it definitely does not suit the Eagles modus operandi of their game plan.

I would have thought taking the Eagles 1-39 may have been better?

 

[Ohh Ok]

The thing with those conditions we saw on Monday night, it definitely does not suit the Eagles modus operandi of their game plan.

I would have thought taking the Eagles 1-39 may have been better?

Yeh I’d take the 1-39 if you were confident that the Eagles Win, I’m not 100% sure that they do. No way am I saying that the Kangas Win here, but I do think the conditions favour them more than WCE. This play should beat the closing line which is always a key, and I have the slightest inkling that we could see Nic Nat managed come selections.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeh I’d take the 1-39 if you were confident that the Eagles Win, I’m not 100% sure that they do. No way am I saying that the Kangas Win here, but I do think the conditions favour them more than WCE. This play should beat the closing line which is always a key, and I have the slightest inkling that we could see Nic Nat managed come selections.

Their last credible performance was about 6 weeks ago v Lions, mind you the Lions if they kicked straight win that game by 4-5 goals. This game IMO should play out in a similar manner to the Pies v Suns, arguably a very similar match, with the Eagles better than the Pies and Roos much worse than the Suns.

North wont play for the spoon, but they wont take risks on anyone either, I cant see anyone coming back into the team to make a difference here.

I dont hate the bet, Im just offering a different viewpoint. I wouldnt be totally shocked to see NN out or may another gun mid rested of theres, but its a risk. Esp if they believe Crows could cause the upset of the season, which they wont, then again I was too gutless to back them to win the last three. That was poor punting on my part.

 

[Robo87]

Yeh I’d take the 1-39 if you were confident that the Eagles Win, I’m not 100% sure that they do. No way am I saying that the Kangas Win here, but I do think the conditions favour them more than WCE. This play should beat the closing line which is always a key, and I have the slightest inkling that we could see Nic Nat managed come selections.

well, if you think North can kick some goals to stay in the game there is value in north's gs.. i dont think north can win it tho, but i think it'll be closer than 38pts, more around 15-25pts margin (which i guess would make wc 1-39 not such a stupid bet.)

 

[md20]

If you think North can kick goals, T. Garner is the stand out for me.

AGS $2.50
2+ $10

Decent forward who hasn't been able to play consistently due to injury and troubles off field if I remember correctly.
Had atleast one scoring shot in 7/9 games last year and scored a goal last week in his first game for the year.
His odds should be closer to Larkey and Zurhaar who are around $1.50 for AGS.

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[Sketi]

Best round to fill your boots imo

Feel like sharing any standout total bets with us humble forum folk bruz? CBF joining the facebook group, especially this late in the season

 

[maskmcgee]

Throw as many tens of thousands on WC as possible, they have everything to play for, North have nothing to play for and can't win regardless.

 

[GROTTO]

Throw as many tens of thousands on WC as possible, they have everything to play for, North have nothing to play for and can't win regardless.

If it worked that way the Eagles would have beaten the Hawks at home last year.

 

[maskmcgee]

If it worked that way the Eagles would have beaten the Hawks at home last year.

Key differences are the Hawks were actually capable of winning, North aren't, and Hawthorn had an outside chance at finals to play for, while for North it is beneficial to lose by as many points as possible.

 

[iluvparis]

Key differences are the Hawks were actually capable of winning, North aren't, and Hawthorn had an outside chance at finals to play for, while for North it is beneficial to lose by as many points as possible.

What about when the hypelords got rolled by Collingwood? in 2017